Friday, October 31, 2008
S&P 1000
1000 level is just 25 points away. I think 1056 area is a great area to short. I am telling you this today that next week they going to ramp us and alot of people are going to go long and get caught in the long run as they will all claim that the bottom is in. I would advise next week to start setting up those ultrashort and short with some puts especially Wednesday.
LOW VOLUME
With the election on Tuesday and end of month here it seems the volume is non existent.
Look for the first 3-4 days of November to be up days as they usually are, but the question after is do they sell the election results.
We Will see in a few days.
Have a great weekend
Look for the first 3-4 days of November to be up days as they usually are, but the question after is do they sell the election results.
We Will see in a few days.
Have a great weekend
Changing sentiment
Yes folks we seem to be going higher here-Weeks ago I have been talking about a potential rally because of the oversold conditions and we seem to be getting it here. S&P will more than likely test my 1023 number and maybe more but I doubt if it reaches 1100. This is the dream of being trader VOLATILITY. This is goign to set up a very nice trade indeed because the market is definitely going to see lower prices and a move higher is just a set up for the shorts.I would love to see DOW over 10000 level maybe 10300/10500 as this would mark the top in this push up for sure and at those level look to short the APPLE, GOOG and take SKF long for sure.
Tomorrow is the last day of the month and managers will try to mark up stuff so I do expect an up day, so if we gap down I would be buying as they are all trying to change sentiment here.
MARKETJEDI
Tomorrow is the last day of the month and managers will try to mark up stuff so I do expect an up day, so if we gap down I would be buying as they are all trying to change sentiment here.
MARKETJEDI
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Out today
I am out today- Sinuses are giving me some trouble today and just want to rest.
The market looks like it is giving back the big gap up this morning.
I will be back tomorrow
watch AFL.
The market looks like it is giving back the big gap up this morning.
I will be back tomorrow
watch AFL.
Upside
I am still looking for more upside here. Targets for the S&P is that magic 1000 but could stretch to the 1023-1052 area. On the DOW looking for heavy resistance into the 9875 number if can boost higher. It is end of month so lets see what the fund managers want to do.
Some stuff are setting up here so stay tuned.
Some stuff are setting up here so stay tuned.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Come on Market
Come on market give me S&P 1000, YOU KNOW YOU HAVE IT!!!
Adding onto yesterday gains and this will be good for the bulls as it would mark the first time is awhile we haven't sold off a huge up day. Momentum is on the bulls side here.
The question is do we hit 1023 on the S&P and 10000 on the DOW.
Adding onto yesterday gains and this will be good for the bulls as it would mark the first time is awhile we haven't sold off a huge up day. Momentum is on the bulls side here.
The question is do we hit 1023 on the S&P and 10000 on the DOW.
FED
FED announce in 50 minutes can't wait to see what they do. The point need to be made that the FED is so irrelevant to the market it is almost a joke. We will see in 45 mins
Wednesday
Remember today is FED announcement, usually we die volume wise into that 12:30 time frame till the announcement. I do expect us to get some early upside then who knows :), all depends on what the FED says.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Okie Dokie
Ok we got a nice rally today. A few things to make note of: firstly tomorrow is FED rate announcement and we usually have an upward bias into FED announcements. Secondly, volume was on the light side and as most of you know price needs to be backed by volume. Thirdly, I would love a gap up tomorrow and maybe a push into S&P 1000 as this should provide some resistance. I am still thinking here that we will see 755 on the S&P before the year is up. Fourthly, tomorrow if we are up into that 11:00 time I would not be surprised if we sell off as most traders will sell the news on the FED announcement.
Fifth, we have a few gaps on the charts in the indices above and if they want to push us higher I expect those gap to get filled before the turn us down.
Is this a one day wonder like two week ago? Who knows but this week should be tricky with the election next week and most looking to see how the polls look over the weekend. I don't see us rallying very far and upside will be limited I think to the upside of DOW 10,300 and around S&P 1050 if they really push us. I would love to see 1050 on the S&P as this would provide a nice low risk short after the elections.
Fifth, we have a few gaps on the charts in the indices above and if they want to push us higher I expect those gap to get filled before the turn us down.
Is this a one day wonder like two week ago? Who knows but this week should be tricky with the election next week and most looking to see how the polls look over the weekend. I don't see us rallying very far and upside will be limited I think to the upside of DOW 10,300 and around S&P 1050 if they really push us. I would love to see 1050 on the S&P as this would provide a nice low risk short after the elections.
Nice move
Nice move here into the close by the market BUT volume is extremely light. Can we say turnaround tuesday again. Tomorrow is the FED annoucement and we should get some movement on that.
TRADE CALL : GOOG PUTS (GGD XT)
Ok RISKY play here but I am playing this 1/2 size and maybe add if better prices hit.
Thinking here is that Google looks weak and should test it lower band once again so I am playing the DEC 08 puts on it.
GGD XT @19.30. It is expensive so play lightly
Thinking here is that Google looks weak and should test it lower band once again so I am playing the DEC 08 puts on it.
GGD XT @19.30. It is expensive so play lightly
Low Volume
We are trading on very very low volume here folks. I am not pushing it because of that fact and volume might not return fully till next week after the election. Also some futures firm including mine raised margin requirement which might contribute to the low volume. Lets see how that plays out in the coming days.
Glad I was finished trading in the first hour today. Just not worth it out there right now.
STAY NIMBLE
Glad I was finished trading in the first hour today. Just not worth it out there right now.
STAY NIMBLE
GS
Poor Goldman Sachs going back to that $75 area. Rumors outs that they were short VW stock which went up huge in the past week.
Tuesday
Well we gapped up over 350 points but we are much lower now. Consumer Confidence number came out and it was the lowest ever recorded. We looking wishy washy here I am basically sitting on my hands right here
Monday, October 27, 2008
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Thoughts for this week
Well I am going to be watching tonight how Asia and Europe opens but I think we need to get a flush out here period. I don't like to be biased over a weekend but I have a feeling they will try and flush us since it was in the cards on friday but the rescue team came in to save the day. One thing that might trigger the selling is hedge fund redemptions which might be heavy as I have been reading.
Dow I personally think if we get a flush 'SHOULD' see 7380, that's the number I will be watching to poke some longs or if I am short to cover moving down to that number. The fact is the earnings numbers aren't helping and the news of Obama's lead widening don't help the wall street big guys who would more likely sell on a Obama victory.
Let's see how Europe opens and I might be up late to watch the opening to see where our futures are as I might short it overnight if we are up significantly.
Remember this week we have the FED meeting and their is talk of lowered rates but what's the sense it wont help.
Dow I personally think if we get a flush 'SHOULD' see 7380, that's the number I will be watching to poke some longs or if I am short to cover moving down to that number. The fact is the earnings numbers aren't helping and the news of Obama's lead widening don't help the wall street big guys who would more likely sell on a Obama victory.
Let's see how Europe opens and I might be up late to watch the opening to see where our futures are as I might short it overnight if we are up significantly.
Remember this week we have the FED meeting and their is talk of lowered rates but what's the sense it wont help.
