OIL

Hehehehehe how sweet patience is???

Bingo!

Monday

Wont be in today- I would be looking to fade this gap up as it stands an hour before the open. I do believe we have put in a short term high last week BUT we have to see how we consolidate around that trading range of friday's action.

GS-looks lower

Overnight

So it is Sunday 8:00pm and futures are down not much but breaching some significant levels. Oil up more than a buck.

We will see what happens tomorrow.

what I see

Trendline currently of the market- Though we printed a heavy day down on Friday we must be cautious on monday. What would be the perfect scenario is a gap up and a test of Fridays' low on the opposite side if we gap down I would be looking for a fad to relieve some of that nasty selling on Friday.

Closing numbers

1276 - hmm who said that number? Oh well will be interesting to see what happens over the weekend with Egypt

WOW

IF these guys hit 1276 today. We will be in for some selling for sure in the coming trading days weeks.
Bad sign and if we hit 1276 and don't bounce and hit 1272 forget it, that 1302 might be highs for now.

OK

S&P taking a beating here- 1288 is the number to watch on the closing basis. If we close below 1288 we set a bearish tone for next week.
Man look at Oil MOOOOOVVVVE.

OIL OIL OIL

Sitting on this oil for the last 4 days- Look at it go. PATIENCE!!!!
Got a new play - rack them up

OIL

Oil flying on the Egypt news. Not looking good, It will be interesting to see how the US government response to this.

GOLD

Gold getting the pullback it needs- GOLD will see new highs in year I think but this pullback is healthy. 1297 seems like a nice spot to dip foot in for long term but I wouldn't be surprised if we go a tad lower.

WRONG CNBC

Again the idiots on CNBC all wrong or maybe they had the right trade but wanted all the viewers to take the opposite trade so they would rack up.
On their stupid show they said people buying AMZN $200 calls like crazy, so the stock will trade higher, REALLY. They missed, I know they would but I wont let out my secrets :)

AMZN

DEATH DEATH-

AMZN

with the option pricing so high to hedge, I am leaving the stop tight on this one @ 185.

This must be a Joke

So we hit 1300 and CNBC idiots having a party. Oh ok so the first time we hit 1300 was in 1999, yes 12 years ago so technically we have gone no where in 12 yrs! wow yep lets take out the hats. Man oh Man when will this madness stop.

Ok watch this 1305 area. Ideal situation would be us to trade around this area and hit it monday for a better short into turn around tuesday. That would be the best set up

NFLX

Is NFLX stock a fad, man that think is just too parabolic, just look on that two year chart WOW.
1305 Target on the Spoos (S&P) is almost here. I see people calling for 1310 but 1305 is where I would be lining up some positions.

We will see soon enough.

AMZN

have 1/2 position of AMZN short but earnings are up so I will keep with a wide stop. maybe $7.50 stop.
If stopped out no problem as it was 1/2 position

HAHAH- CNBC

Just turned onto CNBC and as usual analyzing after the fact. They were talking about they pullback in Gold the last few trading days so we obviously in a sell off. Oh ok I said on this blog weeks ago we would pullback, calling stuff after it happens don't make money. CNBC if you do listen to it is just white noise, don't follow these folks just not logical.
Do your own reading is much better than there analysis. Watch what is going to happen and I am calling it years in advance. This market will make lows in 2012/3 time frame and I guarantee they will be saying buy buy buy right before we dive big.
2013 lows is the real buy able low.

Turn around Tuesday

Hmmm, the early trading action has us in effect.

Oil

Oil getting a dive early this morning. See what a little patience give you, presents :)
I expect the equities to rest and possibly reverse today as a turn around tuesday play.

Davos- yahoo finance

The annual World Economic Forum opens this week under a cloud of economic worries, concern over China's growing influence in politics and business, and simmering anxieties over Europe's debt crisis.

Ahead of Wednesday's start, the meeting was greeted with news that Russian President Dmitry Medvedev had postponed his planned departure to Switzerland after what officials called a suicide bombing at Moscow's busiest airport killed 31 people and wounding about 130.

Organizers said Medvedev would still give the opening address on Wednesday evening. But they said his stay in Davos would be shortened.

Despite the lingering locksteps of fear, organizers of the five-day annual meeting — which will draw some 2,500 political and business leaders Jan. 26-30 — are optimistic that the debates, discussions and exchanges of ideas can provide a roadmap of sorts on the way forward after three years of global financial and economic turmoil.

