I would just like to know for my readers if you are up or down for 2009?
Don't need to say how much but it would be nice if you are up and if you are down I would like to know what made you under water.
Marketjedi@gmail.com
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
July
As I have been writing for a couple months I think the highs of this leg higher in the market will be seen in July. Today we got our first small window into the downdraft to come I believe. I am looking for a definite break towards 878 before the end of next week or a short into that 938-945 zone or an ultimate 961.50 for a high probability short trade. We still have a technical target of 996.5 to 1069.75 area.
Ideally I would love to see us test that 962 area in July and pullback then test that 996-1069 area somewhere in the Last September- October as the final hurrah for the bulls but we will see soon enough.
On that note I think Oil was a short today in the $72 area and we will see how far it pullback. I do have some numbers around $61 which should provide the first real zone of support.
Please make a note of these levels, they always provide excellent trading opportunities.
MARKETJEDI
Ideally I would love to see us test that 962 area in July and pullback then test that 996-1069 area somewhere in the Last September- October as the final hurrah for the bulls but we will see soon enough.
On that note I think Oil was a short today in the $72 area and we will see how far it pullback. I do have some numbers around $61 which should provide the first real zone of support.
Please make a note of these levels, they always provide excellent trading opportunities.
MARKETJEDI
Monday, June 29, 2009
Going to plan
Everything is going to plan to our analysis at the end of last week and over the weekend. The last trading days are setting up for the windows dressing phenomenon and can clearly be seen especially with the move on crude oil today. I expect crude to move higher into tomorrow being one of the best performing asset over the last 3 months but then retreat as the second half of the year starts.
We are creeping higher into that 938-945 area for the S&P and if we do trade to that level this week I will be taking some puts on the indices home for a trade as I think it is a good risk reward trade.
952.75 is the top of the last swing high so keep a note of that if we do decide to go higher.
We are creeping higher into that 938-945 area for the S&P and if we do trade to that level this week I will be taking some puts on the indices home for a trade as I think it is a good risk reward trade.
952.75 is the top of the last swing high so keep a note of that if we do decide to go higher.
Sunday, June 28, 2009
Analysis of US Dollar
U.S. Dollar has had a small rally after completing the .618 retrace area of .78 a few weeks ago. It is suspect from this that we could be looking at another leg down coming shortly. It must be kept in mind however that until the .78 area is broken the possibility for the rally to further does continue. Should the dollar collapse, prices above $1.50 in the Euro and $1.70 in the GBP could be reached along with the flight to Gold.
Analysis of Gold
The .618 Fibonacci level at $913 has held and the market rallied over $30 oz in a few days. The double top potential still exists HOWEVER any move above $990 could forecast much higher prices to come and possibly in the order of $1200 an ounce.
Market Outlook
The Nasdaq which has led since the beginning of the year continues to do so while the Dow Jones has gotten weaker and weaker as can be seen on a daily chart. This same scenario happens to be a replica from the past when in 2000 the Nasdaq kept forging
ahead while the Dow kept weakening. It eventually played out with the Nasdaq dropping 85% in the following 3 years. When the Market hit the March 6 bottom we predicted a rally greater then any one that had taken place in recent history which has indeed occurred BUT we are now at a point where the Banking and Finance stocks have not exceeded previous highs.
The question now becomes do we make new highs in the Nasdaq followed with further divergence in the Dow and S&P before we sell off?
Certainly going below 870 for the S&P and 8100 for the Dow puts the Bears back in the drivers seat and from that point would not take much to eventually break through the March lows but for now the next step to follow is whether those highs will be broken.
TRADE IDEA::
Shorting the market in the window of 938 to 945 with a stop at 960 was worth the risk for those with high risk tolerance. Any drop below 888 is now confirmation of lower lows towards the 840 area
ahead while the Dow kept weakening. It eventually played out with the Nasdaq dropping 85% in the following 3 years. When the Market hit the March 6 bottom we predicted a rally greater then any one that had taken place in recent history which has indeed occurred BUT we are now at a point where the Banking and Finance stocks have not exceeded previous highs.
