OIL

Oil looks like it is in a serious sell off here- Man get that oil down I have a bet against Cramer. . Please goto $95 please :)
Just a little humor there but yes Oil to $95 as I said last month before $115.

Commodities pullback

Finally we are seeing some pullback in the commodities and commodity related stocks. Oil is down $4, gold is down $10 and the agro stocks are down. Maybe this is the fast money moving out of the commodities here. I been saying a pullback should happen for over a month now, I will see how this plays out here, maybe we can catch some plays.
I was done trading the first 30 minutes of the day as I made my profit goal for the day plus I have a headache. It is 12:30. lunch time period so not much is going on, will update tonight on some of my thoughts shorter term here

Government giving FED more Power

This has serious implications which I wont get into this early in the morning. The FED (Federal Reserve) is a private institution and not governed by the Government. Giving more power for our financial infrastructure to a private entity is giving up the nation's power. This is the worst move I have ever seen in Finance. Bernanke is the WORST fed chairman EVER, but it seems that the political pressure of the election is twisting the arms of those who would normally object to such moves.
Well the announcement will come at 10 am this morning so I will be watching and see how the market reacts.

April is here

Well folks just one trading day left in March and we are in April ringing in another earnings season. I am glad to say I have my sinuses under control and feel alot better so I am ready to go this week. Most traders should be back this week and I expect the volume to pick up drastically. Right now the market is trading very weak but without volume I cannot judge which way the momentum will go. Last weekend I thought the bulls would make a fight of it and push us much higher but all of the move came on Monday and the rest of the week was very lame.
With that said I am hoping volume comes in tomorrow , so we can get rack up some huge winners. As said a couple weeks ago I am compiling a list of stocks which I am going to hold over the long haul SHORT as i believe the market in going to be in one world of hurt. A few stocks are acting surprisingly strong over the last few days are AAPL, RIMM and MA. MA I expected to move higher as they have earnings coming up with RIMM, but AAPL seems to now be a value play as it has drop tremendously since it highs in December. I still hate the financials and I have been saying the financials should keep up down longer term. I will be playing SKF long again when I get another minor buy signal.


Good Luck this week and stay safe

Pit traders

Traders in the Chicago futures pit are saying that MONDAY next week might be a huge sell off. Who know but just something to watch for. Market is very tough here better to play small or not at all

LM options

Option are now $6.50 up $1.
Ge options down 40 cents. now trading @2.1

TRADE CALL: LM $60 April PUTS

Playing this on news of liquidity problem at some of its closed end funds.
cost is $5.50 risk is all.

YAWN

Another boring day. This week the volume has been exceptionally weak. Only thing I can think of is that we are in spring break season. Alot of trading are taking off to be with their kids.


YAWN

SHORTS

I know some people are going to read my thoughts and say how can I short. Well you can't short in a regular account or an retirement account but you can be long ultrashort tracker stocks which is essentially shorting the market. A few of them are
1)SKF- Buying this is shorting the financials
2)SCC- Buying this is shorting Consumer services.
3)SJH, TWM-Buying these is shorting the russell
4)QID-Buying this is shorting the Nasdaq 100
5)DXD -Buying this is shorting the DOW.

When I remember more I will post them.

Market is in trouble

This market is really in a hole to say the least. The economy is screwed and so is the markets. Everyday we listen to the talking heads on tv talking about FED saving us etc bailing out banks really! Let the FED bail us out of the Oil crisis too, the Ozone level thinning too while they are at it - I mean really the think the FED a PRIVATE institution can save us.
People made bad investments. Last I looked you make a bad investment, you lose on it, you have to suck it up and move on and try to make a better investment next time! Do we live in a land of whiners? I've made a TON of bad investments that lost a boatload of money. I threw away crazy money when I was younger on stupid things I thought would be great investments it didn't work, I think I should call Bernanke today so he can bail me out.
Where do you draw the line? Besides, even if a case could be made as to why the Fed should do one of the dumbest ideas ever thrown out there,which is bailing out homeowners where is the money coming from? There is no difference doing this and just wiping the value of the US Dollar down to zero. That's where we are heading, If the Fed (when) bail out homeowners they will be making the single biggest mistake in the history of the US Economy. We will 100% be headed into a DEPRESSION that is likely to last for MANY years. They will be dooming our country to the worst economic crisis we have ever known, and they will render our currency worthless. They may very well bankrupt the entire country. Bernanke has ZERO clue about what he is doing.
The next thing on the horizon is our $600 checks. Whipppe- I can't wait to get mine. What the heck can $600 do in these times. buy gas for the SUV for a month. Yep we will get our $600 and be a OK wow I can't wait. What American economists and politicians never realize is that the bandaid economics and politics eventually make things worst. They are just delaying the inevitable, the same thing happened with the internet bubble. This is the perfect storm.
I still think a Major bank will go under for sure. I think two bank which are doomed are Washington Mutual (WM) and Sovereign Bancorp (SOV). Forget about the Freddie Mac and Fanny Mae they are goign to lose some serious money in this spiral housing market eventually crash. We aren't seen nothing yet folks, if we let it all crash at the bottom we will generate real jobs and we fill finally push out of this downturn.
I hope I am wrong but I am rarely wrong with these things. I hope we bounce from here very soon so I can set up some shorts and get rich from the ignorance of others. I was bullish at the beginning of the week for at least the short term but the trading action has let me back into my long term bear mode. I would as a trader love I mean love us to bounce so I can short the world.


