Key to being successful trader

'For every style of trading there will be a "perfect" market environment. When the market is aligned to the strategy that you are trading, every trade will work itself out smoothly, losses will be far and few between, and you will feel on top of the world as you watch your profits accumulate! ......Sooner or later the market environment will shift, if ever so slightly, and losses will once again begin to appear.....This constant cycle from "zero" to "hero" and back to "zero" is why i believe speculation as a business has such a high failure rate.'
The trader's ability to adapt very quickly to an ever changing market environment. Traders who flourish in a momentum market who take overnight positions in high shorted stocks and ride the squeezes and bank easy money will feel unbeatable, but once this environment that was conducive to use this aggressive strategy starts to fade, this same strategy will be responsible in taking back most of the trader's gain as he failed to recognize a market shift as the markets ebbed and flowed from momentum to choppy to correction etc etc.

As traders who wanna survive and be very good at this game, it is vital that we analyze and recognize quickly what type of market we are in. We need to be ahead of the 8 ball and never behind. The quicker you recognize the shift, the more money you will keep and make.

With that said tomorrow is the start of the 2 day FED meeting. I expect trading to be light after the first 2 hours. Don't push it!!! if you don't find a set up in the first two hours call it quits. Go cut your lawn, go some laundry, or listen to the talking heads on CNBC. After Wednesday's announcement we will have tons of opportunity

FNM

FNM back below $30.

Traders who trade FOREX

For some of you who trade FOREX, I have a little advice here on the EURO and Dollar.
Here are my thoughts with the FED meeting on Wednesday. The consensus is that the Fed will cut another 25 basis point. I think the Fed now is interested in strengthening the dollar to curb commodities uptrend prices and to do that they need to stop making cuts. They could cut 25 bp and say no more, or they could pause now and that will surely make the dollar fly short term. I think there's a good shot they do not cut at all. Here is how I would play this week if I were a FOREX trader. I would short the Euro Monday and have a tight stop into the FOMC so that I can't get hurt if they do cut. I think the risk/reward is good because if they don't cut then the dollar should FLY!


Good luck

Trade Update:IPI

I am holding my 1/2 share left on my IPI long. I believe this sock can run to $80, we will see soon enough.


Only winners here period.

Market Stands

A couple very choppy days in the market but never the less they have been up. One thing you should always remember earnings season always has a bullish sentiment to it as trader anticipate earnings and drive up stocks. Yes they have been one or two earnings season that didn't rally but with earnings estimates expectations lowered in the last few months because of weaker economy I was 100% sure we would rally off these lower expectation.
Don't get tricked here and invest !!! It is a traders market and the reason we are heading up is earnings and nothing else. Next week we have the FED meeting and that also usually ramp up stocks. We are coming close to the end of earnings seasons but I expect another push up especially with the FED meeting next week.
How much higher??? I expect we have about another 300 or so points higher. The financials are being bought here but I dont believe this is the bottom. I have started to accumulate some SKF here slowly. I will add some more I think on FED meeting day and hold with the few I had bought on Wednesday. This will be another golden opportunity to short the financials.
On a note with the US dollar and the FED. I think the FED will soon stop I am not sure if this meeting but inflation in everywhere to be seen, especially in gas and food. FED first priority is to fight inflation and a weak dollar is helping commodities scream higher. If the FED says no more cuts I would expect the Dollar to seriously rally and a sell off in Euros and in the commodities market. Expect Oil and Gold especially to take a hit if the FED even hit at a slowing or end of rate cuts.

Have a great weekend folks

Choppy

Very choppy day but as predicted the agros are on fire and bouncing from the last two days of selling. I am very afriad to say this but oil looks like it doesn't want to pull back. The big tech stocks are flat to weak today, we need to monitor this group next week as they are now in overbought territory and might be good short candidates.
Today very choppy with light volume, my best guess it that next week, since it is end of month we should get some good movement.

FNM approaching $30 again. Watch for that on the short side again..

POT

POT (Potash) has been on a bullish trend and this morning JP Morgan has raised EPS to $18.50 from $11.75. I can't recall ever a firm raising target 50% on a stock and this must be seen as extremely bullish.
The stock has pullback the last two days but I expect POT to see all time high next week on this news. Also watchfor the other agros like, MON, MOS, AGU of the world to have a good day and test their highs.
Lets see if we can push higher today again into the 1400 level and see if we reject it again. If we do that would been a second failure for the bulls to push us over the edge higher.
Watch MA and V today, after AXP good earnings yesterday evening these might get some buying.