Futures down

Well seem like the rate cuts yesterday didn't have a push for the bulls. The futures are currently down 200 points before the open and numbers out that consumer spending is at a 15 month low. I will be buying this gap down for at least a bounce and see what pans out. As said before we are 100% definitely in a bear market and as can be seen in yesterday's action all upside moves are being sold into.
Don't let your 401K turn into a 201 K. play the short side or stay in cash.

FOMC- FED announcement today

Tuesday as expected was a narrow range day, although it had a slight bullish tone to it. A gap up tried to fade but found support quickly and we chopped throughout the day. I would expect more of the same for today up until the FOMC announcement at 2:15 p.m. We usually don’t trend much before the Fed decision as traders sit on the sidelines. When the announcement comes it usually sets us up for a nice fade off the initial spike and then a possible trend into the close either way depending on the reaction to the report. This is certainly a key meeting so I would look for a lot of volatility surrounding the announcement and a good chance we trend following the spike.

As far as the charts are concerned, we still look higher in my opinion, as we still haven’t moved off last week’s reversal pattern, but the Fed will take center stage and precedent over the charts. If they give us good news we could blow up over the next few days, if not, we could see new lows. Let’s stay on the sidelines until the report comes out and then look for our setups .We will re-evaluate after today. Good Trading and we will talk to you on Thursday.

GROUP CHAT-Please email

This is a repeat post as to the interest in forming a group chat.


I have gotten request from some readers on my opinion on various sectors such as FOREX, commodities, stocks etc. There is no way I can write on all these topics daily but would gladly accommodate anyone who wants to ask questions on the markets if I can.
I would like to therefore know from readers if they would be interested in the set up of a GROUP forum, so questions can be asked and discussed with more accuracy. This way i could chart your questions and give my technical analysis from what i see on the charts.

All those who are interested please email marketjedi@gmail.com and I will set up a group forum if I have enough people interested.


MARKETJEDI.

Tuesday

Futures are currently up meaning we should get some follow through of yesterday's upside. I am looking for us today to consolidate some of the move of yesterday and friday and with the FOMC looming tomorrow I do expect traders to slowdown on volume.
I think we still have an upside bias into the FOMC meeting and maybe for the week but then i do see the upside limited afterwards. What I would be doing here if I am long is looking to sell into this uptrend and always look for some short positions once we get into the resistance area around 1396-1406 area. We will see soon enough if we are right but I will be playing it as such for the moment based on what i see now.

Nice when you are right!!

Market played out exactly as how I said it would today, early weakness was definitely a buying opportunity. The S&P closed at its highs and I would expect a slight upward bias till we have our 2:10 PM announcement Wednesday from the FED. John Deere was so sweet today from our mention this morning and Mastercard I still believe will get going too. Mastercard got hit this morning on the news of the VISA ipo might be delayed.
The solar stock, brokers, gambling and some tech stock were on good solid ground today. One negative I have today is the lack of relative strength from the Nasdaq. This ,ust be watched tomorrow and wednesday after the announcement as the are the leaders of the market.
I am presently in bounce mode in my gameplan and i expect us to get some resistance in the 1396-1426 #'s on the S&P.

Start of Week

Well this week is the FED meeting and we should get a possible .25% or .50% rate cut. With that said I do expect an upward bias this week in the market although I hear Cramer saying the market is going to go down this week. I think the reversal candle of last week is in place and we should bounce. If we do bounce i would be looking at the same stocks mentioned last week with the addition of DE (John Deere) and MA (Mastercard) which i see having a $10 gain to the upside from the charts.
GOLD!!! Everyone seem to be a gold bull right now and I am going to go out on a limb here as usual and say Gold is very near a TOP. Gold has been been on a massive run and I personally thing it could pull back significantly.
This morning we are gapping down and i willing to buy at support levels 1315-1320 on the S&P and see if we get a bounce. If we do have a bounce this week we could test the 1400 level which would be a good bounce. I am nowhere a bull but a trader and I think we are in mode to bounce at these levels.

