I have been singing on the notion of deflation for a couple of months now. I have a few readers who email me and tell me gold is going to $1500 and higher but I always end by saying to them this is a different time and we are in a wealth destruction cycle, deflation as they call it.
This problem with deflation is that you can't buy ANYTHING as all assets will decline in value. No where to hide except for those who know how to trade highly sophisticated instruments. I keep on stressing Buy and hold is Over folks if you don't released this thought of buy and hold all your retirement and kids college funds will be eatten up by deflation and that's just a fact. I know I will get some remarks as usual, like who is this idiot again and so forth but I notice all those who write when I state something and then it comes true never write back and say you were so right. Well I dont need confirmation because I stand by my analysis whenever I make my statements.
Now where do I stand on the markets? Well I thought for awhile we would get a santa rally and we did get one but it was so muted you would have never known if you weren't a trader:) I think some are waiting on Obama's inauguration to trade up stocks and yes it might be a possibility but I am saying this now it wont last! Did anyone just see we are at a 16 year high on unemployment? I thought the $700 Billion bailout was suppose to help us? Well we are 1/2 way through those monies and there is no relief in sight. I said form the beginning to bail out dying industries is just crazy, banking, automotive industries wont be the leaders when we get out of this downturn so why on earth bail them out, it is just crazy. It shows that we the voters have no powers and it is the lobbyist who control what is done. The political system is totally messed up but up till now no one cared as long as they were making money. Now that the powers that be are now loosing money I bet in the next 2-6 years politics will change dramatically in this country. One thing I learn living in this country is do anything but mess with their money as everything comes down to the dollar and nothing else. There are no principles, no loyalty, no humanity, just the almighty dollar. Imagine they stop people from praying and saying God but there you go look on your money and you see "in God we trust" :), very ironic to me sometimes how they use God on the money of a nation. Jesus said give unto ceasar what is ceasar's, and that interpret God and money has no room together.
But I regress as usual. I dont have much positive to say on the markets but to say you folks better listen and find alternative method than buying and holding regular stocks because you will be in a world of pain. DOW 4500 is on the way in the not too distant future.
Lets see if we get a pivot point in the market here, I hope we do so some people can cash out or we will be hitting that 2008 lows sooner than anyone expected.
MARKETJEDI
Sunday, January 11, 2009
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