"It's the first — I would call it post-crisis — meeting," Forum founder and executive chairman Klaus Schwab told The Associated Press Monday. "We have avoided the worst of the crisis, but we have not yet started to really build our future. Davos is the place to look at the new reality and see how we should construct our future."

The list of leaders headed to the Alpine town includes President Felipe Calderon of Mexico, British Prime Minister David Cameron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, all part of the Group of 20 club of rich and developing countries.

Other G-20 leaders slated to attend are South African President Jacob Zuma, Indonesia President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and European Union Council President Herman Van Rompuy.

Skeptics note that while the gathering is a key stop for many executives and newly-minted national leaders to share a global and media-saturated stage, at times the meeting has not been prescient about coming financial eruptions.

Much has been made of the fact that last year's forum had little to say about the sovereign debt crisis that spread like wildfire across Europe several months later.

But Yngve Abrahamsen, an economist at Zurich's Swiss Economic Institute, said that may be asking too much even of the concentrated expertise that descends on the Swiss Alps each year.

"Peering into the economic future is always difficult," Abrahamsen said. "You might as well hire astrologists, because nobody knows what's going to happen in three months time."

"If anything, Davos is a little bit faster at picking up global themes," he said. "But a year ago nobody knew that the blowback from the bank bailouts would be so fast."

Abrahamsen said the one charge many participants — especially banking leaders — might face is that they were quick to cozy up to governments when they needed a bailout, but when countries faced imminent bankruptcy they turned around and ratcheted up the interest rates.

The European sovereign debt crisis has rocked financial markets since then, and led some to wonder if the euro could even break up.

Schwab said he doesn't think it will.

"I'm absolutely sure that the euro will not collapse because I think there is still a strong European solidarity in place," he told AP. "Europe, in this new world that is coming up, if it wants to become a key actor and stay a key actor it has to express itself in terms of its unity and it has to make sure that euro is also secured by a much greater common effort, working together in fiscal monetary and general economic policies."

Organizers are trying to answer their critics this year by taking time to discuss how to deal with unforeseen risk — the "unknown unknowns" as former U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld once put it.

The oil industry was hit by the reaction to the Gulf of Mexico disaster; governments have been struggling to contain the fallout from the WikiLeaks revelations; and anybody who said Tunisia would be the first Middle East country to see a popular revolution in years would have been laughed out of the room not two months ago.

A report compiled by the forum's in-house think tank highlights 37 global risks ranging from cyber warfare to public uprisings resulting from population growth and resource shortages. Sudden food price rises have already sparked alarm in Asia.

The surging cost of food in China pushed inflation there to 4.6 percent in December, and the ruling Communist Party is expected to respond by raising interest rates to tame price rises.

"Every uncertainty in the world has to do with Chinese politics," said Arturo Bries, a finance professor at the IMD business school in Lausanne. "I'm not expecting any surprises from the Western leaders, but we may have surprises coming from China."

As planned

As planned with a little waiting we going to hit that 1305 and we making the pullback in the commodities as expected. I suspected it would have happened last week but better late than never. Stuff setting up nicely to soon make some entries.

Gold, Oil

Gold and Oil getting the pullback we need to get on board long. Just a little patience, will get a better entry.

AMZN

shorted 1/2- 177.35. This is a medium term play.
Could be early as I am now getting some targets high than the previous 1305. I am getting some numbers around 1324 now. That's the reason only 1/2 position here.

Plays

I think I see some plays I might post- I have been watching carefully and I still holding my analysis that 1305 is an excellent risk reward play to hold shorts. Longer term I think we dive somewhere in 2012/3 as said months ago. It is from my analysis that they are setting up a phantom push in equities to sandbag folks again. The charts just don't lie.

Most Gold and Silver cycles point to a high in 2012 which matches the expected low for the US Dollar in late 2012, and is probably the reason why Gold has not gone parabolic yet like Oil and Natural Gas in their charts.

I think their will be lots of volatility to come as folks are getting complacent and this will cause volatile moves when issues arise.

We will see soon enough

AMZN- Short 1/2 position on Monday if new low is made after 10am.

So far

Not much to sink teeth into after a gap up- I am still looking for a push to that high range 1305 on the S&P and then analyze where we go from there.

Gold

Love this pullback on Gold- Wrote about Gold recently and looking for a decent pullback to get long..

Ditto for Oil

AMZN

So tempted to short AMZN here- acting a bit weak.
Looks like 1272 will be back in play on the downside

YAWN

Not much action here today- GS lower earnings on training revenues should be a sign to all that not much volume is happening in the markets. Last year I have to say most of the stealth rally missed most because it was just not safe to play. I was one who also played cautious but when you look at GS report you can see their biggest clients (hedge funds) also did the same.

