Friday, July 30, 2010
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Higher
Now way the bulls come so far and don't try to pump higher. I have been wrong before but I am betting that we will be higher into the weekend
Monday, July 26, 2010
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Market
Last week was back and forth with the Bulls coming out ahead in the end. It looks very good for the 200 day moving average to be tested early on this week.
Does this mean the Bulls will be back in force? Not quite. In order for the Bulls to resume control, the 200 day moving average needs to be breached.
Best scenario for Monday will be a gap down for a buying opportunity and then be watching closely if that 200 day MA is tested. There may be short term day-trade opportunities off of that bigger time frame moving average, so stay alert.
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
WOW
Markets surely dont like what bernanke is saying. What did hey really think he was going to say, that we on the road to full recovery, hahahha what a joke.
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
APPLE
Hate that stock rrrrrrrrrrg. have some puts looks like they going to be worth nothing after this push higher after hours.
Have a feeling
Have a feeling something is out there that will about to surface to scare investors again. News is going out about a surprise interest rate cut and that tells me something is out there ready to happen. Could it be that more countries are about to default??
BAC
BAC finally broke down below that $15 level and now shows a confirmed lower. Next level to watch is $12.75
GS
Well GS is saying environment became very difficult in the last quarter. I want to see how the spin this during their conference call. Futures has continued its weakness since GS earnings announcement.
Friday, July 16, 2010
I know :)
I know I said I am out for rest of week but can't stay away completely. Just exhausted right now.
Not counting overnight or pre-market action, here is where we stand with the market.
The S&P 500 ran into the zone highlighted last weekend, and while initially rejecting this area, the market closed strong on Thursday. The 50 day moving average is also in play here, as the last 3 days have traded back and forth through this key level.
The next level to watch on the upside will be the 200 day moving average. We are pretty overbought on the short term, so I will be watching for a retracement before we get moving to that big barometer. If the bulls have one more gasp in them, we could get there before a pullback, but be careful getting biased as we are in earnings season, which means there are wild cards in play here.
Not counting overnight or pre-market action, here is where we stand with the market.
The S&P 500 ran into the zone highlighted last weekend, and while initially rejecting this area, the market closed strong on Thursday. The 50 day moving average is also in play here, as the last 3 days have traded back and forth through this key level.
The next level to watch on the upside will be the 200 day moving average. We are pretty overbought on the short term, so I will be watching for a retracement before we get moving to that big barometer. If the bulls have one more gasp in them, we could get there before a pullback, but be careful getting biased as we are in earnings season, which means there are wild cards in play here.
Thursday, July 15, 2010
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Why the FED keeping rates low
WASHINGTON – Federal Reserve officials have a slightly dimmer view of the economy than they did in April, reflecting worries about how the European debt crisis could affect U.S. growth and job prospects.
Fed officials said Wednesday in an updated economic forecast that they think the economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, will grow between 3 percent and 3.5 percent this year. That's a downward revision from a growth range in their April forecast of 3.2 percent to 3.7 percent.
The Fed's latest forecast sees the unemployment rate, now at 9.5 percent, possibly staying at that figure or in the best case falling to 9.2 percent. In the April forecast, the Fed had a slightly lower bottom number of 9.1 percent.
The Fed said in the minutes of its June 22-23 meeting that its lower economic projections reflected "economic developments abroad" — a reference to the debt crisis that began in Greece and threatened to spread to other European countries.
While reducing the forecast for growth and employment, the Fed also saw less of a threat from inflation.
The Fed predicted that a key inflation gauge that's tied to consumer spending would show prices rising 1 percent to 1.1 percent this year. That's down from an April forecast that consumer prices would increase by 1.2 percent to 1.5 percent.
The absence of inflationary pressures gives the Fed leeway to keep interest rates low to try to bolster growth as the economy recovers from the deepest recession since the 1930s.
The new forecast was compiled at the last meeting of the Fed's interest rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee on June 22-23. At that meeting, the FOMC, which is composed of Fed board members and the 12 Fed regional bank presidents, kept a key rate at a record low of 0 to 0.25 percent, where it's been since December 2008.
The Fed's new forecast made only minor changes to its outlook for growth, unemployment and inflation. But those changes underscored a view that economic prospects were slightly weaker.
The factors the Fed cited were household and business uncertainty, weak real estate markets, a tough job market, waning fiscal stimulus and still-tight lending by banks.
The Fed in April had said only a minority of Fed officials thought it would take more than five or six years to reach the Fed's goals for maximum employment with low inflation. But in the new minutes, the Fed changed that to say that "most" expected it to take "no more than five or six years."