Friday, October 24, 2008
Staying light here
I am staying light here because although I believe the market is going much lower medium term I think we will get a huge rally soon. I dont want to be adding fresh shorts here as this kind of move is usually some type of climatic move and if you just putting on fresh shorts you will get killed if we get a massive rally. Stay nimble and stay cash, it is just one day.
Marketjedi
Marketjedi
Funny
How is SNDK doing? Said that one would be below $10 hehehe.
How is RIMM doing? my #1 short for the next 12 month a couple months ago is down more than 60%.
How is APPLE doing? My target of $75 coming very very soon.
How is GOOGLE doing? Already touch my $311 target and think in the next 12 months will be $200 if not less.
How is Citibank doing?? Going to my first $10 then $7.50. Ultimately Citibank will be a $3 stock.
BLOG IS JUST ON FIRE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
How is RIMM doing? my #1 short for the next 12 month a couple months ago is down more than 60%.
How is APPLE doing? My target of $75 coming very very soon.
How is GOOGLE doing? Already touch my $311 target and think in the next 12 months will be $200 if not less.
How is Citibank doing?? Going to my first $10 then $7.50. Ultimately Citibank will be a $3 stock.
BLOG IS JUST ON FIRE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thoughts
Would love us to get a flush out because this will set up a nice bounce in a few days. This needed to be done weeks ago and as usual THEY try to stop the natural forces of the market.
This could be a historic day and week to come.
MARKETJEDI
This could be a historic day and week to come.
MARKETJEDI
FUTURES LOCK LIMIT DOWN
Yep folks it is 7:30 am and the futures are locked limit down. We could be in for a very nasty opening and as I have said many many times before dont listen to these idiots the market is going much lower. The lows of two weeks ago will go at the open if the first remain locked limit down but this could be the day we get a huge flush out to build some kind of base from , we will see soon enough.
MARKETJEDI
MARKETJEDI
Thursday, October 23, 2008
TRADE CALL UPDATE- QCOM PUTS (AAO WI)
Out here @$11.60, another double options play.
QCOM looks like it can go much lower but I am taking profits here.
ONLY WINNERS HERE PERIOD
QCOM looks like it can go much lower but I am taking profits here.
ONLY WINNERS HERE PERIOD
They just dont want us higher
They just dont want us higher. This morning we gapped down then turned around and went positive over 200 points.
It is obvious that the lows set two weeks ago will be tested maybe even early next week. Things just look weak although I still think we will get bounce that lasts more than one day. I dont want to set new shorts here on stocks/options I rather play it in the futures as I think a bounce when it comes might be vicious.
Let's see we end the day, it is currently 1:pm and lunch time is nothing to judge from.
GOOGLE and APPLE could save us this earnings season, maybe Microsoft does.
It is obvious that the lows set two weeks ago will be tested maybe even early next week. Things just look weak although I still think we will get bounce that lasts more than one day. I dont want to set new shorts here on stocks/options I rather play it in the futures as I think a bounce when it comes might be vicious.
Let's see we end the day, it is currently 1:pm and lunch time is nothing to judge from.
GOOGLE and APPLE could save us this earnings season, maybe Microsoft does.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Bye Bye
BYE BYE Market nice knowing you. WARNED you not to buy the 900 point up day last week as it is a fact that the biggest point gainer days are in BEAR markets. Don't be stubborn and listen to the idiots on TV and at your brokerage firm telling you to dollar cost average and hold for the long run.
It aint going to work!!! it is all wishful thinking. I am up 15% since yesterday while the market is down over 900 points on the DOW. DON'T listen to these scammers they are the same ones who told us to buy stocks while their upper level management was selling with both hands and walking away with huge bonuses.
Time to wise up.
MARKETJEDI
It aint going to work!!! it is all wishful thinking. I am up 15% since yesterday while the market is down over 900 points on the DOW. DON'T listen to these scammers they are the same ones who told us to buy stocks while their upper level management was selling with both hands and walking away with huge bonuses.
Time to wise up.
MARKETJEDI
TRADE CALL UPDATE: QCOM PUTS
OK they are bidding $9.10 here but I am holding for a double so I am looking for more
Dont Kill the MESSENGER.
Don't kill me because I am telling the truth and it is not good. The fact of the story is the economy is walking on one leg, it is NOT MY FAULT.
Wachovia who I have been saying for over a year along with WAMU, Citibank etc are in some serious trouble and honestly run by a bunch of morons. Wachovia just reported a record $23.9 Billion loss the most ever by a lender in the U.S. I said it a couple months ago if Citibank took over Wachovia that stock would be worth $1, nothing more those too banks are so sick and they don't know it because they don't have proper management in place to analyze and implement a vision to adapt to changes in the marketplace.
Right now the market is DEAD. We will be in a trading range till be break significantly lower as the market in my opinion is VASTLY overpriced. I have one suggestion to my readers. Don't buy stocks because the days of buy and hold are OVER. I am not saying we go straight to 5000 on the DOW but long term the market will be much much lower and that's a fact. Only thing you should be buying is ultrashort ETF's and trade positions when we do get bounces.
My Fib's timeline projection is predicting that this Bears market should last to a minimum next year November, so if you are long or own mutual funds based long, you will be in alot of pain for another year.
SNDK PUTS ARE NICE!!!!
QCOM PUTS ARE NICE!!!!!
ONLY WINNERS HERE PERIOD!!
MARKETJEDI.
Wachovia who I have been saying for over a year along with WAMU, Citibank etc are in some serious trouble and honestly run by a bunch of morons. Wachovia just reported a record $23.9 Billion loss the most ever by a lender in the U.S. I said it a couple months ago if Citibank took over Wachovia that stock would be worth $1, nothing more those too banks are so sick and they don't know it because they don't have proper management in place to analyze and implement a vision to adapt to changes in the marketplace.
Right now the market is DEAD. We will be in a trading range till be break significantly lower as the market in my opinion is VASTLY overpriced. I have one suggestion to my readers. Don't buy stocks because the days of buy and hold are OVER. I am not saying we go straight to 5000 on the DOW but long term the market will be much much lower and that's a fact. Only thing you should be buying is ultrashort ETF's and trade positions when we do get bounces.
My Fib's timeline projection is predicting that this Bears market should last to a minimum next year November, so if you are long or own mutual funds based long, you will be in alot of pain for another year.
SNDK PUTS ARE NICE!!!!
QCOM PUTS ARE NICE!!!!!
ONLY WINNERS HERE PERIOD!!
MARKETJEDI.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Just no legs.
Just no legs in the market it seems today. I am back full time tomorrow and will see if we have some set ups going on. I have literally just been playing futures for the first hour of the last 3 days and doing some personal stuff so sorry if the blog is light.
QCOM seem like it wants much lower, I am targeting those options as a double as my target right now and SNDK looks like it will be good too. Man oh man just no helping the credit markets, the FED just said this morning they will be buying commercial paper too facilitating over 540 BILLION to unfreeze this market too. I just dont understand why the banks are just not doing anything? I can tell you what it is the banking business is DEAD, BROKEN and obviously run by a bunch of morons and them not the FED will be the main cause of this prolong recession.
