For a long term play bought yesterday SKF is SMOKING!!!!!!!!!
right now it is +$9. I am holding this along with AMZN short which is up $4.20
Said it here any times this market is so dead it just doesn't know it yet. I expect SKF to goto 130 in a rush if more bad news come out on the munibonds. Lets see how the close settle but presently we are down 295 points on the DOW and the S&P at its lows of 1333
Friday, February 29, 2008
TRADE CALL Updates
SKF up nicely, I am holding this though it is +$5 in one day. I think it goes higher.
AMZN short is also nice +$2.50 on it from yesterday but I am also going to hold it.
Lets see what today brings.
AMZN short is also nice +$2.50 on it from yesterday but I am also going to hold it.
Lets see what today brings.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Friday
For Friday I am looking for a low volume day to finish off the week. Today I was very disappointed in the bull action and I will be writing a thesis this weekend as to where I think the markets will go in coming months.
Most of you know I think the markets are in trouble but it just doesn't know it yet. Commodities seem to be on fire and how much higher will we they go is anyone's guess. Gold definitely seem like $1000 is the target and the EURO$ seem like it wants 1.57.
I will be giving out a few stocks in the next week which I think will have a hard time in the next 12 months. The first one I will mention now is GS (Goldman Sachs), it has been the saving grace of the brokers but I think its time is near and I think there is a good shot for GS to trade below $100 in the next 12 months.
Watch out Sunday night for an in depth analysis and some stocks which I believe will be 1/2 their present value in a year.
MARKETJEDI
Most of you know I think the markets are in trouble but it just doesn't know it yet. Commodities seem to be on fire and how much higher will we they go is anyone's guess. Gold definitely seem like $1000 is the target and the EURO$ seem like it wants 1.57.
I will be giving out a few stocks in the next week which I think will have a hard time in the next 12 months. The first one I will mention now is GS (Goldman Sachs), it has been the saving grace of the brokers but I think its time is near and I think there is a good shot for GS to trade below $100 in the next 12 months.
Watch out Sunday night for an in depth analysis and some stocks which I believe will be 1/2 their present value in a year.
MARKETJEDI
TRADE CALLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Make three calls here.!!!!!!!!!!!!!
These are longer term plays
Long SKF @109.90 here - This i am keeping as a long term swing (months)
Short AMZN @ 68.60 here. This i am also keeping but I have a mental stop and might add to the position.
Short SOV @11.25. This is also longer term play.
I will update on the weekend
These are longer term plays
Long SKF @109.90 here - This i am keeping as a long term swing (months)
Short AMZN @ 68.60 here. This i am also keeping but I have a mental stop and might add to the position.
Short SOV @11.25. This is also longer term play.
I will update on the weekend
Thursday
Employment number came in 8:30 on the rise. Proof that recession is close if not here already. All numbers now point to a downturn in the economy and with commodity prices rising we might just be at the beginning of it.
On to the technicals: It was a narrow range day for the markets yesterday, from the opening to the close anyway, as we did see some whippy moves intraday, but at the end of the session we closed near the unchanged level. Wednesday’s doji day in fact formed an NR 7 bar, the narrowest range of the last 7 days and often suggests a big move the next day, so we could have that to look forward to today.
If a big move is coming we need to be prepared to go either direction, although my short term bias is now to the upside, so that would be ideal trend for Thursday. Either way, I probably look to get aggressive on the first sign of a trend either way. If we coil early and breakout let’s look for momentum trades. If no discernible patterns present themselves early, then we can look for a break of the first hour’s range for a hint to the possible trend of the day. If the NR7 scenario plays out, we could have a nice trend day for Thursday.
On to the technicals: It was a narrow range day for the markets yesterday, from the opening to the close anyway, as we did see some whippy moves intraday, but at the end of the session we closed near the unchanged level. Wednesday’s doji day in fact formed an NR 7 bar, the narrowest range of the last 7 days and often suggests a big move the next day, so we could have that to look forward to today.
If a big move is coming we need to be prepared to go either direction, although my short term bias is now to the upside, so that would be ideal trend for Thursday. Either way, I probably look to get aggressive on the first sign of a trend either way. If we coil early and breakout let’s look for momentum trades. If no discernible patterns present themselves early, then we can look for a break of the first hour’s range for a hint to the possible trend of the day. If the NR7 scenario plays out, we could have a nice trend day for Thursday.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
WOW
That's why you need to be actively trading your positions.
FNM is now up $3 on FED talk about raising the limit of Federal back home loans amounts.
