CRUDE UPDATE

Price has reached the top of the channel, which would suggest that (v) is nearing completion. There is always the chance for "throw-over", as Elliott called it, where price breaks above the upper boundary.

Momentum is certainly slowing down, as evidenced by RSI. It appears that we should have our customary negative divergence on completion of this wave (v).

Once [i] completes, we should witness a more meaningful retracement.

S&P UPDATE

We closed below the important 1081 level which acted as support in the market short term. We not not far from it in the early overnight session but we close horrible and ticked off some bearish divergence and signals.
Watch the same numbers we hit on the way up 1067 and that important 1054. That 1054 is like a mirror and I am telling you this here and now when we break that 1054 on a two push down that will signal the last of this rally. Yes yes I said it but technicals never lie.
I have some work to do but if I am up to it I will post some charts.

US Dollar

More new lows for the US Dollar. Notice though that Gold is not leaping forward as you would think! Are we resting on that commodity or are the players now jumping into OIL.
This push is Oil is very impulsive and you all know what that means if you have been reading my blog for awhile.

Note on the Dollar

Note on the weakness of the dollar. Although we hear a lot from the biggest holders of the US debt and the members of OPEC crying about the weaker Dollar, I don't think they really want to rush into a full scale move away. Why do I say that, think about it right now they would lose a lot of money if there is a rapid shift away from the greenback as they are the holders of this debt, remember also who will buy it from them in the end!!!
So what do I think? well if and I say IF the dollar is put on the chopping block more and continue is decline ( lost 20% of value so far this year) then the market will have to compensate for this devaluation and price equities higher. Yes for those who don't understand, the markets go up 20% but the currency goes down 20% in value you are flat in real monetary terms, you have not gained. Some of you are from developing countries fully understand this equation than most. So yep if the US dollar continue to get kill it is totally possible we go higher. For me I don't think all the pieces will come together to make the market fully compensate for the devaluation of the US dollar and then again I think the debt holders might through some radical means try to prop up the US dollar as they are losing money hand over fist.
A lot of elements to think about and that's why it is very hard to analyze all at once but the secret will be to find the sequence of events and play the markets as such.

Such a beautiful day out here in NC, going outside to have a cup of coffee.


MARKETJEDI

Wave count

Now folks if my count is correct here on the equity indexes, we are definitely in WAVE 4. Now why I have been on the fence is because WAVE 4 is the most difficult to trade but the great thing about WAVE 4 is that you are very sure you are in it when we chop with little direction.
Now what do you do when we are in a WAVE 4? Well at least you know there will be a WAVE 5 and that should be the conclusion of the last trend, so note of caution to the bulls here. So yep it matches up with my time zone of another 3-4 weeks maybe of upside (WAVE5) THEN WE SHOULD SEE THE END OF THIS RALLY.
Since March I said 1050 area and possibly 1096 and we have seen those numbers, the only other number I have is a 1114 but I would have to check back but it is safe to say 1096 on the analysis of a March significant low should make a technical topping formation area.
We will see how this pans out and see how we react if and when we get to 1114. Again warning the bear market is by no means over as I still think we are in WAVE 2 of the bear market. We will soon see.

MARKETJEDI