As noted over the weekend, I thought traders would buy up the dollar and consequently sell the oil and gold as they are in priced in US dollars.
This is expected but it wont last, will be very interested to see how the market reacts tomorrow after the announcement.
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Software down
No trading today my broker is having problems with data and charts.
Talk to you tomorrow
Talk to you tomorrow
Monday, April 28, 2008
Key to being successful trader
'For every style of trading there will be a "perfect" market environment. When the market is aligned to the strategy that you are trading, every trade will work itself out smoothly, losses will be far and few between, and you will feel on top of the world as you watch your profits accumulate! ......Sooner or later the market environment will shift, if ever so slightly, and losses will once again begin to appear.....This constant cycle from "zero" to "hero" and back to "zero" is why i believe speculation as a business has such a high failure rate.'
The trader's ability to adapt very quickly to an ever changing market environment. Traders who flourish in a momentum market who take overnight positions in high shorted stocks and ride the squeezes and bank easy money will feel unbeatable, but once this environment that was conducive to use this aggressive strategy starts to fade, this same strategy will be responsible in taking back most of the trader's gain as he failed to recognize a market shift as the markets ebbed and flowed from momentum to choppy to correction etc etc.
As traders who wanna survive and be very good at this game, it is vital that we analyze and recognize quickly what type of market we are in. We need to be ahead of the 8 ball and never behind. The quicker you recognize the shift, the more money you will keep and make.
With that said tomorrow is the start of the 2 day FED meeting. I expect trading to be light after the first 2 hours. Don't push it!!! if you don't find a set up in the first two hours call it quits. Go cut your lawn, go some laundry, or listen to the talking heads on CNBC. After Wednesday's announcement we will have tons of opportunity
The trader's ability to adapt very quickly to an ever changing market environment. Traders who flourish in a momentum market who take overnight positions in high shorted stocks and ride the squeezes and bank easy money will feel unbeatable, but once this environment that was conducive to use this aggressive strategy starts to fade, this same strategy will be responsible in taking back most of the trader's gain as he failed to recognize a market shift as the markets ebbed and flowed from momentum to choppy to correction etc etc.
As traders who wanna survive and be very good at this game, it is vital that we analyze and recognize quickly what type of market we are in. We need to be ahead of the 8 ball and never behind. The quicker you recognize the shift, the more money you will keep and make.
With that said tomorrow is the start of the 2 day FED meeting. I expect trading to be light after the first 2 hours. Don't push it!!! if you don't find a set up in the first two hours call it quits. Go cut your lawn, go some laundry, or listen to the talking heads on CNBC. After Wednesday's announcement we will have tons of opportunity
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Traders who trade FOREX
For some of you who trade FOREX, I have a little advice here on the EURO and Dollar.
Here are my thoughts with the FED meeting on Wednesday. The consensus is that the Fed will cut another 25 basis point. I think the Fed now is interested in strengthening the dollar to curb commodities uptrend prices and to do that they need to stop making cuts. They could cut 25 bp and say no more, or they could pause now and that will surely make the dollar fly short term. I think there's a good shot they do not cut at all. Here is how I would play this week if I were a FOREX trader. I would short the Euro Monday and have a tight stop into the FOMC so that I can't get hurt if they do cut. I think the risk/reward is good because if they don't cut then the dollar should FLY!
Good luck
Here are my thoughts with the FED meeting on Wednesday. The consensus is that the Fed will cut another 25 basis point. I think the Fed now is interested in strengthening the dollar to curb commodities uptrend prices and to do that they need to stop making cuts. They could cut 25 bp and say no more, or they could pause now and that will surely make the dollar fly short term. I think there's a good shot they do not cut at all. Here is how I would play this week if I were a FOREX trader. I would short the Euro Monday and have a tight stop into the FOMC so that I can't get hurt if they do cut. I think the risk/reward is good because if they don't cut then the dollar should FLY!
Good luck
Trade Update:IPI
I am holding my 1/2 share left on my IPI long. I believe this sock can run to $80, we will see soon enough.
Only winners here period.
Only winners here period.
Saturday, April 26, 2008
Market Stands
A couple very choppy days in the market but never the less they have been up. One thing you should always remember earnings season always has a bullish sentiment to it as trader anticipate earnings and drive up stocks. Yes they have been one or two earnings season that didn't rally but with earnings estimates expectations lowered in the last few months because of weaker economy I was 100% sure we would rally off these lower expectation.
Don't get tricked here and invest !!! It is a traders market and the reason we are heading up is earnings and nothing else. Next week we have the FED meeting and that also usually ramp up stocks. We are coming close to the end of earnings seasons but I expect another push up especially with the FED meeting next week.
How much higher??? I expect we have about another 300 or so points higher. The financials are being bought here but I dont believe this is the bottom. I have started to accumulate some SKF here slowly. I will add some more I think on FED meeting day and hold with the few I had bought on Wednesday. This will be another golden opportunity to short the financials.
On a note with the US dollar and the FED. I think the FED will soon stop I am not sure if this meeting but inflation in everywhere to be seen, especially in gas and food. FED first priority is to fight inflation and a weak dollar is helping commodities scream higher. If the FED says no more cuts I would expect the Dollar to seriously rally and a sell off in Euros and in the commodities market. Expect Oil and Gold especially to take a hit if the FED even hit at a slowing or end of rate cuts.
Have a great weekend folks
Don't get tricked here and invest !!! It is a traders market and the reason we are heading up is earnings and nothing else. Next week we have the FED meeting and that also usually ramp up stocks. We are coming close to the end of earnings seasons but I expect another push up especially with the FED meeting next week.
How much higher??? I expect we have about another 300 or so points higher. The financials are being bought here but I dont believe this is the bottom. I have started to accumulate some SKF here slowly. I will add some more I think on FED meeting day and hold with the few I had bought on Wednesday. This will be another golden opportunity to short the financials.
On a note with the US dollar and the FED. I think the FED will soon stop I am not sure if this meeting but inflation in everywhere to be seen, especially in gas and food. FED first priority is to fight inflation and a weak dollar is helping commodities scream higher. If the FED says no more cuts I would expect the Dollar to seriously rally and a sell off in Euros and in the commodities market. Expect Oil and Gold especially to take a hit if the FED even hit at a slowing or end of rate cuts.
Have a great weekend folks
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