Great call on getting out with +$3 profit.
The beauty of being a trader
FNM is now up $3 on FED talk about raising the limit of Federal back home loans amounts.
Great call on getting out with +$3 profit.
The beauty of being a trader
WOW-:FNM
Futures are now down pre market due to Fannie Mae (FNM) disappointing earnings. The mortgage giant losses amounted to 3.6 BILLION for the quarter.
HMM, thanks goodness we short FNM :)
currently trading $25.10, over $4.50 profit since the trade call on February 20.
HMM, thanks goodness we short FNM :)
currently trading $25.10, over $4.50 profit since the trade call on February 20.
TRADE CALL: FNM
FNM reports today, plan was to take 1/2 off the short yesterday and ride the next 1/2.
Stock is down another $1.10 pre market. Still think this stock goes much lower, but will manage the 1/2 share currently shorted.
Can we say another WINNER!!!!!!!
Stock is down another $1.10 pre market. Still think this stock goes much lower, but will manage the 1/2 share currently shorted.
Can we say another WINNER!!!!!!!
Excellent day yesterday
Excellent day yesterday with almost 40 points in profits. I would love to make 40 points ever month !!! just to show the magnitude of the day. Well for wednesday what do I think will play out?
Oil is now firmly over $100 and has been noted (blog entry)the third wave push towards $100 should stick. The danger for the economy is that $100 is no longer resistance but now support and inflation pressures should start to increase at a dramatic rate due to the increase prices of other commodities.
The FED would definitely have their hands tied with rates if inflation raises it ugly head. Higher rates and higher commodity prices will definitely not be good for the equity markets.
Technicals: The S&P should make a run @1396. I will analyze how we act around that number as we approach it, but a breach higher of it should watch for 1409 then 1425 which would ultimately be the heaviest resistance on the short time frame.
On the downside we have 1375 and then 1364 to watch. For today I am hoping for a gap down to absorb the movement yesterday and trend higher into the upward resistance numbers.
Oil is now firmly over $100 and has been noted (blog entry)the third wave push towards $100 should stick. The danger for the economy is that $100 is no longer resistance but now support and inflation pressures should start to increase at a dramatic rate due to the increase prices of other commodities.
The FED would definitely have their hands tied with rates if inflation raises it ugly head. Higher rates and higher commodity prices will definitely not be good for the equity markets.
Technicals: The S&P should make a run @1396. I will analyze how we act around that number as we approach it, but a breach higher of it should watch for 1409 then 1425 which would ultimately be the heaviest resistance on the short time frame.
On the downside we have 1375 and then 1364 to watch. For today I am hoping for a gap down to absorb the movement yesterday and trend higher into the upward resistance numbers.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
TRADE UPDATE :FNM
Although I never hold trades over earnings I will have an exception here.
FNM short from 29.60 is now 27.00, I am taking 1/2off here as they have earnings tomorrow pre market.
If and that's a big IF they say something about bottoming of the mortgage markets I dont want to give aways all profits here. I still think this stock will be a sub $20 before it is all over.
Taking 1/2 off here +$2.60
Another WINNER!!!
FNM short from 29.60 is now 27.00, I am taking 1/2off here as they have earnings tomorrow pre market.
If and that's a big IF they say something about bottoming of the mortgage markets I dont want to give aways all profits here. I still think this stock will be a sub $20 before it is all over.
Taking 1/2 off here +$2.60
Another WINNER!!!
Updates
Well the rail are definitely en fuego here-
CNI +1.45
BNI +2
UNP $2.60
How do you like those calls and opps GOOGLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Apple took a 50 cent lost but wow look at it go now would have been +$2 but hey that's just how it goes.
Some very nice plays are setting up here so STAY TUNED
CNI +1.45
BNI +2
UNP $2.60
How do you like those calls and opps GOOGLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Apple took a 50 cent lost but wow look at it go now would have been +$2 but hey that's just how it goes.
Some very nice plays are setting up here so STAY TUNED
RAILS break out
Rails are breaking out higher as per mentioned last night
CNI +$1
BNI+ $1
UNP +$2.30
They should be in play this quarter.
CNI +$1
BNI+ $1
UNP +$2.30
They should be in play this quarter.
AAPL update
stopped out -2. should be just a $1 lost with 1/2 share as called.
GOOG down $34 sweet call
GOOG down $34 sweet call
AAPL update
moved stops back to 116 on the weak opening. That should make the risk $1 since it was played 1/2 size.
CRAZY RIGHT!!!!!!