The question now becomes do we make new highs in the Nasdaq followed with further divergence in the Dow and S&P before we sell off?
Certainly going below 870 for the S&P and 8100 for the Dow puts the Bears back in the drivers seat and from that point would not take much to eventually break through the March lows but for now the next step to follow is whether those highs will be broken.
TRADE IDEA::
Shorting the market in the window of 938 to 945 with a stop at 960 was worth the risk for those with high risk tolerance. Any drop below 888 is now confirmation of lower lows towards the 840 area
Analysis of Crude
It appears that we have a completed wave structure up, a nice zigzag for A (white), and are in the process of a B down. My best guess is that B down will be a Elliott Wave flat or triangle based on the current structure. My count has crude completing an A (cyan) down and working on B up. I'm currently thinking about shorting crude via USO July 40 puts. I current would look at the 57-61 area for profit.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Mondays high
Monday's high is the number to watch on the ES futures on the upside 918.25 a solid break of that level should march up to 927. Remember folks we have end of quarter windows dressing and I believe that's why the market are staying up at these levels. I do have a cycle peak before July 11 area so we should make a peak before then before we get a meaningful pullback.
Presently we are mostly correcting in time more than price and that is very troublesome for the bulls especially with the declining volume. I do expect higher prices in the next few weeks to complete the pattern on the charts and the bear to return
MARKETJEDI
Presently we are mostly correcting in time more than price and that is very troublesome for the bulls especially with the declining volume. I do expect higher prices in the next few weeks to complete the pattern on the charts and the bear to return
MARKETJEDI
Bear Flag
We definitely forming a bear flag to start the morning trade so expect us to move down first before we find a footing. Remember to watch that 888.75 number again then 875 on the ES futures.
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
FED DAY
Today is FED day but I wont be in to analyze the announcement which really should be nothing :)
Expect us to at least 1/2 fill the gap and watch for the initial reaction after the announcement as it is usually not the correct direction of the trend.
I should be back tomorrow if I don't have another meeting scheduled
Expect us to at least 1/2 fill the gap and watch for the initial reaction after the announcement as it is usually not the correct direction of the trend.
I should be back tomorrow if I don't have another meeting scheduled
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Today's action
Coupled with the expansion day yesterday and the two day FED meeting today filled the day for a narrow range day. Tomorrow should be much of the same till after 2:15pm when we get the decision on rates. Folks although it looks weak here I still expect one more push into July before we truly die and see much lower prices.
Stay tuned
MARKETJEDI
Stay tuned
MARKETJEDI
875
Remember that's the important level to watch on the futures. Do we move down to that level today? As we approach lunch time we are around 886.50 and breached yesterday's lows so it is possible but a 875 end today would be significantly bearish and but the handle in the bears camp.
Financials are slowing giving it up so keep on eye on that sector.
Financials are slowing giving it up so keep on eye on that sector.
Monday, June 22, 2009
Interesting isn't it??????
Anyone see where we closed on the ES futures??????
888.50!!!!!!
Mentioned the 888.75 area before lunch time today. Man oh man ACCURACY!!!
If we break 875 strong this week we should get a nice push down this time. Remember tomorrow is tuesday and turn around tuesday is in effect but with a trend day down today we will more likely chop.
MARKETJEDI
888.50!!!!!!
Mentioned the 888.75 area before lunch time today. Man oh man ACCURACY!!!
If we break 875 strong this week we should get a nice push down this time. Remember tomorrow is tuesday and turn around tuesday is in effect but with a trend day down today we will more likely chop.
MARKETJEDI
Note the voume on the upside
I commented on the upgrades of the financials last week especially BAC but we haven't moved higher. Today's move down is solely the banks and oil stocks.
