Crazy moves

Did Obama bail out the credit card companies??????????? Those stocks are doing some crazy moves

Very Serious statements

Are Wall Street mega-banks so powerful and sprawling that they threaten our entire capitalist system? That's the claim being made by one top Federal Reserve official.

In a speech at New York University Monday (pdf), Thomas Hoenig, the president of the Kansas City Fed, argued that the biggest and most complex banks are "fundamentally inconsistent with capitalism." His remarks came just two days after global banking regulators agreed to require big banks to hold onto extra capital in order to reduce the risk of bank failures like those that occurred during the financial crisis of 2008.

"So long as the concept of a [systemically important financial institution, or SIFI] exists, and there are institutions so powerful and considered so important that they require special support and different rules," declared Hoenig, who is known as a hawk on monetary policy, "the future of capitalism is at risk and our market economy is in peril."

That's because, he argued, the existence of banks that are understood to be "too big to fail" distorts the functioning of the free market. "For capitalism to work, businesses, including financial firms, must be allowed, or compelled, to compete freely and openly and must be held accountable for their failures," Hoenig said. "Only under these conditions do markets objectively allocate credit to those businesses that provide the highest value."

The financial reform legislation passed by Congress almost a year ago was intended to ensure that banks could never again grow so large that a collapse could threaten the global financial sector, forcing taxpayers to come to the rescue.

But things haven't worked out that way. "Now, with their bailout costs amounting to billions of taxpayer dollars, SIFIs are larger than ever," Hoenig said.

Hoenig proposed rules that would prevent banks that take deposits from making trades--a shift away from the financial supermarket concept that has proliferated since the 1990s.

The new capital requirements were agreed to by the Group of Governors and Heads of Supervision (GHOS), an international group of banking regulators meeting in Basel, Switzerland, this weekend. If the new rules are approved at the G20 summit in November, they'd force big banks to keep an additional 1-3.5 percent of extra capital on hand, so they'd be better able to weather big losses.

Another rule agreed to previously, with a similar goal, requires all banks to hold a minimum of 7 percent core capital at all times.

Not everyone thinks the new requirements, which even if approved won't go into effect until later in the decade, will make much difference. Slate's Bethany McLean argues that capital requirements wouldn't have prevented the 2008 crisis. But Felix Salmon of Reuters counters: "[W]hile the Sifi surcharge won't stop banks growing to the point at which they have to be bailed out in extremis, it might make such growth significantly less profitable than it was in the past."

What's clear, though, is that almost three years after a financial crisis that plunged the world economy into a deep hole and nearly brought down the global financial sector, there's little reason to believe the same thing couldn't happen again.

Volume

Though we are going some upside the volume is really low and that has me on the sideline.

Kass

Dangerous Market

Dangerous market squeezed the shorts then sold off- I think we should trade down in the overnight to that 163 level but really not sure- The markets are in whip lash mode here

1269

Still trading around 1269 so it makes it tricky to analyze what is going on. Presently we are trading at 1269.5.

1269

Solid break through these levels. Very tricky action here 1262 must hold into the close for the bulls to form a bottoming pattern

Weak Action

Weak action continues looking at 1269 for a pause in the downside

Range

I think we will be in a range here for a bit- Higher end is 1305 and lower end 1241, both area are HIGHLY playable

Bounce

Bouncing a bit but I don't buy it- look to see if we hold the 1265 level and then 1262 if not we will revisit the lows

Perfect continue

This is a great setup happening here- I am just going to be patient. We should test the lows from last week and that area I spoke about in past post.

Perfect!!

The last hour of trading cascaded today. As I posted earlier this would make a nice set up into the pre holidays period to set up a highly tradeable bounce. Overnight I am hoping we hold 1274 level so we dont get immediate selling but if we do this would confirm a retest of last week lows and possible that 1241 target for a buy.

We will see soon enough

Paint Drying

So here watching this market is virtually like watching paint dry and then I forgot it was FED announcement day which is always an extremely low volume day prior to the announcement.
So what do we have here in the market. Well I am going on record to say we will go higher after the next pullback. My projections are telling me we are in the throws of a intermediate low and I was HOPING for us to test 1241 on the downside but I forgot we had FED meeting this week and usually that has an upward bias.
What I am hoping for here is a sell the FOMC meeting news either today or tomorrow and test the lower boundaries of the last push as this would set up a super buy. Why a super buy because I strongly believe the Bernanke will say something about QE2 which will cause some initial anxiety but then analyzed as positive.

Point here I am gaining confidence that we will get a SIGNIFICANT bounce. If I am wrong when I do buy I will know quickly and get out for a small lose. In the mean time I will wait it out.

Expiration today

Also per usual nothing doing for me today with expiration. Most manipulated trading days!!!