MARKETJEDI
QCOM seem like it wants much lower, I am targeting those options as a double as my target right now and SNDK looks like it will be good too. Man oh man just no helping the credit markets, the FED just said this morning they will be buying commercial paper too facilitating over 540 BILLION to unfreeze this market too. I just dont understand why the banks are just not doing anything? I can tell you what it is the banking business is DEAD, BROKEN and obviously run by a bunch of morons and them not the FED will be the main cause of this prolong recession.
MARKETJEDI
Thoughts for today
I will be in and out today as I have some personal stuff to do. The market seem to be gapping down but I would look for a buy opt using the first hour highs as entry. Yesterdays rally was on light volume so bulls need to step up efforts if we are to trend higher.
Monday, October 20, 2008
Nice day
Nice day for the markets. I have been out all day so I dont have any views on the day. I just noticed SNDK missed earnings and the stock is down, good for our put January play, which I hope it will be a double but we will wait and see.
Friday, October 17, 2008
Upside
Would love to get some upside here this earnings season to get on board some long term short. I think we will have resistance 10200 on the DOW which is 1000 points higher. I will be back next tuesday as I am taking monday off
Nice swings
As I been saying this is a sweet market to trade. Giving us 400+ point days in a day is especially great if you trade futures. Today is options expiration and as I said early this week I would expect some upside dude to the expiration.
Next week is the real test but whatever it is, as long as we have these swings there is much opportunities.
Next week is the real test but whatever it is, as long as we have these swings there is much opportunities.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
OH OK - Google reports tonight. If Google blows the heck off earnings we could motor higher as they will trigger off some short covering in the markets, now IF they miss look for GOOG to test that $275.
Targets
Ok folks I am off for the day but seem like we will test 835 on the S&P again. That was last week lows and this I believe will get alot of people scared. Remember I said dont get happy about that 900 point day up as the biggest up days are in bear markets. We have completely wiped out the gains of the huge day up and heading lower, maybe this time they give us a nice flush then we will establish a nice bounce.
GOOG
GOOGLE trading @ 311 here a level I spoke about about 2 weeks ago. If it dont bounce here it should see $275. It must hold that $311
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
TRADE CALL UPDATE: EBAY SHORT
EBAY just reported earnings and bang they missed. So that short call was sweet. I think EBAY can trade down to $12. easily so keep that short on and ride that baby down.
Also how is that QCOM Puts play doing????
free money folks FREE!!!!!!
ONLY WINNERS HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Also how is that QCOM Puts play doing????
free money folks FREE!!!!!!
ONLY WINNERS HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
No safety
Well hey this is reality here. Bailout will and isn't working, buying stakes in banks wont help, the fact is we are just in a contracting environment and worse we are experiencing deflation across all asset classes.
The DOW is in sell mode and I dont see any form of panic yet, which is scary. No panic means we can go much much lower before we even get a meaning full bounce in this bear market. With 3 minutes to go we are the lows of the day and we have completely wiped out the huge day up of over 900 points.
Don't buy, don't buy, play short and you will be happy we are in a bear market.
MARKETJEDI
The DOW is in sell mode and I dont see any form of panic yet, which is scary. No panic means we can go much much lower before we even get a meaning full bounce in this bear market. With 3 minutes to go we are the lows of the day and we have completely wiped out the huge day up of over 900 points.
Don't buy, don't buy, play short and you will be happy we are in a bear market.
MARKETJEDI
TRADING FUTURES
Guys you have to get on board with futures trading. We are constantly getting days were the DOW is moving 500-1000 points. We will get these wild swing till the VIX come down below 20 which could take awhile. Take opportunities when they arise as in this time. If you are a real traders this is the best market ever because of the volatility.
I will be posting some stuff on futures trading and possible giving a class if I have enough people interested.
MARKETJEDI
I will be posting some stuff on futures trading and possible giving a class if I have enough people interested.
MARKETJEDI
TRADE CALL: EBAY Short
EBAY short here @$15.80 is the call.
If you want to play the options play $15 January puts @$1.63 (QXB MC)
If you want to play the options play $15 January puts @$1.63 (QXB MC)
Recession.
The FED is officially saying we are in a Recession. Well for all those who thought it was not going to happen here it is. Actually we have been in a recession for over 9 months in my opinion.
On that Note I would be looking to short RTH here if you are a short side player. The retailers are going to have a hard time this year christmas.
On that Note I would be looking to short RTH here if you are a short side player. The retailers are going to have a hard time this year christmas.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Levels to watch
If we gap down tomorrow morning looks for some support @ 960 on the S&P. Should be a decent spot to bounce from the impulse of yesterday.
Also on stock to look at here is MS. Strong resistance here @$25, should be a short closer there.
Also on stock to look at here is MS. Strong resistance here @$25, should be a short closer there.
Got to love it
Got to love this market, the swings are huge intraday but I must warn you the trend is still down. Today I did expect us to pull in after having such a huge up day yesterday, the gap up was a give away to short and it played out well. The financials got some selling today after the gap up and I think we will soon start the selling there again.
We are now in earnings season and it will be a surprise if earnings blow out to the upside as past quarters. Tech is the place I will be looking at for some earnings to come in lower than expected and surprisingly the staples as the consumer pull back on spending.
I will be sending out some option plays as we head deeper into earnings season. I still expect us to bounce alittle higher.
We are now in earnings season and it will be a surprise if earnings blow out to the upside as past quarters. Tech is the place I will be looking at for some earnings to come in lower than expected and surprisingly the staples as the consumer pull back on spending.
I will be sending out some option plays as we head deeper into earnings season. I still expect us to bounce alittle higher.
TRADE CALL UPDATE: SPY $94 CALLS.
Rolling out of these at OPEN period. They should be up huge over 100%
Monday, October 13, 2008
TRADE CALL UPDATE: SPY $94 CALLS.
WOW They are almost a double now, with this huge day up.
Was a risky play but was worth it @4.55 not a bad play. They are bidding @$8.05!!!
I would take it off tomorrow 1/2 or whole depending how much you got.
Another Huge winner again.
MARKETJEDI!!!!!!!!!
Was a risky play but was worth it @4.55 not a bad play. They are bidding @$8.05!!!
I would take it off tomorrow 1/2 or whole depending how much you got.
Another Huge winner again.
MARKETJEDI!!!!!!!!!
WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
WOW- DOW up huge here 831 point a with 5 minutes to go. Told you we are ready for a bounce, NOW the important test will come next week YES next week. There is a good chance we squeeze higher this week because of options expiration.
Bounce
Well is this the bounce I have been waiting on? I think it might be since the Treasury is working overtime now to make sure their strategies aren't lagging behind the Europeans.
This can go much higher easily as we are extremely stretched to the downside, 1023 is my first target on the S&P on the upside and from there 1056. Shorts have made the easy money the last few weeks, lets see how the bulls want to stack up here.
MARKETJEDI
This can go much higher easily as we are extremely stretched to the downside, 1023 is my first target on the S&P on the upside and from there 1056. Shorts have made the easy money the last few weeks, lets see how the bulls want to stack up here.