If you not reading this blog you are doing yourself a huge injustice financially.
Last week the blog made an awesome call on FNM short in the following two days there were multiple downgrades of the stock.
Once again yesterday I predicted GOOGLE'S death. This morning analysts have downgraded the mighty GOOGLE and now it is down $18 pre market.
READ AND PROFIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Last week the blog made an awesome call on FNM short in the following two days there were multiple downgrades of the stock.
Once again yesterday I predicted GOOGLE'S death. This morning analysts have downgraded the mighty GOOGLE and now it is down $18 pre market.
READ AND PROFIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Monday, February 25, 2008
Tuesday's Plan
Presently we are overbought on the short term time frame thus a pull back is in the cards. Based on the waves on the charts We have resistance at 1378, 1390, then 1425. I would love to see us break the of the first level 1378 as 1396 would definitely be in play.
As we move into that 1390 level I will be looking at some shorts to leg into. On the downside look for 1363 as initial support.
Gold looks like it can pullback to the 20 EMA and OIL looks like it will bust through the 100 level this time and will more likely stick.
One sector to watch is the Rails, yes the Railroads stocks. The Railroad sector is the top performing sector for 2008 so far, look for CNI, BNI (Bull flag formation, could trade to $94, trading at $89 now) and UNP.
Have a good day tomorrow
As we move into that 1390 level I will be looking at some shorts to leg into. On the downside look for 1363 as initial support.
Gold looks like it can pullback to the 20 EMA and OIL looks like it will bust through the 100 level this time and will more likely stick.
One sector to watch is the Rails, yes the Railroads stocks. The Railroad sector is the top performing sector for 2008 so far, look for CNI, BNI (Bull flag formation, could trade to $94, trading at $89 now) and UNP.
Have a good day tomorrow
Take Note:GOOG prediction
The market is rallying 180+ points and GOOG is down $20. This is major divergence as GOOG, APPL, BIDU have been the Nasdaq high flyers. What does this mean? well I firmly believe GOOG will be closer to 375 sometime this year and maybe if we get ultra weak closer to $350. These divergence must be watched as the Nasdaq no matter what the talking heads claim leads the market. Without Tech and Financials we can't go higher so the tech heavy weights need to head higher for this rally to hold.
GOOG- Sub $375 prediction before years end
GOOG- Sub $375 prediction before years end
AAPL trade
AAPL trade now +$1.50 but still think it will go higher this week. It is trading relatively weak but due for a bounce.
Will raise the stop to 117 here. Risking only 50 cents, since the trade was 1/2 shares.
Will raise the stop to 117 here. Risking only 50 cents, since the trade was 1/2 shares.
Spike in Market
We are getting a spike here in the market because of the news coming out of AMBAC coming of credit watch. We will see if his is the bounce we need to get the bulls going or we fade the move. We got a new high on the 2:30 transition time.
Update
Market seem to be working as planned per last night update. Early weakness was bought by the bulls and I think it should holdup this week.
Sunday, February 24, 2008
Last week of February
Not a stellar month in the markets more of a trading range with the bears taking a much firmer stand. This week based on Fridays action if I were a betting person I would have to be on the bulls side. I do see a number of bull flags forming on some charts and also double bottoms which lead me to this conclusion.
I am waiting till pre market tomorrow to make my call on a stock which I think has some upside from here. Since it is an expensive stock I will be looking to play the options if they are reasonably priced.
If the bulls make a stand here this week we might see a significant more since we have been in a tight trading range with extremely low ADX readings.
Good Luck this week
I am waiting till pre market tomorrow to make my call on a stock which I think has some upside from here. Since it is an expensive stock I will be looking to play the options if they are reasonably priced.
If the bulls make a stand here this week we might see a significant more since we have been in a tight trading range with extremely low ADX readings.
Good Luck this week
Friday, February 22, 2008
AWESOME
GWW was awesome
INFY was awesome
OIH puts purchased yesterday @8.75 now 11.70 went as high as 12.85. I am holding for a double.
FNM awesome indeed short 29.70 now 27.30.
Rocking !
INFY was awesome
OIH puts purchased yesterday @8.75 now 11.70 went as high as 12.85. I am holding for a double.
FNM awesome indeed short 29.70 now 27.30.
Rocking !
FNM- downgraded!!!
Well this is a good morning for FNM trade. Merrill Lynch downgraded FNM to sell saying FNM doesn't fully represent the effect of weakness in the mortgage markets.