Trend day down
Trend day down developing. No fade and we broke that 898. Next level at watch is 888.75
Market weak
Market looks weak here- See if they hold that 898 level on the S&P noted last week as that is first line support.
GS
Funny has Goldman Sachs announcing this morning of the highest bonus payouts ever for the company due to trading currencies. Hmm I wonder if that was the reason why a month ago they were in a rush to pay back the TARP funds so they woundn't have any restrictions on these payouts. Also they uses the TARP money to trade currencies instead of using it for what it was intended to be used for.
Man oh man when will the corruption and scamming stop.
Man oh man when will the corruption and scamming stop.
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Thursday
915 is the number to watch today-if the bulls can get over we can goto 923.
One other point here folks, the banks have gotten alot of upgrades especially BAC but we haven't moved much higher since.
I think the upgrading these stocks to dump them on retail investors, a usual scam by the big boys so we carefully if you are long these stocks. More than likely they will get one more push higher then fall.
One other point here folks, the banks have gotten alot of upgrades especially BAC but we haven't moved much higher since.
I think the upgrading these stocks to dump them on retail investors, a usual scam by the big boys so we carefully if you are long these stocks. More than likely they will get one more push higher then fall.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
913 was important
913 was a very important number although I see no analyst or technician saying so. The longer the stay below 913 it is a sign the balance has changed to the downside. Lets see how we push today, two back to back down days if the bears can make it three we will see some of the recent bullishness subside.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Turnaround Tuesday
Turnaround tuesdays have been effect for a couple of weeks now. Since yesterday was a trend day down I dont expect much movement till after lunch and based on the turnaround tuesday formula we should end the day mildly positive.
Morgan Stanley came out today saying the market is overbought so we will see the effects of that later this week.
Good trading
Morgan Stanley came out today saying the market is overbought so we will see the effects of that later this week.
Good trading
Monday, June 15, 2009
IMF said worst to come
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The head of the IMF warned on Monday it was too soon to discuss rolling back stimulus spending, saying the world economy had yet to weather the worst of a recession that has hammered industrial output and claimed a record number of European jobs.
"We first have to exit the crisis before we can implement an exit strategy, and we haven't exited the crisis yet," International Monetary Fund chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn said during a visit to Kazakhstan.
U.S. and South Korean officials made similar comments, and an influential Chinese economist said China would not rebound rapidly. Stocks fell worldwide.
The 16-country euro zone lost 1.22 million jobs in the first quarter, official data showed, and a report on New York state factory activity showed manufacturing slowing again after some improvement in recent months.
In southern Italy, Group of Eight finance ministers meeting over the weekend described their economies in the most positive terms since the deepening nine months ago of the world's worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
"Their (G8) stance is that we are beginning to see some green shoots but nevertheless we have to be cautious," the IMF's Strauss-Kahn told a news conference in Astana. "The large part of the worst is not yet behind us."
"We see ... a recovery toward the beginning of 2010, 2009 is already done, we know it's a bad year," he said. "At the global economic level, the growth will be minus 1.3 (percent), which is the first negative growth since the Depression."
STIMULUS SPENDING ENDORSED
In Washington, IMF officials said the United States was right to keep stimulus dollars flowing and that would help the country achieve growth of 0.75 percent in 2010 after a decline of 2.5 percent in 2009. Once that turnaround is assured, they said, officials should address the threat of soaring deficits.
Pressure has been building in the G8, particularly from fiscally conservative nations such as Germany and Canada, for plans to wind down stimulus as soon as it is no longer needed.
But ministers in Lecce differed over how quickly to start rolling back state spending plans and hiking interest rates.
The lack of inflationary pressures strengthens the hand of officials who argue against unwinding stimulus measures. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said on Monday inflation is not currently a risk to the U.S. economy. The Fed has cut benchmark U.S. interest rates to near zero and doubled the size of its balance sheet to $2 trillion to help battle the downturn.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner indicated the United States was unlikely to tighten policy soon, saying: "It is too early to shift toward policy restraint."
