Busy and emergency

I dont know if I will be around tomorrow as an emergency came up today and I have to be away possible for the rest of the week. The market rally looks tired but we have been saying that for awhile with no substantial pullbacks. What I am looking at now is the seasonality of the end of year Wall Street bonus game, that will no doubt delay any deep pullback just like last year.
Very difficult to call the equities here as buying in here the risk reward is not that great, though I think we can grind much higher but I am not going to place any bets here. I will wait and see how it pans out. Gold and Oil what great movers. this year is panning out. January we were at 9000 but dived to 6600 now we are standing at 10200, what a crazy ride!

Gold and Oil

Look on those suckers go- I have been on the phone all morning so I have just come around-

hmmm

Crude

Watch crude carefully this week if we trade lower into wednesday time frame I would be a buyer- Level lower looks like 74 but I would be a buyer there. I don't think the push on the upside is over

US Dollar

he greenback had a huge spike higher Tuesday, before spending the rest of the week retracing the move off the 75.085 L.
It appears that early morning spike was a "thrust" out of a (iv)th wave triangle. If correct, the 77.50 H completed a 5 wave structure that would be labeled minute [i].
The ensuing retracement would be the wave [ii] retracement. It is unclear if [ii] has finished or not. It has retraced 78.6% thus far, a perfect wave retracement in my opinion.
Notice that RSI has failed to breakout of the 50% level once again. This has become the rock of Gibraltar.
Also notice that price could not successfully close the 50 sma.
Both of these appear to be setup to give way when we get our next 5 waves up.
The 75.085 L is a critical level for this assessment. Should we trade through that price, we obviously have something wrong.

Bonds- 30 YR

The 30 Yr failed its retest of the 50 sma, which resulted in nice downside price action for the week.
The 50% retracement level of the move off the 111-23 L, which I have labeled (X)?, supported price again. I believe this level gives way rather soon.
Equality comes in at 114-16. The minimum downside objective is 116-26.
My guess is that price wants to test the 114-26 pivot. The 78.6% retracement level is in the same area.
The bigger picture still remains unclear to me. If the 30 YR did put in an intermediate (X) wave at the 123-25 H, this would mean there is another (A)(B)(C) that should play out to the downside.
Bottom line - I still expect to see another 5 waves down of minor degree, at minimum. We will reassess at that point.

Beans

The bean market continued with its wave (2) retracement this past week.
Interpretation remains intermediate wave (2) of primary [C] of a double zigzag cycle b wave. The primary [B] wave triangle is still my alternate view.
Drilling down intraday shows a very nice ABC corrective so far for wave (2). Price had a nice deep 88.6% retrace.
Perhaps it will want the reciprocal, 112.8% of A, for this C leg. This comes in at 944.
Other targets are where C = A at 953.75, and the 161.8% projection of A at 911.25.
The retracement levels of (1) are on the chart.
As stated last week, I am still hopeful that the channel can maintain its integrity during this retracement process. It has supported twice thus far, making it vulnerable for a break, should price reach it.
The key levels for this upcoming week include the 880.25 L, as well as the 1029.50 H. Any trade through that high will likely signal that wave (3) has begun, assuming our assessment is correct.
I maintain a keen watch of the continued RSI divergence.
Bottom line - I expect wave (2) to come to a close shortly. We should witness nice upside price action with the onset of (3).

Corn

The corn market continued retracing its leg off the 302 L this past week.
Interpretation remains that this market is tracing an intermediate degree (4) wave of primary [A].
I still have concerns about this (4) wave. As discussed last week, it appears to be tracing a zigzag. After such a deep A leg, we are left with little room for C. We did have a nice B leg up that helps.
The price extreme of (1) is 347.60. Should price trade through that level, I would have to re-think my assessment of the structure.
The 50 sma has turned up, and is now above the 347.60 level. This may possibly help support price when they meet.
Notice that RSI has reached the upward sloping trend line, which dates back to early June. This may provide support as well.
Don't forget about the "point of recognition" at the 353 level, an additional possible level of support.
C = 61.8% of A at 365.25. The 78.6% projection of A sits at 356. The 61.8% retracement of (3) comes in at 349.50.

Bottom line - Until 347.60 is traded through, I maintain my bullish stance.