Sunday, January 31, 2010
TARP mixed results
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/overseer-bank-bailout-program-has-mixed-results-2010-01-31
AAPL Update
Update AAPL though the big spike up on the Ipad news we manage to head south bound from the last update on this one. Another nice set up
JPM
looking over some charts for this week, JPM looks weak. Last week it broken down through its support area lying around the $40 area.
Friday, January 29, 2010
No Updates
No updates today- I have to be out and more than likely I won't return before markets close.
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Soveriegn Debt
We getting a little bounce here. I guess that 1076 was right on the money though it went a couple ticks below for a bounce. The Soveriegn debt in Europe seems to be the major problem to the sell off but remember we closing in on the later part of the earnings season and that will prove a problem for us to move higher if all the good news is 100% from earnings. All the other news being presented to the markets are negative so the true test will be key.
Greece is in trouble and who next in line is a toss up. All this means is that the FED will soon have to act and higher rates will be on us.
Greece is in trouble and who next in line is a toss up. All this means is that the FED will soon have to act and higher rates will be on us.
Monday's post
Monday I had a post in reference to the 1081 we traded down to and said that no where in my analysis did I get this number but I did get a 1076 number. 1076 just traded BUT we didn't stop there and bounce we went through though not by much. We should get a bounce in that area but that fact that it went through that level shows that there is more on the downside to come.
Important number to look at on the downside is 1054. Remember that was the all important number coming up to these levels. Now if we trade down to 1054 this week we would have a marking for a substantial pullback in the markets. remember it was just last week we traded 1150. It will get interesting here as alot of the flat market movement in the last three months of the year is expanding here but to the bulls disappointment to the downside.
Important number to look at on the downside is 1054. Remember that was the all important number coming up to these levels. Now if we trade down to 1054 this week we would have a marking for a substantial pullback in the markets. remember it was just last week we traded 1150. It will get interesting here as alot of the flat market movement in the last three months of the year is expanding here but to the bulls disappointment to the downside.
OTHER SIDE OF 10000
Other side of 10k coming soon as stated last week. 1103 was the exact top last night by a tick on the Futures. T
SWEET!!!!
SWEET!!!!
APPLE
Apple has lost ass of its gains it made yesterday on the Ipad hype. It is still in danger or marking out a bear flag, be careful on this one.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
1103
Futures just hit 1103 overnight- short here
1113 would be a nicer rebound area to short. Remember we are oversold from last week selling and a bounce is expected. Alot of folks talking like this is a start of a meaningful decline i don't believe that yet. I still think we will try for higher after we take a rest. We just getting our ABC off the 5 wave count up here
1113 would be a nicer rebound area to short. Remember we are oversold from last week selling and a bounce is expected. Alot of folks talking like this is a start of a meaningful decline i don't believe that yet. I still think we will try for higher after we take a rest. We just getting our ABC off the 5 wave count up here
Observation
GOOG:
looks like it is in a minor bear flag. Looks valid to me maybe worth a poke on the short side but this is an expensive stock and the options are well juiced the last time I looked
looks like it is in a minor bear flag. Looks valid to me maybe worth a poke on the short side but this is an expensive stock and the options are well juiced the last time I looked
Volume
Volume at a stand still Geithner is testifying and FED announcement later.
Good day to take a stroll
Good day to take a stroll
S&P
Well we getting the bounces from the oversold structure of last weak but to be honest I thought we would have bounced more. I am looking at a bounce to probably 1097 area to reshort.Today being FED day should be a boring day I would not try and trade today as FED days volume usually start tappering off @ 10:30 till the announcement @ 2:15. Also remember today is also Bernanke's confirmation.
So numbers to watch 1097 then 1103.
So numbers to watch 1097 then 1103.
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Gold Bugs
There are so many facts that clearly validate that Gold should continue to rise and the dollar should sink into the dust. However, the worst news for now has been priced into the dollar and when too many people start to take an extreme view, a turnaround is usually close at hand. Given the fact that the Dollar has mounted an impressive rally in the last few weeks and that there are so many large discrepancies surrounding Gold's surge to new highs, caution is warranted.
The correction in Gold will only gather steam if a weekly sell signal is generated. So far, it has generated a daily sells signal and if a weekly sell signal is not generated then Gold will most likely trade no lower than 990.
Let's see what happens on the weekly charts on Gold after this week.
The correction in Gold will only gather steam if a weekly sell signal is generated. So far, it has generated a daily sells signal and if a weekly sell signal is not generated then Gold will most likely trade no lower than 990.
Let's see what happens on the weekly charts on Gold after this week.