GROUP CHAT

I have gotten request from some readers on my opinion on various sectors such as FOREX, commodities, stocks etc. There is no way I can write on all these topics daily but would gladly accommodate anyone who wants to ask questions on the markets if I can.
I would like to therefore know from readers if they would be interested in the set up of a GROUP forum, so questions can be asked and discussed with more accuracy. This way i could chart your questions and give my technical analysis from what i see on the charts.

All those who are interested please email marketjedi@gmail.com and I will set up a group forum if I have enough people interested.


MARKETJEDI.

Whacked

Noted this would happen last night and to be careful. Same exact thing happen last earnings season with Microsoft, they gapped us up huge and sold us off. I guess it is now officially a trend!!
Next week should be interesting with the FED meeting. I doubt they sell us off into the meeting but after the meeting no doubt that the bias should be down based on this week action.


have a great weekend

Mid Day

Well we went right to that 1372 area around 1370.75 in the first 5 minutes of trading and wham resistance. Right now we are at 1347 so that resistance worked like a charm. Very choppy day today so far. I guess the best play would have been to short the S&P in that first 5 minutes.

Friday

Futures are up huge this morning on Microsoft and Caterpillar's earnings. Some resistance should show up on the S&P around 1372 which is over the overnight highs. I would be looking to short at this range value. Beyond that watch for resistance at 1480 if we get there


Good Luck today

Friday

I expected us to consolidate on thursday and so we did. There was lot of action in the heavy momo names especially in tech land working there way out of oversold conditions. After the close Microsoft beat earnings but if last earnings season is to be respected Microsoft sold off in a couple of days to levels before earnings. I think we have a chance to do the same thing as I am not sure we are finished to the downside on the markets.
I would love for us to climb upward to the 1400 level on the S&P to get short. I think there will be a comfortable level to play the market down again. Next week is the FED meeting and for what it is worth I am very sure they will try to keep the market afloat till then and at least 70% of earning season is over. Lets face it folks after the FED meeting and earnings are out of the way we will continue the downtrend.
Fridays are usually tricky and it is best to keep it light but as usually the same pattern is in play. A gap up should be shorted and depend on how much of a pullback we get I would be buying the same momo stocks mentioned yesterday. One important thing to look for on Friday is volume as it is the telling tale.

Are you kidding me!!!!!!!

We are on FIREEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

all stocks mention here this morning are up

FSLR+ $8
BSC+ .50 went as high as $2
TOL +$1.50 huge percentage mover
GS - flat here
Google+ $20 went as high as +$30

only HD and LOW down like 60 cent each.

WOW on fire.

Thursday 24th

Well that was some monster rally off the lows. The lows yesterday were significant as they prove that we must test and did test the lows of Tuesday premarket FED rate cut. So what happened today? Well let me first start by saying that the ten largest gains in the DOW and S&P happened in bear markets, why this is so I will explain. In bear markets just as bull markets we often get exaggerated in one direction, bear market to the downside and bull markets to the upside. Since January we have been down and as of now we are on record to post the worst January in market history but I digress. The first two weeks of January I have been getting a lot of oversold conditions on the market such as extreme TRIN readings. These extreme TRIN$ readings for days cause what is referred to as ‘Elastic band theory’, which is where we are so stretched to the downside that when the selling pressure eases up we catapult in the opposite direction. Today was a classic example of that theory.
Now what next for the market? Today I anticipate the Bulls to show up and consolidate the move made yesterday. What I would love to see is a gap down and a push higher into some resistance at 1355 on the S&P. Whether this happen is just a guess but just like yesterday’s blog entry of a devious scenario which did play out I might as well guess for this scenario to happen today. After we hit resistance I do expect us to consolidate the move.
For today my plan is this- I will be looking at the strong sectors and stocks to have some follow through. On a gap down I would 100% be a buyer of stocks such as BSC, FDX, GS, FSLR and even GOOGLE. One sector I have been making note of in the past few sessions is the housing and retail sector. Yes these two sectors have been so beaten down that funds seem to be bottom picking at a few of them, noticeable LOW, HD, CTX, TOL etc. I suspect these two sectors should see alittle more upside if the market pushes higher here.
Today I would take small and see how we digest the move, but I would be looking on the above stocks on any set up and also looking for resistance into that S&P area noted above.

