Looking at some charts over the last hour and I must say we could be in for a rough ride after today's action. It is entirely possible I could be wrong and we have seen this type of action before but this could be the beginning of a mild sell off. The main number to watch is last week's S&P lows with volume behind it.
If you are long I suggest going flat here to see what shakes.
Wednesday, June 1, 2011
Dive
This is why I am not forcing anything here. We just meandering in a tight range between 1310 and 1350 but today's action seem to be breaking to the lower end of the range.
Data has been weak actually very weak. Geez they thought housing was going to come back. I said that 3 yrs ago housing is DEAD, no rebound forget a bout it as they would say.
Two hours left in the day watch 1317 area for some support if we get there also I do have a projection from last week of 1295 if we do continue to drive down.
So up yesterday strong and down today strong- SEE SAW action. Stay out
Data has been weak actually very weak. Geez they thought housing was going to come back. I said that 3 yrs ago housing is DEAD, no rebound forget a bout it as they would say.
Two hours left in the day watch 1317 area for some support if we get there also I do have a projection from last week of 1295 if we do continue to drive down.
So up yesterday strong and down today strong- SEE SAW action. Stay out
One week later
One week later and the markets are at the same level. Patience here but one thing I will like to note on is the volume. We are going to break one way or the other soon when volume comes in but it is my opinion this break will not be the defining more of the market.
So if we break lower I would be a buyer and if we break higher I would be planning on shorts.
Hopefully we get some action soon
So if we break lower I would be a buyer and if we break higher I would be planning on shorts.
Hopefully we get some action soon
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Chop Chop
Market doing a whole lot of nothing but I think we will get an attempt to go higher then we will pullback more. Looking for sub 1200 if we break 1305 in the day time session. For now looking for some resistance in the 1328 and 1334 area
Monday, May 23, 2011
Numbers
If we can bounce today over 1318 we should target 1323.50. One the downside there are two close areas to watch if we fall below lows of days 1308.50 then 1306.50
So what Next
So we are getting a deep pullback here in the markets. Futures are down over 10 S&P points an hour before the open and we looking weak. I have been patient over the last few weeks when everyone thought we would spike up higher immediately but there were warning signs.
Right now it gets complicated for me, why? well here it is in short time and price projections are not matching here at all. Time projection are telling me we are here at a close to a cycle top but price has already started the decline BUT I must note that cycles also shows a cycle low in June/ July time frame so this pullback 'should' be buyable somewhere in the next week weeks. I feel much more confident when time and price are in concert with each other and they aren't here.
If I am to follow the sequence of what is going on my analysis would lead me to say we are going to get a much deeper pullback and it will shake out much of the weak longs.
Remember what I have been saying for the last 3-4 months this move up is on very light volume and this might be the first real sign of the crack.
Stay tuned
Right now it gets complicated for me, why? well here it is in short time and price projections are not matching here at all. Time projection are telling me we are here at a close to a cycle top but price has already started the decline BUT I must note that cycles also shows a cycle low in June/ July time frame so this pullback 'should' be buyable somewhere in the next week weeks. I feel much more confident when time and price are in concert with each other and they aren't here.
If I am to follow the sequence of what is going on my analysis would lead me to say we are going to get a much deeper pullback and it will shake out much of the weak longs.
Remember what I have been saying for the last 3-4 months this move up is on very light volume and this might be the first real sign of the crack.
Stay tuned
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