These last three weeks in the market has been very difficult to analyze. Often when you see movement like this it usually means we are in a consolidation cycle or wave and we are merely pushing and pulling between the bulls and the bears. Today action is a perfect example why you have to stay out of the market till we break out of this consolidation. We gave back 300 points on the DOW and then rallied 100+points to end the day positive. Now if you weren't a market watcher you might be like oh the DOW was +89 today but it was one wild ride.
I think we will be in this torture till earnings seasons next month and also till we get the news out about the mark to market and whatever other kind of manipulation they want to put on the market. The problem is near term folks will side step the problems underlining the markets and think these actions will help and send us higher but in the longer term is will just be disasterous because the market MUST be allowed to correct itself without intervention, all they are basically doing is delaying the inevitable and for most of us get killed once again
There is a good shot from the charts I am looking at we are close to a intermediate top here but the problem is that we have windows dressing and most manager will try to fudge their books as usual because March was an up month. What happens in April will all be earnings related, I hope the big guns of GE, Microsoft, Google, Apple and the Banks report good news are we could fall hard. My best guess is we will push up into earnings and half way through we start selling off. Right here is NO MAN'S LAND and it must be respected there is nothing we can do till the market really tips it hands. Play light as it is total chop fest out there.
MARKETJEDI
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
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