Commodities Next

Commodities next elevator down!!! I kind of said this would happen but was off around a month too early. Speculation in the commodities markets have been on a rampage for a few months especially since fast money has been playing Oil, Gold, and the grains. Today say the first meaningful crack in GOLD, down $60 should be the first of it. I said it a few days ago when Cramer spoke about Gold going to 1600, I said I bet it reaches 875/850 before it reaches $1100, well lets see what happens.
One thing I am trying to teach on this blog is that of crowding trades.
Crowding trades refers to the act of too many players in one sector play. What happens is like having a party with the same size cake but inviting more people will lead to everyone getting a smaller and smaller slice of cake. This is how bubbles are formed and busted. Right now I have no doubt some commodities are in bubble territory and my main one is GOLD. Oil I think will get a pullback but Oil will go higher longer term as population and industrial growth increases. One other area of commodities I think is in a bubble is fertilizer and wheat and based on this I am shorting some of the high flyers in these sectors.
This evening I took puts on POT and CF but it was very almost at the closing bell so I didn't post on the blog. I will see how they work tomorrow and if they trade down I will initiate a TRADE CALL on them officially. One other reason for the selling of these stocks is of the deleveraging of the financial risks in the market.
There was talk today that Lehman picked up a bunch of Bear Stearns business and some prime brokerage was a part of it. Prime brokerage is the part of the business that for a big part, services hedge funds. Hedge funds crave leverage ( Carlyle Group received $35 for every dollar they had under management) That ended in bankruptcy this week. The conversation that Lehman had with hedge funds today, only guessing,went something like this, "we'll do business with you but in this environment the leverage we will give you is going to be much less than what your used to." When your prime broker has this conversation with you, one of the options is to start selling and reducing exposure, especially your winners, you know the positions you owned on 8 to leverage. That is one of the reasons for the unwinding in commodities today and I really feel it has only just begun.

Very POOR showing

This is a very poor showing my the bulls. I guess the right and only way is to short ALL bounces and the smart money still things the market will go lower. I really thought the market would get a bit in gear higher after all that FED intervention.
Anyways, commodities are getting the pullback I been talking about the last 2 weeks. Gold down $60, oil down $6 and more will come. I will be looking at some fibonacci tonight to see where we can go , just unbelievable we are getting no traction, well the day isn't over yet.

Update on GOLD

Gold seem to be getting cracked here lets see if it can goto my 875 target. Good one Cramer said we going higher. Let's see if I win the bet :)

Thoughts on the BROKERS

I do think the brokers which had the best bounce here will head lower. GS I will be watching closely as it is the strongest and the first sign of weakness I will be buying some SKF again. I had a dream that GS was at $121 and my dreams always comes through. We will see how far the brokers can go on this run up. GS first resistance is 10 points higher from here.

Thoughts

There are some thoughts on the street of a bottom. Today Cramer said we have bottom and called for investors to buy. My thoughts are this on what i saw today: The FED is in save Wall street mode more than anything else. They realize the importance of the institution of Wall Street and are going out fully to make sure it remains the world's economic nucleus.
Right now you just can't fight the Fed anymore, way to powerful. I have had a blast on the short side, and made a lot of money, but the easy money has been made and I don't want to be a pig. Of course there will be individual stocks I will short but as far as inverse short funds, it will become much harder to make the easy money on the market indices. Bear Stearns is finished and Lehman and Goldman exploded today on good numbers so I really think most of the bed news is out. Don't get me wrong, we will still see more fallout but the affect on the market going forward MIGHT be muted. I would not buy financials here though. They have moved too much in here and we have to wait for more logical set ups.
I will reassess in a few trading days. I think longer term we will go lower but in the mean time longs might be correct here

NICE move

Nice move on the market here higher. As said last night the FED day announcement is usually upward biased and so we see it here higher in lieu of interest rates lowering decision.

TRADE CALL:WM Update

Rumors are abound of a WM takeover- Covering short here -.40.