My thoughts

I have been on and off this week due to a personal matter but I told myself I would take 3 hours today to do some homework so readers don't think I deserted them. I posted updates for crude, bonds, dollar, corn etc but I would like now to address the indexes.
It has been tough trading the indexes for the last 3 months but one thing to always remember is that the market follows trends. The trends of earnings runnings and the seasonality of the market must never be underestimated.
Although we have screamed much since March 09, we are moving on much lower volume with negative divergences on all technical parameters like breadth. There is a high possibility of a peak here BUT not the peak in this bear market rally, YES BEAR market rally. After doing some initial work, I have some target about 90 points higher here on the S&P. Do we get there, possible but I would be shorting there 1000% if we hit 1172/8 area. We need to remember here folks that although it sounds and looks good that the market is grinding higher we must look at the technicals and fundamentals of the markets and that of the overall economy. Big money are all viewing this is a bear market and to be honest it is! just look at the earnings, etc, they are terrible. If you really analyze it, the S&P is now more expensive here than when it was 1300, believe it or not! and the value of the almighty dollar does make the scenario any better.
Now how will it play out? Hmmm only a guess here but I would love to see us make a technical high here in the next few days and then get a pullback below that 1025 low we did recently. What that will do is shake out the weak longs and then we would amount another rally maybe in the Spring to higher highs. After that I would definitely looking to short and when I say short I mean big time no holds barred as this would be the start of the great bear wave 3 in my opinion, which will blow investor's confidence out of the water.
Folks the banks are not performing here. I think one of the real big banks are going to suffer huge losses in the next 6 months and I have my bet on two in particular but I will update on them later. Remember Wall Street want to cash in on their bonuses so don't expect us to crash and burn before end of year it WON'T happen. They need to keep the musical chairs running to collect from the dump mom and pops investors.

I would sit on my hands if I were a long term investor in equities here. I would be very very cautious here.