MARKETJEDI
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Market Thoughts
Hey folks I really don't have any good news after I did my weekend analysis on the markets. While I believe we will get a bounce the more important or disappointing thing is that the market is broken. I think people will be very very disappointed to know that the age of 401K, IRA etc might be throwing away money. I am sorry to be the bearer of bad news but I dont see where long term we will go higher. The charts tell me we have a long way to go down and I think it is possible that this is just the start of the downturn.
Now can you still make money in the markets? YES but not based on these financial planner and advisors who have exponentially multiplied during the up years. Only way to make money in the markets is to know sophisticated techniques and actively trade the market.
What is happening now in the market is something that is a once in a 100 year phenomenon that of wealth destruction. Wealth destruction is its true textbook definition is in action now. Everything will decrease in value! Gold, Platinum, Grains, Silver, Stock prices EVERYTHING will deflate. So what should we do? some of you might ask. Well knowledge of sophisticated techniques and shorting might be you best friend for years to come. Believe me folks I am usually right 95% of the time and I am telling you, dont invest in 401K, IRAs, IF you really think that these markets will be your higher in 15 years you will be sadly mistaken.
On that note get ready for my fund to be launch trading sophisticated tools which I truly believe will bring exceptional returns ESPECIALLY in this bear market period.
MARKETJEDI
Now can you still make money in the markets? YES but not based on these financial planner and advisors who have exponentially multiplied during the up years. Only way to make money in the markets is to know sophisticated techniques and actively trade the market.
What is happening now in the market is something that is a once in a 100 year phenomenon that of wealth destruction. Wealth destruction is its true textbook definition is in action now. Everything will decrease in value! Gold, Platinum, Grains, Silver, Stock prices EVERYTHING will deflate. So what should we do? some of you might ask. Well knowledge of sophisticated techniques and shorting might be you best friend for years to come. Believe me folks I am usually right 95% of the time and I am telling you, dont invest in 401K, IRAs, IF you really think that these markets will be your higher in 15 years you will be sadly mistaken.
On that note get ready for my fund to be launch trading sophisticated tools which I truly believe will bring exceptional returns ESPECIALLY in this bear market period.
MARKETJEDI
Bounce
Well I am sticking my head out here and calling for a BOUNCE. Yep I am crazy but most of the times I am right, so I hope the market is listening.
LET'S BOUNCEY :)
Should have some places this week, just stay tuned. We should set up tomorrow or tuesday
LET'S BOUNCEY :)
Should have some places this week, just stay tuned. We should set up tomorrow or tuesday
Friday, October 10, 2008
Dear Comrades
Dear Comrades from the United States of Communism, I can't believe what they are trying to implement into the markets. The SEC is seeking to ban shorts on any stock that drops 20% in a 3 day period.
We are officially the new RUSSIAN society.
Leave the markets alone THIS IS CAPITALISM
We are officially the new RUSSIAN society.
Leave the markets alone THIS IS CAPITALISM
Market
We must hold opening price on the S&P or we will get crushed. One crazy day but what am I saying! it has been one crazy week.
WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Market up - Reversal here- 700 point turn around. Now lets see what the bulls do.
They must hold it
They must hold it
Zone
We in the bounce zone I spoke about yesterday be very careful on shorts here- We are very very overstretched on the downside. Looking for long possibilities here
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Market Thoughts
Well folks- I am saying it again. We are going lower. I got some hate mail :) from some people who are obviously upset because I said the market is doomed. Well I am just a poor technical analyst and I have no agenda but to tell the TRUTH. Market might have to do something like shut down for a day or two to stop the selling :) I believe the Treasury and Government might do something drastic like come into the market and buy futures to instill some confidence as there is no confidence in the market now but it wont help.
Someone asked me how far down I think we can go but I am reluctant to say it but here it goes.
DOW-4800 S&P: 525 Nasdaq: 750.
These are ultimate lows in this bear market and recession we will have. Now nothing goes in a straight line but those numbers will be seen. No bailout will save us, I have been saying it. We have dropped 200 points since they passed the bill. I said dont pass the bill but WHO AM I. Alot of people wont be able to retire because all of their networth will vanish in the next 5-7 years, some people who thought they were rich will be poor! This market wont recover anytime soon. I think we can be in no man's land for the next 12 years so for all the pundits who keep on saying BUY and dollar cost average go ahead, be my guess.
ONLY WAY TO MAKE MONEY IS TO TRADE!!!!
I hope we rally here soon and hard because I am going to make a killing. I am just buying time here my friends on the short side.
How about those plays on the blog. Huge winners!!!
Citibank SHORT- HUGE WINNER
FSLR SHORT - HUGE WINNER
REW LONG - HUGE WINNER
SKF LONG - HUGE WINNER
QCOM - doing nice
SNDK puts - Working!
MARKETJEDI
Someone asked me how far down I think we can go but I am reluctant to say it but here it goes.
DOW-4800 S&P: 525 Nasdaq: 750.
These are ultimate lows in this bear market and recession we will have. Now nothing goes in a straight line but those numbers will be seen. No bailout will save us, I have been saying it. We have dropped 200 points since they passed the bill. I said dont pass the bill but WHO AM I. Alot of people wont be able to retire because all of their networth will vanish in the next 5-7 years, some people who thought they were rich will be poor! This market wont recover anytime soon. I think we can be in no man's land for the next 12 years so for all the pundits who keep on saying BUY and dollar cost average go ahead, be my guess.
ONLY WAY TO MAKE MONEY IS TO TRADE!!!!
I hope we rally here soon and hard because I am going to make a killing. I am just buying time here my friends on the short side.
How about those plays on the blog. Huge winners!!!
Citibank SHORT- HUGE WINNER
FSLR SHORT - HUGE WINNER
REW LONG - HUGE WINNER
SKF LONG - HUGE WINNER
QCOM - doing nice
SNDK puts - Working!
MARKETJEDI
MARKET
IF IF IF we close lower tomorrow it 'SUGGESTS' technical we will touch 7850 target on the DOW. 800 on the S&P
RISKY PLAY--
Dont play if you can't take the risk on this PERIOD. I dont want to hear if you lose.
SPY $94 CALLS- OCTOBER: $4.55
SPY $94 CALLS- OCTOBER: $4.55
DOW 8000'S
Yes folks we getting to my downside target I spoke about months ago when the market was @ 13000. I spoke about 8500 would be my first target on the downside. People said I was crazy.
941 target on the S&P HERE
941 target on the S&P HERE
TRADE CALL: FSLR short ($128.50)- UPDATE
THE PUTS CAN BE RIDDEN- But I would take 1/2 off here +$3.
As I said I prefer the stock short
As I said I prefer the stock short
TRADE CALL: FSLR short ($128.50)
FSLR short here @ $128.50
can also play the puts @ 12.50($130 October)QHB VZ , but prefer the stock short
can also play the puts @ 12.50($130 October)QHB VZ , but prefer the stock short
Thursday
We getting some upside momo here- I would not want to be short here. As said we are due for a bounce, lets see where we go
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Futures
Futures turned red here 45 minutes before open. This could get really really ugly.
