Weekend Updates

Got a few things to talk about but the first thing I would like to talk about is the 30yr bond. Although i think bounce are heading towards PAR i believe we will get a bounce here to the 122.1 area, there is also a possibility for a extended move to 127'3 if earnings are significantly worse than expected and there is a flight to quality of the bonds..
Next the price action in the S&P have now changed to negative and I have a projection down to the 821/819 area based on my analysis. Now the only caveat is when as I do have a negative time frame analysis till the end of the month of July, does that mean we head to 821 before then or do we attack that area after is too early to tell but one thing is certain we have developed a cycle pattern to lower price from here into the end of the month.
Next there is an obvious head and shoulder pattern in the charts which is setting up lower prices. Now if the pattern morphs it would definitely hit out below targets ad leave the bulls in a stalemate but not complete doom. As I have been saying I think there is one last hooray before the bear REALLY returns.

Remember we are in the summer mode here so I would not be going out heavy on plays, just stick to the bigger picture analysis and play off the larger patterns.

MARKETJEDI

875 Area

875 Area again working as a point of control. We closed @ 874.50.

Have a great weekend. I will post some charts this weekend.


MARKETJEDI

Good Luck

Leaving now and might not be back till lunch or not. Remember the S&P levels noted and how that 872 area is important.
Definitely we will be making an impulsive move here soon if I was a betting man I would say down but don't lose sight of the fact that we are in a 1-2-3 pattern which mean we should have one last push up before we start a real decline.


MARKETJEDI

Crude Oil

Crude Oil cracked again. Went mid $58 during the overnight session. I will be taking off the USO puts at the open plus a gazillion :)

Rocking

MARKETJEDI

Note for tomorow

I will only be in for the first 2 hours of the day tomorrow. The 885 level today proved to be the area of resistance for the market as noted yesterday.
In general I think we are winding up for a impulsive move and as most of you who have been following my blog knows it is not a prediction of direction but of the move. If we get a move below 872 area I would be next looking for an impulsive more towards that 851 number and on the upside again 904 should be the upside impulse possibly 911.50 on a extension on the upside.
We are in the summer dull drums reinforced by today's low volume which was tracking at something like 25% the 2 month average which is very low as the last 3 months volume has been light. Now it is very important to watch the next impulse move to see where the volume comes in as I am 100% sure it should be playable as a continuation play of reversal based on the volume.
A lot of stuff going on but aren't being focused on by the press for example talk of additional stimulus needed, that the first stimulus wasn't effective, that companies are still holding off on hiring, housing prices look like they will still be falling and the list goes on.

MARKETJEDI

TICK

Getting some tick divergence on this last downside , be careful if you are short.

I will be off for the rest of day. If the tick divergence kicks in look for 885 to be tested.

See you tomorrow

875

Trading around that 875 area again. More than likely this area will turn out being the developing area point of control for the markets. Again upside resistance should be that 885 level noted earlier.