Hmm analyst over Merrill must be reading the blog:):)
Hmm analyst over Merrill must be reading the blog:):)
Thursday, February 21, 2008
TRADE -UPDATES
Just to update positions holding
FNM short @ 29.60 now 29
INFY short @ 42.60 now 41.50
GWW short @ 77.40 now 74.70
OIH 180 puts @ 8.75 now 10.80
FNM short @ 29.60 now 29
INFY short @ 42.60 now 41.50
GWW short @ 77.40 now 74.70
OIH 180 puts @ 8.75 now 10.80
wow 23% in a day
OIH puts up 23% since 10am today. I am holding these I think it is worth a double at least..
Thursday's Plan
Yesterday was yet another absorption day for the markets as a big gap down at the open quickly faded and filled the gap. The buying pressure picked up through the afternoon, but despite the strong buying pressure we have yet to breakout either way on the daily market charts. Nevertheless, it’s another notch for the bulls as we keep score in the battle between bulls and bears. We can still go either way, however, and I am still leaning to an eventual downside break despite the fact we seem to be in no rush to do so. The strength of the preceding push down to recent lows just seems to be too strong to me to ignore but it doesn’t mean we won’t see another leg higher first.
As far as Thursday goes, I would look to continue the recent trend of gap fade if we open higher or lower today. If the gap is narrow, I might look to fade any momentum that exerts itself. Other than that we will have to see how the day unfolds and see if we can get any reconciliation on the daily charts.
As far as Thursday goes, I would look to continue the recent trend of gap fade if we open higher or lower today. If the gap is narrow, I might look to fade any momentum that exerts itself. Other than that we will have to see how the day unfolds and see if we can get any reconciliation on the daily charts.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
nice move
Gap down was definitely a charm and as noted earlier I did expect higher prices. Now what?
Hopefully we push pass this 1360 area on the S&P and head towards the ABC resistance of 1408 and maybe higher to 1429. 1429 would be great as it would set up a nice spot to step into some shorts.
The Dow needs to get in gear and close above 12400 today, so the bull will have confidence to push us to the 12800 area. 12800-13000 area will provide major resistance and I will be looking at the brokers at that point for some shorts.
Hopefully we get our push to these points because plays off these numbers will be very profitable.
Hopefully we push pass this 1360 area on the S&P and head towards the ABC resistance of 1408 and maybe higher to 1429. 1429 would be great as it would set up a nice spot to step into some shorts.
The Dow needs to get in gear and close above 12400 today, so the bull will have confidence to push us to the 12800 area. 12800-13000 area will provide major resistance and I will be looking at the brokers at that point for some shorts.
Hopefully we get our push to these points because plays off these numbers will be very profitable.
Mid Day action
As traders it is good to have a plan. The plan this morning was to buy the gap down and it worked like a charm, as of now we seem to be in limbo as we await the FED minutes. So lets stay nibble here. I think they still want us higher today
GRIM REAPER
Well folks, saying this blog has been on fire since the start of the year would be an understatement indeed. Tuesday played out exactly how I thought it would but was rather surprised that we pullback so deeply. We basically had a 1% gap up which is huge in the different indexes and we totally sold off, WOW. Oil at $100 is surely not helping but also additional news of more credit problems seem to be filtering out again. I have said it many times here since the New Year, there is no way we are at a bottom.
For Wednesday I hope we get a deep enough sell off to buy I personally dont think the bulls are ready to give up totally but that time is near my friends. If we do gap down and selling increases and we don't reverse the gap then my friends I think we will test the recent lows before trying to form a bottom.
I think the brokers and banks in this environment should not be bought, they should be shorted as I think housing will more than likely get worse. GS and LEH are my two top shorts in the brokers with BAC and FNM being my shorts on the mortgage side. Watch for BIDU which I recommended last week for a long play for the week that got over $50+ profit for some downside from here. I think it will dip below $200 within 6 months. FSLR also will be below $150 in the next 12 months too.
I am a bear totally at this point because I think we will have the worst year in the markets in years. I do believe we will get a substantial rally soon but it will set up the easiest short opportunity in years as we head toward 10000 on the DOW and sub 1000 on the S&P, we will see soon enough.
For Wednesday I hope we get a deep enough sell off to buy I personally dont think the bulls are ready to give up totally but that time is near my friends. If we do gap down and selling increases and we don't reverse the gap then my friends I think we will test the recent lows before trying to form a bottom.