Looking for some support numbers below on the S&P, 967 then 941.
Looking for some support numbers below on the S&P, 967 then 941.
FED Emergency Rate cut.
This is one of the reason I have been out of shorts in the last week. Yes I have missed some of the downside but an emergency rate cut could send us higher and catapult a rally. Now the scary thing is if we go down today on this news we in serious trouble as the FED has no more bullets in its gun. Lets see how it works out, as I said I dont want to be the last person shorting when we start to get a bounce because the bounce might be huge. Now I dont know if it today but this has the best chance to get some traction.
Talk to you later.
MARKETJEDI
Talk to you later.
MARKETJEDI
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Earnings Season
Earnings Season is here folks!
Get ready for some nice trading ranges and some super duper option plays by the MARKETJEDI :)
MARKETJEDI.
Get ready for some nice trading ranges and some super duper option plays by the MARKETJEDI :)
MARKETJEDI.
Long Term Prediction!!!!!!!
Here it goes folks I think we bounce here very soon - I currently have some numbers to watch on the S&P BUT I dont want to list them here as I am getting alot of questions from people who are not that experienced in trading the market.
I think we will get a monster day up very soon but we will get it after we get a flush out.
Long Term I think, nope I know the market is broken. I have an ultimate target on the DOW @6000. YES 6000, my ultimate low with a -20% error rate so We could goto 5000. S&P can easily goto 550 here from the charts I am looking at but these are longer term targets.
I can say this here and now WE WILL NEVER SEE DOW 15000 Period NOT FOR THE NEXT 10 years. Forget about it, it aint happening.
Stay tuned I have a few idea which should rack us up huge. Stay cash heavy
I think we will get a monster day up very soon but we will get it after we get a flush out.
Long Term I think, nope I know the market is broken. I have an ultimate target on the DOW @6000. YES 6000, my ultimate low with a -20% error rate so We could goto 5000. S&P can easily goto 550 here from the charts I am looking at but these are longer term targets.
I can say this here and now WE WILL NEVER SEE DOW 15000 Period NOT FOR THE NEXT 10 years. Forget about it, it aint happening.
Stay tuned I have a few idea which should rack us up huge. Stay cash heavy
S&P
S&P just traded below 1000. WOW folks either this set up a great buying opportunity soon or we dead in the water
We getting killed here
We are getting killed here folks- I thought the bailout bill was to save us from market going down. I hope this proves to you NOT to listen to these IDIOTS.
IDIOTS- Why don't people take off the covers over their eyes to see what is going on. It is so obvious this was a bailout just for the investment banks
IDIOTS- Why don't people take off the covers over their eyes to see what is going on. It is so obvious this was a bailout just for the investment banks
WOW
Anyone see MS?
Anyone see GS?
Anyone see BAC?
The financial bounce is over already???
I am calling Cramer :)
Anyone see GS?
Anyone see BAC?
The financial bounce is over already???
I am calling Cramer :)
Why you have to read this Blog
I put up alot of reference points on this blog for people to follow. Last week if I am not mistaken I mentioned VNO as a weak stock not as a trade call but something I saw. VNO is trading down like $20 since then.
Read the blog folks. It will make you money.
MARKETJEDI
Read the blog folks. It will make you money.
MARKETJEDI
Citibank
Slow death to Citibank here. I think Citibank will be a $5 stock when everything is said and done.
AAPL getting shot here and looks like it want $78 level. That one has totally been in the garbage. I thought it was one of the four horsemen of TECH :).
BAC- Slow death here too. This one see below $20 soon very soon.
AAPL getting shot here and looks like it want $78 level. That one has totally been in the garbage. I thought it was one of the four horsemen of TECH :).
BAC- Slow death here too. This one see below $20 soon very soon.
DOW 10000
We can't seem to hold the DOW 10000 level. The longer we stay below it the more it will act as resistance.
Sorry Cramer no DOW 15000 as you told the World.
Sorry all the analyst who said S&P YEAR END TARGET OF 1400.
SIMPLY AMAZING
Sorry Cramer no DOW 15000 as you told the World.
Sorry all the analyst who said S&P YEAR END TARGET OF 1400.
SIMPLY AMAZING
Tuesday
I was asked last night how far could we bounce IF we bounce. I would look somewhere in the 10500 level as resistance on the DOW.
Monday, October 6, 2008
Bounce today
Right now the markets are in tricky spot. We can both ways obviously but I think we are due for a bounce. The elastic band has been stretched far to the downside here and as I said last night I wouldn't be surprised if we bounce. Today we bounce off a 800 point deficit on the DOW and caught some SPY options which worked out to profit about 20% in less than an hour. My position here is caution as that could have been the bounce :) I hope not! because if that was it we in a world of hurt this week.
I do think we will bounce those and some of the stocks I am looking at will have great opportunities on the long side if we really bounce. These longs should be traded as we are no means at an ultimate bottom but nothing goes in a straight line and we have to respect that.
One stock I like here short is NTRS. It is very volatile and will get a bounce if the market bounces so be careful and have it on your radar. I liked how it bounced today and that proves we can see brutal turn arounds if we start to go long in the markets.
I do think we will bounce those and some of the stocks I am looking at will have great opportunities on the long side if we really bounce. These longs should be traded as we are no means at an ultimate bottom but nothing goes in a straight line and we have to respect that.
One stock I like here short is NTRS. It is very volatile and will get a bounce if the market bounces so be careful and have it on your radar. I liked how it bounced today and that proves we can see brutal turn arounds if we start to go long in the markets.
Going long
Yes Time to go long. I think tomorrow might be good for a poke of some longs if we gap down. I will send out trade alerts
Sorry Folks
Sorry folks but I told you so. Market wont get a darn help from bailout bill and I said months ago we could goto DOW 9000 level and I got laughed at and people said I am just too bearish. Oh well sorry to tell you but we are there. Here comes 8000's :)
The joke to me here is that stop short selling and we still heading down. We would have been in the 8000's if we were allowed to short the financials.
ANOTHER PREDICTION BECOMES REALITY
The joke to me here is that stop short selling and we still heading down. We would have been in the 8000's if we were allowed to short the financials.
ANOTHER PREDICTION BECOMES REALITY
DOW
DOW is down 525 point at lunch time with no significant bounce. We must firm up or we might have a worst day than last week monday when we were down 777 points
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
Everything getting sold here- especially TECH. Don't be too anxious here could get worst today before it gets better.
GOOG killed
AAPL killed.
GS killed.
GOOG killed
AAPL killed.
GS killed.