Steve

I feel like this is it for Steve at the head of Apple. I wish him all the best and hope he beats his health issues.

Steve

I feel like this is it for Steve at the head of Apple. I wish him all the best and hope he beats his health issues.

early next week

Early next week watch for that 1305 area to be taken. That's when I will be ready to play, patience just patience.

Gold

So Gold is getting a pullback but looks like the pullback will be deeper- Gold long after a pullback is a low risk play and should be profitable quickly. Still looking for the markets to drift higher.

Game Plan

If we didn't start earnings season I would be setting up shorts here for a pullback but with earnings season at hand I expect us to slowly grind up to a out of range overbought situation. I will be looking at some spots higher to get on board. There is a possibility that this could be the pullback in progress after hitting the 1286 BUT earnings is the outside element here.
1302-1305 area if we get there might be a better short by my analysis.

Gold

For the gold bugs- Gold looks like it wants to rest here. I would be taking Gold long on a size able pullback to maybe its 150 MA.

Magic-

Looked where we closed- total MAGIC :)

BINGO

With 50 mins to go- I got to give myself a huge BINGO as I called this area two weeks ago. Since we hit it early today we have been unable to get above it and we are stuck. It will be interesting to see what they do in the last 20 mins

Tik-Tok-Tik-Tok

1286, 1286, 1286, just so magical.
After this week we will set out a pattern that is more clear, then we should be ready to go with some plays.

1286-BINGO!!!!!

Look at that- 1286 HOD, so far we are two hours in, lets see what they will do.

BINGO!!!

Gap

Less than an hour before the open and seem the market will get a gap up- Still looking for my upper limit targets to get hit, will it get there today, no idea but we will see.

Gold

I can't help but think Gold will go higher as I look at these dollar charts- The dollar looks like it is trying but it wont go much higher. Remember weaker $, high commodity prices

Iphone

Iphone- No thanks, paying $200 for a 1 year old phone makes no sense. That's like buying a 10 yr old porsche at the same price of a new one and saying you driving it on the autobahn.
I am due for a phone soon very soon and Android it will be. I will never leave Verizon but I would never get a phone with old technology. I will be looking into one of these super faster android like the bionic, looks awesome.


:)

Oil

Note what I said about Oil- Look at that sucker get traction- remember my target for a mid year high- very possible we get there.

OPen

Open above the 1272, let's see what we do today. Today should be positive, why? It is called the turnaround tuesday if you been reading my blog for years you should know.
Watching the action here on Oil because earnings might spike it higher on the belief the economy is getting better.

We will see soon enough.

Today all I am looking at is the 11:00 Verizon announcement :)

Real BIG Picture

Market is in bullish tone and I expect us to trend higher. No doubt in my longer term cycles charts I see higher market in 2012 then a long term bear market into 2016. I would not be a total bear till 2012 and IF we get to new highs somewhere in 2012 that will be the clue to 'SHORT AT WILL', we are just working off the huge bear market impulse with a slow grind but valuation are way off the charts, ie look at APPLE. Never the less charts tell me higher into a top in 2012 so we will see.

1286, (1284*)

We still have NOT touched the target 1286, all we have hit is the range and the 1260 that was spoken about over a month ago. I do expect 1286 to be in play and the only way it does not play is if we hit 1252 and confirm with a 1240 close which I think wont happen while earnings are flowing in. I am on the wall here and will still take a cautious approach till the overbought signals wear off. Hard to take new longs here as the signals are blinking overbought but it is tough to short as the pullback or not holding as we are in a bullish tone.

PATIENCE!

1272!!!

Did someone call for 1272, 2 1/2 hours ago???

Brave 1265

I would take profits @ 1272.

If we get there-

Article- But who didn't know this

To hear a number of prominent economists tell it, it doesn't look good for the U.S. economy, not this year, not in 10 years.

Leading thinkers in the dismal science speaking at an annual convention offered varying visions of U.S. economic decline, in the short, medium and long term. This year, the recovery may bog down as government stimulus measures dry up.

In the long run, the United States must face up to inevitably being overtaken by China as the world's largest economy. And it may have missed a chance to rein in its largest financial institutions, many of whom remain too big to fail and are getting bigger.

On the one hand, Harvard's Martin Feldstein said he believes the outlook for U.S. economic growth in 2011 is less sanguine than many believe.