Good Luck.

Turn around ?

Tomorrow morning I will be pointing out where i think the market will go after todays turn around on news that the congress is planning on mortgage bailouts.

STAY TUNED!!!!!

Devious Scenario playing out

As noted this morning before the market open of a possible devious scenario has happened. It is pretty scary that the FED has no power and they shouldn't if they approach problems as such.
My targets on this downside have been on fire if I might toot my own horn. Google i said would retrace down to $550 level it is at $530 now, BIDU is said would be below $250 now it is $240 and APPLE i said would go to $165 then $150 is now at $128. Those are some huge moves. I was going to do a Market trade yesterday on MA (Mastercard) but didn't, i am sorry i didn't as MA is down $10 today.

I will update in a few as I see some plays i see setting up

Devious Scenario

Well yesterday the market reacted how i expected on a huge gap down. The Market retraced over 350 point in the first hour but then we coiled in a very tight range from 11am till the close. The .75% cut might have saved us from dropping a whopping 1000 points, but my question is, was it all a one day wonder?
The most devious situation for us today would be for us to retrace down the 350 point we bounced yesterday and test the overnight lows of Monday. Wow that would cause serious panic and we would get a capitulation scenario where we could work on a much better base. I have no doubt we will bounce but I am 100% sure the lows of Monday futures will be tested and broken, yes broken, no way it holds if we test those lows. Just like I told many in 2004 that the housing market would crash and it would take 6 years to completely recover, I am saying the same here for the markets. No way we go down for 3 months and that's all the bear market has to offer when we were in a bull market for 4.5 years, just not logical. The problem with markets is that they dont go up or down in a straight line and we have counter moves in a larger trend.
APPLE posted some great numbers in my opinion but as usual Wall Street wanted more and are pushing our futures down this morning, also Motorola truly disappointed with sales and profits compared to last year, another signal that the consumer might be showing crack in disposable spending.
Lets see how the day plays out and hope the devious situation noted above doesn't play out for the investing public. Doesn't matter to me what happens because I am not an investor but a trader. Oil seem to be forming a bear flag on the daily chart and looks lower intermediate term, although I am oil bull long term, these are examples of counter trends within the longer trend.
Earnings season is upon us here and might save the market if some heavy weight companies report excellent earnings but I am not holding my breath on that!!!

Powerful bounce

Said it before and will say it again I was buying the gap down if we gap down heavy. Wow that was the right call we are bouncing hard here. If you played the bounce I would be long gone here.

Rate cut! Will it help

Well just as predicted we have gotten a surprise rate cut of .75% by the FED. I am very scared when they did this 40 minutes ago as to me it signals panic as the FED meeting is scheduled to happen in 5 days from today, why not wait? The reason they can wait is the usual STUPIDITY of these people they put in charge of wall street firms and the FED. Why should the fed bail out people who make bad investments, WHY? This rate cut will have no effect!!!! none whatsoever.
Bernanke needs to step down as he can't analyze the situation and I blame these Wall Street crooks who constantly rape us and gain huge bonuses, then get bailed out. The next 3 days is going to be wild very wild, the FED should have not moved today, it is causing more panic than anything else.
Over the weekend I went to the bookstore to read this weekends Barron's. The cover showed 10 analysts predicting what would happen this year. Eight of them said the market would be up this year and one of the very popular ones Abbey Cownhead said the DOW would hit 14750 this year. That is Wall Street problem, we listen to these heads of large firm and put our trust and dollarss with them and we get burnt. The problem lies with the tradition of analysts who alwas thing bullish and say everything should go up.
M last note before the market opens is be cool and calm here and dont panic. This market is extremely tough to invest in so DONT. This is traders market and if you aren't a trader then stay in cash.

