Tuesday, April 1, 2008
Market zooming
Love this market is going higher and very strong with momentum. Remember the bias is to the upside at the start of each quarter.
Commodities
Commodities are in full unwinding down here this morning. OIL is below $100, gold below $900 finally and grains are getting cracked. Been saying this for a few weeks that the commodity space is just crowded with too many traders and this I believe will get a more substantial push down.
Just one of my analysis from trading over the years I will note here. We are beginning a new quarter and usually this has an upward bias as fund managers need to allocate for the new period. I do expect the beaten down first quarter sectors as financials to at least get a bounce here, which would be great as it would set up some nice nice shorts.
In the mean time lets see how far they want to push down these commodities
Just one of my analysis from trading over the years I will note here. We are beginning a new quarter and usually this has an upward bias as fund managers need to allocate for the new period. I do expect the beaten down first quarter sectors as financials to at least get a bounce here, which would be great as it would set up some nice nice shorts.
In the mean time lets see how far they want to push down these commodities
April is here
Well FED just announced that they will bail out all homeowners who can't pay their mortgage! NOT! April fools :)
Although that's a joke it seems that the FED and Government might be looking at something almost as close to it as possible. This is just getting crazy for me I have to laugh out loud. Anyways last night after the market closed Lehman brothers issued $3 billion in convertible notes to raise capital, I mean I thought they said everything was ok with them why would they have to raise money in a secondary, oh I guess I should goto the doctor and ask for an operation that I dont need. People right now is the time to be smart to what is happening on Wall Street because it affects us all. These guys will never tell they truth as they ONLY care about their pockets.
Saying that I am recommending two stocks in the financials again which i think will be much lower this year. I want you to understand I hope we get a bounce so these plays are not to just be jumped on now but Legged in over the next few days/weeks as your account enable you.
Since many of you have retirement account and can't short I will play it using an ultrashort which you can buy thus shorting the market. My pick for those who can't short is SKF!!!
Last time I played SKF i racked up $30 gain in about 4 days, if you had 100 shares that would have been $3000 a pretty nice gain for 4 days. Yesterday SKF closed at 117 but I expect SKF to trade to new highs as the financials goto their death during the year.
I think SKF can goto $185. yes $185.
If you are a trader everyone now I like Citibank, MER, LEH, SOV, FNM short. I believe these shocks will be alot lower some time this year.
As I am writing this some minutes to 7 in the morning UBS just announced $19 Billion in write offs and expect to lose $4B for the first quarter due to subprime crisis. People this crisis hasn't even started believe me dont listen to the talking heads, please dont buy stocks here for more than a bounce or you will get wiped out.
Although that's a joke it seems that the FED and Government might be looking at something almost as close to it as possible. This is just getting crazy for me I have to laugh out loud. Anyways last night after the market closed Lehman brothers issued $3 billion in convertible notes to raise capital, I mean I thought they said everything was ok with them why would they have to raise money in a secondary, oh I guess I should goto the doctor and ask for an operation that I dont need. People right now is the time to be smart to what is happening on Wall Street because it affects us all. These guys will never tell they truth as they ONLY care about their pockets.
Saying that I am recommending two stocks in the financials again which i think will be much lower this year. I want you to understand I hope we get a bounce so these plays are not to just be jumped on now but Legged in over the next few days/weeks as your account enable you.
Since many of you have retirement account and can't short I will play it using an ultrashort which you can buy thus shorting the market. My pick for those who can't short is SKF!!!
Last time I played SKF i racked up $30 gain in about 4 days, if you had 100 shares that would have been $3000 a pretty nice gain for 4 days. Yesterday SKF closed at 117 but I expect SKF to trade to new highs as the financials goto their death during the year.
I think SKF can goto $185. yes $185.
If you are a trader everyone now I like Citibank, MER, LEH, SOV, FNM short. I believe these shocks will be alot lower some time this year.
As I am writing this some minutes to 7 in the morning UBS just announced $19 Billion in write offs and expect to lose $4B for the first quarter due to subprime crisis. People this crisis hasn't even started believe me dont listen to the talking heads, please dont buy stocks here for more than a bounce or you will get wiped out.
Monday, March 31, 2008
OIL
Oil looks like it is in a serious sell off here- Man get that oil down I have a bet against Cramer. . Please goto $95 please :)
Just a little humor there but yes Oil to $95 as I said last month before $115.
Just a little humor there but yes Oil to $95 as I said last month before $115.
Commodities pullback
Finally we are seeing some pullback in the commodities and commodity related stocks. Oil is down $4, gold is down $10 and the agro stocks are down. Maybe this is the fast money moving out of the commodities here. I been saying a pullback should happen for over a month now, I will see how this plays out here, maybe we can catch some plays.
I was done trading the first 30 minutes of the day as I made my profit goal for the day plus I have a headache. It is 12:30. lunch time period so not much is going on, will update tonight on some of my thoughts shorter term here
I was done trading the first 30 minutes of the day as I made my profit goal for the day plus I have a headache. It is 12:30. lunch time period so not much is going on, will update tonight on some of my thoughts shorter term here
Government giving FED more Power
This has serious implications which I wont get into this early in the morning. The FED (Federal Reserve) is a private institution and not governed by the Government. Giving more power for our financial infrastructure to a private entity is giving up the nation's power. This is the worst move I have ever seen in Finance. Bernanke is the WORST fed chairman EVER, but it seems that the political pressure of the election is twisting the arms of those who would normally object to such moves.
Well the announcement will come at 10 am this morning so I will be watching and see how the market reacts.
Well the announcement will come at 10 am this morning so I will be watching and see how the market reacts.
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