RAMP

Wow what a ramp up in the markets. commodities especially with a 5.7% gain on Oil. this is end of quarter stuff especially in front of the July 4 holidays which usually is a bullish few days.

JPM Losses from AP

Spoke about this that the $2Billion will be around 3-4 times in the end read below!! Shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. tumbled Thursday as a published report said that the bank's losses on a bad trade may reach as much as $9 billion — far higher than the estimated $2 billion loss disclosed last month. In May, JPMorgan said the loss came from trading in credit derivatives designed to hedge against financial risk, not to make a profit for the New York bank. The New York Times, citing sources it did not identify by name, said that the losses have grown recently as JPMorgan has been unwinding its positions. The newspaper said its sources were current and former traders and executives at JPMorgan, which is the largest bank in the U.S. by assets. The New York Times story cites an internal report that JPMorgan made in April that showed the losses could reach $8 billion to $9 billion, in a worst-case scenario. But the newspaper added that because JPMorgan has already been unwinding its positions, some expect that the losses will not be more than $6 billion to $7 billion. A JPMorgan representative declined to comment. At the time of the loss, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon apologized to shareholders. And just days after the loss was disclosed, Chief Investment Officer Ina Drew left the company. Drew oversaw the trading group responsible for the trade. JPMorgan has lost about $23 billion in market value since the losses came to light on May 10. The loss has heightened concerns that the biggest banks still pose risks to the U.S. financial system, less than four years after the financial crisis in the fall of 2008. In a hearing before the House Financial Services Committee last week, Dimon was dismissive when asked if JPMorgan's losses could total half a trillion or a trillion dollars. He replied bluntly: "Not unless the Earth is hit by the moon." While Dimon avoided putting an exact number on the bank's trading loss, he did say that JPMorgan will have a solidly profitable quarter. JPMorgan plans to give more details related to its losses when it reports second-quarter earnings on July 13..

Health care Law

Another "does it really matter" Law in my opinion. A lot of BLAH BLAH. Only good news here is for the hospitals I have no idea about about hospital stocks but these should get some bidding on them off this news.

AAPL weak

AAPL below its 50 MA- not a good sign for sure

Crazy

Crazy we are trading @ the 1306 all day (sept based. we got 10 points lower for some real support @ 1295 which is 200MA but this 1305/6 area holding for the moment. Nothing much going on with the fluid news out of Eurozone and some big name investors talking about US markets will get his if they dont sort out Greece in days!

Levl to watch

Support should be at 1306 but the all important 200MA is 1295

I saw this coming!!

Moody's downgrade Banks: LONDON/CHARLOTTE, North Carolina (Reuters) - Ratings agency Moody's downgraded many of the world's biggest banks on Thursday, lowering credit ratings of 15 companies by one to three notches. Morgan Stanley, one of the most closely watched firms, had its long-term debt rating lowered by just two notches, one level less than had been expected, and its stock rose in after-hours trading. The downgrade left Morgan Stanley more highly rated than Bank of America Corp and Citigroup but a step below Goldman Sachs Group . Credit Suisse , which last week was warned about weak capital levels by Switzerland's central bank, was the only bank in the group to suffer a three-notch downgrade. But its new A1 deposit and senior debt ratings, however, rank higher than many of its peers. Financial markets have been bracing for the credit rating actions since February, when Moody's Investors Service said it had launched a review of 17 banks with global capital markets operations. These companies face diminished profitability and growth prospects due to difficult operating conditions, increased regulation and other factors, Moody's said. The long-term debt ratings cuts could increase funding costs for Morgan Stanley and other banks, and trading partners may ask for more collateral. But the impact could be muted since the changes were in-line with indications given by Moody's in February on how much the rates were likely to be cut. "The biggest surprise is the three-notch downgrade of Credit Suisse, which no one was looking for," said Mark Grant, managing director at Southwest Securities Inc. "In fact, it was Morgan Stanley that was supposed to be downgraded by that amount and Morgan received only two notches of cuts." In a statement, Morgan Stanley said its ratings "still do not fully reflect the key strategic actions we have taken in recent years," adding: "With our de-risked balance sheet, stable sources of funding, diverse business mix and strong leadership team, we are well positioned to deliver for clients and shareholders." Citigroup also reacted sharply, saying it "strongly disagrees with Moody's analysis of the banking industry and firmly believes its downgrade of Citi is arbitrary and completely unwarranted." Royal Bank of Scotland said the ratings change was "backward-looking and does not give adequate credit for the substantial improvements the Group has made to its balance sheet, funding and risk profile" but called the action manageable. Bank stocks fell on Thursday as investors prepared for an announcement, which leaked to the market as Moody's informed banks that it was coming, according to sources. Morgan Stanley shares declined nearly 1.7 percent to $13.96, while Bank of America shares fell nearly 4 percent to $7.82. The KBW Banks Index <.BKX> was down 2.3 percent. But after suffering only a two-notch cut, instead of three as anticipated, Morgan Stanley shares rose about 3 percent in after-hours trade. In addition to Morgan Stanley, downgraded by two notches were Barclays , BNP Paribas , Royal Bank of Canada , Citigroup, Goldman Sachs Group, JPMorgan Chase , Credit Agricole , Deutsche Bank , and UBS . Falling one notch were Bank of America, HSBC Holdings , Royal Bank of Scotland and Societe Generale . Nomura <8604.T> and Macquarie were included in an original list of global banks, but have already been downgraded. Moody's acknowledged that the lowest-ranked banks have been making changes to improve their profits, but said it is taking a wait-and-see attitude. "These transformations are ongoing and their success has yet to be tested," Moody's said in its announcement. Banks Moody's put in this group were Bank of America, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Royal Bank of Scotland. (Reporting by Steve Slater, Matt Scuffham and Rick Rothacker; additional reporting by Ben Berkowitz, Jed Horowitz, Lauren Tara LaCapra and David Henry; Editing by Alwyn Scott, Elaine Hardcastle and Carol Bishopric)