First, the boost to growth from government spending will be drying up this year, he said. Renewal of expiring tax cuts is no more than a decision not to raise taxes, and the impact of one-year payroll tax cut is likely modest, he said.

"There's really not much help coming from fiscal policy in the year ahead," he said. Woes from the dire situations of state and local governments may actually be a drag on growth, he said.

Growth got a lift from a lower saving rate in 2010, but that probably will not last this year as households worried about an uncertain future return to paring back debt and socking more away, Feldstein added. Discouraging declines in home values mean there is less to save from, he said.

"People are worried, so there's a strong reason for precautionary saving," he said.

THE RACE IS ON

On the other hand, there is the race with China and the dynamic Asian economies, including India. Most estimates put the size of the Chinese economy on par with the United States by the early 2020s, said Dale Jorgenson, also of Harvard.

Jorgenson sees Asian emerging markets as the most dynamic in the world, eclipsing other emerging market contenders such as Brazil and Russia with steady growth over the next decade.

"The rise of developing Asia is going to accompany slower world economic growth," he said.

The United States will need to come to terms with the fact that its prevalence in the world is fated to come to an end, Jorgenson said. This will be difficult for many Americans to swallow and the United States should brace for social unrest amid blame over who was responsible for squandering global primacy, he said.

MIT's Simon Johnson put it more bluntly, saying the damage from the financial crisis and its aftermath have dealt U.S. prominence a permanent blow.

"The age of American predominance is over," he told a panel. "The (Chinese) Yuan will be the world's reserve currency within two decades."

Johnson said he believes the United States has failed to learn its lesson from the financial crisis and continues to implicitly back its largest financial institutions.

"I'm concerned about the excessive power of the largest global banks," he said. "Who are the government-sponsored enterprises now? It's the six biggest bank holding companies."

To be sure, Raghuram Rajan, a former IMF chief economist now with the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business, could still envision an ongoing U.S. leadership role.

Nothing proceeds in a straight line, he said, and there are many pitfalls along the way even for dynamic Asian economies.

"I would say the age of American dominance may be nearing an end. But America as the biggest mover will be in place for a long time," he said.

Bouncee Bounce

Who told you 1265 would provide a bounce- Now lets see if we get through the HOD and where we stop.

1265

This area might provide a long opportunity for the brave at heart.

Continue

Looks like the market is working off some of its overbought technical conditions. I would give the market till this weekend to see where we are. Most fund managers got their new funds and put in to work last week so for me the first week of the year trade is NEVER a trend indication.

So tomorrow is the big announcement- Iphone on Verizon, best network having the top selling phone should be interesting if it is 4G-LTE compatible, if it is I expect it to be a huge seller.
The sprint and T-mobiles of the world will have a serious task on their hands if it is so, make sure you watch those stock as they will be in place from this announcement.

Overbought continue

As noted overbought signals are all over and we are getting mild pullback. Now the question is how big and long will be the pullback. Recently most of the pullback have been shallow and without much force.

We will see soon enough.

Overbought????

Getting overbought signals around the market BUT last week before the new years I saw many stocks that looked like death patterns forming reversed and traded higher for the first couple of days in the new year. So what do you do here, when in doubt sit on hands-
Still believe we will go a bit higher but more than likely we need to work off these overbought signals to do so. Can we say possible sideway action

Debt ceiling

Debt ceiling news is hitting the markets but who cares really because we really don't want to face the reality that the DOW is worth 4400 and we have a crippling debt that seems not to matter to the powers that be, so just print more money so the economy can be fueled by China, German and Japanese savers.
The cycle continues......

First prediction

I like to make predictions every year- I would say 9/10 times I am correct and here is my first prediction :)

July 2011 Oil has a peak cycle and by the action I have been seeing it is very likely we will hit that $108 area.
We will see soon enough

First week

First week almost 1/2 way in and I am waiting feverishly for it to end. In my years studying the markets I have found that the first two weeks of the year are the most deceiving and one must not way decisions of its action. So with that I am sitting and waiting till the dust clears of the manipulation to drag the unsuspected in.

Area to remember

Area to remember folks is 1286 on the S&P. I think we get there- See previous posts on this area.

New Year

So we start the new year- though 2010 was a challenging trading year I do see some opportunities that might happen. Saying that I think this year we will see the highs for the next 3 years as the cycles predicts a start to the decline in this period.
I will be watching the January effect sectors and see which ones move for a mid February long term shorting opportunity and most importantly I will be looking at the volume to really confirm if investors still don't have the appetite for equities.


Happy News Year