10000 broken
Told you - we now below 10000 on the DOW no bill will save us. YOU WERE ALL SOLD A FAKE BILL :)
Sunday, October 5, 2008
Complexity of the Situation- Part 2
Banks can't stop lending forever, that's how they make money....they take your money, pay you an interest rate on it, then lend it out at higher rates....they can not axe out the latter part of the equation indefinitely if they wish to remain in business over the long run....right now banks are just waiting out the storm just as we are to see which institutions are going to survive so they know which counter parties they can do business with confidently.....risk aversion is extremely high across the entire landscape of our financial ecosystem right now....no one wants to take on any risk whatsoever.....equities known as the best asset class to own over the long run are viewed as extremely risky, real estate is still working off excesses and prices have yet to find an official bottom, and treasury bonds the least risky asset of all are paying out yields at multi-decade lows.....however the aggregate effect of extreme risk aversion will prove to be a good thing over the long run, as over this period of time where the financial system is adjusting from one of very high risk tolerance to one of very low risk tolerance, those parties who have based their models on taking on high amounts of risk will inevitably cease to exist as risk-taking counterparties pull capital at very high velocities.....those models predicated on demand for risky assets will fall by the wayside while those models less reliant on the returns of high risk assets will be just fine......its funny how easily we forget that risky assets paying high yields do carry RISK....did wall street just completely forget about the idea of risk when investing in subprime mortgages....say it with me "SUB-PRIME".....NOT PRIME......NOT HIGH QUALITY....LOW QUALITY.....HIGH YIELD......HIGH RISK! these wall street bankers were not idiots....theyve been playing this game for decades knowing that anytime you have anything that pays a higher than average yield on an investment it means without doubt that you are taking on additional risk.....that is why you are being paid a higher than average return....to ASSUME THAT RISK! so first mistake made by wall street....taking on higher risk assets without some sort of hedge or idea that these risky assets might in fact prove to be risky assets and lead to higher than average losses.....where was this in the game plan? i cant find it anywhere....its like going into battle without any plan for possible missteps, miscalculations or even outright losing.....now mistake #2, and this is even bigger than mistake #1, LEVERAGING HIGH RISK ASSETS....how on earth can global institutions rationalize leveraging assets which payout high yields and are known to carry higher than average risk without any sort of assumption that this plan (now carrying even higher risk due to leverage!) may in fact not work as planned?? seriously i cant figure it out.....the only explanation i can think of is the idea of herd or mob mentality.....institutions looked around and saw every institution across the globe taking on these high yield high risk assets and said to themselves, look we know there are risk here, but first of all we cant just sit around while our competitors pull in higher than average returns....we'll look like losers....we need to compete.....second of all, if these assets dont work out, and all of our competitors are holding them as well, well lets face it the whole system cant come crumbling down.....can it? no....we hope not.....no way the Fed will save.....they have to they no choice.....this was the backstop!......this is the idea of mob mentality.....you no longer become a single individual but rather one small part of something much larger which allows individuals to take on actions without risk of individual failure knowing that in the end any sort of consequence will be divided out between a host of individuals possibly equating to consequences less than that of the consequence of a single individual action.....and moreover that if the entity accumulates enough individual participation to become larger in size and in power than that of the overseer of the system then there becomes the possibility that the entity can not be stopped and/or that there remains no FATHOMABLE OR REALISTIC consequence to any action carried out by the entity.....ie TOO BIG TO FAIL.
Coming Week
Just a heads up for those you like to play my TRADE CALLS. I just did some homework and I will be giving some LONG plays this week. Yes LONG :), nope I haven't turned into a bull but I am a trader and I see some opportunities setting up if we do find a smaller term bottom here.
STAY TUNED, they might be big time winners :)
MARKETJEDI
STAY TUNED, they might be big time winners :)
MARKETJEDI
Saturday, October 4, 2008
Insult to intelligence
I would like to make one point this weekend as many of you know I have been totally annoyed lately of these idiot people TWISTING the facts into pretzels and then spit them out as reality! As I've said, the IDIOTIC bill that they passed today had NOTHING to do with the market going up or down! NOTHING, NADA, NUNCA, ZIPPO! It is insulting to our intelligence to ram that down our throats as a fear mongering way to try to sway people to vote for it! The stock market is going MUCH MUCH lower, it doesn't matter what bill they pass unless they pass one where the government really decides to nationalize the ENTIRE market! That's what they should do, just pay 3 X's the share price of each stock that it'll go up! Otherwise it's NONSENSE! This was the biggest CON EVER! In the history of this country there has never been such an out and out CON JOB!
So, ok, since even congress was saying "see, if we vote no the market will go down!" and since they passed this LUDICROUS bill, then when do they come out and say "oh, gee, we passed it and the market is at MULTI YEAR LOWS anyway! So, they passed it and the market went DOWN! Frankly, its absolutely stuptifying to me that we elect people who are this ridiculously ridiculous! This bill does NOTHING for main street - NOTHING. They keep billing it as such, but its a LIE. A complete and utter LIE! Period, end of story. It doesn't create any jobs, it doesn't create a SINGLE job! Not one, unless you count some rich dudes who use this to make themselves even richer. It's sickening, truly sickening.
I'm very opinionated but I am here to help people with the markets and as such, not to tear into anyone but this impacts us ALL and we're ALL in this together. You may or may not agree with my arguments but the facts speak for themselves. The notion that this was going to solve the problems that the very people who proposed this DUMB bill helped create was and is and remains utterly ridiculous. Now, you know my obligatory thought - I HOPE I'M WRONG! I really do. I do not want to be right about this stuff, please please, let the market go up 2500 pts from here! Let this bill work and free up the credit markets! The problem is, I think that's hoping against reality here folks. In my opinion, the only thing that's REALLY happening (the rest is HOPE) is that the people who created these issues, these monster problems are being BAILED OUT! That's it,folks. That's reality. Mark to market, buying WORTHLESS distressed assets, and trust me, they are WORTHLESS, what and whom does it help? You? Me? Our families? Nope, not at all. This notion that these assets have much if ANY value is absurd.
Anyone see Bill Gross thursday on CNBC? He spun a pretty different tune today about these assets. Up til now the party line has been that the government doing this was going to create MORE value for them. That's HOGWASH. It's nonsense, and now these people are saying it, now that this IDIOTIC socialistic and downright ATROCIOUS bill has passed you'll see people say "oh, well, I never said it would work! BUT, we had to do something!"
This is a travesty and it makes me sick. I am sure the forefathers of our country are rolling over in their graves, watching the belief systems that we were founded on and that they fought for, are being decimated by rash judgement, and an out and out SCAMMING of the American people. Now, look, the market will bounce, and when it does it'll bounce heavily and then they will all say "we've bottomed" and I will continue to tell you all that it hasn't, that we are headed MUCH MUCH lower and that if you wish to survive this market and this economic disaster, you must be cash rich and pick your spots.
This bill is a travesty for democracy and the abuse that was heaped upon us to get it passed is, at least in my lifetime, unprecedented. And, the pom poms that were out leading up to this, what do they say now? Now that the market didn't just rally, now that we are sitting at multi-year lows? Now that we watched the AG sector get completely destroyed. Now what? Watch the solars, they are next to go, and the financials that have been so strong, they sold off on the news. Again, its unlikely we won't get a HUGE rally soon, we're vastly oversold, but as I've been saying, the market remains VASTLY VASTLY VASTLY overvalued and thus any rally should and must be sold into.
