Friday, January 18, 2008
WOW
Wow i guess that wasn't all on the downside this morning on the ES. We are in crash and burn mode here again. market was up +180 now down 120 man oh man when will it stop. We scalped the ES here for 17 points on the downside but it was scary. Oil looks dead weak here and the OIH is down another $5. Somewhere soon i want to be stepping into some OIH calls. We will see soon enough
Thursday, January 17, 2008
What will ultimately happen
Today at 1:30 PM I noted to one of my trading partners that the market would end at its lows for the day because the volume on the upticks were extremely weak. My best guess was for the Dow to end somewhere below the 12300 area but to my surprise the mounting present of the bears sold us off an additional 200 points. Chicago futures traders were on a mission to sell everything they had on paper and end the day at the lowest level in 15 months.
I hate to beat the horse again but this is a bear market! We are 2000 points below the highs in the Dow and the broad base Russell 2000 is now 20% below it summer 2007 highs. We are now seeing the spreading of the mortgage and derivative markets spread to areas of the economy that we thought was fool proof from the mortgage dilemma.
I hope I am totally wrong about this but I saw something today that scared me technically. Today I saw the indices drop the most percentage in months without the markets being in panic mode. This is alarming as I have been saying we must have some from of capitulation (panic selling) before we find a bottom. What is panic selling? Capitulation would be a significant sell climax in the markets where there is virtually no buying 'virtual panic selling' everyone wants to cash out.
We are closer and closer to this point in my opinion and although we might not get the 750-1000 points decline I predicted I still think it is very possible. Today I saw the four horsemen of tech get thrown out with everything else, especially the financials.
Financials are tech are key here because they are the leaders in the economy, some might say commodity based companies especially oil service stocks are now proving to be the leaders but I differ.
Technology and Financials are the leaders hands down and I do see alot more downside especially in tech.
As usual the big guys are manipulating the market and saved this drop in the market till after december so they could collect their record bonuses bt the last laugh might be on them if we head towards full recession as no one will be speared.
Tomorrow is the first option expiration for the year and might be the catalyst for one of two things, 1) more selling or 2)stabilization of some of the selling. M best guess is that next week we might sell hard, with tuesday and wednesday the days to watch for a flush out which should be buyable for a bounce.
I hate to beat the horse again but this is a bear market! We are 2000 points below the highs in the Dow and the broad base Russell 2000 is now 20% below it summer 2007 highs. We are now seeing the spreading of the mortgage and derivative markets spread to areas of the economy that we thought was fool proof from the mortgage dilemma.
I hope I am totally wrong about this but I saw something today that scared me technically. Today I saw the indices drop the most percentage in months without the markets being in panic mode. This is alarming as I have been saying we must have some from of capitulation (panic selling) before we find a bottom. What is panic selling? Capitulation would be a significant sell climax in the markets where there is virtually no buying 'virtual panic selling' everyone wants to cash out.
We are closer and closer to this point in my opinion and although we might not get the 750-1000 points decline I predicted I still think it is very possible. Today I saw the four horsemen of tech get thrown out with everything else, especially the financials.
Financials are tech are key here because they are the leaders in the economy, some might say commodity based companies especially oil service stocks are now proving to be the leaders but I differ.
Technology and Financials are the leaders hands down and I do see alot more downside especially in tech.
As usual the big guys are manipulating the market and saved this drop in the market till after december so they could collect their record bonuses bt the last laugh might be on them if we head towards full recession as no one will be speared.
Tomorrow is the first option expiration for the year and might be the catalyst for one of two things, 1) more selling or 2)stabilization of some of the selling. M best guess is that next week we might sell hard, with tuesday and wednesday the days to watch for a flush out which should be buyable for a bounce.
OIH- potential set up
OIH - lets keep an eye on it. With a deepen pullback in the market and Oil , OIH have been on a pulback. Currentl is looks like it is setting up for a buy opportunity. I will make a note in m blog if i initiate a trade on it.
Just Ugly
Saying this again. DONT BE AN INVESTOR.
Google down $10 heading to my $550 downside
Apple below my target now at $159 sweet
FSLR wow $175 called it short @230 wow 3 weeks ago sweet.
BIDU down $15 today and now sub $280. wow.
Market is in death mode here and Bernanke talking isn't helping. It will talk alot of buying to get us out of this. STAY SHORT or stay out. Do not buy or pick bottoms.
We are oversold technically here but I think everyone is scared to play the bounce.
Beazer Homes might be closing down. I have no inside information but it seems they might have to declare Bankruptcy. Hmmmm who said that a home builder would go Bankrupt. MARKETJEDI!!!!!!!!
Google down $10 heading to my $550 downside
Apple below my target now at $159 sweet
FSLR wow $175 called it short @230 wow 3 weeks ago sweet.
BIDU down $15 today and now sub $280. wow.
Market is in death mode here and Bernanke talking isn't helping. It will talk alot of buying to get us out of this. STAY SHORT or stay out. Do not buy or pick bottoms.
We are oversold technically here but I think everyone is scared to play the bounce.
Beazer Homes might be closing down. I have no inside information but it seems they might have to declare Bankruptcy. Hmmmm who said that a home builder would go Bankrupt. MARKETJEDI!!!!!!!!
market weak
Well Bernanke is speaking and what the heck is he saying only he knows. Bernanke need to resign as Cramer would say he knows nothing. The FED seem to be non effective in this downturn and the are not in a position to now stop a recession from taking hold. Internals are not that bad but we traded below March 2007 lows which is technically damaging.
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