Out of commission

Out of commission with severe sinus attack and cold. This one is bad and i usually deal with one serious attack per year almost on call this time of year.






New highs for the SPY were hit last week, but as we can see on the chart, the volume is weak on this advance. This is not a bullish scenario, but trying to pick the top of this advance is going on about a year now, has been a fool's game, and an expensive one.

I believe a pullback is brewing, but what I believe has nothing to do with how the market will act. I'll wait for signs that the Bears are making a stand, and then look to get on board a continuation pattern, if it sets up.

the lame volume and grinding action in the market is making follow through and volatility non existent. If history is our guide, it won't last forever, it will only feel that way!
Until then, trade cautiously in this brutally choppy market.

Boring

Nothing much is going except for Oil. This structure has been in action for weeks but it finally went higher. I am really thinking that so early in the year and oil at this level doesn't sit well with those who are calling for lower oil prices. Most of you know I am a long term oil bull.

I will do some charts later to see what is the next level higher. We definitely need a close above $82.30 to scare the shorts out of this trade.

Back

I am back but feeling sick (Voice gone) from the hectic traveling. Oh well such is life to make a buck :) Wish I was a movie star :)
Anyways not much working here- market is just whiplashing around in a range still. Seems like no one wants to make any huge bets Why should you!!!

OIL: Target hit

Finally hit the $82 target here on Oil. Took awhile to break through the resistance but that was the target on the structure.

This week

Still away in beautiful California but here is an update





The S&P 500 broke through the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of its push down from the January highs, which now suggests a retest of the previous highs is coming. \

One of the stronger signs in the market currently is the action of the Russell 2000, which is the one major index that has broken out to fresh highs. When the small caps lead, it tends to be a bullish sign on the short term.

Watch for a retest of highs by the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P and see how that test acts. If we fail to break with good volume, it may be a double top, strong small caps or not.

watch early weakness Monday for a buying op that carries over from last week's strength.

Wednesday - Pause

We have now reached the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the swing down since mid-January, and have back to back pause days there. this sets the market up for a put up or shut up move. Either we continue the grind it higher, or the bulls are rebuffed and we swing back to the downside. More sideways congestion is also possible, but not probable since we are at a key inflection point.

We may be on hold until after the Job Numbers either way, which are set to be released pre-market on Friday, March 5th. Will this number really make a difference?

Resistance

1125 is currently resistance-

Will be traveling tomorrow till next week tuesday