Today was a prime example of a news driven market. The market are looking for any news via the fed, mortgage derivative, hedgie etc to trade on. It almost seem too fake how we just trading off news in a hope of a rally or a crash. Here today I have to give it up to the bulls as the overnight lows didn't make a big impact on the final numbers. Tech, bios and agro stocks seem to have found some buying or short covering from the open to pan out a gain.
Well good to know Standard and Poors are on top of the market as usual. They claimed today that most of the bank write offs are coming to an end and we should be out of the woods soon. Well I have so much faint that I had my $5 in Enron when Standard and Poors said they were AAA rated, PLEASE lets be real here. Folks at Standard & Poors are a bunch of idiots and we will see soon enough if we are near the end.
Do you really think the Carlyle group is the only hedge fund out there that is using 32:1 leverage and got burnt. I think not but we will see soon enough.
Right here I am taking it easy as the FED action thru a money wrench in the setups i was looking at.
Remember next week is option expiration week and we should get some nice movements monday and tuesday. I am definitely not trading next friday as I haven't been having too much luck on options expiration days.
Thursday, March 13, 2008
When will they get it!!!!!!!!
Carlyle Capital margin call, Bear Sterns lost of confidence, bad retail numbers and news of 20% job cuts on Wall Street, YEN is now at its highest level in 13 yrs are some of the news that are pounding us this morning. The news is nowhere good and that's why I am a perma bear long term. Yes we will get the bear market rallies but come on we heading lower much lower.
In the next few months most stocks will have made 52 weeks lows and many will make multi year lows. The FED is powerless against this spiral and SHOULD not try and help the markets as bear markets and recessions are a natural process of cleansing, just like we have natural disasters such as hurricane which are nature cleansing phenomenons.
Well for today we will see how far the gap us down. I would love ot see a huge gap down in certain stocks so I can play the bounce for the day but today if we dont bounce hard enough the bears might take it to the bulls and drive us way down.
I will be watching the financials closely today for reaction. Expect a big spike in SKF, wish I had step back into that play, oh well! that's how it goes.
Good luck
In the next few months most stocks will have made 52 weeks lows and many will make multi year lows. The FED is powerless against this spiral and SHOULD not try and help the markets as bear markets and recessions are a natural process of cleansing, just like we have natural disasters such as hurricane which are nature cleansing phenomenons.
Well for today we will see how far the gap us down. I would love ot see a huge gap down in certain stocks so I can play the bounce for the day but today if we dont bounce hard enough the bears might take it to the bulls and drive us way down.
I will be watching the financials closely today for reaction. Expect a big spike in SKF, wish I had step back into that play, oh well! that's how it goes.
Good luck
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Rumors on BSC
Got some rumor news just now of Bear Sterns being on companies don't answer list. I dont know if it is true but this might have explained the CEO coming and CNBC today and the subsequent sell off throught the day. Financials are dead here and I dont expect them to be at a bottom till be here of some really bad news of one of the big financials being in a cash crunch or one of them being taken over.
Lets face it if the investment banks are in dire shape imagine the hedge funds who took the same leverage trades and didn't hedge. We might be in a world of trouble here. Today's action plus this rumor tonight makes the investment banks and FNM playable short on any gap ups.
They are officially on play as day trade as shorts only when they gap up.
Lets face it if the investment banks are in dire shape imagine the hedge funds who took the same leverage trades and didn't hedge. We might be in a world of trouble here. Today's action plus this rumor tonight makes the investment banks and FNM playable short on any gap ups.
They are officially on play as day trade as shorts only when they gap up.
Plan for Wednesday
Without going into too much details I only have one question? Where are the bulls. Although i expected a dull day I expected us to at least end marginally positive to show some face for the bulls. Yet again I think smart money is setting up to sell their holdings on an move higher. Bear Sterns, Fannie Mae, Google all were up initially off the open then bam they continued to sell.
For tomorrow I am giving a heads up. I am shorting AMZN and GOOGLE. AMZN I will do as a long term play with about $5 profit target. For Google I will be looking to short it below a 10 AM low as a day trade. I bought some USO puts right before the close which expired next week and if we get some bearish numbers tomorrow off the inventory numbers I will take some profits on it or ride them out till next week. I bought 4 contracts and willing to risk all on the play.
One other short to look at tomorrow is SLB, been trading terribly but I would wait for a 10 AM low here to make a trigger.
Talk to you tomorrow.
For tomorrow I am giving a heads up. I am shorting AMZN and GOOGLE. AMZN I will do as a long term play with about $5 profit target. For Google I will be looking to short it below a 10 AM low as a day trade. I bought some USO puts right before the close which expired next week and if we get some bearish numbers tomorrow off the inventory numbers I will take some profits on it or ride them out till next week. I bought 4 contracts and willing to risk all on the play.
