Saturday, November 14, 2009

Gold





The gold market continues to subdivide higher, reaching new highs in the process.
It's apparent that we are getting very close to this leg finishing. I am assuming that this will complete a minute degree wave [v] coming out of the triangle. Remember that triangles precede finishing moves.
If this interpretation is correct, we will complete an intermediate degree (B) wave at this moves conclusion.
I am anxious to see what type of price action we get when this leg finishes subdividing. Whatever it completes should be tradable.
Sentiment continues to maintain over 90% bulls according to the DSI readings.
Bottom line - We keep going up until we don't. If I were long, and I'm not, I would use Friday's low as a stop and perhaps trail it up.

Corn




The corn market traded higher this past week after retesting the broken channel.
I interpret structure to still be tracing intermediate (4) of primary [A].
It's possible that wave (4) has completed and (5) has started. I don't believe this is the case though.
Being a 4 wave, there is always the chance of a triangle or some type of complex pattern.
Should (4)'s price low be in, we can start to get upside projections. (5) = 61.8% of (1) - (3) at 428.25.
RSI has done a good job of maintaining its uptrend line. We should expect to see our customary divergence when (5) completes.
A critical level remains the price extreme of (1) at 347.60. Should price trade through that level, then we would have to take another look at structure.
Bottom line - I'm expecting some more grinding away in this wave (4) this upcoming week.

Soybeans




The bean market traded higher this past week after bouncing off the daily 50 sma.
Interpretation remains intermediate wave (2) of primary [C] of a double zigzag cycle b wave.
Price action off the 951.25 L does not appear impulsive. This suggests that (2) needs additional work. Should this be the case, the channel will be in jeopardy.
The 880.25 L is a critical level. Any trade through this price invalidates this leg being a (2).
A triangle may still be in play, whether an [X] or [B].
The retracement levels of (1) are on the chart.
Bottom line - It appears that wave (3) will need to wait a little longer. I'm expecting downside pressure for the upcoming week.

Wheat



Wheat market enjoyed nice upside price action this past week.
Interpretation of the structure is an intermediate (2) of primary [A].
It is unclear if we are still tracing minor B of (2), or if wave (2) has actually completed. My guess is that we are in the finishing stages of minor B , with C down to follow.
The alternative is that (2) completed at the 487.75 L and we have put in some smaller degree 1's and 2's.
Notice that we are back at the channel. This would be a good spot to complete B.
Any trade through the 574.75 H would signal that (3) has commenced.
The dotted vertical lines in the RSI pane represent Gann dates. The last 2 have been spot on for very tradable lows. The next date takes place on December 2nd.
Bottom line - I'm expecting price to start retracing very soon. The retracement levels are on the chart.

Friday, November 13, 2009

S&P

Obviously a double divergence on the MACD as of yesterday, but unless we get momentum and volume that confirms the downside pressure, this pullback must once again be looked at for a buyable dip. NO!!!!, I AM NOT SAYING IT’S A BUY HERE! I am saying that unless we see something different than the recent pull-ins we have seen, then we should not fight the trend. No, I haven’t changed my big picture view which is that we are in a BEAR market, but looking for the end of wave 2 and the start of wave 3 has been a futile effort for the bears so far. If we are indeed about to start wave 3, there will be plenty of opportunities to get on board once it starts. The obsession of getting in at the beginning can cause much more harm than good to your port.
Anyway, I’ll be watching an early push up for a retest down to Thursday’s lows at a minimum, with the next support line at 1074 basis the S&P Futures. if we gap down, then I'll be looking for a long side fade as well.

Have a great weekend

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Same old story

Folks keep on watch the meaningless DOW and mean while the real story is staring them in the eye. Gold fresh new highs and the US dollar at a 15 month low. The low prolonged interest rates is essentially weakening the currency as it is look upon the deep pockets as a sign of weakness that the FED is not willing to raise interest rates.
Gold is up almost 30% year to date and that's nothing to sneeze about and is outperforming the market over the last 5 years at a rate of more than 10 times.

We will see what happens but I am sure this house of cards will fall. I have a family emergency and I am just popping in.

Stay light like the volume :)

MARKETJEDI

Gold

Another new high on Gold-

Just popping in