Possibilities

What are the possibilities here for the market to act irrational on the downside as it did on the upside. The Possibility or probability of irrational movement is 100%. Very often the market, swings to various degrees out of its mathematical technical means. This should be observed carefully because just like how we zoomed to 14000 on basically wall street telling us to buy buy buy future potential earning growth, we might just be entering a period where wall street is getting short and we exaggerate the move to the downside.
Now here is where it gets tricky. Nothing goes in a straight line as we know especially when it comes to the Markets. I believe the market will find a short term bottom within the next few sessions and bounce but as I said before it will be a tradeable rally. What is a tradeable rally? I refer to tradeable rallies, as market moves where you can go long for a period of time but take profits along the way as it wont be sustainable. The next bounce will be 100% shortable no matter how solid it looks.
Looking at my charts, I might be going out on a limb here to say that the S&P which is now 1325, looks venerable to test the low range of 1000. That's a pretty big hit from last years highs but if we look at the over exaggerated moves historically in the markets up and down it is not so far fetch that we might see 1000 on the S&P before we ever see new highs again.
S&P at a 1000 value might seem a bit harsh as we speak about it now but lets look when was the last time we were at 1000 on the S&P?. Anyone want yo guess? Well the last time was summer of 2003. So in retrospect we have moved nearly 60% in the S&P index over a 4 year period, that's an astonishing move, so let's not get scared when I say we can easily trade down back to these levels.
No matter what, most of the people I know read my blogs are traders and for that we dont care where the market goes, just that it has volatility so we can trade it but it is good to know where the long term trend line is so we get better trade it.
Where will the DOW be if we go back to S&P 1000, well it should also trade back to its Summer 2003 level which was 9300. Yep almost 3000 point lower than where we are today.

Stay tune because we will be following the market very closely tomorrow to see what happens.
DOW Futures are down 522 points at 8 PM Monday

Worst might be here tomorrow

As the US Markets are on holidays for the Martin Luther King holidays the overseas market are taking some heavy declines. The news out is related to our subprime market here in the US and the Bank of China preeminent announcement of a significant write down. As i am writing to thee blog the German DAX is down 7.2% and the Indian market down 7.5%. Those numbers are significant as a 7% decline in the DOW would translate to around 850 points.
As of 1:40 pm the DOW futures are down 400 points!!!!! but the most significant barometer, the S&P 500 is down 90 points!!!! All I can say is that tomorrow morning will be pretty or should I say very ugly if the futures stay at this level. Well seem we hit the nail right on its head, that of the markets going down a possible 750-1000 points but we will have to see how it plays out tomorrow.
Without a doubt I will be buying futures on any significant gap down as we should form some based tomorrow or wednesday as this should confirm the capitulation I have been noting in the Blog.
Let's see what opportunities lies on this bad news and take advantage of it and I will leave you with this.

IT IS NOT TIME TO BE AN INVESTOR BUT A TRADER.

Heard it here first 750-1000 point down down!!!!!!!!!

WOW

Wow i guess that wasn't all on the downside this morning on the ES. We are in crash and burn mode here again. market was up +180 now down 120 man oh man when will it stop. We scalped the ES here for 17 points on the downside but it was scary. Oil looks dead weak here and the OIH is down another $5. Somewhere soon i want to be stepping into some OIH calls. We will see soon enough