Don't worry I will try my best to guide my readers.
The most money I ever made in the markets was during the Internet meltdown as I was short. I knew Nasdaq 5000 was just Utopia, we are at the beginning at another Utopia of the FED saving us.

Here is the deal

After hours Oracle missed earnings and that's not good. Why? Oracle has been one of the few very bright spots in tech when it comes to earnings, saying that I think we will have an awful earnings season. It will get rough in tech land and Nasdaq wont hold up without tech out performing. Well there is my idea about going to 13000, thrown through the window. I am very doubtful here and the best thing to do is just to play some options or short the weak sectors like housing and the brokers. I still think they bounce us into end of month for window dressing but April will surely be VERY interest.
Keep the power dry as they would say I think we will get some awesome moves soon.

I am working on a list right now if we turn down should be very very profitable

Boring Day

Boring day indeed but I am glad because as I am sick. Tomorrow if we do gap up I will be shorting, especially Google and ADS. Google got downgraded today and any weak day should send this one firmly in the red and ADS i have on my radar a couple of days now and it just looks terrible. This one I have no doubt will be alot lower in a year from now.
Although I wasn't trading today I did send out an alert on my GE calls which I will ride into GE's earnings and also mentioned MA short if it broke it 10am lows, which it didn't so that trade it now void.
Volume is very anemic for the past two days and that's not a good sign for the upside. I still believe we will grind higher but we are in no rush here at all, just better to stay small or wait it out. I think the big active traders are taking this week slow or off as it is spring break time. The pit in chicago trading futures was only 50-60% today, so we should be careful not to over trade here as we can be whipped around more easily.
I rather stick to the trend here in the meantime. Also look if we get some weakness on the brokers tomorrow. I am watching GS for a little pullback below 176.5 to scalp a few point.

Talk to you tomorrow heading to bed early to get better

TRADE CALL :GE $35 April calls

Buying them here for $2.50, play is for earnings

TRADE CALL :MA

For the aggressive traders - Shorting MA below 10 am lows. It is now 9: am before market open don't short here. Short MA only if it makes a 10 am lows. Good shot it trades down today. We will see.

TRADE VOID- MON

Those who emailed about the stocks I think might be monster plays. Please VOID MON here this morning. Stock is going to gap up huge on news of the company boosting fiscal year earnings. That just pisses me off but at least I know I was right. Maybe someone over MON reading the BLOG hehehe and emailed me about the monster plays, oh well.

Don't buy MON on such a huge gap up. Trade is VOID

Merrill Lynch rumor

Rumors out this morning that Merril Lynch will write off an additional $8Billion in derivative. Again it is a rumor so be careful here. The broker might sell off today if this rumor gets traction or is TRUE.

Storm brewing

Well, we certainly nailed it! Market did indeed rally, though much more than I was hoping for. Now? We probably pull in a little. I think we get a little range to break out of to the upside.Unless, of course, there's some news that cracks us again. That's certainly possible. Baring bad news I do think we can scale higher without that much of a pullback. Ultimately we go LOWER, but for now we still look like some back and filling and then potentially a range breakout to the 13,000s. From there, if we even get there, I would think we get a nice selloff and break to the downside.

Here is the problem, its kinda a perfect storm eventually. You have the Fed bailing everyone and everything out. Wonderful, hurray for the Fed. Unfortunately its going to catch up, it has to. The Fed can't just print money with no ramifications. People are giddy that the Fed is doing all this, but its politically motivated and it can't do anything but put a bandaid on the issues. At least thats my take, but I'm just a trader and not an economist.

What a call

What a call on the market- Seem like the bulls trying to buy up the market in the last week to window dress up portfolios. They have to as this quarter is the worst since 02

TRADE CALL

Got MA calls for $20. We will see if this one is a winner too. Just think risk reward is good here.

TRADE CALL

I am buying a small call position in MA(Mastercard) at the open. I will be looking at the $200 calls currently trading at 18.90. I am risking all on it , NO STOPS!!! on that trade.

