Got a few things to talk about but the first thing I would like to talk about is the 30yr bond. Although i think bounce are heading towards PAR i believe we will get a bounce here to the 122.1 area, there is also a possibility for a extended move to 127'3 if earnings are significantly worse than expected and there is a flight to quality of the bonds..
Next the price action in the S&P have now changed to negative and I have a projection down to the 821/819 area based on my analysis. Now the only caveat is when as I do have a negative time frame analysis till the end of the month of July, does that mean we head to 821 before then or do we attack that area after is too early to tell but one thing is certain we have developed a cycle pattern to lower price from here into the end of the month.
Next there is an obvious head and shoulder pattern in the charts which is setting up lower prices. Now if the pattern morphs it would definitely hit out below targets ad leave the bulls in a stalemate but not complete doom. As I have been saying I think there is one last hooray before the bear REALLY returns.
Remember we are in the summer mode here so I would not be going out heavy on plays, just stick to the bigger picture analysis and play off the larger patterns.
MARKETJEDI
Saturday, July 11, 2009
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