OIL-

What else can I say oil made it to its daily target of $75 given weeks ago and now it looks like it is dead. Nothing like technical analysis and it is proven here in Oil. I am surprised I missed the target on the S&P BY 4 points, I never been that far off before or maybe we will get one last push up, I definitely have to watch the action and see.

Thoughts on Market

We have been in a tight range for the last few weeks but I think we are definite in a position of forming an important top. Have we already hit the top I dont know but all of analysis is showing me we are in a toppy area. Sentiment have been extreemly bullish and we are know what that means!
Lets see what they want to do especially into the holidays but I think there is great risk reward going short here. If we have already made a high I only missed it by 4 points on the ES.

Wheat Update

The wheat market continues with its dowtrend. It appears that it traced out a corrective flat this week and is ready to resume selling.

I am not sure exactly what finished at the 486 L. I have had an intermediate (1) of (5) label, but it very well could be wave (3). My guess is that the pivot low is most likely wave (3).

Regardless, this downside structure is nearing completion if my interpretation is correct. I have introduced a new alternative count, which is a much more bearish count.

It has wheat in primary [3] currently. This count would portend much lower price. This view, I believe, is a lower probability outcome.

The first order of business is for price action to take out the 486 level. This would confirm that the corrective is indeed finished.

IF we have completed a 1 and 2 off the corrective 517.25 H, then we have minor degree targets at 475.25 (161.8% projection) and 453.25 (261.8% projection) respectively.

Primary targets include the 61.8% projection of [1] - [3] at 465.75, which is our minimum objective. [5] = [1] - [3] at 391.50.

Corn Update

The corn market remains in its downtrend.

It is unclear if corn has finished this corrective or not. I have left the retracement levels on the chart if price needs additional time and/or price to complete this counter trend move.

It is also possible that primary wave [4] needs additional work. A triangle could be tracing here. If so, this leg would appear to be (c). If a triangle, price should not exceed the 373 H.

Assuming that [4] is finished, the first order of business would be to break the 312 L. The first intermediate degree target is 279, which is where (3) = (1).

The minimum primary objective is the 61.8% projection of [1] - [3] at 278.125. [5] = [1] - [3] at 219.50.

Crude Update

The crude market pretty well followed my expectations for the week, although I thought that price would reach a little higher.

It appears that minuette (b) has finished at the 69.83 L, though not a certainty. We have a nice clean 5 wave structure up from that level, which I have labeled as sub-minuette i.

Once we have completed 5 sub-minuette degree waves up, we should finish (c), thus completing minute [b]. Minute [c] down should follow.

Notice how price was rejected at the corrective base channel.

Also notice the RSI divergence at the top of the micro [5]th. Exactly what should be expected with a 5th wave.

It appears that we have finished ii down and have started iii up in earnest. If [2] has completed, which is unclear at this point, we should enter the meat of (c)'s advance.

Near term, I expect price to follow through to the upside. We should see the completion of [b] later in the week.

(w) = (y) at 80.38. the minimum objective is the 61.8% of (w) at 75.25.

I'm anxious to see if they break price out to a new recovery (and yearly) high. This is at 76.56.

Bank Failures

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090829/ap_on_bi_ge/us_meltdown101_bank_failures

Crude Again- BINGO

Very nice reversal for crude off the morning lows. Volume was better than yesterday, but nothing to write home about. Range was $3.12.

There are several ways to label the structure down to the 69.83 L. More than likely it was a flat-x-zigzag, but it makes no difference. The important point is that I believe that minuette (b) has completed.

We are impulsing up, which is exactly what should be happening. My interpretation is that we are tracing a double zigzag for minute [b] wave. This should be the last (c) leg that will finish [b].

If this assessment is correct, we will see higher price, and possibly yearly highs. AB=CD at 77.85. Should we reach that level, we would attain new recovery rally highs.

Notice the nice hit of the 261.8% projection. We also sniffed the lower boundary of the daily channel.

RSI had a monster positive divergence at the 69.83 L.

It appears that we have finished micro [1] - [3] and are currently working on [4]. There is a chance that the degree's should be ratcheted up by one. I have the retracement ratios on the chart.

We should finish up [5] in quick order tomorrow that will complete sub-minuette i.

My channel assumes that [4] has made its low. There is a good chance it has not. I will adjust the channel if needed.