Sunday, June 14, 2009

Short term

Support for the SPX remains at 935 and then 912, with resistance at 961 and then 990. Short term momentum was slightly oversold at friday's SPX 936 low and rising at the close. The support and resistance pivots just noted, align exactly with the short term wave structure. The SPX challenged the 961 pivot on thursday and was immediately turned away. On friday the pullback bottomed at the 935 pivot and then rallied into the close. Should the SPX break through the 961 pivot it should be on its way to the 50% rally level at 1001. When the SPX drops below the 935 pivot, downside momentum should take hold. Then when the SPX drops below the 912 pivot, it will be a good signal that the Mar-Jun uptrend may have ended. With a 40% gain in hand, and a potential 5% further gain ahead, the risk/reward ratio favors a cautious position