BULLISH HERE

Yes I am turn BULLISH here short term. Right now I am going to play the contrarian in the market as everyone is saying doom and gloom, I am a TRADER and that's what I will do trade the markets. Last week thursday I wrote that the short side seems to be played out on the short term horizon and more money should be made on the long side in the short term. I can see us getting a pretty sizable move here near term. In fact, I could see us over YEARLY highs in the near future before we turn back down again and get a pretty massive selloff.
So, I am looking to get long early this week on some beaten down piglets. I think some of the tech names should get a bounce. I will say that if we do get a decent bounce and you're in the right stocks this could be a VERY nice time to rack up some huge gains. The best thing is, even if that's the wrong call we can take small loss and reverse.
I think there is a very good shot be go back to the 13000/13500 area in the next couple of weeks and I really hope so and I do think longer term we will head much lower. Allowing for a substantial bounce here will make it better for us to head into some nice shorts for the downside.
One another note I have two stocks that I believe will get a HUGE bounce and if I am correct you can make your year on these two plays. If anyone is interested I will only be sending them privately via email NOT ON THE BLOG.

Have a great week

TRADE CALL:OIH Puts

Out here @ $18.50. More than 110% profit. It took awhile but got there. sweet.

TRADE CALL :OIH $180 PUTS

Remember options expire today so cash out of those OIH 180 puts purchased @8.75 today!! tomorrow is a holiday so all March options expire today. Seem we can get $15 on them so almost a DOUBLE, wow just totally rocking here

TRADE CALL :OIH $180 PUTS

POT and CF PUTS

In my notes last night I made mention that i bought these put at market close yesterday. I was too slow to post them for readers to even play them and will watch them today. I think my options will open up 100% as far as I can see by the pre market quotes. I am so sorry I didn't get those out earlier yesterday so many of you could play them.

Oil overnight

Oil traded as low as $99.59. $12 cut in 2 days.

Commodities Next

Commodities next elevator down!!! I kind of said this would happen but was off around a month too early. Speculation in the commodities markets have been on a rampage for a few months especially since fast money has been playing Oil, Gold, and the grains. Today say the first meaningful crack in GOLD, down $60 should be the first of it. I said it a few days ago when Cramer spoke about Gold going to 1600, I said I bet it reaches 875/850 before it reaches $1100, well lets see what happens.
One thing I am trying to teach on this blog is that of crowding trades.
Crowding trades refers to the act of too many players in one sector play. What happens is like having a party with the same size cake but inviting more people will lead to everyone getting a smaller and smaller slice of cake. This is how bubbles are formed and busted. Right now I have no doubt some commodities are in bubble territory and my main one is GOLD. Oil I think will get a pullback but Oil will go higher longer term as population and industrial growth increases. One other area of commodities I think is in a bubble is fertilizer and wheat and based on this I am shorting some of the high flyers in these sectors.
This evening I took puts on POT and CF but it was very almost at the closing bell so I didn't post on the blog. I will see how they work tomorrow and if they trade down I will initiate a TRADE CALL on them officially. One other reason for the selling of these stocks is of the deleveraging of the financial risks in the market.
There was talk today that Lehman picked up a bunch of Bear Stearns business and some prime brokerage was a part of it. Prime brokerage is the part of the business that for a big part, services hedge funds. Hedge funds crave leverage ( Carlyle Group received $35 for every dollar they had under management) That ended in bankruptcy this week. The conversation that Lehman had with hedge funds today, only guessing,went something like this, "we'll do business with you but in this environment the leverage we will give you is going to be much less than what your used to." When your prime broker has this conversation with you, one of the options is to start selling and reducing exposure, especially your winners, you know the positions you owned on 8 to leverage. That is one of the reasons for the unwinding in commodities today and I really feel it has only just begun.

Very POOR showing

This is a very poor showing my the bulls. I guess the right and only way is to short ALL bounces and the smart money still things the market will go lower. I really thought the market would get a bit in gear higher after all that FED intervention.
Anyways, commodities are getting the pullback I been talking about the last 2 weeks. Gold down $60, oil down $6 and more will come. I will be looking at some fibonacci tonight to see where we can go , just unbelievable we are getting no traction, well the day isn't over yet.

Update on GOLD

Gold seem to be getting cracked here lets see if it can goto my 875 target. Good one Cramer said we going higher. Let's see if I win the bet :)

Thoughts on the BROKERS

I do think the brokers which had the best bounce here will head lower. GS I will be watching closely as it is the strongest and the first sign of weakness I will be buying some SKF again. I had a dream that GS was at $121 and my dreams always comes through. We will see how far the brokers can go on this run up. GS first resistance is 10 points higher from here.

Thoughts

There are some thoughts on the street of a bottom. Today Cramer said we have bottom and called for investors to buy. My thoughts are this on what i saw today: The FED is in save Wall street mode more than anything else. They realize the importance of the institution of Wall Street and are going out fully to make sure it remains the world's economic nucleus.
Right now you just can't fight the Fed anymore, way to powerful. I have had a blast on the short side, and made a lot of money, but the easy money has been made and I don't want to be a pig. Of course there will be individual stocks I will short but as far as inverse short funds, it will become much harder to make the easy money on the market indices. Bear Stearns is finished and Lehman and Goldman exploded today on good numbers so I really think most of the bed news is out. Don't get me wrong, we will still see more fallout but the affect on the market going forward MIGHT be muted. I would not buy financials here though. They have moved too much in here and we have to wait for more logical set ups.
I will reassess in a few trading days. I think longer term we will go lower but in the mean time longs might be correct here

NICE move

Nice move on the market here higher. As said last night the FED day announcement is usually upward biased and so we see it here higher in lieu of interest rates lowering decision.