I think the brokers and banks in this environment should not be bought, they should be shorted as I think housing will more than likely get worse. GS and LEH are my two top shorts in the brokers with BAC and FNM being my shorts on the mortgage side. Watch for BIDU which I recommended last week for a long play for the week that got over $50+ profit for some downside from here. I think it will dip below $200 within 6 months. FSLR also will be below $150 in the next 12 months too.
I am a bear totally at this point because I think we will have the worst year in the markets in years. I do believe we will get a substantial rally soon but it will set up the easiest short opportunity in years as we head toward 10000 on the DOW and sub 1000 on the S&P, we will see soon enough.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
OIL $100 again
Well here we go again OIL is @$99.60. What happened to the $75 we were suppose to see well I told you longer term you have to be a OIL bull as it is getting harder and harder to get crude out of the ground. Think about it! globally the world is in a peaceful situation and crude is flowing freely what would happen if we really get a war out of the Soviets, Iran, North Korea or a matter of fact whoever, Oil would be $150 in a jiffy. I personally have been planning for gas to be $5 at the pump so some time now maybe it will be sooner than later
New Plays
I still think we will be in a range in the DOW for awhile with the upside limited in the 12800-13000 area and on the lower side 11600-11800 area. What my senses and technicals tell me is that we should bounce from here. I would more than likely like to see this scenario as it would set up some better reward shorts on a push up to resistance. Currently making a list of stock which I believe will be great contenders on the next push to resistance as short candidates.
For now look for resistance on the S&P at 1408 then 1429.
For now look for resistance on the S&P at 1408 then 1429.
Tuesday Feb 19th
Friday was a typical options expiration day as we were locked in a narrow range throughout the day. Stock prices did gap down and although a quick rally challenged the highs of the day early in the morn, rejection occurred there and we settled back to the lows. Again prices couldn’t break out either way and we closed practically unchanged.
With that behind us we could be set to continue lower via last week’s bear flag breaks. I might look at any rally as a good shorting opportunity providing reversals patterns set up. If we gap up big Tuesday at the open, I might get aggressive on fade setups. If we hold on and rally in the morning, I might look for a pull-back in the afternoon.
If we do close strong today we could be looking at a possible basing for a bottom, but I think a more likely scenario is that upside is capped and we break lower soon.
Good luck.
With that behind us we could be set to continue lower via last week’s bear flag breaks. I might look at any rally as a good shorting opportunity providing reversals patterns set up. If we gap up big Tuesday at the open, I might get aggressive on fade setups. If we hold on and rally in the morning, I might look for a pull-back in the afternoon.
If we do close strong today we could be looking at a possible basing for a bottom, but I think a more likely scenario is that upside is capped and we break lower soon.
Good luck.
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Minor Resistance
Right here is minor resistance and although I think we get throuhg it for more upside I would be taking some profits from the monster moves in DIA, FSLR and BIDU which was noted sunday. I am almost in my setup for some shorts and will soon be positioning myself more than likely after option expiration tomorrow.
Paulson and Bernanke both talking at 10:00 so be careful
Thursday's plan
The bulls seemed to have returned to the markets at least temporarily as Wednesday posted our third straight session of gains, albeit small gains. Wednesday’s day got catapulted by a decent round of earnings and a gap up at the opening bell. After a quick gap fade move, the markets rallied for the rest of the day and closed at the highs.
Now for the bad news. The recent push up still resembles bear-flag like consolidations, so I would still be prepared for a move lower shortly and a possible test of the January lows. In fact, I might look for some weakness today . A gap up would be an inviting fade opportunity or an early rally could spark an afternoon reversal move, so watch for those setups.
Now for the bad news. The recent push up still resembles bear-flag like consolidations, so I would still be prepared for a move lower shortly and a possible test of the January lows. In fact, I might look for some weakness today . A gap up would be an inviting fade opportunity or an early rally could spark an afternoon reversal move, so watch for those setups.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Can we say BIDU!!!
BIDU IS UP $30 after hours on beating earnings. Wasn't that an awesome play from sunday's call on it- almost $70 gain in 4 days totally awesome.
Don't miss out on reading your Blog!!!!
Don't miss out on reading your Blog!!!!
New HIghs
New Highs for the day. Extremely nice move with Nasdaq showing relative strength. Whether it is the signing of the stimulus package or just option expiration this move seem to have a little energy in it.
Nice move
Well seem to have hit it on the head. Market getting it bounce this week. The DOW is up 138 for the day with some of the financials and techs showing relative strength. BIDU is up beautiful off the recommendation Sunday. We can still more higher in my opinion and I am looking for such a move. Lets see how far we go.