Interesting
Credit or blame who you will. The Senate Banking Committee, which seems more interested in holding a hearing with Paul Volcker over President Obama's banking proposals than the full body does in holding a vote to confirm the current chairman of the Federal Reserve. Elliott Wave Theorist Bob Prechter, who caused bulls' skin to crawl and stomachs to flip in a late afternoon CNBC interview, where he insisted that the next wave down for stocks is now underway. Small investors, who refuse to help hedge funds and others keep stocks propped up, and remain AWOL from this waning cyclical rally.
No matter your choice(s) of villain, the fact that the stock market has not meaningfully rallied from last week's beating is ominous. Today specifically, the Dow's nearly 100-point gain from early in the day was suspect from the start, accompanied as it was with little volume. The few bulls steadfastly keeping their fingers in the dyke did their best to rally stocks a few times after the early day push higher wavered. But by the time Prechter was interviewed by CNBC's Sue Herrera, the Dow's gain was whittled down to less than 30 points, and most other indices had already turned lower.
Adding to the technical damage of the lousy volume and breadth was that the markets' late day flagging gave us outside days with virtually all of the major indices. This means that today's highs were higher than yesterday's highest level, and today's lowest levels were lower than yesterday's lowest point. More often than not, the near-term bias is in favor of the close; which today was down, albeit slightly. Now, we found out the hard way a couple times last fall that an outside day down doesn't always translate into the continuation of a downtrend, if there are enough other forces to keep things rising. But the markets' overall mood has changed, as I said the other day.
One thing not mentioned prominently as the market frittered away the rest of its rally is the most common-sense reason for it having done so: few want to be "long" when the next few days could still bring political shocks to Wall Street. Even if I was a bull right now, I'd at least want to have one foot by the exit door in advance of tomorrow's House hearing where God-knows-what other shoe(s) may drop over the whole A.I.G. thing. Who knows whether one Ben Bernanke's name might come up? Undecided senators don't know; that's one reason they are publicly undecided. Apart from those 30 or so members of the Senate who have publicly said they'll vote for Helicopter Ben (and have thus revealed themselves as the central banking system's most reliable whores) most of the rest at least have enough sense to wait until after the House hearing.
No matter your choice(s) of villain, the fact that the stock market has not meaningfully rallied from last week's beating is ominous. Today specifically, the Dow's nearly 100-point gain from early in the day was suspect from the start, accompanied as it was with little volume. The few bulls steadfastly keeping their fingers in the dyke did their best to rally stocks a few times after the early day push higher wavered. But by the time Prechter was interviewed by CNBC's Sue Herrera, the Dow's gain was whittled down to less than 30 points, and most other indices had already turned lower.
Adding to the technical damage of the lousy volume and breadth was that the markets' late day flagging gave us outside days with virtually all of the major indices. This means that today's highs were higher than yesterday's highest level, and today's lowest levels were lower than yesterday's lowest point. More often than not, the near-term bias is in favor of the close; which today was down, albeit slightly. Now, we found out the hard way a couple times last fall that an outside day down doesn't always translate into the continuation of a downtrend, if there are enough other forces to keep things rising. But the markets' overall mood has changed, as I said the other day.
One thing not mentioned prominently as the market frittered away the rest of its rally is the most common-sense reason for it having done so: few want to be "long" when the next few days could still bring political shocks to Wall Street. Even if I was a bull right now, I'd at least want to have one foot by the exit door in advance of tomorrow's House hearing where God-knows-what other shoe(s) may drop over the whole A.I.G. thing. Who knows whether one Ben Bernanke's name might come up? Undecided senators don't know; that's one reason they are publicly undecided. Apart from those 30 or so members of the Senate who have publicly said they'll vote for Helicopter Ben (and have thus revealed themselves as the central banking system's most reliable whores) most of the rest at least have enough sense to wait until after the House hearing.
FOMC
Remember FOMC announcement tomorrow- More than likely that's why the markets are doing nothing. More than likely no action till after announcement tomorrow.
Booooooooorrrrrrrrriiiiiiiinnnng!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Booooooooorrrrrrrrriiiiiiiinnnng!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
1081 Overnight
We traded down to 1081 overnight but that number doesn't come up anywhere in my analysis, maybe I am off or if I am not 1076 is the next number below.
Anyone remember 1054 that was the magic number going up when I said we could have about 100 point left and surprisingly we stopped @ 1150.
Lets see what happens today.
Anyone remember 1054 that was the magic number going up when I said we could have about 100 point left and surprisingly we stopped @ 1150.
Lets see what happens today.
Pause day
Monday confirmed our pause day in the market as was expecting from the massive expansion last week. Today we look like we will start weaker even with the blow out earnings from AAPL. A note on AAPL they changed how they account for revenue so maybe this is not a great blow out as they are making it seem.
Monday, January 25, 2010
COF
Just saw the heavy selling in Capital One, geez. Said it watch the financials they led us out of the March 09 bottom, very important sector to monitor.