Writing in the Washington Post on Monday, Geithner said a sweeping financial regulation reform plan to be released this week would target capital and liquidity requirements, impose robust reporting requirements on issuers of asset-backed securities and require the originators of those securities to retain a financial interest in their performance.
The largest and most interconnected firms could expect to face more stringent requirements as well as consolidated supervision by the Federal Reserve.
The factory sector in New York state shrank at a more severe rate in June than the previous month, the New York Federal Reserve said in a report.
The New York Fed's "Empire State" general business conditions index fell to minus 9.41 in June from minus 4.55 in May. The survey of manufacturing plants in the state is one of the earliest monthly signposts to U.S. factory conditions.
"We've got a little bit of cold water thrown on the manufacturing sector's recovery after seeing some persistent improvements," said Eric Lascelles, chief economics and rates strategist at TD Securities in Toronto.
In the Euro zone, the number of employed fell 1.2 percent year-on-year, the deepest annual drop since measurements started in 1995.
"Markedly weakening labor markets are a major threat to recovery prospects in the euro zone," said Howard Archer, economist at IHS Global Insight.
STOCKS DOWN
Further underlining the fragile state of the global economy, an influential economist said China would not see a rapid rebound and South Korea's finance minister said its economy was still sliding, although the pace had slowed.
Li Yang, a former adviser to the People's Bank of China, said he expected China's recovery to be "W-shaped" -- meaning growth will falter once fiscal and monetary stimulus wears off, before regaining momentum.
"The economy is certainly still sliding, although the pace of decline is slowing," said South Korean Finance Minister Yoon Jeung-hyun. "Let me make it clear that we are not at the stage for a change in the aggressive fiscal stimulus."
The dollar rose across the board after Russia said its role as the world's main reserve currency was unlikely to change in the near future, hitting energy and commodity prices. Oil, mining and financial shares led the global downturn in stocks.
U.S. stock markets closed lower, with the broad S&P 500 down 2.4 percent after European shares shed 2.5 percent and Tokyo's Nikkei lost 1 percent.
Global equity prices have risen by well over 30 percent since indexes hit their lows in March as investors have become less gloomy on the prospects for economic recovery. Monday's declines came as investors around the world locked in profits.
"It seems to me what's going down the most is the stuff that gone up the most. There's been enormous moves both in equities and in commodities recently," said Eric Kuby, chief investment officer at North Star Investment Management Corp in Chicago.
Analysts said a net capital outflow from the United States of $53.2 billion in April reflected a reversal of the global risk aversion that had buoyed Treasuries in recent months.
"We first have to exit the crisis before we can implement an exit strategy, and we haven't exited the crisis yet," International Monetary Fund chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn said during a visit to Kazakhstan.
U.S. and South Korean officials made similar comments, and an influential Chinese economist said China would not rebound rapidly. Stocks fell worldwide.
The 16-country euro zone lost 1.22 million jobs in the first quarter, official data showed, and a report on New York state factory activity showed manufacturing slowing again after some improvement in recent months.
In southern Italy, Group of Eight finance ministers meeting over the weekend described their economies in the most positive terms since the deepening nine months ago of the world's worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
"Their (G8) stance is that we are beginning to see some green shoots but nevertheless we have to be cautious," the IMF's Strauss-Kahn told a news conference in Astana. "The large part of the worst is not yet behind us."
"We see ... a recovery toward the beginning of 2010, 2009 is already done, we know it's a bad year," he said. "At the global economic level, the growth will be minus 1.3 (percent), which is the first negative growth since the Depression."
STIMULUS SPENDING ENDORSED
In Washington, IMF officials said the United States was right to keep stimulus dollars flowing and that would help the country achieve growth of 0.75 percent in 2010 after a decline of 2.5 percent in 2009. Once that turnaround is assured, they said, officials should address the threat of soaring deficits.