When we hit some resistance I will be playing the QID's just as a heads up.
When we hit some resistance I will be playing the QID's just as a heads up.
Wednesday
More upside should be in the cards today but early strength should be shorted. The nasdaq seem to be forming out a bear flag which put me in caution mode especially if we do gap up and see a fill of the gap.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
UPSIDE
Well here is what is was saying. The upside move I was expecting happened this morning. It is just one hour into todays trading but I can definitely see the uptrend coming in with us being +180 points on the DOW. BIDU ANOTHER $10 and FSLR ANOTHER $5. Lets see where we finish today but I definitely think we get over that 12500 area this week
Tuesday
We’ll we did bounce a little yesterday although it took another flush out of the market open to do it. Following the mid-morning reversal off the lows, we rallied nicely into the close finishing near the highs of the session. The early down-leg kept us from advancing too far on the daily charts; absorption I call it as volatility and gaps absorb most of the buying pressure and it’s a market tone we have been witnessed the past couple of weeks, especially in the last few sessions. In fact we seem to be digesting the recent push-down forming bear flag/pennant consolidations and still look to me like we will make a move lower.
I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of continued upside for another day first, but I think the more likely scenario is a pull-back for Tuesday or another narrow range session. If we do break to the downside on the daily market charts, I would be prepared for more short-setups. A rally would have to clear the last swing highs from 2/1 before I look for a prolonged upside move.
Gold is currently morphing a bearish pattern at the highs and although we are in a bullish commodity run I am still looking for a pulback in GOLD to the $860 area of support. Also lets see if Oil decides to take another go at $100.
I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of continued upside for another day first, but I think the more likely scenario is a pull-back for Tuesday or another narrow range session. If we do break to the downside on the daily market charts, I would be prepared for more short-setups. A rally would have to clear the last swing highs from 2/1 before I look for a prolonged upside move.
Gold is currently morphing a bearish pattern at the highs and although we are in a bullish commodity run I am still looking for a pulback in GOLD to the $860 area of support. Also lets see if Oil decides to take another go at $100.
Monday, February 11, 2008
Awesome
Awesome call on the stocks mentioned to look at today!!! all are up except one.
BIDU+$8
GS+2.50
RIMM +4.70
FDX +.50
DIA+.72
LEH-.30
sweet
BIDU+$8
GS+2.50
RIMM +4.70
FDX +.50
DIA+.72
LEH-.30
sweet
TRADE CALL -Update
GWW short working nicely. presently +1.20 looking for +$3
INFY short also working nicely. currently + $1.30 from friday, looking for +$3
pretty dull day and although negative I dont see alot of volume on the downside. I am still upward biased for this week.
Oil is on a rampage almost hit $95 today after being down to 86 on thursday. As reiteration last night I am basically bullish for this week because of the move i saw in oil on Friday. $92 is still the line in the sand for Oil aslong as we are above that we can remain bullish
INFY short also working nicely. currently + $1.30 from friday, looking for +$3
pretty dull day and although negative I dont see alot of volume on the downside. I am still upward biased for this week.
Oil is on a rampage almost hit $95 today after being down to 86 on thursday. As reiteration last night I am basically bullish for this week because of the move i saw in oil on Friday. $92 is still the line in the sand for Oil aslong as we are above that we can remain bullish
Sunday, February 10, 2008
Contrarian View-Monday's game plan
Well everyone knows I am a bear long term but from the action I have seen last week in the market following the previous two weeks of action I am going out on a limb and saw we will bounce this week. I would not be surprised if we goto the 12700 before we start out decent again and hopefully we might even touch that wonderful 13000 again which would set up a beautiful short opportunity.
Last week friday action on Oil have made be believe the bounce in the market will happen sooner than later and my bet is it will happen within this week into next. We are deeply oversold and much of the selling from the earnings might be abating here for us to turn in a substantial bounce. Now I am no bull as stated I am a bear but you have got to play the bear market rallies when they come.
if we do bounce i will be watching 1426 on the S&P as the highest level of resistance. Yes we are far from there but I think that's the ultimate level to watch as a extreme target if the market starts to turn. Everyone is in the bear camp right now and I think they will get caught in the short covering in the next few days.
Couple of stocks to watch if we start to bounce are BIDU, GS, LEH, RIMM, DIA, FDX. I also wouldn't be surprised if we get some follow thru from the retailers and homebuilders.
Good Luck with this week trading.