TRADE CALL:WM Update

Rumors are abound of a WM takeover- Covering short here -.40.

TRADE CALL: WM

As notes last night I am building a position short in WM. I am stepping in some here @$10 premarket SHORT. Stop is $11.75.

OK FOLKS

Ok Folks I think we will have some more news to drop the brokers and banks and I am letting you in on two plays I might initiate tomorrow.
Firstly WM (Washington Mutual) might be a nail in the coffin from the Bear Sterns fail out. They were targeted to be taken over by Bear Stern but since there is no more Bear Sterns where does that leave WM. Wamu as it is called on the street might be a tough sale as the mortgage situation seem to be getting worst. WM might see $2 if not bought out. I will be shorting lots everyday for the next week or so to build a position SHORT. I will set my stops at $11.75, so that's a $2.5 position from here.
Second play is IMB(Indy Mac) which I think will go under. It is undercapitalized and is one of the worst banks currently trading on the exchange. Currently this stock is under $5 so it might be hard to borrow to short but I might play the $5 April puts if I can't short it.
Remember tomorrow is FED meeting and we will go in dead mode after the first 90 minutes of trading. Also remember we usually have an upward bias into and the day after FED meetings so I would be lightening up on stock if you are SHORT. Today action also wasn't bad in lieu of the news and might have some substance to base a rally.
All rallies will be short lived but no sense in being short if the market rallies a few hundred points.
Today was a EXCELLENT day for me as everything worked like a charm. Lets keep it close to the vest this week as options expiration and the FED meeting will sure push us around.
I am also looking in to some commodities short as we speak because I do believe we will get a substantial pullback in the commodities soon very soon.

TRADE CALL:SOV Update

Take 1/2 off here SOV +$2
SWEET

ONLY WINNERS HERE!!!!!!!!!!

NICE

People just listen up. This market has been toast for a long time and i have bee saying it, it just doesn't know it yet. I think Commodities will get cracked here too. Commodities especially gold and the grains will get killed here soon, just a matter of time.
GOOGLE - DEAD!
BIDU -DEAD!
CITIBANK- DEAD!
LEHMAN-DEAD!
FNM-DEAD!

MARKET DEAD!!!
I would love to see the most devious position play out here. Market rallies and everyone and their mother will say wow that was the bottom NOT! and get killed.
Talk to you later.
Keep on ringing the register on those shorts

WEEEEEEEEE DOWN WE GO

Where should I start!!!! I will first start by saying I told you so and secondly PEOPLE need to goto JAIL over this crisis. World markets are just opening overseas and are locked limit down as the news of Bears Sterns total collapse and sell out to JP Morgan for $2 a share is sending markets downward. Imagine this stock was $159 last yr WOW. There are obviously serious problems going on at Wall Street and this will no doubt be the first of a number of collapse that will occur in coming months.
Anyone think Bear Sterns was the only firm doing highly leverage trading in the market are totally wrong. Hedge funds, mutual funds and trading institutions use these highly leverage tools to make more money on smaller capital requirements everyday. I dont know what will happen at the end of day tomorrow but I am sure some time tomorrow we will be down over 380 points on the Dow.
What I see happening in the US markets is the same exact thing that happened to Japan in the 90s of massive inflation, devalued Yen, real estate bust and increase unemployment. The most important note we should take away from the lessons of Japan's 90s financial mistakes is that it has taken almost 15 yrs to fix the problems.
I will be a very interesting week and I think this week will be a week if you are a excellent trader to make lots of MONEY. This news should gap us down limit down tomorrow morning, Fed meeting on tuesday and options expiration on Friday will make this a roller coaster week for sure.
Tonight I am going to sleep very sound knowing this week WILL be a great week for volatility and some wonderful trades.
I will try and post some trades as fast as I can but I am sure it will be a fast spaced news filled week.

CONFIDENCE

Obviously we are experiencing a crisis of confidence on Wall Street in the past few weeks. The FED has been working overtime to make sure Wall Street the gears of America keep on going. Monday we will see how much was done over the weekend to amend the collapse of Bear Stern. Personally I dont think anyone in their right mind who manages money wants to be the first one to try and bet against the current crisis.
Last week there was substantial put buying in Bear Sterns, Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers. The puts on Bear Sterns were spot on and I think the put buyers in the other might also be spot on. No way as I said before that the mortgage meltdown just end in write downs, they should end in one of the banks going under due to cash crisis due to massive liquidation or a flat out Bankruptcy.
Today I will be looking at some charts to plan out the trading for this upcoming week, remember this week is option expiration, which usually brings in the manipulators of the high volume traded equities. This week tuesday is also the FED meeting which could pose well for high volatility with everyone guessing what the FED will ultimately say about the current market situation.
I hope we bounce hard some time in here because it would set up a sweet short opportunity as I see too many BEAR flags forming on the longer term charts.
What OIH here, it looks like it wants to break down out of the toppy pattern and I might go out on a limb here to also say the Euro looks extremely toppy and is dead at my target noted last month of 1.57. A break down from here can send us right back to the 1.38 area, which would be good for a OIL and Gold price pullback, we will see soon enough.