Sorry to rant on folks but I was just went to Sam's clubs and Walmart for my shopping I had to vent because what i saw was very disheartening. A large bottle of vegetable oil cost $30 which I was buying for $13 last year this time ( Anyone know why Oil we cook with is so high now??? I can but that's another rant for another day). Secondly while in Walmart we heard the workers talking about layoffs coming there. GEEZ- tell me how this bill and most importantly the politicians are helping the regular guy tell me? what has your politician done for you lately???? Tell me please. If nothing then stop the whole political partisan crap that is destroying this Nation and making it be a society of the haves and the have not. People are suffering out there and we are making the wealthy more wealthy is just crazy.
Have a great weekend.
MARKETJEDI
So, ok, since even congress was saying "see, if we vote no the market will go down!" and since they passed this LUDICROUS bill, then when do they come out and say "oh, gee, we passed it and the market is at MULTI YEAR LOWS anyway! So, they passed it and the market went DOWN! Frankly, its absolutely stuptifying to me that we elect people who are this ridiculously ridiculous! This bill does NOTHING for main street - NOTHING. They keep billing it as such, but its a LIE. A complete and utter LIE! Period, end of story. It doesn't create any jobs, it doesn't create a SINGLE job! Not one, unless you count some rich dudes who use this to make themselves even richer. It's sickening, truly sickening.
I'm very opinionated but I am here to help people with the markets and as such, not to tear into anyone but this impacts us ALL and we're ALL in this together. You may or may not agree with my arguments but the facts speak for themselves. The notion that this was going to solve the problems that the very people who proposed this DUMB bill helped create was and is and remains utterly ridiculous. Now, you know my obligatory thought - I HOPE I'M WRONG! I really do. I do not want to be right about this stuff, please please, let the market go up 2500 pts from here! Let this bill work and free up the credit markets! The problem is, I think that's hoping against reality here folks. In my opinion, the only thing that's REALLY happening (the rest is HOPE) is that the people who created these issues, these monster problems are being BAILED OUT! That's it,folks. That's reality. Mark to market, buying WORTHLESS distressed assets, and trust me, they are WORTHLESS, what and whom does it help? You? Me? Our families? Nope, not at all. This notion that these assets have much if ANY value is absurd.
Anyone see Bill Gross thursday on CNBC? He spun a pretty different tune today about these assets. Up til now the party line has been that the government doing this was going to create MORE value for them. That's HOGWASH. It's nonsense, and now these people are saying it, now that this IDIOTIC socialistic and downright ATROCIOUS bill has passed you'll see people say "oh, well, I never said it would work! BUT, we had to do something!"
This is a travesty and it makes me sick. I am sure the forefathers of our country are rolling over in their graves, watching the belief systems that we were founded on and that they fought for, are being decimated by rash judgement, and an out and out SCAMMING of the American people. Now, look, the market will bounce, and when it does it'll bounce heavily and then they will all say "we've bottomed" and I will continue to tell you all that it hasn't, that we are headed MUCH MUCH lower and that if you wish to survive this market and this economic disaster, you must be cash rich and pick your spots.
This bill is a travesty for democracy and the abuse that was heaped upon us to get it passed is, at least in my lifetime, unprecedented. And, the pom poms that were out leading up to this, what do they say now? Now that the market didn't just rally, now that we are sitting at multi-year lows? Now that we watched the AG sector get completely destroyed. Now what? Watch the solars, they are next to go, and the financials that have been so strong, they sold off on the news. Again, its unlikely we won't get a HUGE rally soon, we're vastly oversold, but as I've been saying, the market remains VASTLY VASTLY VASTLY overvalued and thus any rally should and must be sold into.
Sorry to rant on folks but I was just went to Sam's clubs and Walmart for my shopping I had to vent because what i saw was very disheartening. A large bottle of vegetable oil cost $30 which I was buying for $13 last year this time ( Anyone know why Oil we cook with is so high now??? I can but that's another rant for another day). Secondly while in Walmart we heard the workers talking about layoffs coming there. GEEZ- tell me how this bill and most importantly the politicians are helping the regular guy tell me? what has your politician done for you lately???? Tell me please. If nothing then stop the whole political partisan crap that is destroying this Nation and making it be a society of the haves and the have not. People are suffering out there and we are making the wealthy more wealthy is just crazy.
Have a great weekend.
MARKETJEDI
Friday, October 3, 2008
TRADE CALL UPDATE:
Get out of all GS and Citibank short and puts here- They are killing them into the close, excellent call.
Have a great weekend!!!
MARKETJEDI
Have a great weekend!!!
MARKETJEDI
TRADE CALL UPDATE: GS PUTS
selling them here @$7.35
SWEET. 50% IN ONE DAY SWEET
only winners here!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
SWEET. 50% IN ONE DAY SWEET
only winners here!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
TRADE CALL: VERY VERY HIGH RISK!!!!!!!!!!
This trade is only for those with deep risk tolerance
GS $130 PUTS ( GS VF) @$4.80.
Might be a very stupid play or a very good play. The wild card here is definitely the passing of the bill so dont go crazy on it. Just a HUNCH trade.
GS $130 PUTS ( GS VF) @$4.80.
Might be a very stupid play or a very good play. The wild card here is definitely the passing of the bill so dont go crazy on it. Just a HUNCH trade.
Market
Market is still waiting on the bill passing on the House. Currently the S&P forming a rising wedge meaning they can take us higher
Citibank VS Wachovia
MIght have some legal problems with Well Fargo. I dont like those kind of plays so lets take all off. Nice play with profit.
MARKETJEDI
MARKETJEDI
TRADE CALL UPDATE : CITIBANK PUTS
Ok folks sometimes it pays to follow your guts and sometimes it doesn't. It has been awhile since I doubled up on a play and it looks like it will work out fantastic. Citibank is trading down on the news that Well Fargo and Wachovia will now merge.
The options here I would wait to see where they opened and since it was a double up play I would take off 1/2 today and ride the rest.
ONLY WINNERS HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!
MARKETJEDI
The options here I would wait to see where they opened and since it was a double up play I would take off 1/2 today and ride the rest.
ONLY WINNERS HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!
MARKETJEDI
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Another Note on Derivative and leverage.
As an addition to the blog post before I have some statistics on the amount of derivative currently in the market place.
Before the huge mortgage back derivative market of the 2000's the derivative market was averaging $80 trillion. The housing bubble drove the derivative market up to $600 trillion. It is estimated that about 60-75% of these derivatives are now worthless meaning we have about 400 trillion in derivative losses on paper. Now if that dont tell you $700 Billion wont do anything I dont know what to tell you, even if banks only hold 1/4 of these losses that $700 billion is just a bandaid on a huge deep wound.
MARKETJEDI
Before the huge mortgage back derivative market of the 2000's the derivative market was averaging $80 trillion. The housing bubble drove the derivative market up to $600 trillion. It is estimated that about 60-75% of these derivatives are now worthless meaning we have about 400 trillion in derivative losses on paper. Now if that dont tell you $700 Billion wont do anything I dont know what to tell you, even if banks only hold 1/4 of these losses that $700 billion is just a bandaid on a huge deep wound.
MARKETJEDI
Complexity of the Situation- Part 1.