Last week friday action on Oil have made be believe the bounce in the market will happen sooner than later and my bet is it will happen within this week into next. We are deeply oversold and much of the selling from the earnings might be abating here for us to turn in a substantial bounce. Now I am no bull as stated I am a bear but you have got to play the bear market rallies when they come.
if we do bounce i will be watching 1426 on the S&P as the highest level of resistance. Yes we are far from there but I think that's the ultimate level to watch as a extreme target if the market starts to turn. Everyone is in the bear camp right now and I think they will get caught in the short covering in the next few days.
Couple of stocks to watch if we start to bounce are BIDU, GS, LEH, RIMM, DIA, FDX. I also wouldn't be surprised if we get some follow thru from the retailers and homebuilders.
Good Luck with this week trading.
Friday, February 8, 2008
TRADE CALL
shorting GWW here -
Monster move by Oil today - need to take note of this. For monday I will be noting levels to watch on the upside and downside.
Shorted INFY this morning $42.60
Monster move by Oil today - need to take note of this. For monday I will be noting levels to watch on the upside and downside.
Shorted INFY this morning $42.60
Thursday, February 7, 2008
For Friday Feb 8 2008
Thursday the market did as per my assessment on wednesday. Market opened around the 1318 level as found support in the S&P, from there we mounted higher. Fear still persist in the market about a recession and defensive stocks like Phillip Morris are showing much strength in this market sentiment.
I have been noticing and reading of some weakness in the IT area of the economy especially those to do with outsourcing. One such first to watch for weakness is INFY. Presently in a downtrend should be highly playable as a short if the economy continues to weaken. I am still looking for a pullback in Gold to the $860 area but seems the fast money which was in OIL have set sights on GOLD.
The market has pulled back in volume this week and therefore puts me in the corner for more analysis on the next move. My ideal situation would be for us to get some buying and we move up and then go and test the lows but as said my times that's just my wishful thinking. Watch the solars they seem to be setting up again for a continuation down but I am not going to say when as I am not sure.
Watch for a gap up tomorrow for a short APPLE and BIDU seem to be weak here
I have been noticing and reading of some weakness in the IT area of the economy especially those to do with outsourcing. One such first to watch for weakness is INFY. Presently in a downtrend should be highly playable as a short if the economy continues to weaken. I am still looking for a pullback in Gold to the $860 area but seems the fast money which was in OIL have set sights on GOLD.
The market has pulled back in volume this week and therefore puts me in the corner for more analysis on the next move. My ideal situation would be for us to get some buying and we move up and then go and test the lows but as said my times that's just my wishful thinking. Watch the solars they seem to be setting up again for a continuation down but I am not going to say when as I am not sure.
Watch for a gap up tomorrow for a short APPLE and BIDU seem to be weak here
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
CSCO disappoints
After the bell CSCO disappointed investors with lack luster earnings for the quarter. Today while watching the market I saw cracks appearing in techs and financials again. BIDU the high flyer is almost 1/2 off its 52 week high. I have been ranting about these high flyers since december and have noted repeatedly of the massive run up on earnings expectations which these companies can't ultimately deliver on.
What has happened in tech especially is a concentrated money flow into a few names, which unlike the internet bubble led to a broad nasdaq rally. These few names have been getting the bulk of the run up of the last 2 years, noticably GOOGLE, APPLE, RIMM, BIDU, FSLR, VMW are just a few. What has happened here is just like looking for a dream job, alot of applicants for very few vacancies.
The break today of 1332 on the S&P was vital for the bulls and in the end it failed to hold miserably. Where do we go? well a test of the lows from 3 weeks ago more than likely will be tested. What happens on that test is the more important question to ask. With a weakening economy and disasterous January for the markets a test of the lows might trigger more selling which hopefully initiates a capitulary climax putting in a tradeable bottom.
Lets see how the market trades thursday and friday, this week has been very slow and we are winding up for a move.
Numbers to watch tomorrow
S&P 1318 support to be watched below that 1296. 1296 would be an S&P futures buy.
OIL in a full bear flag expect a test of $82 then $80
Talk to you tomorrow
What has happened in tech especially is a concentrated money flow into a few names, which unlike the internet bubble led to a broad nasdaq rally. These few names have been getting the bulk of the run up of the last 2 years, noticably GOOGLE, APPLE, RIMM, BIDU, FSLR, VMW are just a few. What has happened here is just like looking for a dream job, alot of applicants for very few vacancies.
