I am back

I am back but just for a couple of days as I have to go to the Big apple later this week for about 10 days. I had a very enjoyable holidays with family and friends visiting from out of town but now I am dead tired. On top of that I know my 10 days in New York will add to my fatigue so I might need a holiday after that:). I will try to post during my travels but it will be difficult so don't expect anything much.
So for New Years gift my home builder gave me a gift that I didn't want! Another $30k drop in the base price of my home model :) well not unexpected but the amount was! I wonder how many people will begin to think they have no equity and it is better just to walk away. I am being very serious here, that might be the best move though some people might bash those who do but as I always say, would you do a 10k repair on your car if it is only worth 2k? At the beginning of last year I spoke about the main focus for years to come would be the lost of net worth for most americans as I didn't see an end to the weakness in the housing market or a meaningful reversal in the equity markets and I continue to see more of the same.
What will 2010 bring?? Hopefully some volume so we can get a nice move to play like in 2008 but mostly my instincts tell me that some time between now and May we will find a meaningful top in this rebound and head south again. As I said long ago I didn't believe we would test that March low again for 2009 and I think that goes for 2010. I believe 2011 will be the time wave correction that will send us much lower than the March 2009 lows but we will see soon enough.
Remember we could end up consolidating for a long time just like what happened in the last 4 months of 2009, low volume and just range bound, this time range bound could last for months to years and ultimately kill the mind set of buy and hold completely and dry up investors appetite for equities and lead to the last leg of a secular bear market. At that point I believe that will be the buy of the ages.
Lets see how the January effect plays out but I would not place any bets on that again! just remember what happened last year. Folks all I have to say is that I play whatever I see in front of me but I assure you we wont be higher 5 years from now so be very careful investing in equities for the long haul.

Marketjedi