Other side of 10000
We will be on the other side of 10k soon, just don't be surprised. I guess this bounce was all she had in her, very surprising but not unexpected. Might go negative today
watch the banks and the other leaders out of the March lows.
watch the banks and the other leaders out of the March lows.
Bracketing
Bounce as expected from the oversold signals at end of day on friday. Bracketing the first hours range to see where they want to push us but technically I would not be surprised if we get a contraction day after two days of expansion.
Will Update
Will Update
Sunday, January 24, 2010
Treat- Charts
S&P close below 50MA is a game changer as stated last week. Here is a chart. We are still above the 200MA but that will break if we are in a larger wave 2 pattern in the bear market.
Treat-
Here is an extremely long entry on the blog for those who read it. I was during some research yesterday and compiling my evaluations when I got news of a death in the family. So instead of just breaking again I decided just to post my research work here on the blog.
Here it is:
What a pivotal trading week! The uptrend made its absolute high near tuesday's close at S&P futures 1150. Then in just three days it dropped over 5% to confirm a new downtrend. This was one of the fastest peak price to downtrend confirmation I have personally seen. The VIX spiked up from 18 to 28 in just two days. Economic reports for the week were sparse. The home builders index continued to bounce along the bottom. Housing starts fell, as did the Philly FED, and weekly jobless claims rose. On the positive side, the PPI was moderately positive and leading indicators edged up as well. For the week the SPX/DOW were -4.0%, and the NDX/NAZ were -3.7%. Asian markets were all lower -3.6%. European indices were all lower as well -2.8%. Commodity equity markets were all lower too -3.8%. Bonds were +0.50%, Crude was -4.9%, Gold -3.4% and the USD was higher +1.4%. The week ahead involves mostly housing reports, the FOMC meeting, and Q4 GDP.
The S&P is short term oversold and therefore technically we should be watching for a bounce to alleviate the pressure of three straight days of selling. The obvious play here would be to short the bounce when it happens. If this analysis is completely wrong then this should be a buying opportunity and watched for a reaction at the 50MA’s
LONG TERM: BEAR MARKET
In Dec 2009, I updated then of the massive convergence of technical/time relationships coming together in early 2010. All these relationships were projecting an uptrend high in January around SPX 1160 and possibly to 1178 off an extension. There were fibonacci relationships between Major wave C and Major wave A, and its internals, projecting a price high between SPX 1158 and 1162. We were also expecting the lower range of the longer term wave structure and the 1168 pivot to be reached. The 2:1 time relationship between the Major waves of Primary B equaled the 2:1 time relationship between the two Major waves of Primary A in January. The price levels of the Major waves at the beginning of the last bull market, fit the highs of the Major waves during this Primary wave B rally. And, while all this was setting up, negative divergences were starting to appear on the longer term charts. This type of convergence is quite rare.
Almost two years ago, we confirmed a long term downtrend: bear market. After anticipated that the bear market would unfold in three larger waves because all structure bear markets are three wave structures. Waves were being confirmed by the structures we tracked especially the decline from OCT 07 at SPX 1576 to Mar 09 at SPX 667. We labeled this 5-3-5 zigzag Primary wave A. Within days of the lows our projection showed the potential for a 50% bear market retracement rally near the SPX 1120 level. There were a few starts and stops along the way, and the rally took twice as long as expected. Nevertheless, the market rallied from Mar 09 at SPX 667 to Jan 10 at SPX 1150. The internals of each uptrend, however, were quite choppy and nothing like an organized impulsing bull market. This week the uptrend, Major C, from July 09 at SPX 869 to Jan 10 at SPX 1150 ended. Immediately the market started impulsing to the downside, albeit it was only three days of trading.
This new downtrend should be the first of the Major waves. As a general guideline, and certainly not to be traded on alone, the Primary wave C decline should look something like this: Major 1 (SPX 961), Major 2 (SPX 1061), Major 3 (SPX 768), Major 4 (SPX 848) and Major 5 (SPX 667). Remember, and this is important, each of the three downtrends need to unfold in five waves. In order for the bear market to resume they have to impulse with the major trend, which is down. The two uptrends should be corrective abc's.. The resumption of the bear market from SPX 1150 is not a certainty. At least not right now. This downtrend has only just begun. Despite the choppiness of the Mar 09-Jun 09 and the July09-Jan 10 uptrends, this market could shift into an even larger Primary B wave, or even a bull market, remember long term wave structures uptrends are often, (70% v 30%), associated with new bull markets. To get a better understanding of what is actually transforming in the market we must observe this downtrend quite carefully. As I have noted previously. If the downtrend impulses down in five waves then it is highly likely the bear market has resumed. If the downtrend appears corrective, a choppy abc pattern, then we are dealing with one of these two scenarios: an even larger B wave, or a bull market. The action in the market over the next several weeks should give a clear indication of what to expect over the next several months. Since this market has stayed within the parameters of a multi-year bear market ABC flat, we continue to favor that scenario.