BYE BYE FINANCIALS

I now fully believe the market has enough of a catalyst to test the lows and maybe make new ones. There will be more hedge fund blowups on the horizon in my opinion. When a major investment bank (BSC) says basically that they are out of business it doesn't bode well for market confidence. Rumors are around today that UBS will announce more bad news and rumors that (CYN) City National may halt dividend and is facing a near term liquidity crisis. Stay tuned. Will the Fed come to the rescue and just buy all the bad debt?
How about the President of BSC saying things were ok with CNBC the other day? Can we trust anything in here? Do you want to be long finacials in here? He said liquidity was just fine. How come I heard European banks were not taking Bear Stearns business on Tuesday and Alan Schwartz the President didn't know.?Give me a break.

BEARS STERNS IN MEGA TROUBLE

Told you guys we are in trouble. Bears Sterns news just out of the FED RESERVE lending them monies for 28 days because they are in a liquidity crisis. What does that mean! Means they are in bankruptcy on their balance sheet. Lets see what happens in a few, will update..

CPI: Have the bulls returned

Some mildness was reported in the CPI but many are questioning the numbers as it showed decrease in gas prices which raised some suspicion in the number itself. As I have been saying I would love us to rally to the 1378-1400 area on the S&P so I can short and sit back as I do believe the path of least resistance is down. If we do get a lift today next week alot of shorts might cover into options expiration.
I think they are still trying to save the investment banks but who knows how much it will do.
Will be back after the open

Totally news driven

Today was a prime example of a news driven market. The market are looking for any news via the fed, mortgage derivative, hedgie etc to trade on. It almost seem too fake how we just trading off news in a hope of a rally or a crash. Here today I have to give it up to the bulls as the overnight lows didn't make a big impact on the final numbers. Tech, bios and agro stocks seem to have found some buying or short covering from the open to pan out a gain.
Well good to know Standard and Poors are on top of the market as usual. They claimed today that most of the bank write offs are coming to an end and we should be out of the woods soon. Well I have so much faint that I had my $5 in Enron when Standard and Poors said they were AAA rated, PLEASE lets be real here. Folks at Standard & Poors are a bunch of idiots and we will see soon enough if we are near the end.
Do you really think the Carlyle group is the only hedge fund out there that is using 32:1 leverage and got burnt. I think not but we will see soon enough.
Right here I am taking it easy as the FED action thru a money wrench in the setups i was looking at.
Remember next week is option expiration week and we should get some nice movements monday and tuesday. I am definitely not trading next friday as I haven't been having too much luck on options expiration days.

When will they get it!!!!!!!!

Carlyle Capital margin call, Bear Sterns lost of confidence, bad retail numbers and news of 20% job cuts on Wall Street, YEN is now at its highest level in 13 yrs are some of the news that are pounding us this morning. The news is nowhere good and that's why I am a perma bear long term. Yes we will get the bear market rallies but come on we heading lower much lower.
In the next few months most stocks will have made 52 weeks lows and many will make multi year lows. The FED is powerless against this spiral and SHOULD not try and help the markets as bear markets and recessions are a natural process of cleansing, just like we have natural disasters such as hurricane which are nature cleansing phenomenons.
Well for today we will see how far the gap us down. I would love ot see a huge gap down in certain stocks so I can play the bounce for the day but today if we dont bounce hard enough the bears might take it to the bulls and drive us way down.
I will be watching the financials closely today for reaction. Expect a big spike in SKF, wish I had step back into that play, oh well! that's how it goes.

Good luck

Rumors on BSC

Got some rumor news just now of Bear Sterns being on companies don't answer list. I dont know if it is true but this might have explained the CEO coming and CNBC today and the subsequent sell off throught the day. Financials are dead here and I dont expect them to be at a bottom till be here of some really bad news of one of the big financials being in a cash crunch or one of them being taken over.
Lets face it if the investment banks are in dire shape imagine the hedge funds who took the same leverage trades and didn't hedge. We might be in a world of trouble here. Today's action plus this rumor tonight makes the investment banks and FNM playable short on any gap ups.
They are officially on play as day trade as shorts only when they gap up.

Plan for Wednesday

Without going into too much details I only have one question? Where are the bulls. Although i expected a dull day I expected us to at least end marginally positive to show some face for the bulls. Yet again I think smart money is setting up to sell their holdings on an move higher. Bear Sterns, Fannie Mae, Google all were up initially off the open then bam they continued to sell.