FED day

So we moved high off the 50MA yesterday as was expected as today is FED day and 90% of the time we have a bullish bias into the FED day. So what do we do from here? Well today is NO trade day! after the announcement my best 'guess' would be a higher move after the announcement and then we wait for next week to get the true digestion of the FED move. Most of the big traders will take the rest of the week off and square up next week after everything is analyzed.

50MA

We are right at the 50MA, as said before if we are between the 200 and 50MA the market will remain choppy till be break out below or above both. I will be watching today to se if we can move above the 50 MA

CNN - Article on Net Worth

Americans' net worth collapsed in recent years, but don't blame the housing market for it all. New Census Bureau data shows that median household net worth, excluding home equity, fell by 25% between 2005 and 2010. That decline was driven largely by the plummeting stock market, which devastated Americans' portfolios and retirement accounts. Overall, median household net worth declined 35% to $66,740 in 2010. The median worth of stock and mutual fund portfolios fell 33%, while the median home equity value dropped 28%. "One of the significant factors is housing, of course, but it's not that alone" said Alfred Gottschalck, an economist with the Census Bureau. "It's how business conditions affect stock and retirement accounts." The estimates are generally in line with what other government reports have found. Last week, the Federal Reserve released its triennial study that showed median family net worth overall dropped nearly 40%, between 2007 and 2010. The Fed study surveys a smaller number of people. The Great Recession -- including the housing and stock market collapses -- wiped out nearly 30 years of net worth gains for the typical household. "The median household is no wealthier than they were in 1984," said Scott Winship, economic studies fellow at Brookings Institution. Digging deeper into the data shows that some groups of Americans were hit much harder than others. Asian, black and Hispanic households each lost a much greater share of median net worth, around 60%, than their white counterparts, at 30%. As for median home equity values, Hispanic households experienced a 55% drop, while Asians saw a 43% decline and blacks a 35% decrease. Whites, on the other hand, lost just under a quarter. Age was also a factor, with younger Americans losing a greater share of their wealth than their parents' generation. Households of people age 35 to 44 saw the largest percent decline in median net worth of any age group: 59%. If home equity isn't factored in, they lost 40%. Most affordable U.S. cities to buy a home Senior citizen households, who have a more diversified portfolio of assets, fared better. They lost only 13% of their net worth, and 18% if home values aren't included. The glimmer of good news in the report is that net worth was steadier between 2009 and 2010, according to Census figures. Overall, it decreased only 4% and, if home equity is excluded, it rose 8%. "You see some degree of stability, but no real recovery in wealth," said Rakesh Kochhar, co-author of the Pew Research Center report on wealth.

Nothing CLEAR!

We are sitting between the 200MA and the 50 MA. Right here we are in no mans land and that's why we will have a roller coaster range till we have a clear outlook. Right here is where traders take vacations and that's why I have not been posting as you basically will be guessing and where the market is heading. Only clear thing I can see are that short term cycles have turned over, but longer term cycles are definitely bottoming!! We have to get back over the 50MA for me to get long. If we dip down back towards the 200MA and it holds we look like we will form a nice inverted head and shoulder pattern to get long. intermediate term here I think we can head higher into the range.

1254???

Are we going back to that magic number 1254 that we battled on our way up. Look for this area to provide the first really solid support for a 'POTENTIAL' bounce

1280

1280 should be an area for the computers to trigger buying but who knows it is late friday. getting extremely oversold here.

1284

1284 here- that's the 200MA. Lets see if we bounce a bit or continue this slow selling I warned about yesterday

200MA in PLAY Cont'd

Made a note of the 200MA yesterday on the blog- Looks like the weak Job numbers is going to open us up right at that level- This is a sizeable gap down and "SHOULD" be playable after confirmation for a long. BINGO!!!