MEDIUM TERM: DOWNTREND
The Major wave C uptrend from SPX 869 to SPX 1150 (281 points), was nearly equal to the Major wave A uptrend from SPX 667 to SPX 956 (289 points). This is quite interesting since Major wave C took six months to unfold, while Major A took only three months. The upside momentum of Primary wave B was certainly waning. At the completion of both uptrends there was a negative divergence on the weekly charts. It is also interesting to note that at the completion of every Major wave since Oct 07 there have been corresponding divergences. While Major wave A was relatively easy to count on a short term basis. Major wave C was quite complex and required two different views to get a clear picture, one posted on the SPX charts and the other on the DOW. This is sometimes necessary, expecially during extensions. Despite the complexity of the pattern the current labeling pattern remained on track. Intermediate wave C from SPX 992 to SPX 1150 (158 points), was nearly equal to Intermediate wave A from SPX 869 to SPX 1039 (170 points).
The three day decline from SPX 1150 into friday's SPX 1090 low was the biggest short term drop since Feb 09. In fact, the DOW wiped out two months of upside progress in just these three days. At the SPX 667 low in Mar 09 the SPX surged over 5% in just three days. This week it dropped over 5% in just three days.
SHORT TERM
Support for the SPX is at 1090, though I mentioned on my personal blog 1096 due to the Fibonacci relationship of the last impulse and then 1961, with resistance at 1107 and then 1133. Short term momentum was extremely oversold at friday's close. Since we are expecting this downtrend to be Major wave 1, of a five wave Primary wave C, we anticipate that it will unfold in five Intermediate waves. The first Intermediate wave is underway now. Therefore I have labeled the initial decline from SPX 1150 to SPX 1129 (Fibonacci, 21 points) as Minor wave 1 and the rally from SPX 1129 to SPX 1142 (Fibonacci; 13 points) as Minor wave 2. Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave 1 is still unfolding. Minor wave 3 could bottom at SPX 1087 (55 points). Considering how oversold the market was at friday's close this is quite possible. If the bottom falls out we may be looking at SPX 1053 (89 points). In either case, if Primary wave C is anything like Primary wave A, all the fourth wave rallies should be quite weak. It has been awfully quiet for many months with low volume and lowering volatility.
Here it is:
What a pivotal trading week! The uptrend made its absolute high near tuesday's close at S&P futures 1150. Then in just three days it dropped over 5% to confirm a new downtrend. This was one of the fastest peak price to downtrend confirmation I have personally seen. The VIX spiked up from 18 to 28 in just two days. Economic reports for the week were sparse. The home builders index continued to bounce along the bottom. Housing starts fell, as did the Philly FED, and weekly jobless claims rose. On the positive side, the PPI was moderately positive and leading indicators edged up as well. For the week the SPX/DOW were -4.0%, and the NDX/NAZ were -3.7%. Asian markets were all lower -3.6%. European indices were all lower as well -2.8%. Commodity equity markets were all lower too -3.8%. Bonds were +0.50%, Crude was -4.9%, Gold -3.4% and the USD was higher +1.4%. The week ahead involves mostly housing reports, the FOMC meeting, and Q4 GDP.
The S&P is short term oversold and therefore technically we should be watching for a bounce to alleviate the pressure of three straight days of selling. The obvious play here would be to short the bounce when it happens. If this analysis is completely wrong then this should be a buying opportunity and watched for a reaction at the 50MA’s
LONG TERM: BEAR MARKET
In Dec 2009, I updated then of the massive convergence of technical/time relationships coming together in early 2010. All these relationships were projecting an uptrend high in January around SPX 1160 and possibly to 1178 off an extension. There were fibonacci relationships between Major wave C and Major wave A, and its internals, projecting a price high between SPX 1158 and 1162. We were also expecting the lower range of the longer term wave structure and the 1168 pivot to be reached. The 2:1 time relationship between the Major waves of Primary B equaled the 2:1 time relationship between the two Major waves of Primary A in January. The price levels of the Major waves at the beginning of the last bull market, fit the highs of the Major waves during this Primary wave B rally. And, while all this was setting up, negative divergences were starting to appear on the longer term charts. This type of convergence is quite rare.
Almost two years ago, we confirmed a long term downtrend: bear market. After anticipated that the bear market would unfold in three larger waves because all structure bear markets are three wave structures. Waves were being confirmed by the structures we tracked especially the decline from OCT 07 at SPX 1576 to Mar 09 at SPX 667. We labeled this 5-3-5 zigzag Primary wave A. Within days of the lows our projection showed the potential for a 50% bear market retracement rally near the SPX 1120 level. There were a few starts and stops along the way, and the rally took twice as long as expected. Nevertheless, the market rallied from Mar 09 at SPX 667 to Jan 10 at SPX 1150. The internals of each uptrend, however, were quite choppy and nothing like an organized impulsing bull market. This week the uptrend, Major C, from July 09 at SPX 869 to Jan 10 at SPX 1150 ended. Immediately the market started impulsing to the downside, albeit it was only three days of trading.