For tomorrow I am giving a heads up. I am shorting AMZN and GOOGLE. AMZN I will do as a long term play with about $5 profit target. For Google I will be looking to short it below a 10 AM low as a day trade. I bought some USO puts right before the close which expired next week and if we get some bearish numbers tomorrow off the inventory numbers I will take some profits on it or ride them out till next week. I bought 4 contracts and willing to risk all on the play.

One other short to look at tomorrow is SLB, been trading terribly but I would wait for a 10 AM low here to make a trigger.

Talk to you tomorrow.

FED Move

What an ingenious way for the Fed to get out of the rate cutting business and still save the day. They told the brokers today we will take your crap and we will give you some treasuries. It gave the discount window a whole new purpose and maybe changed the way it is actually defined going forward.
How long do we bounce will be the BIG question. Alot of smart money will be active tomorrow and I expect a dull day to digest the huge gains we had today. Tomorrow alot of bear will come out saying this is a band aid solution and point out where the real problem lies. Others can easily debate the opposite side of the issue saying the FED is on Wall Street side.
Whatever it is I will be doing some set ups tonight although it will be tough with the strong day today. I think we have a shot for the NASDAQ to hit 2296 before we reach first critical resistance.

I am making a list of stock which I think will make monster moves in the next 12 months. I am only going to give them out initially to loyal readers and they must sign up for it by email.

I might make a trade on USO short tomorrow or later this week as a potential setup. Just a heads up there.

Have a great Wednesday trading

NICE to be accurate

Read the blog posting entry for yesterday evenings of a possible catalyst. Wow I just FELT it in all seriousness that something was in the works and then bang this morning liquidity injection by the FED and futures up huge.
It is goign to take alot more than this to save us but as said yesterday I definitely see oversold conditions but where we bounce to is the question. I WOULD LOVE to see us bounce hard as to set up some monster shorts and get back on stuff like SKF !!!

STAY TUNED- WE ARE TOTALLY ROCKING ON THE MARKETS

Mondays recap.

Well in the first week of January I made mention of the collapse of Google. The Internet giant was trading around the $575 area at that time. Wow! were we dead on! The first target on the downside was 525 then 450 then a test of the 425 area which is where we started today’s trading but are now below that level. Google will see closer to $330 are before the summer is up. Prices in the market seem to be tracking to summer 2004 prices and I suspect this is where a very short term bottom will be found.
What can I say about FNM, it is in a death spiral to the low teens which was called 3 weeks ago when it was $30, now trading at $19. Citibank, Bear Sterns, Lehman and Goldman are also in a spiral down but I believe they will soon get a catalyst to stop the bleeding. Citibank was an awesome call for sub $20 and Goldman which is holding up fairly well compared to the other brokers will soon break down to their levels. Again I am expecting a bounce in the Investment banks here as I think there might be some catalyst in the works to prop them up, so please be diligent on that sector trade.
This week I expect us to get some nice moves in the market lets not jump in without stops as the market to be seem to be oversold and we might be due for a short term bounce. Where does the bounce takes us is the more important question.


OPEN PLAYS

SHORT SOV $12.30, now $9.91
OIH 180 PUTS @8.75, now $12.85.

Two more WINNERS!!!!!!!!!!!

FNM

FNM is now a teenager!!!!!!
Said is here a few weeks ago right here when it was $30. FNM will be a $10 stock soon enough.


BYE BYE FNM

Investment Banks

Well as most of you know I have been banging the investment banks since last year. I have noted many times that these institutions are the main catalyst of the financial meltdown we are currently seeing.
Bear Sterns is one of those who invested heavily in mortgage derivative and now it is coming to bite them like a shark. Today Bear is down 13% and I will say it again these investment Banks have a lot further to go on the downside. Don't listen to the talking head talking about good buys and bottoms, yep if I bought bear stern on friday I would be down 13% in 1/2 day crazy. Wait for the dust to settle before you think about buying any of these stocks. The thing is in my opinion this is just the start of the downside for them. Lehman, Bear Stern etc have alot of disappointing news to tell shareholders and employees in the next few quarters.

Sorry to be the bearer of the grim news but it is just reality!!!!!!!

MONDAY

Sorry folks I have had computer issues since mid last week. This weekend I idn't run my usual scans as my computer was down. I am up now and have to see if everything is A ok today before I do anything.
In the mean time GOOGLE in death mode here!!! Told you Google will get kill soon enough.
FNM- wow Should have held this one longer, but I did call it to he teens. We are about $21 now from the call @ $29. Oh well sometimes you dont gain as much profit by being a trader, dang it.

