Wednesday, May 21, 2008

FED minutes

Fed minutes signal no more interest rate cuts as inflation is on the rise. I wrote about this last week and it doesn't take a genius to see this in our daily lives.

TWM is sweet here very sweet. Let's see how we do towards the close.

BLOG ON FIRE!!!!!!

TWM nice so far

The last FED meeting minutes will be out at 2pm . should see extreme volatility on news. I would be flat here

Trade Call: TWM

Buying these ultrashort Russell here for a couple of points.

Price $69.85

Oil $132

Oil $132


GEEZ

OIL $130

Well it didn't take long for Oil to hit that $130 number. How important is this???? Well I am sure not driving alot these days.
I expect us to hit that $138 number based on my fibonacci projections I did some weeks ago when we moved over $120. I will do another one later to see how far we can stretch on this projection.

In the meantime Financials looks lower especially GS, MER, FNM and JPM.
The only group I would play higher is the AGROS: POT, MON and AGU.
Also seem like the buying in the homebuilders is finally over and people are giving up that a bottom is in these stocks.

One sector to watch also is the semis: AMAT and BRCM looks weak

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

HPQ reports above

OK here is a small play.
Hewlett Packard(HPQ) just reported at the close. IF and I say IF, the stock gaps up tomorrow morning more than $1. I wold be buying the $45 calls for a day trade.

Remember only if the stock opens more than +$1 I buy the calls at the 10 am Highs if you want to play it safe

Summer

I dont believe the story about volume is low because we are coming into summer. Listen it is already known that most traders take off summer to send time with family and travel. Last year they said the same thing and pushed the market to new highs and then what happened? we crashed. I expect the same thing to happen here.
If and this is 'IF' m fib numbers are correct we should hit a low off this intermediate high in July. Now I will play the market anyway it goes so I am not going to bet heavily on one side here but it is obvious the markets need a pull back.
I have some ideas on how to play the summer which I will share with you guys in a few weeks.


In the mean time. Stay light and manage risks on trades closely here.