Monday, August 10, 2009
Sugar highest levels in 28 yrs
Another commodity running- These underlining prices are the beginning of the future inflationary period we will see. Remember when these commodities value start to increase, basic food prices will surely rise at an alarming rate.
The price of raw sugar has increased to its highest level since March 1981, as supply concerns grow.
Raw sugar futures added 3% on Monday, to 21.55 cents a pound.
"The main problem is a deficit in sugar supplies," said Nick Penney, a trader with Sucden Financial, a firm that focuses on sugar trading.
Growing demand in Brazil for sugar to be turned into ethanol, coupled with a sharp fall in Indian production, have both prompted worries, he explained.
Sugar production in India for 2008-09 fell 45% year-on-year, according to a report by Sucden.
And a "drastic fall" is expected for the coming Indian crop, it said.
India had less rain in the monsoon season and it was also uneven, damaging a number of agricultural crops.
There are concerns that the pending sugar crop, which will be ready around November, will be inadequate.
The price of raw sugar has increased to its highest level since March 1981, as supply concerns grow.
Raw sugar futures added 3% on Monday, to 21.55 cents a pound.
"The main problem is a deficit in sugar supplies," said Nick Penney, a trader with Sucden Financial, a firm that focuses on sugar trading.
Growing demand in Brazil for sugar to be turned into ethanol, coupled with a sharp fall in Indian production, have both prompted worries, he explained.
Sugar production in India for 2008-09 fell 45% year-on-year, according to a report by Sucden.
And a "drastic fall" is expected for the coming Indian crop, it said.
India had less rain in the monsoon season and it was also uneven, damaging a number of agricultural crops.
There are concerns that the pending sugar crop, which will be ready around November, will be inadequate.
Dollar
Dollar still bouncing from its oversold status.
Note Oil is not selling off here, showing the immediate uptrend on that commodity.
Note Oil is not selling off here, showing the immediate uptrend on that commodity.
Sunday, August 9, 2009
Crude Update
Consolidation was the order of the last week.
My view remains that crude is tracing out a minute [c] leg to finish off minor B.
I'm still assuming that price reaches the daily projection around 75. This should be a significant resistance area, as the 127.2% projection of [a] and the June highs are right there as well.
I will be watching the dollar and how Oil reacts this week
My view remains that crude is tracing out a minute [c] leg to finish off minor B.
I'm still assuming that price reaches the daily projection around 75. This should be a significant resistance area, as the 127.2% projection of [a] and the June highs are right there as well.
I will be watching the dollar and how Oil reacts this week
Corn Update
CORN The corn market pushed hard to the downside like wheat.
Price reached the 38.2% retracement level, which is a common retracement level for a 4th wave, before being turned back. Also, notice the nice alternation with wave [2].
At this stage, price action needs to take out the 304 L, which I'm confident will happen. Downside targets include 270, which is the 61.8% projection of [1] - [3] . The 2:1 of a sits at 266.50.
Price reached the 38.2% retracement level, which is a common retracement level for a 4th wave, before being turned back. Also, notice the nice alternation with wave [2].
At this stage, price action needs to take out the 304 L, which I'm confident will happen. Downside targets include 270, which is the 61.8% projection of [1] - [3] . The 2:1 of a sits at 266.50.
Cycle High
Cycle hi is due early this week. Lets see if we do hit this week.
I am also getting some new projections up to the 1067 area but I am still holding to my previous mid 1000 area but would not be surprised if we ultimately overshoot.
I am also getting some new projections up to the 1067 area but I am still holding to my previous mid 1000 area but would not be surprised if we ultimately overshoot.
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