Beyond this year, the Fed forecast growth in 2011 to be in a range between 3.5 percent to 4.2 percent. The upper limit of that range was reduced from 4.5 percent in the April forecast.
The expectation for the unemployment rate next year was also nudged higher to a range of 8.3 percent to 8.7 percent. That was up from a range of 8.1 percent to 8.5 percent in April.
To obtain its forecast ranges, the Fed excludes the three highest and three lowest forecasts of Fed officials for each economic variable.
Fed officials said Wednesday in an updated economic forecast that they think the economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, will grow between 3 percent and 3.5 percent this year. That's a downward revision from a growth range in their April forecast of 3.2 percent to 3.7 percent.
The Fed's latest forecast sees the unemployment rate, now at 9.5 percent, possibly staying at that figure or in the best case falling to 9.2 percent. In the April forecast, the Fed had a slightly lower bottom number of 9.1 percent.
The Fed said in the minutes of its June 22-23 meeting that its lower economic projections reflected "economic developments abroad" — a reference to the debt crisis that began in Greece and threatened to spread to other European countries.
While reducing the forecast for growth and employment, the Fed also saw less of a threat from inflation.
The Fed predicted that a key inflation gauge that's tied to consumer spending would show prices rising 1 percent to 1.1 percent this year. That's down from an April forecast that consumer prices would increase by 1.2 percent to 1.5 percent.
The absence of inflationary pressures gives the Fed leeway to keep interest rates low to try to bolster growth as the economy recovers from the deepest recession since the 1930s.
The new forecast was compiled at the last meeting of the Fed's interest rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee on June 22-23. At that meeting, the FOMC, which is composed of Fed board members and the 12 Fed regional bank presidents, kept a key rate at a record low of 0 to 0.25 percent, where it's been since December 2008.
The Fed's new forecast made only minor changes to its outlook for growth, unemployment and inflation. But those changes underscored a view that economic prospects were slightly weaker.
The factors the Fed cited were household and business uncertainty, weak real estate markets, a tough job market, waning fiscal stimulus and still-tight lending by banks.
The Fed in April had said only a minority of Fed officials thought it would take more than five or six years to reach the Fed's goals for maximum employment with low inflation. But in the new minutes, the Fed changed that to say that "most" expected it to take "no more than five or six years."
Beyond this year, the Fed forecast growth in 2011 to be in a range between 3.5 percent to 4.2 percent. The upper limit of that range was reduced from 4.5 percent in the April forecast.
The expectation for the unemployment rate next year was also nudged higher to a range of 8.3 percent to 8.7 percent. That was up from a range of 8.1 percent to 8.5 percent in April.
To obtain its forecast ranges, the Fed excludes the three highest and three lowest forecasts of Fed officials for each economic variable.
Monday, July 12, 2010
Note
Last week, the market had traded down to a key level that I was watching for an oversold bounce to develop from. The market obliged and we had a nice size rally into the end of the week, closing at our highs of the week.
We are now short term overbought and approaching a key resistance level, in the form of a Fibonacci cluster made up of the 38% retracement of the big swing down and the 62% retracement of the shorter, more recent leg. this will likely come into play as a ceiling, requiring the market to build up some steam before busting through.
I still feel we have more upside to be seen on the intermedate-short term time zone. I do not believe we just straight crater from here, but I'm surely not going to go on my beliefs, and instead go with the market.
We are now short term overbought and approaching a key resistance level, in the form of a Fibonacci cluster made up of the 38% retracement of the big swing down and the 62% retracement of the shorter, more recent leg. this will likely come into play as a ceiling, requiring the market to build up some steam before busting through.
I still feel we have more upside to be seen on the intermedate-short term time zone. I do not believe we just straight crater from here, but I'm surely not going to go on my beliefs, and instead go with the market.
Friday, July 9, 2010
Thought
I am still thinking we have more upside- I am watching but market is getting very boring here as most as waiting for Earnings Season and with that I believe the chances of us going higher is a much better play.
Stay light remember it is summer
Stay light remember it is summer
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Dead On
Dead on Sunday night on this bounce even yesterday when we dive I noted we should not be ready to call it a done deal, why? Well we have a lot of oversold signals and although the path of least resistance is down we just won't go there in a straight line so we have to absorb some of this oversold condition first.
Will be out for the rest of day.
Will be out for the rest of day.
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
Monday, July 5, 2010
S&P
Weekly chart on the S&P 500 here. Though I think we get a bounce in here somewhere I have no idea how far it will go when and if we do. Remember staying below the 50MA is very negative development.
Thursday, July 1, 2010
Next important level
Next important level is 1021/3. If we touch there without any significant bounce we will target 950 as next heavy support area. Blog will be dark till next Monday, happy holidays, be safe.
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