trend

Seem like we having a new trend of gapping up on mondays and not looking back. Look for tuesday for us to pull back and test the gap left over from today. Not much to report on with these gap and go type of days with little volume.

On another Robert Prechter said to his readers that you should be short for the long term here because this is all BS. I am just reporting what I read I am not making a recommendation whatsoever but you all know Prechter is such a mentor for me.

Early monday

Folks remember this shorten holiday week is usually an upward biased week so take careful note of that trend.
Gold off to the races again.

Crude

So love this pattern on crude. It is so textbook

Gold

Gold looks like $1200 in the cards

US Dollar

Markets Update

We are in a difficult period to gauge what we are doing structure wise in the markets.
It's just one of those situations where we won't truly know what structure has traced until after the fact, which is not uncommon to most technicians.
It makes it hard for position traders, and to some extent, swing traders like myself to position a solid trade due to the tighten ranges here.
The 15 minute pit session chart shows an island reversal. This is basically an exhaustion gap that is followed by a breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
I am counting the move off the 1112.25 H as a 5 wave structure. You could argue for a 3, but I think it should count as a 5.
This implies that after a retrace process we should see an additional 5 waves down, at minimum.
It appears that we have 5 small waves up from the 1085.25 L, which I have labeled as a sub-minuette degree a or i.
Drilling down further, we can see that it appears that micro [A] is complete. We should get a small [B] retracement (levels on chart) when globex opens, followed by a [C] leg lower.
At that point, I would expect to see a 5 wave structure higher of sub-minuette degree.
Any trade through the 1085.25 L would invalidate this view.
The weekly view suggests that we should see additional downside pressure on price.
This past week saw price action fill the long standing gap from October 08.
Also to note we had a cycle high due and a new moon which usual signals a reversal in the market. All this suggests we may see lower price, though never a certainty.

Soybeans

A breakout week for beans. Price traded through the 1029.50 H, and more importantly, the 1041.50 H.
This more than likely signals that primary [C] of a double zigzag of cycle c has commenced.
There is still an outside chance that we are still tracing primary [B], though I believe those odds are low.
Upside targets are where (3) = (1) at 1100.50, and (3) = 161.8% of (1) at 1192.75. [C] = [A] at 1174.
Drilling down intraday, you see that price is having a struggle getting past the 1050 level. This happens to be the 127.2% expansion of (2), which does get my attention, but my guess is it will be short lived as resistance.
Bottom line - It was sort of a messy start to this leg, but things appear to be progressing in impulsive fashion. I am near-term bullish this market until proven otherwise.