I got a request today to explain what is going on in the Banking industry and where we stand as regular citizens in the equation. Well here it goes!!!!!
Firstly, many factors are at work here, some good and some bad, some easily explained and some rather complex in nature without going off on a scholastic tangent.
Personally I 'THINK' the credit crisis is mainly due to the banks lack of knowledge on what is on their books. Banks especially Investment banks were mainly pushing papers off as assets in the past years especially in the derivatives market. Today they find themselves scavenging through their books to valuate what these papers are now currently worth much linked to mortgages. In a desperate move by most banks to try and sure up their balance sheets they have currently cut off credit, some will ask why? as it is the banks' business to lend monies, I say yes and no. In the past few years banks have changed their core business model to mostly offering services, investing their own capital and acting as brokerage to wealth individuals. The model basically utilized their market capitalization into leverage (borrowed funds) to make money (profit). When this model stop working recently the leverage bit them where it hurts the most: their capitalization. As market forces drove their stock prices down their capitalization fell faster than they anticipated due to their high leverage they consequently had to go into the market to raise capital to sure up their books.
Leverage can be good and bad. Obviously it works great when you are right but when you are wrong it can be your demise as can be seen in the late Bear Sterns, Lehman etc.
Today the banks are so used to making money through leverage and advisory services, that they have forgotten the basics of banking and therefore don't understand the economic implications of their actions of not freeing up credit in the market. Today's credit crunch is solely to blame on the BANKS. The banks are the providers of capital and credit in the marketplace and their current actions of limiting funds have not only worked against them where depositors withdraw funds, essentially forcing a run on some banks but also has have the effect of decreased value of their stock and thus market capitalization.
The current $700Billion if passed wont have much effect if the Banks DONT start lending and grease the wheels of the economy again. The Banks are the root of the current economic problem and not the politicians who have no idea of economics in a more macro global sense.
Somethings have gotten me scared when it comes to the market and I will explain. Warren Buffet investment in Goldman and General Electric will go down in history as one of the greatest investments ever made in the markets. The two investments virtually have no negative implications for Buffet as he will get 10% per annum on his investment but if that's not good enough, he also has warrants to buy stock at a predetermined price, just an awesome deal all around. On the opposite side of the coin we have to look at the 10% being charged carefully. GE and Goldman Sachs paying so much for capital tells me no one is lending funds and capital has dried up for american corporations. GE paying 10% is like someone with perfect credit getting a mortgage for 15% in the current market for comparison. Capital is scare for us in America because all of the money is in China, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Japan, YEP America is broke on paper YES it is but I digress.
The FED has been pumping money into the system for the last 20 months and we are getting deeper and deeper into a credit crisis why??? Again it is SIMPLE, those injected funds are doing nothing but paying off for the leveraged losses of the banks, think of it like this: If you are heavily in debt, lets say 40k and you inherit a 60K cash windfall you are only 20K richer, that's exactly what is happening to the influx of money into the money supply by the FED. The FED is pannicking to say the least here! This past monday the FED injected $500 Billion into the system as the first voting of the Bill for $700 Billion failed. Imagine that! the FED injection of $500Billion SHOULD have some effect comparable to the $700Billion but it DIDN'T, this is SCARY!!!!!
Part 2 This weekend.
MARKETJEDI
Firstly, many factors are at work here, some good and some bad, some easily explained and some rather complex in nature without going off on a scholastic tangent.
Personally I 'THINK' the credit crisis is mainly due to the banks lack of knowledge on what is on their books. Banks especially Investment banks were mainly pushing papers off as assets in the past years especially in the derivatives market. Today they find themselves scavenging through their books to valuate what these papers are now currently worth much linked to mortgages. In a desperate move by most banks to try and sure up their balance sheets they have currently cut off credit, some will ask why? as it is the banks' business to lend monies, I say yes and no. In the past few years banks have changed their core business model to mostly offering services, investing their own capital and acting as brokerage to wealth individuals. The model basically utilized their market capitalization into leverage (borrowed funds) to make money (profit). When this model stop working recently the leverage bit them where it hurts the most: their capitalization. As market forces drove their stock prices down their capitalization fell faster than they anticipated due to their high leverage they consequently had to go into the market to raise capital to sure up their books.
Leverage can be good and bad. Obviously it works great when you are right but when you are wrong it can be your demise as can be seen in the late Bear Sterns, Lehman etc.
Today the banks are so used to making money through leverage and advisory services, that they have forgotten the basics of banking and therefore don't understand the economic implications of their actions of not freeing up credit in the market. Today's credit crunch is solely to blame on the BANKS. The banks are the providers of capital and credit in the marketplace and their current actions of limiting funds have not only worked against them where depositors withdraw funds, essentially forcing a run on some banks but also has have the effect of decreased value of their stock and thus market capitalization.
The current $700Billion if passed wont have much effect if the Banks DONT start lending and grease the wheels of the economy again. The Banks are the root of the current economic problem and not the politicians who have no idea of economics in a more macro global sense.
Somethings have gotten me scared when it comes to the market and I will explain. Warren Buffet investment in Goldman and General Electric will go down in history as one of the greatest investments ever made in the markets. The two investments virtually have no negative implications for Buffet as he will get 10% per annum on his investment but if that's not good enough, he also has warrants to buy stock at a predetermined price, just an awesome deal all around. On the opposite side of the coin we have to look at the 10% being charged carefully. GE and Goldman Sachs paying so much for capital tells me no one is lending funds and capital has dried up for american corporations. GE paying 10% is like someone with perfect credit getting a mortgage for 15% in the current market for comparison. Capital is scare for us in America because all of the money is in China, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Japan, YEP America is broke on paper YES it is but I digress.
The FED has been pumping money into the system for the last 20 months and we are getting deeper and deeper into a credit crisis why??? Again it is SIMPLE, those injected funds are doing nothing but paying off for the leveraged losses of the banks, think of it like this: If you are heavily in debt, lets say 40k and you inherit a 60K cash windfall you are only 20K richer, that's exactly what is happening to the influx of money into the money supply by the FED. The FED is pannicking to say the least here! This past monday the FED injected $500 Billion into the system as the first voting of the Bill for $700 Billion failed. Imagine that! the FED injection of $500Billion SHOULD have some effect comparable to the $700Billion but it DIDN'T, this is SCARY!!!!!
Part 2 This weekend.
MARKETJEDI
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Euro Zone
Chatter from Euro zone of a massive bailout of financial institutions dwarfing the 700billion proposed by the FED here.
Things are getting very interesting
Things are getting very interesting
Financials
Financials are the leads here over lunch. Lets see if they can mount a rally on their backs
TRADE CALL :Citibank PUTS
This is very rare I double up on plays but I am goign to double up here on those $22.50 puts on Citibank here.
Buying here @$2.95.
Average is now $3.50
Buying here @$2.95.
Average is now $3.50
October
Well first of the month and most hedge funds will be posting there performances to their clients. Alot of hedge funds have been getting crushed and I assume some will want to pull there funds as things are getting more and more unsure as we go on. Lets see how we react today and possibly tomorrow on a bailout plan.
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