This week will be a nice week hopefully I will be 100% up tomorrow

TRADE CALL:SKF

Stopped out last 1/4 share lot +$20

Recession

Don't shoot the messenger as I said - economy on the downside america needs to stop the optimism and just face reality. Market is crushed pre market it new 52 week lows.
In the mean time SKF is up another $4. Move stops to $130 on the last 1/4 share lot.
UP +$30 (almost 30% with no leverage) in a week is just awesome period.

ONLY WINNERS HERE PERIOD

MARKET CRUSHED

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
GOOG new 52 week LOWS.
S&P new 52 week LOWS.
Nasdaq new 52 week LOW.

SKF now 134. called last week @109.9

Banks and Brokers are dead here.

Hmmm I hope you all reading because it was said here that this would happen. No shot in the world we wont see new lows. Next week should be super nice. Keep the power dry because when the dust is settles alot of people will be hurting.

WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

TRADE CALL :SKF update

Take another 1/2 off here SKF +$20

geez louise - awesome.

should only be 1/4 share left with $120 stop

TRADE CALL :SKF update

SKF is approaching first target of $130 here pre market. We took 1/2 off and should just be holding 1/2 shares here. Moving stop to $120 to lock in +$10 on the 1/2 shares left.

+$20 in 4 days or 18% not too shabby.

I think it goes much higher....So I am just setting stops and letting it ride here

Thursday

I will be on and off today as I am having software problems I am trying to fix.
Well the first serious casualty of the mortgage market seem to be here today as TMA got a notice of default for not meeting its margin call. I said it once and I will say it twice, this mortgage ship will end up like the titantic.
Lets stay nimble today as I think next week will have greater opportunities after we pass tomorrow job numbers. What can I say about OIL! Everyone know I am a oil bull but seriously we should not be here. I think we will get a pullback here as the trade is crowded but after we should mount higher again, we will see soon enough. Cramer calling oil to 125 from here great call, that's about 20%. I called 100 oil when it was 35, hmm almost 300%. Don't listen to the talking heads, prime example the Investment banks. I think they will crash and burn and I am looking for much much lower prices on the investment banks.

Stay tuned.
Only here will you see the real light.

Have a great day

TRADE CALL:FWLT SHORT

OK FWLT short here @ $65 with a $3 stop. Risk reward seem to be good here.

Won't help

Can't say I didn't say it- Market was up +100 points on the Ambac news now we are negative.
Geez when will they learn we just can't stop the lows from being open target. Oil will soon crash and burn here soon, all the talking head on tv talking about 107. Oh ok buy at 104 and sell at 107 for 3 point profit or short and get $15 down side. I think I will play the short side when it sets up.
This is a numbers game folks that's all it is.

POP then FLOP

Seem like the pop of the Ambac news was quickly sold into. Classic buy the rumor and sell the news.

Again this wont help the ailing derivative mortgage market.

MARKET POP

Market popping on news of deal to restructure Ambac to keep it AAA rating. This is just crazy. Maybe I should just crash my car or paint it with a brush and ask my bank to give me my purchase price for it. This is exactly why nothing can be fixed in this economy. The band aid mentally has to stop!!!!!!!

This wont help.
I predict funds will start dumping muni bonds soon

TRADE CALL !!

I am about to make another trade call today after market open which should be good for about $8-10. Yes we swing them for big profits here!!!! The stop loss will be $3 on the play so that's a good risk reward in my opinion. I am waiting on the first 1/2 hr to trade to see how we react at the open ..

STAY TUNED FOR ANOTHER WINNER!!!

Wednesday March 5

Well folks here we go. The real truth is that financial institutions are run by a bunch of morons who base every decision on how much money or bonuses they can make. These actions are now coming home to show the incompetent of money managers, many of who have no idea on how to make money but just have the access to it. They throw darts are 1000 investments hoping 2 will make it big to compensate for the 998 losers.
Here we intend to do the reverse have 998 winners and 2 losers and that's the aim of my blog to help people. The last two weeks have been excellent and many professional money managers would wish they could make such calls. One reader of the blog who will remain nameless wrote me today saying he is up 35% on some GS puts he bought on my commentary last week. My hats off to him because it was just mentioned in commentary and not a trade call. Trade calls are trades I personally make in my accounts. Great play indeed.
Well what is next ? Google hit a 52 week low today and I expect the internet giant to fall more. Again i am reiterating my call of $370 then $325 on the downside for that stock. Citibank seem like there are in trouble and again I think they will have to get another round of capital injection to keep them afloat as the job cuts alone wont help. Time for the street to face reality and face the fact that they are the ones who creative bubbles in the market place and causes the masses to lose money.
I think some commodities will be dead money soon and all those running to the commodity plays here are just foolish. Jim Cramer calling GOLD to 1600, what a joke!! I bet it see 850 before it see 1100. Jim called GOOGLE top when he said google to $1000. No way! are they all on crack, it will never happen.
Oil should get a substantial pullback here, I will have to run some numbers to see what levels to watch but at a quick glance Oil could retrace back to $90 easily before we head higher again. Oil in the mid 80's is a perfect buy spot in my opinion but as off today I am long some DUG which is the ultrashort share of OIL and Gas because I think it pulls in. Tomorrow is inventory numbers and I will be looking for reaction off the number.
Folks manage your trades and be nimble you will see your account grow nicely, use stops whether electronically or mentally on every trade.
Tomorrow should be highly playable day for the active intra day traders based on todays action.