This new downtrend should be the first of the Major waves. As a general guideline, and certainly not to be traded on alone, the Primary wave C decline should look something like this: Major 1 (SPX 961), Major 2 (SPX 1061), Major 3 (SPX 768), Major 4 (SPX 848) and Major 5 (SPX 667). Remember, and this is important, each of the three downtrends need to unfold in five waves. In order for the bear market to resume they have to impulse with the major trend, which is down. The two uptrends should be corrective abc's.. The resumption of the bear market from SPX 1150 is not a certainty. At least not right now. This downtrend has only just begun. Despite the choppiness of the Mar 09-Jun 09 and the July09-Jan 10 uptrends, this market could shift into an even larger Primary B wave, or even a bull market, remember long term wave structures uptrends are often, (70% v 30%), associated with new bull markets. To get a better understanding of what is actually transforming in the market we must observe this downtrend quite carefully. As I have noted previously. If the downtrend impulses down in five waves then it is highly likely the bear market has resumed. If the downtrend appears corrective, a choppy abc pattern, then we are dealing with one of these two scenarios: an even larger B wave, or a bull market. The action in the market over the next several weeks should give a clear indication of what to expect over the next several months. Since this market has stayed within the parameters of a multi-year bear market ABC flat, we continue to favor that scenario.
MEDIUM TERM: DOWNTREND
The Major wave C uptrend from SPX 869 to SPX 1150 (281 points), was nearly equal to the Major wave A uptrend from SPX 667 to SPX 956 (289 points). This is quite interesting since Major wave C took six months to unfold, while Major A took only three months. The upside momentum of Primary wave B was certainly waning. At the completion of both uptrends there was a negative divergence on the weekly charts. It is also interesting to note that at the completion of every Major wave since Oct 07 there have been corresponding divergences. While Major wave A was relatively easy to count on a short term basis. Major wave C was quite complex and required two different views to get a clear picture, one posted on the SPX charts and the other on the DOW. This is sometimes necessary, expecially during extensions. Despite the complexity of the pattern the current labeling pattern remained on track. Intermediate wave C from SPX 992 to SPX 1150 (158 points), was nearly equal to Intermediate wave A from SPX 869 to SPX 1039 (170 points).
The three day decline from SPX 1150 into friday's SPX 1090 low was the biggest short term drop since Feb 09. In fact, the DOW wiped out two months of upside progress in just these three days. At the SPX 667 low in Mar 09 the SPX surged over 5% in just three days. This week it dropped over 5% in just three days.
SHORT TERM
Support for the SPX is at 1090, though I mentioned on my personal blog 1096 due to the Fibonacci relationship of the last impulse and then 1961, with resistance at 1107 and then 1133. Short term momentum was extremely oversold at friday's close. Since we are expecting this downtrend to be Major wave 1, of a five wave Primary wave C, we anticipate that it will unfold in five Intermediate waves. The first Intermediate wave is underway now. Therefore I have labeled the initial decline from SPX 1150 to SPX 1129 (Fibonacci, 21 points) as Minor wave 1 and the rally from SPX 1129 to SPX 1142 (Fibonacci; 13 points) as Minor wave 2. Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave 1 is still unfolding. Minor wave 3 could bottom at SPX 1087 (55 points). Considering how oversold the market was at friday's close this is quite possible. If the bottom falls out we may be looking at SPX 1053 (89 points). In either case, if Primary wave C is anything like Primary wave A, all the fourth wave rallies should be quite weak. It has been awfully quiet for many months with low volume and lowering volatility.
Friday, January 22, 2010
BINGO- S&P BAC- below $15
Finally below $15 here. As I have said this one
1096 HIT!!!!!!
Got to bounce here even a little or this will be very ugly next week
1096 HIT!!!!!!
Got to bounce here even a little or this will be very ugly next week
Negative for the year
Now we are negative for the year and I just heard some talking heads on tv saying 1090 is important level for S&P. Man they reading the blog, they are so late :)
Ok for us today, closing out the week we NEED to close above the 50MA for the bulls not to show there weak hands. That's what is important, note we above the 200MA so the bulls are not shot in the head yet.
I will be watching the close very closely to see if they dress it up.
Ok for us today, closing out the week we NEED to close above the 50MA for the bulls not to show there weak hands. That's what is important, note we above the 200MA so the bulls are not shot in the head yet.
I will be watching the close very closely to see if they dress it up.
Drifting lower
Drifting lower here but I am waiting on the first hour to be in like yesterday to see what they want to do.