1239-1241 just as a heads up will be my buy zone for the market or the first week of July

UGLY

Market is so trying to beat me in UGLINESS. Geez Nasdaq is ugly

Rally ??????????????

So all of yesterday's rally is gone. This is one bearish situation and that's why I am doing NOTHING. watch for a break of 1261 then minor support @ 1258. But really target seem to be 1241

Broken

Well they just broke that 1261 lows from last week- Not looking too promising here for longs- not much support till 1250 then 1241.50

1261.75

that was friday's lows - we just 4 points above. if we break there watch out below next really support is 1241.50

Six weeks

Six weeks down - does this make 7?? Who knows, I will be carefully looking at the volume this week. I will be out from thursday to next week wednesday so posts will be limited only if something breaks huge. Key here folks stay out of longs everything is bearish and now we are 100 S&P points lower from the Bin Laden rally. As always those huge events were a perfect turn around point in the market.

OK

This is the next number down that 'Should' be a decent bounce: 1242.

New Lows

One ugly market here- we have 3 hours left and we are 1 point above the lows of the day. Bear flag here seem like it will go lower

Opps

opps so 1269 didn't hold long. We sliced through it easily but the close will be the true confirmation there.

BINGO

Bingo - hit and now bouncing a bit - now how far do we get

Very Close

Moving very close to that 1269.50 .

We hit 1270.75 so far. They will try and defend that 12000 level for the DOW so expect a bounce

1269

1269 would put us sub 12000 on the DOW. We struggling here even with a gap down to get a footing.

1269

watch for support there

Overnight lows

We trying to attack overnight lows here

Futures- Rollover

Futures rollover makes today hard to call. I would still be looking for some movement higher based on the short term oversold conditions but you never know. For now I am looking at how low we can go for a long trade on the way back up, which I believe is the bigger plan

Hmmm

I really thought after hitting the 1275 level in the overnight session on the S&P they bulls would mount a reactionary rally but seem we are stuck in the mud here. Breadth is horrible here and that might be the underlining reason.

Banks

Banks look like they are shot in the head. Well everyone knows my sentiment on them. I jus don't think they will ever be profitable like they once was, NEVER. Trading is down 30% from last year and this has made the giant Goldman to be under severe pressure.

Not good

Not looking good for the bulls right here- We hit the 1294 and came within .5 points of 1296 but we just dived in the last hour. Look for next support maybe overnight @ 1279 if we continue to head down.

Turn Around TUESDAY

Well possible we get the usual turn around Tuesday today. We are dramatically oversold and volume on the downside yesterday was pathetic. Watch for us to hold yesterday's low if we venture there and then watch on the upside watch 1294 wish I think they will hit today to keep the bulls from totally running over.

1296 will be the closing number to watch on the upside to give the bulls some saving here.

1290

below the 1290 again. Still pathetic volume today so I am not all that confident to say we will push hard on the downside.

1284 should be the next stop if we break low of day

1290

Quick dip below now above but a 1290 close would be devastating for the bulls.

Ugly

Market can't get over the hump- careful if we hit below 1290

April lows

Market just tested the April's lows of 1290. Lets see what happens

1293

Bulls must close above this number today or the next target down is 1247!!!
Because I don't think the bulls will lay down for us to just dive 50 points I am going to have a upward bias today anywhere around the 1290 level for a buy.
Does it hold for more than just a reactionary bounce, who knows! I think 1247/50 is in the cards now BUT as I have been saying I would be buying heavily at those levels especially if those talking heads start saying it is the end of the world :) (remember they are always long)

BINGO

1295 HIT - POSTED HERE YESTERDAY . - Not looking so great for the recovering

Downside

1295 is the projection on any further decline

Charts

Looking at some charts over the last hour and I must say we could be in for a rough ride after today's action. It is entirely possible I could be wrong and we have seen this type of action before but this could be the beginning of a mild sell off. The main number to watch is last week's S&P lows with volume behind it.
If you are long I suggest going flat here to see what shakes.

Dive

This is why I am not forcing anything here. We just meandering in a tight range between 1310 and 1350 but today's action seem to be breaking to the lower end of the range.
Data has been weak actually very weak. Geez they thought housing was going to come back. I said that 3 yrs ago housing is DEAD, no rebound forget a bout it as they would say.
Two hours left in the day watch 1317 area for some support if we get there also I do have a projection from last week of 1295 if we do continue to drive down.

So up yesterday strong and down today strong- SEE SAW action. Stay out

One week later

One week later and the markets are at the same level. Patience here but one thing I will like to note on is the volume. We are going to break one way or the other soon when volume comes in but it is my opinion this break will not be the defining more of the market.
So if we break lower I would be a buyer and if we break higher I would be planning on shorts.

Hopefully we get some action soon