Pressure has been building in the G8, particularly from fiscally conservative nations such as Germany and Canada, for plans to wind down stimulus as soon as it is no longer needed.
But ministers in Lecce differed over how quickly to start rolling back state spending plans and hiking interest rates.
The lack of inflationary pressures strengthens the hand of officials who argue against unwinding stimulus measures. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said on Monday inflation is not currently a risk to the U.S. economy. The Fed has cut benchmark U.S. interest rates to near zero and doubled the size of its balance sheet to $2 trillion to help battle the downturn.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner indicated the United States was unlikely to tighten policy soon, saying: "It is too early to shift toward policy restraint."
Writing in the Washington Post on Monday, Geithner said a sweeping financial regulation reform plan to be released this week would target capital and liquidity requirements, impose robust reporting requirements on issuers of asset-backed securities and require the originators of those securities to retain a financial interest in their performance.
The largest and most interconnected firms could expect to face more stringent requirements as well as consolidated supervision by the Federal Reserve.
The factory sector in New York state shrank at a more severe rate in June than the previous month, the New York Federal Reserve said in a report.
The New York Fed's "Empire State" general business conditions index fell to minus 9.41 in June from minus 4.55 in May. The survey of manufacturing plants in the state is one of the earliest monthly signposts to U.S. factory conditions.
"We've got a little bit of cold water thrown on the manufacturing sector's recovery after seeing some persistent improvements," said Eric Lascelles, chief economics and rates strategist at TD Securities in Toronto.
In the Euro zone, the number of employed fell 1.2 percent year-on-year, the deepest annual drop since measurements started in 1995.
"Markedly weakening labor markets are a major threat to recovery prospects in the euro zone," said Howard Archer, economist at IHS Global Insight.
STOCKS DOWN
Further underlining the fragile state of the global economy, an influential economist said China would not see a rapid rebound and South Korea's finance minister said its economy was still sliding, although the pace had slowed.
Li Yang, a former adviser to the People's Bank of China, said he expected China's recovery to be "W-shaped" -- meaning growth will falter once fiscal and monetary stimulus wears off, before regaining momentum.
"The economy is certainly still sliding, although the pace of decline is slowing," said South Korean Finance Minister Yoon Jeung-hyun. "Let me make it clear that we are not at the stage for a change in the aggressive fiscal stimulus."
The dollar rose across the board after Russia said its role as the world's main reserve currency was unlikely to change in the near future, hitting energy and commodity prices. Oil, mining and financial shares led the global downturn in stocks.
U.S. stock markets closed lower, with the broad S&P 500 down 2.4 percent after European shares shed 2.5 percent and Tokyo's Nikkei lost 1 percent.
Global equity prices have risen by well over 30 percent since indexes hit their lows in March as investors have become less gloomy on the prospects for economic recovery. Monday's declines came as investors around the world locked in profits.
"It seems to me what's going down the most is the stuff that gone up the most. There's been enormous moves both in equities and in commodities recently," said Eric Kuby, chief investment officer at North Star Investment Management Corp in Chicago.
Analysts said a net capital outflow from the United States of $53.2 billion in April reflected a reversal of the global risk aversion that had buoyed Treasuries in recent months.
That was quick
Well when I posted to the blog yesterday of support @912 I didn't think we will hit it today. Seem like sellers are coming back into the market but for how long and how deep will we pull in.
It has been a hard sell of the bears these last few weeks but who knows. Gold, silver Oil and the other commodities are down today as the dollar finds some strength.
912 is the MAGIC number for the close. (based on the sept contract)
It has been a hard sell of the bears these last few weeks but who knows. Gold, silver Oil and the other commodities are down today as the dollar finds some strength.