Got to watch this 1096 area though on the downside. Also the 50MA is around 1110 so a weekly close below this level would set us in a bearish bias shorter term. Bulls have to make a close above that 50MA for them to have a chance of a bounce next week.
Got to watch this 1096 area though on the downside. Also the 50MA is around 1110 so a weekly close below this level would set us in a bearish bias shorter term. Bulls have to make a close above that 50MA for them to have a chance of a bounce next week.
Early weakness
Early weakness and trading below yesterday's lows. Waiting out the first hour here to bracket the range.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
The Close
Do not be surprised is they flush us out at the end of day.
Internals are very weak here I don't know who would be buying into the close
Internals are very weak here I don't know who would be buying into the close
BAC
I am still watching the $15 level on BAC. I still do believe that $15 is CRITICAL for this stock
1110
Anyone see where we stopped on the downside 1110!!!!!
Man I guess I am not too rusty after the holidays. This morning I pointed out when we were -88 on the Dow that the first hour will likely mark the direction of the markets and that's the reason I said we should go lower. Wow that was dead on we are now -200 and we really look like we are forming a bear flag on the hourly charts.
I will run some more points of control tonight to see where we can go but a break of 1110 would not be good for the bulls. Next point I have here on a quick look is 1098
Man I guess I am not too rusty after the holidays. This morning I pointed out when we were -88 on the Dow that the first hour will likely mark the direction of the markets and that's the reason I said we should go lower. Wow that was dead on we are now -200 and we really look like we are forming a bear flag on the hourly charts.
I will run some more points of control tonight to see where we can go but a break of 1110 would not be good for the bulls. Next point I have here on a quick look is 1098
DOW
Not holding yesterday's lows. Remember first hour is here and most traders will trade off the first hour trend, so might go lower here
This level
Remember this is the level we started the first trading day of the year. Essentially we have made ZERO progress in the markets for 2010, that's something to watch carefully.
Thursday
With the big banks all reporting already lets us see if the technology firms will blow out and send us higher. I am just following the trend of the last 3 quarters but it is anyone guess. Folks we have started the year in the same narrow range as the end of last year so technicals it is difficult to ascertain where we will go next.
I won't guess but I can surely say with confidence their is a 5 wave pattern completed on the upside since the March 2009 lows.
We will see soon enough.
Notice what was yesterday's lows 1125, dead on!
Next level lower if we don't break the highs would be 1110.
I won't guess but I can surely say with confidence their is a 5 wave pattern completed on the upside since the March 2009 lows.
We will see soon enough.
Notice what was yesterday's lows 1125, dead on!
Next level lower if we don't break the highs would be 1110.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Low of day
Interesting we stopped at the 1125 number and bounced. Nothing like technicals. That area could provide a significant bounce possibly to the 1132 area.
Opps
1130 broken- 1125 was the last area on this upside that had difficulty breaking through. I guess 1110 is ultimately on the way.
Action
Action is very interesting here - A lot of distribution going on, also remember we have around one week left in the month and if I can recall we started the year around 10580 area. Why am I mentioning this? well because most traders will say January performance is usually a barometer of how the year will go.
1130
Got to hold 1130 as said before- Critical level that must be held.
Below we have 1110 not that we will hit that today but 1130 should provide a puase or some support
Below we have 1110 not that we will hit that today but 1130 should provide a puase or some support
What I am seeing
Ok after taking a day of rest to recover from my trip I looked at some charts last night.
Even with the Bank of America this morning I still think we can go to that 1178 are, which was an area I spelled out awhile back. Currently 1134 must hold and most importantly 1130 or we will more than likely test those averages down by 1108/1110 area.
We will see soon enough but it is very interesting trading here but also mish match as we are up one day and down the next and volume is still light.
Lets see what develops here.
Even with the Bank of America this morning I still think we can go to that 1178 are, which was an area I spelled out awhile back. Currently 1134 must hold and most importantly 1130 or we will more than likely test those averages down by 1108/1110 area.
We will see soon enough but it is very interesting trading here but also mish match as we are up one day and down the next and volume is still light.
Lets see what develops here.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Thoughts
Since I am back I think it is time for a review of the broader market indices and possible implications for traders and investors: As usual my analysis may prove controversial, but I tend to make big picture calls at critical junctures. This analysis is more bearish and I realize, that many have gone from the bearish camp. I simply look at all the evidence, and instead of burying my head in the sand, I take it all in and plan accordingly. Being a perma-bull or perma-bear is a quick way to under-perform the markets. I try to be nimble and trade/invest accordingly. The next few weeks/months are likely to be volatile,since we have been trading in a narrow range for a couple of months now. I don't believe the market has peaked yet for this phase but I do think we are more likely in the 8-9th inning of the upside here.