One other short to look at tomorrow is SLB, been trading terribly but I would wait for a 10 AM low here to make a trigger.
Talk to you tomorrow.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
FED Move
What an ingenious way for the Fed to get out of the rate cutting business and still save the day. They told the brokers today we will take your crap and we will give you some treasuries. It gave the discount window a whole new purpose and maybe changed the way it is actually defined going forward.
How long do we bounce will be the BIG question. Alot of smart money will be active tomorrow and I expect a dull day to digest the huge gains we had today. Tomorrow alot of bear will come out saying this is a band aid solution and point out where the real problem lies. Others can easily debate the opposite side of the issue saying the FED is on Wall Street side.
Whatever it is I will be doing some set ups tonight although it will be tough with the strong day today. I think we have a shot for the NASDAQ to hit 2296 before we reach first critical resistance.
I am making a list of stock which I think will make monster moves in the next 12 months. I am only going to give them out initially to loyal readers and they must sign up for it by email.
I might make a trade on USO short tomorrow or later this week as a potential setup. Just a heads up there.
Have a great Wednesday trading
How long do we bounce will be the BIG question. Alot of smart money will be active tomorrow and I expect a dull day to digest the huge gains we had today. Tomorrow alot of bear will come out saying this is a band aid solution and point out where the real problem lies. Others can easily debate the opposite side of the issue saying the FED is on Wall Street side.
Whatever it is I will be doing some set ups tonight although it will be tough with the strong day today. I think we have a shot for the NASDAQ to hit 2296 before we reach first critical resistance.
I am making a list of stock which I think will make monster moves in the next 12 months. I am only going to give them out initially to loyal readers and they must sign up for it by email.
I might make a trade on USO short tomorrow or later this week as a potential setup. Just a heads up there.
Have a great Wednesday trading
NICE to be accurate
Read the blog posting entry for yesterday evenings of a possible catalyst. Wow I just FELT it in all seriousness that something was in the works and then bang this morning liquidity injection by the FED and futures up huge.
It is goign to take alot more than this to save us but as said yesterday I definitely see oversold conditions but where we bounce to is the question. I WOULD LOVE to see us bounce hard as to set up some monster shorts and get back on stuff like SKF !!!
STAY TUNED- WE ARE TOTALLY ROCKING ON THE MARKETS
It is goign to take alot more than this to save us but as said yesterday I definitely see oversold conditions but where we bounce to is the question. I WOULD LOVE to see us bounce hard as to set up some monster shorts and get back on stuff like SKF !!!
STAY TUNED- WE ARE TOTALLY ROCKING ON THE MARKETS
Monday, March 10, 2008
Mondays recap.
Well in the first week of January I made mention of the collapse of Google. The Internet giant was trading around the $575 area at that time. Wow! were we dead on! The first target on the downside was 525 then 450 then a test of the 425 area which is where we started today’s trading but are now below that level. Google will see closer to $330 are before the summer is up. Prices in the market seem to be tracking to summer 2004 prices and I suspect this is where a very short term bottom will be found.
What can I say about FNM, it is in a death spiral to the low teens which was called 3 weeks ago when it was $30, now trading at $19. Citibank, Bear Sterns, Lehman and Goldman are also in a spiral down but I believe they will soon get a catalyst to stop the bleeding. Citibank was an awesome call for sub $20 and Goldman which is holding up fairly well compared to the other brokers will soon break down to their levels. Again I am expecting a bounce in the Investment banks here as I think there might be some catalyst in the works to prop them up, so please be diligent on that sector trade.
This week I expect us to get some nice moves in the market lets not jump in without stops as the market to be seem to be oversold and we might be due for a short term bounce. Where does the bounce takes us is the more important question.
OPEN PLAYS
SHORT SOV $12.30, now $9.91
OIH 180 PUTS @8.75, now $12.85.
Two more WINNERS!!!!!!!!!!!
What can I say about FNM, it is in a death spiral to the low teens which was called 3 weeks ago when it was $30, now trading at $19. Citibank, Bear Sterns, Lehman and Goldman are also in a spiral down but I believe they will soon get a catalyst to stop the bleeding. Citibank was an awesome call for sub $20 and Goldman which is holding up fairly well compared to the other brokers will soon break down to their levels. Again I am expecting a bounce in the Investment banks here as I think there might be some catalyst in the works to prop them up, so please be diligent on that sector trade.
This week I expect us to get some nice moves in the market lets not jump in without stops as the market to be seem to be oversold and we might be due for a short term bounce. Where does the bounce takes us is the more important question.
OPEN PLAYS
SHORT SOV $12.30, now $9.91
OIH 180 PUTS @8.75, now $12.85.
Two more WINNERS!!!!!!!!!!!
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