Staying Alert for 2009

There is a lot of complacency in the market at the moment. When there is so much complacency it usually means the present trend is not sustainable long term. The FED has completely wrecked our financial structure that I believe the worst is yet to come. Having said, that I am reconfirming my stand here, that I am leaning to the long side pre-inauguration of Obama. The general feeling out there is Obama is going to be a cure all to the ills of the last 8 years. I am not going to be political here but it is going to be very hard to under perform the present administration when it comes to economic policies. My problem with Obama is that he has picked no new blood for his economic committees and none who are out of the box thinkers to help us out of this crisis, he is virtually recycling all of the Clinton's staffers which I think is out of date in their thinking just like Bush picked numerous persons who worked in his father's administration and that proved to be lethal.
All I want the government to do is tell the truth and stop railroading us for the elite of society. It would be great if for 2009 the government was totally transparent and we deal with the bad news as it comes and we feel we are all in it together.
The first trading days should be positive and I expect an uptrend into this week. There is a bunch of smaller cap stocks that should move this week as they are classified as 'laggers'. I want to state now that I believe that the DOW will 100% see 4500 in the next 18 months. We will see a lot of upside action because of the new administration euphoria but it will be short lived. The only way we don't get to DOW 4500 within 18 months would be the total destruction of the US dollar. The devaluation of the US dollar will put us along side Japan as a low growth nation for years. The long term danger in my opinion is not really the financial crisis but the devaluation of the dollar. The financial system will almost 100% be nationalized to save us from a virtual financial destruction and I don't know if Wall Street will be the same after all is said and done.
In closing this will be a trading market for years to come, forget buy and hold, that philosophy is DEAD. I think the FED has put us in a bad situation and we will be paying for it dearly.



MARKETJEDI