I expect higher prices here but how we get there is anyones guess. 945 should be a done deal and possible 987, yes 987 but I am always cautious here as the volume seem to be telling us this is no broad based rally indeed. Reason why I think higher here it is more or a timing factor than price. We have been correcting this move mostly in terms of time instead of price and that's why we are just chopping day in day out.
I think firmly this intermediate top will be reached withing the next 5-6 weeks, the lastest the week after July 4th and then we will more than likely retrace.
Lets see if we can find some decent plays when we break out of this chop to capitalize on. We have to be patient and not jump the gun.
Have a great weekend.
Saturday, May 30, 2009
Thursday, May 28, 2009
One more day
Last day of trading is tomorrow and looking at the charts we have gone no where this month. We have virtually just traded in a 40 point range on the S&P and that's unbelievable in deed. I hope we break this chop soon or I will be on the unemployment lines :) so come on big money break us !!!
Chart for all
I know I have posted this chart before but here it goes as I got some emails about the market. Nothing goes in a straight line but this is the overhaul target I think we will hit before it is all over. Time wise I think we will be in a bear market till at least 2011 if not 2013
Trend
This is the reason we always look back on the market behavior. Last post I noted that whenever we end the day bearish like yesterday the following day we head higher and the same thing happened today. Well this being a holiday shorten weekend and end of month I am more looking for an up end of the week as a sign of month end mark up.
June should set the tone and with almost most managers closing out their quarter at the end of June I believe the highs of this push up will be seen in June or the first 7 trading days of July.
June should set the tone and with almost most managers closing out their quarter at the end of June I believe the highs of this push up will be seen in June or the first 7 trading days of July.
Barcelona
Congrats to Barcelona on winning the UEFA Cup yesterday. Two very good goals indeed.
Well we consolidated yesterday and ended below the 900 area. I believe we mitch match around these areas till be break one way or another.
Not much to say as we are still chopping but one idea I see is NEM as a short, way over extended here like other stuff but I am not going all out short here till I see 945 on the S&P or a break of this range lower.
If today we continue down I think we are planning on a move lower but we have seen this scenario before were we close bearish and the following day there was no follow through on the downside. I wonder if we repeat today that trend or we get some legs down.
We will see
MARKETJEDI
Well we consolidated yesterday and ended below the 900 area. I believe we mitch match around these areas till be break one way or another.
Not much to say as we are still chopping but one idea I see is NEM as a short, way over extended here like other stuff but I am not going all out short here till I see 945 on the S&P or a break of this range lower.
If today we continue down I think we are planning on a move lower but we have seen this scenario before were we close bearish and the following day there was no follow through on the downside. I wonder if we repeat today that trend or we get some legs down.
We will see
MARKETJEDI
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Well Well
Well the plan for today was thrown out early when we got higher than expected consumer confidence numbers. I guess I am no longer a consumer because I don't have any confidence especially after hearing the tax payers will now be giving GM more money and own more than 70% of the company. I am very proud to say I am now a part owner of a automobile company :)
Presently we look like we are forming another triangle on the daily charts and for those trend line folks, it looks like 918 area should cap the triangle trendline. I put little faith in trendlines but you must use them to form triangles.
Let's see what they do tomorrow but I have to acknowledge what I hear today on cnbc about the big trading firms desk saying no action is going on for weeks with this upside. One reply for a trade desk today was it is so sloooooow, that they are fall asleep, that should tell you something about this price movement up it has no volume so no conviction and the big money is waiting for prices to go higher to short.
I have no idea how long we will trade in this low volume situation but when we do get the volume in it will more than likely be on the downside.
AAPL etc going back to new higher you better sell while the going is good for prices.
Some scenarios to consider here
- price breaks below 900 before testing 915 (very bearish)
- price consolidates near 915 (very bullish)
- price touches the 915 zone and gets slammed (very bearish)
Remember there is still an upside projection of 943. The fact the bears could not break 875 hard makes me think that projection is still active.
Also if any readers of the blog trade currencies please send me an email at marketjedi@gamil.com
Presently we look like we are forming another triangle on the daily charts and for those trend line folks, it looks like 918 area should cap the triangle trendline. I put little faith in trendlines but you must use them to form triangles.
Let's see what they do tomorrow but I have to acknowledge what I hear today on cnbc about the big trading firms desk saying no action is going on for weeks with this upside. One reply for a trade desk today was it is so sloooooow, that they are fall asleep, that should tell you something about this price movement up it has no volume so no conviction and the big money is waiting for prices to go higher to short.
I have no idea how long we will trade in this low volume situation but when we do get the volume in it will more than likely be on the downside.
AAPL etc going back to new higher you better sell while the going is good for prices.
Some scenarios to consider here
- price breaks below 900 before testing 915 (very bearish)
- price consolidates near 915 (very bullish)
- price touches the 915 zone and gets slammed (very bearish)
Remember there is still an upside projection of 943. The fact the bears could not break 875 hard makes me think that projection is still active.
Also if any readers of the blog trade currencies please send me an email at marketjedi@gamil.com
Saturday, May 23, 2009
Numbers to watch
Why I have not been posting alot of numbers iS becauSe the day ranges are so tight I can't get PRECISE projections to work with. The wider the ranges are the easier it is, as the narrow range is just sign of choppiness and sideways action but never the less I always try to use large time frames which are less distorted to see if there are any projections to look at.
Presently I have a downside projection of 847 on the S&P and an upside projection of 943 which is a gap fill and 'should' provide heavy resistance to get through at least on the first try.
The 847 level is very key because if we don't hold there we will definitely see 820/823 in a rush. My scenario here is this: if we see 847 before 943, 847/850 is a screaming buy!!!! Why? because unlike most other bears I don't believe we crash and burn so easily to see new lows, well not now but definitely later. So my scenario would be if we head down to this area and bounce we will make it up to the last swing high and head much higher and then complete this dreaded wave 4 (or 2 which some think it is). We will see soon enough.
MARKETJEDI
Presently I have a downside projection of 847 on the S&P and an upside projection of 943 which is a gap fill and 'should' provide heavy resistance to get through at least on the first try.
The 847 level is very key because if we don't hold there we will definitely see 820/823 in a rush. My scenario here is this: if we see 847 before 943, 847/850 is a screaming buy!!!! Why? because unlike most other bears I don't believe we crash and burn so easily to see new lows, well not now but definitely later. So my scenario would be if we head down to this area and bounce we will make it up to the last swing high and head much higher and then complete this dreaded wave 4 (or 2 which some think it is). We will see soon enough.
MARKETJEDI
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