Well the plan for today was thrown out early when we got higher than expected consumer confidence numbers. I guess I am no longer a consumer because I don't have any confidence especially after hearing the tax payers will now be giving GM more money and own more than 70% of the company. I am very proud to say I am now a part owner of a automobile company :)
Presently we look like we are forming another triangle on the daily charts and for those trend line folks, it looks like 918 area should cap the triangle trendline. I put little faith in trendlines but you must use them to form triangles.
Let's see what they do tomorrow but I have to acknowledge what I hear today on cnbc about the big trading firms desk saying no action is going on for weeks with this upside. One reply for a trade desk today was it is so sloooooow, that they are fall asleep, that should tell you something about this price movement up it has no volume so no conviction and the big money is waiting for prices to go higher to short.
I have no idea how long we will trade in this low volume situation but when we do get the volume in it will more than likely be on the downside.
AAPL etc going back to new higher you better sell while the going is good for prices.
Some scenarios to consider here
- price breaks below 900 before testing 915 (very bearish)
- price consolidates near 915 (very bullish)
- price touches the 915 zone and gets slammed (very bearish)
Remember there is still an upside projection of 943. The fact the bears could not break 875 hard makes me think that projection is still active.
Also if any readers of the blog trade currencies please send me an email at marketjedi@gamil.com
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Saturday, May 23, 2009
Numbers to watch
Why I have not been posting alot of numbers iS becauSe the day ranges are so tight I can't get PRECISE projections to work with. The wider the ranges are the easier it is, as the narrow range is just sign of choppiness and sideways action but never the less I always try to use large time frames which are less distorted to see if there are any projections to look at.
Presently I have a downside projection of 847 on the S&P and an upside projection of 943 which is a gap fill and 'should' provide heavy resistance to get through at least on the first try.
The 847 level is very key because if we don't hold there we will definitely see 820/823 in a rush. My scenario here is this: if we see 847 before 943, 847/850 is a screaming buy!!!! Why? because unlike most other bears I don't believe we crash and burn so easily to see new lows, well not now but definitely later. So my scenario would be if we head down to this area and bounce we will make it up to the last swing high and head much higher and then complete this dreaded wave 4 (or 2 which some think it is). We will see soon enough.
MARKETJEDI
Presently I have a downside projection of 847 on the S&P and an upside projection of 943 which is a gap fill and 'should' provide heavy resistance to get through at least on the first try.
The 847 level is very key because if we don't hold there we will definitely see 820/823 in a rush. My scenario here is this: if we see 847 before 943, 847/850 is a screaming buy!!!! Why? because unlike most other bears I don't believe we crash and burn so easily to see new lows, well not now but definitely later. So my scenario would be if we head down to this area and bounce we will make it up to the last swing high and head much higher and then complete this dreaded wave 4 (or 2 which some think it is). We will see soon enough.
MARKETJEDI
Downgrade of US credit
Last year I wrote about the consequence of the huge debt of the US. I said this is one of the reasons I believe in the not too distance future interest rates on bonds will have to rise substantially to continue to fund the deficit of the nation and if some of our biggest credits ie. China and Japan start shying away from our debt we will be in a economic peril much bigger that the credit crisis.
Last week we say the first sign of the collapse of the bonds which caused the commodities such as Gold and Oil to scream higher. Expect alot more of this in the future as the debt burden increases and countries move away from the dollar as their main asset, which they will.
The main talk last week why the markets pullback was the there is a possible downgrade coming on US bonds, will it happen or is it just speculation.
Last week we say the first sign of the collapse of the bonds which caused the commodities such as Gold and Oil to scream higher. Expect alot more of this in the future as the debt burden increases and countries move away from the dollar as their main asset, which they will.
The main talk last week why the markets pullback was the there is a possible downgrade coming on US bonds, will it happen or is it just speculation.
Past few weeks
The past few weeks have been the most difficult to trade and I think will go down in history are the most confusing times for the markets without a doubt. I have been dumbfounded of the last few weeks action although I did call this rally which I think has upside into July but thursday/ fridays action has put a light bulb over my head again.
What happened? The first clear sign I have seen in weeks that of a lower high pattern on the daily SPY(S&P500) chart. This to be is a signal of a more substantial pullback present and I have already step foot into some more puts at the 920 area and doubled up on ES puts there too and now averaging somewhere in the 866 level now. Do or die I stick by my calls and I will be looking to play some puts here as I believe we are coming close to the top of this rally especially in terms of time.
I hope you have a safe holidays and remember what this holiday stands for. I often remind myself that holidays stand for something than just a day off from work or school or to get gifts. Memorial day is for the soldiers who fought for whatever reason the country our tribute goes out to them.
What happened? The first clear sign I have seen in weeks that of a lower high pattern on the daily SPY(S&P500) chart. This to be is a signal of a more substantial pullback present and I have already step foot into some more puts at the 920 area and doubled up on ES puts there too and now averaging somewhere in the 866 level now. Do or die I stick by my calls and I will be looking to play some puts here as I believe we are coming close to the top of this rally especially in terms of time.
I hope you have a safe holidays and remember what this holiday stands for. I often remind myself that holidays stand for something than just a day off from work or school or to get gifts. Memorial day is for the soldiers who fought for whatever reason the country our tribute goes out to them.
Friday, May 22, 2009
Hmmmm
Things to think about- We gapped down and failed to fill the gap. Remember tomorrow is a friday before a long weekend and most will take the day off. I would love to see a test of the gap which stands @ 893 either overnight or early to see if we reject off it and rush to test the lows of the day. I would not expect much but if we grind nope which I would be surprised being a friday before an holiday look for some support to kick in around 875 then 869.
I am stuck in some put for June so I am hoping for a real pullback but I dont think we will get it tomorrow to scare the bulls just yet.
Remember the volume should be very light.
Oh the largest bank to fail to date was Bank united which was shut down today.
We will have alot more
I am stuck in some put for June so I am hoping for a real pullback but I dont think we will get it tomorrow to scare the bulls just yet.
Remember the volume should be very light.
Oh the largest bank to fail to date was Bank united which was shut down today.
We will have alot more
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Pre market
Looks like we will gap up but I expect us to fill the gap today and test that overnight lows of 902.50. Where we go today? I have no idea but if we break 902.50 on the downside I would be looking for a test of 893.
I will be here today
I will be here today
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