I will be sending two plays before thursday which I think will make monster moves.

Good luck on Wednesday

TRADE UPDATE:OIH PUTS

I just looked at my options account and noticed I have some OIH 180 puts from February 21 @8.75. I am risking all of the amount on this play there is no stop for me.

Monday was a digestion day as the markets locked themselves into a choppy range for much of the session. The afternoon hours did mark a sharp move down but the bulls reciprocated with a bounce back reaction into the close to form dojis on the daily market charts. The day was not all that unexpected following the decent range on Friday, although I had no model to predict it.

Fact is it wouldn’t surprise me if we consolidate along these lines for a little while before we make the next move, most likely lower. I might look for a little bit more range on Tuesday, and again it’s difficult to predict a direction for the day. If we do rally and close strong, though, I will probably look to fade it on
Wednesday.

I am still bearish for the short and intermediate term here and if we do put in a sharp bearish impulse out of the market open, I probably would look for flags and pennant setups for more downside plays.

In the meantime i am still long SKF and short SOV

AMZN short was awesome to say the least and I think it goes lower.

Have a great Day

OPPS:!!!!

I guess I covered AMZN too early! it is totally getting taken to the cleaners.
Official only in 1/2 share of SKF which is rocking, +$14 in two days is just awesome.

SOV, I am still short, just about .35 in the money but better than a loser.

TRADE CALL:SKF

Selling 1/2 of SKF here +$11

TRADE CAL :AMZN

Covering AMZN here +4.60

Monday early

Picks from thursday are moving up nicely today in the early going

SKF now 124 bought @ 109.9
AMZN short 68.60 now 63.28

Great moves in 2 days

March is upon us!!!

Well February is over and March is here but the Market seems still to be in limbo with the possibilities of more fatal mortgage derivative news and that of stimulus from the now inadequate Fed . I have been thinking for the last three days of how to explain this weekend on the BLOG the mess we are in. After three days of hard thoughts I think I MIGHT be able to sum it up in a few paragraphs so if it seems like rambling I apologize.
I must say I wish I was not a trader and had Millions or Billions to set in motion which I BELIEVE will happen. There is just not a chance in the UNIVERSE the markets wont see new lows this year. Listening to Bernanke last week for two days set in motion quietly that many banks are currently under capitalized in their present structure, meaning they will have to raise substantial capital to stay afloat. The banks and Brokers are trading like they are on a death bed. Citibank is a noticeable stock here as they have lowered their dividends in the last 2 months and raised capital overseas and seem as if they might have to lower dividends and raise capital once more. Now I have no idea which banks Bernanke think are under capitalized but if Citibank was to go insolvent or had to be bailed out we are in a world of trouble.
Banks are just so loaned out with leverage that if the derivative markets dont turn around in a timely manner they will be shot. I believe the banks will see much lower prices and also the wall street heavy weights like Lehman and Goldman will see yearly lows. GS is currently trading at $169 but $150 is long term support, when GS breaks this $150 level I would not be surprised if we head back to summer 05 levels of $100. Don't get all so scared on this prediction as presently housing prices in the once boiling real estate areas are now back to 04 levels.
One of the greatest performing stock in this time is surely the internet giant GOOGLE, which should also trade back to its summer 05 level of around $250. That's almost a 50% cut from current prices but that's where I think alot of these stocks are heading. I have been hearing from people living in once hot areas of the country in real estate about massive sales signs and blocks of pre foreclosure housing seeking buying. What I DONT understand is in all of this chaos the FED seem to think we will avoid a recession by pumping the most money ever in the economy. What is happening here is a self fulling prophecy and old school economics of yesteryear. A short history note here: the 1929 depression was caused my money supply constrains. The FED suppling massive currency in the system is to fight the effects of this but where this is different in todays time is that the supply is not being filtered out because tighter credit is being applied to transactions. Where does that leave us? Leaves us in a situation that the FED is ineffective, devaluing the currency and ultimately having a little confidence by the financial institutions.

People it is time for us to get real about the situation of how we live in America. Wishful thinking is not going to protect you or make money in any market. This crisis is indeed a real crisis and it will not be fixed by giving out checks from Washington. We are going lower much lower, people who are calling bottoms here are just ridiculous and I see no bottom within the next 3 years. With all that in mind if you are long stocks in your IRA you will be in a world of hurt in the next few quarters. Being short or long ultrashort shares is the way to go. I knew I would start rambling but I will continue on this next week when I will share some information on trouble in the MUNI- BONDS world.

Talk to you tomorrow morning have a great trading week.

http://marketjedi.blogspot.com/