The break today of 1332 on the S&P was vital for the bulls and in the end it failed to hold miserably. Where do we go? well a test of the lows from 3 weeks ago more than likely will be tested. What happens on that test is the more important question to ask. With a weakening economy and disasterous January for the markets a test of the lows might trigger more selling which hopefully initiates a capitulary climax putting in a tradeable bottom.
Lets see how the market trades thursday and friday, this week has been very slow and we are winding up for a move.
Numbers to watch tomorrow
S&P 1318 support to be watched below that 1296. 1296 would be an S&P futures buy.
OIL in a full bear flag expect a test of $82 then $80
Talk to you tomorrow
Mid day update
Well the market volatility has definitely slowed down this week. Yesterday 370 point drop was nothing to sneeze at and I was wrong to assume that this week would be an up week. I still think the bulls will make a stand at least into the resistance level again which I missed it by 5 point last week WOW. The beauty of technical analysis!!!!!
Oil looks to be set to take a pullback but honestly I dont think we pullback large enough in the bigger picture. Commodities without a doubt are stretched and are closer to a top than anything else. Google! how the might has falled. Google will be the other side of $400 this year for sure. I am predicting GOOG to be close to 360 at its lows some time this year. Apple is another one I am sure might head back sub $100 if the market get weak as I expect.
2009 will be a very bad year for the markets I can see it setting up a mile away. Sub 1000 on the S&P and sub 10k on the DOW is definite.
Oil looks to be set to take a pullback but honestly I dont think we pullback large enough in the bigger picture. Commodities without a doubt are stretched and are closer to a top than anything else. Google! how the might has falled. Google will be the other side of $400 this year for sure. I am predicting GOOG to be close to 360 at its lows some time this year. Apple is another one I am sure might head back sub $100 if the market get weak as I expect.
2009 will be a very bad year for the markets I can see it setting up a mile away. Sub 1000 on the S&P and sub 10k on the DOW is definite.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
ISM numbers terrible
I forgot that ISM non- manufacturing numbers were due this morning- we got a number in the low 40's which is a sign of very low production. Any number below 50 signifies a weak service environment. It is the first contraction in the service economy in 58 quarters. Let's see how we open off these numbers, futures have taken a hit on the numbers
Tuesday
Monday’ session started this week off on a bad note as a bearish impulse out of the open led to lower prices all day. However, the sell-off wasn’t extreme and didn’t break us down on the market daily charts, so I am maintaining my bullish bias here for the short term. Lets look for some kind of a rebound for today and I wouldn’t be surprised if see it in the form of a Turnaround Tuesday scenario so be prepared to jump on a reversal setup if we flush-out to new lows early in the day.
I still think the market can go higher here before we head down.
I still think the market can go higher here before we head down.
Monday, February 4, 2008
YAWN
What a boring day! but crack as showing us quietly.
Google is now below 500 and i can surely says all the analyst who called for GOOGLE to $1000 will only see that numbers in their dreams. Google will be funny to watch and as noted last week Google can lose $150 in a rush. I think Google will see $375 sometime this year and will announce a split in order to boost their stock price.
Today Gold is showing some weakness and also think Gold is very toppy here as everyone is thinking Gold will goto $1500.
The homebuilding stocks bounce seem to be running out of steam and with a number of people calling for a housing bottom this year a few might set up later in the year for the 401k investors but I wouldn't be holding my breathe.
I am taking ti easy this week as I am burnt out from the last 3 weeks of trading. I will update the blog as usual
Google is now below 500 and i can surely says all the analyst who called for GOOGLE to $1000 will only see that numbers in their dreams. Google will be funny to watch and as noted last week Google can lose $150 in a rush. I think Google will see $375 sometime this year and will announce a split in order to boost their stock price.
Today Gold is showing some weakness and also think Gold is very toppy here as everyone is thinking Gold will goto $1500.
The homebuilding stocks bounce seem to be running out of steam and with a number of people calling for a housing bottom this year a few might set up later in the year for the 401k investors but I wouldn't be holding my breathe.
I am taking ti easy this week as I am burnt out from the last 3 weeks of trading. I will update the blog as usual
Friday, February 1, 2008
Difficult
These daily swings up and down make it very hard to trade. This morning we had news of Microsoft purchasing Yahoo sent the futures higher and then got sold off after we got ISM numbers and JOb numbers which were ever weak. It is no doubt we are in the first leg of an recession.
Oh GOOGLE down to 517 that was some nice call on that short. Right now Google can easily see 425 on a push down if we get really bearish.
Oh GOOGLE down to 517 that was some nice call on that short. Right now Google can easily see 425 on a push down if we get really bearish.
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