Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Boring Day

Boring day indeed but I am glad because as I am sick. Tomorrow if we do gap up I will be shorting, especially Google and ADS. Google got downgraded today and any weak day should send this one firmly in the red and ADS i have on my radar a couple of days now and it just looks terrible. This one I have no doubt will be alot lower in a year from now.
Although I wasn't trading today I did send out an alert on my GE calls which I will ride into GE's earnings and also mentioned MA short if it broke it 10am lows, which it didn't so that trade it now void.
Volume is very anemic for the past two days and that's not a good sign for the upside. I still believe we will grind higher but we are in no rush here at all, just better to stay small or wait it out. I think the big active traders are taking this week slow or off as it is spring break time. The pit in chicago trading futures was only 50-60% today, so we should be careful not to over trade here as we can be whipped around more easily.
I rather stick to the trend here in the meantime. Also look if we get some weakness on the brokers tomorrow. I am watching GS for a little pullback below 176.5 to scalp a few point.

Talk to you tomorrow heading to bed early to get better

TRADE CALL :GE $35 April calls

Buying them here for $2.50, play is for earnings

TRADE CALL :MA

For the aggressive traders - Shorting MA below 10 am lows. It is now 9: am before market open don't short here. Short MA only if it makes a 10 am lows. Good shot it trades down today. We will see.

TRADE VOID- MON

Those who emailed about the stocks I think might be monster plays. Please VOID MON here this morning. Stock is going to gap up huge on news of the company boosting fiscal year earnings. That just pisses me off but at least I know I was right. Maybe someone over MON reading the BLOG hehehe and emailed me about the monster plays, oh well.

Don't buy MON on such a huge gap up. Trade is VOID

Merrill Lynch rumor

Rumors out this morning that Merril Lynch will write off an additional $8Billion in derivative. Again it is a rumor so be careful here. The broker might sell off today if this rumor gets traction or is TRUE.

Storm brewing

Well, we certainly nailed it! Market did indeed rally, though much more than I was hoping for. Now? We probably pull in a little. I think we get a little range to break out of to the upside.Unless, of course, there's some news that cracks us again. That's certainly possible. Baring bad news I do think we can scale higher without that much of a pullback. Ultimately we go LOWER, but for now we still look like some back and filling and then potentially a range breakout to the 13,000s. From there, if we even get there, I would think we get a nice selloff and break to the downside.

Here is the problem, its kinda a perfect storm eventually. You have the Fed bailing everyone and everything out. Wonderful, hurray for the Fed. Unfortunately its going to catch up, it has to. The Fed can't just print money with no ramifications. People are giddy that the Fed is doing all this, but its politically motivated and it can't do anything but put a bandaid on the issues. At least thats my take, but I'm just a trader and not an economist.