912 is the MAGIC number for the close. (based on the sept contract)
Sunday, June 14, 2009
Short term
Support for the SPX remains at 935 and then 912, with resistance at 961 and then 990. Short term momentum was slightly oversold at friday's SPX 936 low and rising at the close. The support and resistance pivots just noted, align exactly with the short term wave structure. The SPX challenged the 961 pivot on thursday and was immediately turned away. On friday the pullback bottomed at the 935 pivot and then rallied into the close. Should the SPX break through the 961 pivot it should be on its way to the 50% rally level at 1001. When the SPX drops below the 935 pivot, downside momentum should take hold. Then when the SPX drops below the 912 pivot, it will be a good signal that the Mar-Jun uptrend may have ended. With a 40% gain in hand, and a potential 5% further gain ahead, the risk/reward ratio favors a cautious position
Friday, June 12, 2009
Volume
Volume in the summer is usually very low but we are getting lower volume than usual here. It will be very interesting to see what we do for the rest of the month and for that matter the summer. If this volume is any indication summer should we a dull time indeed.
WOW
Wow what an exciting week in the markets- the DOW ended up 9 points higher on the week.
Told you folks we just going to be in chop fest. We going to break one way or the other soon question is when.
Have a peaceful weekend
Told you folks we just going to be in chop fest. We going to break one way or the other soon question is when.
Have a peaceful weekend
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
Observation
I think that we are getting to a level where everyone is comfortable with the market going higher. This obviously has me nervous as the higher we grind up because of the US$ will make it harder for businesses and consumer to fund spending as interest rate will rise.
I am looking at the housing reports and it is terrible what I am reading and the increase in the interest rates will only keep the return of the housing market even further. It is a high probability as I have said many times we will be in a recession on the housing front for years.
I think there is a good shot the administration and FED have lengthened the recession with the continued printing of money and I am expecting another shoe to drop before the fourth quarter of 2009.
Apple dropping prices is a sign of consumers feeling the crunch even for higher end products. While the market chop around here just read news and get the real stories.
MARKETJEDI
I am looking at the housing reports and it is terrible what I am reading and the increase in the interest rates will only keep the return of the housing market even further. It is a high probability as I have said many times we will be in a recession on the housing front for years.
I think there is a good shot the administration and FED have lengthened the recession with the continued printing of money and I am expecting another shoe to drop before the fourth quarter of 2009.
Apple dropping prices is a sign of consumers feeling the crunch even for higher end products. While the market chop around here just read news and get the real stories.
MARKETJEDI
Monday, June 8, 2009
Some points to look for
920 on the S&P is the level to watch for the bears. If they can get us down to a close below 920 this week more than likely we should head down to 883 level with strong support @875.
Ont he upside 955 is the obvious number a break there should lead us to 968 then above that 1000 area.
The rally is getting thinner but inflation in prices and devaluing dollar can lead us to higher nominal stock prices so be careful
Ont he upside 955 is the obvious number a break there should lead us to 968 then above that 1000 area.
The rally is getting thinner but inflation in prices and devaluing dollar can lead us to higher nominal stock prices so be careful
Thursday, June 4, 2009
Bulls
The bulls made a very good case here today by defending the lower levels of the day. Good shot we inch higher and as I said before looks like we will make a intermediate high before the second week of July which should be an excellent shorting opportunity.
GS upped their target on Oil and oil made a mad rush to a new multi month high.
Anyone notice the commodities, Oil, Gold, silver all higher as I have been saying for months expect those to head higher as the Dollar get shaky.
GS upped their target on Oil and oil made a mad rush to a new multi month high.
Anyone notice the commodities, Oil, Gold, silver all higher as I have been saying for months expect those to head higher as the Dollar get shaky.
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
Break out or Make out
Did the market break out yesterday or did it make out with the bulls just to make them happy :)
Today I think I would say break out but we broke out into heavy resistance and that makes it hard to get much traction today. I do believe we will see the 960 area this week but then I would expect some kind of meaningful decline but we been calling for that to no prevail.
Today I think I would say break out but we broke out into heavy resistance and that makes it hard to get much traction today. I do believe we will see the 960 area this week but then I would expect some kind of meaningful decline but we been calling for that to no prevail.
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