It appears we have the qualifications to have a potential top in since the March 2009 lows. This is due to the rebound of the Dow to above my 10500 target I spoke about in early 2009. We have had a 61% Fibonacci retracement of the 2007 highs to the 2009 lows. In addition, we have had about a 61% time period duration with an 11 month rally which followed a 17 odd month decline. Based on all my work: This means we have technically fulfilled intermediate objectives for a top.
The caveat in my analysis, is the equity markets could still work their way higher. Just because we have met certain typical patterns in Time and Price projections, elliott wave patterns and the like, doesn't mean we have peaked for sure. The markets could continue in a higher % retracement of the 17 month decline and the indices work their way higher. What I am pointing out today is that the requirements for a top have been met, and we need to be on guard.
One important thing I also watch is the bullish sentiment of investors, which is presently running at extreme highs.We have the VIX running at extreme lows and the last time we had this many bulls in surveys vs bears was July 2007 and we all knew what happened then.
The markets are at a critical juncture here and we can move either way but I am being extremely cautious. It does not mean you can't play equities on the long side but a 5 way Elliott wave structure is a very compelling case for a change in direction.
It appears we have the qualifications to have a potential top in since the March 2009 lows. This is due to the rebound of the Dow to above my 10500 target I spoke about in early 2009. We have had a 61% Fibonacci retracement of the 2007 highs to the 2009 lows. In addition, we have had about a 61% time period duration with an 11 month rally which followed a 17 odd month decline. Based on all my work: This means we have technically fulfilled intermediate objectives for a top.
The caveat in my analysis, is the equity markets could still work their way higher. Just because we have met certain typical patterns in Time and Price projections, elliott wave patterns and the like, doesn't mean we have peaked for sure. The markets could continue in a higher % retracement of the 17 month decline and the indices work their way higher. What I am pointing out today is that the requirements for a top have been met, and we need to be on guard.
One important thing I also watch is the bullish sentiment of investors, which is presently running at extreme highs.We have the VIX running at extreme lows and the last time we had this many bulls in surveys vs bears was July 2007 and we all knew what happened then.
The markets are at a critical juncture here and we can move either way but I am being extremely cautious. It does not mean you can't play equities on the long side but a 5 way Elliott wave structure is a very compelling case for a change in direction.
Monday, January 18, 2010
Back
Back from my trip but extremely tired. I didn't even have time to update the blog with my thoughts last week as I was actually away from the markets itself. I guess I will see what happens tomorrow and get a feel of whats going on now.
I would like to also say the Haitian earthquake was truly sad and I am glad that the world is still kind in its heart to help those who are in need. It could have happened anywhere but Haiti being one of the poorest countries in the World will have an extremely hard time recovering if they ever do from this natural disaster. Nature is powerful more than any nation or man and that's why we should respect the earth and universe we live in.
On a note on the market I saw we lost 100 points on Friday but I don't believe this is anything in the way of a turn around to the downside yet. Watch the 1114 number on the S&P as there is some support there.
I would like to also say the Haitian earthquake was truly sad and I am glad that the world is still kind in its heart to help those who are in need. It could have happened anywhere but Haiti being one of the poorest countries in the World will have an extremely hard time recovering if they ever do from this natural disaster. Nature is powerful more than any nation or man and that's why we should respect the earth and universe we live in.
On a note on the market I saw we lost 100 points on Friday but I don't believe this is anything in the way of a turn around to the downside yet. Watch the 1114 number on the S&P as there is some support there.
Thursday, January 7, 2010
Boring
One thing to note the market is still showing no signs of volatility to trade. Although a few stocks are performing the indexes themselves are doing nothing. Seem many are sitting on the sidelines again, remember Goldman said December trading was terrible volume wise.
Target
Just popping in before I travel later today. Target on this head and shoulder pattern on the S&P is 1124. Keep an eye on that number as it should be target and bounce area if bulls are not weak here. I also got a minor reflect number @ 1127.
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Out
Heading to the Big Apple tomorrow so will be busy today for my trip. I will not have much time to post next week but I will be back on the 19th 100%. I might pop in and out.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
Thanks Meredith
Meredith Whitney downgraded Goldman Sachs estimates for the coming quarter based on her numbers of a very slow trading December. I feel alot more confident on my BAC short though it is a long term call.
Thanks Meredith
Thanks Meredith
Oil
Oil continues to gauge itself against the US dollar. Although many out there think Oil should be lower technically as long as it is pegged against the US dollar I have serious doubt Oil will go down substantially.
Very quiet open
I wonder if the storm is taking its effect or are we continuing the dull drums left off from 2009. It will be interesting month I can at least tell you that.
Monday, January 4, 2010
Life is full to bull crappers
You know life is full of bull crappers, people with a lot air in their head and just talk like they know a lot. I am no psychologist but I believe people who are like that are insecure so they try and portray themselves as knowledgeable or important.
