S&P 500 Analysis

We barely did much today as the ES had a narrow range of around 12 points and volume was below yesterday's. Obviously we are forming a triangle here in a consolidation pattern and it probably resolve itself higher when it breaks.
Watch that 877. on the upside it needs to break on the third push to send us to our first 988 target

Crude

Well Crude got hit with heavy selling today and yes some of it was the EIA numbers but most of it was technical. Today volume was heavy, actually today's volume was the most in 11 weeks.
It seems we have some more room on the downside and if I am correct on the structure of this we should be looking at the 62.40 area as some stronger support. Below that 61.35, which coincides with the 261.8 Fibonacci extension off the 68.9 Highs.

Bill Gross- Follow the money

Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., reduced holdings of mortgage debt last month and added to cash and equivalent securities.

Gross cut the $161 billion Total Return Fund’s investment in mortgage bonds to 54 percent of assets, the lowest in almost two years, from 61 percent in May, according to a report on Pimco’s Web site. Gross trimmed holdings of government-related bonds to 24 percent of assets, the least since February, from 25 percent.

In an investment outlook published earlier this month, Gross said investors should look for “secure income” offered by bonds and dividend-paying stocks. “The outlook for risk assets -- stocks, high-yield bonds, and commercial and residential real estate will involve just that -- risk,” he said in the July 1 report.

The Total Return Fund returned 10.9 percent in the past year, beating 97 percent of its peers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

CRUDE-BINGO!!! 62.75

Can I say BINGO AGAIN- called that 62.75, we hit 62.70, all out +$5 nice swing there and technically excellent trade was never in a danger of being stopped.

BINGO-

MARKETJEDI

Troubling Trend

There is troubling trend in the global markets towards US investments. Last week the Associated Press reports that "Foreign demand for the Long Term U.S. finanaical assets dropped by the largest amount in four months in May, as Japan and Russia trimmed their holdings of Treasury securities. Foreigners actually sold $19.8 Billion more long-term U.S. securities than they purchased in May, compare the net purchases of $11.5 Billion in April.
This is definitely a serious trend with such a drop in foreign investible funds for meeting the U.S. borrowing needs. The FED has definitely seen the danger and that was the reason they went into the market to buy these securities in an attempt to bring back some confidence in the international market towards U.S. securities.
My thesis of this selling is China's selling of U.S. assets to fund their stimulus and growth agenda to be at the forefront when the global economy start to return to growth.
It is funny how the pundits in the media are saying buy stocks BUT yet they saying growth will take awhile to return. I think they know what is happening they see the cash rich nation slowing and in some cases like China dumping treasuries on the market which have them very nervous.

S&P 964

That is the line in the sand for the market bulls.

FYI

WOW-Crude

Wow crude went down to 63.04, man oh man just crushed. I am surprised it stopped at that number because that number didn't come up in my work. I am looking for 62.75 area.

MARKETJEDI

BROKE 65 and now $64 on Crude

Not only did we break $65 we just now broke $64. I have a minor support number @ 63.80, so watch for that area.

See you tomorrow

MARKETJEDI

Crude-Lesson

One important note I have to point out here on Crude and technical analysis. Alot of people think news moves the market and I dont think so. I think technical analysis rules and could be seen in that Crude play. that set up was based on technicals and not on the EIA numbers just reported.
Last week I noted 67.60 was the measured move and if we reach there it is an excellent risk reward trade on the short side. We actually traded a bit higher which usually troubles me because I am thorough in my analysis but I said still short it and put you stop above that last swing high.
Well if you played exactly to script you would never be in danger of being stopped out and would be up +$3.50 as I am writing this. Now you are home free as you should take 1/2 off here and the stop on the second 1/2 should be set at entry.

I have a target of 62.75 on this trade, we will see soon enough.


MARKETJEDI

Crude Update

Down $2.79 now- $65 cracked

up $3 on that trade, I would take 1/2 off here and ride the rest if you have multiple contracts.

Sweettt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

MARKETJEDI

Crude trade

If we break 65 here we will be good - crude is currently down $2.19 @65.10

Crude

Crude getting hit again early- There is EIA numbers this morning on Oil but as of now we are down $1.92. If and I say if the structure works that Oil short will be golden.

MARKETJEDI

Current chart

It appears that we are still in process of tracing out a triangle, although, slightly different than what I mapped out yesterday. Wave C looks to have morphed into a more complex structure(WXY).


If my assessment of structure is correct, we should see a thrust upward on E's completion. It has a 21.50 handle measurement from high to low. This would target out around 995 (VERY IMPORTANT NUMBER) using the apex. We will have to see where E ends to get an exact target.

Have a feeling-

I wont be watching the markets tomorrow (wednesday) as I am tending to some stuff. One thing I noticeD today I think we hit a wall or it is coming, now I am not saying we wont go higher remember my 1045/56 area is still in ply BUT today's action just feels tired really tired. I think the weak bears were shaken out when we broke 925 and then 956 but something here doesn't feel right.
I can't put my finger on it but let's say I would be extremely cautious. Maybe I am just tired and need some rest :)

MARKETJEDI