Humility is a great sign of a wise man because a wise man / woman will listen to anyone because he knows knowledge is infinite and therefore we can learn from anyone. Arrogance is a sign of a idiot, so listen and do less talking, more observation, less trying to be a boss and more of a sponge trying to absorb all nature and the universe has to off us.
MARKETJEDI
Humility is a great sign of a wise man because a wise man / woman will listen to anyone because he knows knowledge is infinite and therefore we can learn from anyone. Arrogance is a sign of a idiot, so listen and do less talking, more observation, less trying to be a boss and more of a sponge trying to absorb all nature and the universe has to off us.
MARKETJEDI
Divergences
Some negative divergences here but I would not weigh heavy on that since as said before the first few days of a quarter are usually heavily skewed on the buy side because of fund activity.
I am initiating a small short here on BAC in the mid $15 area. I think this one will see $11 in short order. Holding this one, no a quick trade.
I am initiating a small short here on BAC in the mid $15 area. I think this one will see $11 in short order. Holding this one, no a quick trade.
Early strength
Early strength to ring in the first trading day of the year. Oil is screaming higher and I continue to believe Oil will be bullish for years to come, just think about it we are in a massive slow down and Oil has been in a bullish consolidation though off it parabolic year of 2008.
Let's see what the first week brings alot of people like to put their hats on the first week performance as a barometer of what the year will bring. I don't have those views as I believe the first days of any quarter is usually heavy loaded because of funds putting money to work.
Let's see what the first week brings alot of people like to put their hats on the first week performance as a barometer of what the year will bring. I don't have those views as I believe the first days of any quarter is usually heavy loaded because of funds putting money to work.
Sunday, January 3, 2010
I am back
I am back but just for a couple of days as I have to go to the Big apple later this week for about 10 days. I had a very enjoyable holidays with family and friends visiting from out of town but now I am dead tired. On top of that I know my 10 days in New York will add to my fatigue so I might need a holiday after that:). I will try to post during my travels but it will be difficult so don't expect anything much.
So for New Years gift my home builder gave me a gift that I didn't want! Another $30k drop in the base price of my home model :) well not unexpected but the amount was! I wonder how many people will begin to think they have no equity and it is better just to walk away. I am being very serious here, that might be the best move though some people might bash those who do but as I always say, would you do a 10k repair on your car if it is only worth 2k? At the beginning of last year I spoke about the main focus for years to come would be the lost of net worth for most americans as I didn't see an end to the weakness in the housing market or a meaningful reversal in the equity markets and I continue to see more of the same.
What will 2010 bring?? Hopefully some volume so we can get a nice move to play like in 2008 but mostly my instincts tell me that some time between now and May we will find a meaningful top in this rebound and head south again. As I said long ago I didn't believe we would test that March low again for 2009 and I think that goes for 2010. I believe 2011 will be the time wave correction that will send us much lower than the March 2009 lows but we will see soon enough.
Remember we could end up consolidating for a long time just like what happened in the last 4 months of 2009, low volume and just range bound, this time range bound could last for months to years and ultimately kill the mind set of buy and hold completely and dry up investors appetite for equities and lead to the last leg of a secular bear market. At that point I believe that will be the buy of the ages.
Lets see how the January effect plays out but I would not place any bets on that again! just remember what happened last year. Folks all I have to say is that I play whatever I see in front of me but I assure you we wont be higher 5 years from now so be very careful investing in equities for the long haul.
Marketjedi
So for New Years gift my home builder gave me a gift that I didn't want! Another $30k drop in the base price of my home model :) well not unexpected but the amount was! I wonder how many people will begin to think they have no equity and it is better just to walk away. I am being very serious here, that might be the best move though some people might bash those who do but as I always say, would you do a 10k repair on your car if it is only worth 2k? At the beginning of last year I spoke about the main focus for years to come would be the lost of net worth for most americans as I didn't see an end to the weakness in the housing market or a meaningful reversal in the equity markets and I continue to see more of the same.
What will 2010 bring?? Hopefully some volume so we can get a nice move to play like in 2008 but mostly my instincts tell me that some time between now and May we will find a meaningful top in this rebound and head south again. As I said long ago I didn't believe we would test that March low again for 2009 and I think that goes for 2010. I believe 2011 will be the time wave correction that will send us much lower than the March 2009 lows but we will see soon enough.
Remember we could end up consolidating for a long time just like what happened in the last 4 months of 2009, low volume and just range bound, this time range bound could last for months to years and ultimately kill the mind set of buy and hold completely and dry up investors appetite for equities and lead to the last leg of a secular bear market. At that point I believe that will be the buy of the ages.
Lets see how the January effect plays out but I would not place any bets on that again! just remember what happened last year. Folks all I have to say is that I play whatever I see in front of me but I assure you we wont be higher 5 years from now so be very careful investing in equities for the long haul.
Marketjedi
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