Cover trade

Cover ES here @1354.25 .
5 point profit in 25 minutes

Pre market trade

Short ES 1359.25

What will ultimately happen

Today at 1:30 PM I noted to one of my trading partners that the market would end at its lows for the day because the volume on the upticks were extremely weak. My best guess was for the Dow to end somewhere below the 12300 area but to my surprise the mounting present of the bears sold us off an additional 200 points. Chicago futures traders were on a mission to sell everything they had on paper and end the day at the lowest level in 15 months.
I hate to beat the horse again but this is a bear market! We are 2000 points below the highs in the Dow and the broad base Russell 2000 is now 20% below it summer 2007 highs. We are now seeing the spreading of the mortgage and derivative markets spread to areas of the economy that we thought was fool proof from the mortgage dilemma.
I hope I am totally wrong about this but I saw something today that scared me technically. Today I saw the indices drop the most percentage in months without the markets being in panic mode. This is alarming as I have been saying we must have some from of capitulation (panic selling) before we find a bottom. What is panic selling? Capitulation would be a significant sell climax in the markets where there is virtually no buying 'virtual panic selling' everyone wants to cash out.
We are closer and closer to this point in my opinion and although we might not get the 750-1000 points decline I predicted I still think it is very possible. Today I saw the four horsemen of tech get thrown out with everything else, especially the financials.
Financials are tech are key here because they are the leaders in the economy, some might say commodity based companies especially oil service stocks are now proving to be the leaders but I differ.
Technology and Financials are the leaders hands down and I do see alot more downside especially in tech.
As usual the big guys are manipulating the market and saved this drop in the market till after december so they could collect their record bonuses bt the last laugh might be on them if we head towards full recession as no one will be speared.
Tomorrow is the first option expiration for the year and might be the catalyst for one of two things, 1) more selling or 2)stabilization of some of the selling. M best guess is that next week we might sell hard, with tuesday and wednesday the days to watch for a flush out which should be buyable for a bounce.

OIH- potential set up

OIH - lets keep an eye on it. With a deepen pullback in the market and Oil , OIH have been on a pulback. Currentl is looks like it is setting up for a buy opportunity. I will make a note in m blog if i initiate a trade on it.

Just Ugly

Saying this again. DONT BE AN INVESTOR.
Google down $10 heading to my $550 downside
Apple below my target now at $159 sweet
FSLR wow $175 called it short @230 wow 3 weeks ago sweet.
BIDU down $15 today and now sub $280. wow.
Market is in death mode here and Bernanke talking isn't helping. It will talk alot of buying to get us out of this. STAY SHORT or stay out. Do not buy or pick bottoms.
We are oversold technically here but I think everyone is scared to play the bounce.

Beazer Homes might be closing down. I have no inside information but it seems they might have to declare Bankruptcy. Hmmmm who said that a home builder would go Bankrupt. MARKETJEDI!!!!!!!!

market weak

Well Bernanke is speaking and what the heck is he saying only he knows. Bernanke need to resign as Cramer would say he knows nothing. The FED seem to be non effective in this downturn and the are not in a position to now stop a recession from taking hold. Internals are not that bad but we traded below March 2007 lows which is technically damaging.

Merrill Lynch

Well here we go ago Merrill is writing down $14.2 Billion related to sub prime. Loans are being written down to 34 cent on the dollar, that s a pretty big write down if I should say so. Let's look at this more analytically. Today news makes market write down somewhere near $120 Billion wow, that's a lot of money in money heaven I wish i have 1% of it, well i regress!!! This has alot more to go and let's say this here and now if it wasn't for the Saudi Arabians and the Chinese infusing capital into these institution they would be BANKRUPT.
8:30 Housing numbers were horrible, housing starts for December was down 14.2% and back to 1993 levels. Obviously the economy is on fragile ground and we need to thread lightly. This morning Bernandke speaks at 10 am and it will be very interested to hear what he says in lieu of what happened this morning. I personally believe the FED Chairman should resign as he is too much of an academic to truly prove effective like Greenspan.
The nightmare has just begun to unravel and we will see in a couple of months how it turns out. This morning I was hoping for a gap up to short as yesterday was a very weak showing of the bulls, lets hope that Bernandke will talk us up so we can get short

Good Luck

End of Day

Well tech seem to be the early seller in the year. Today, BIDU down $25, Apple down $9, Google down $23 and I could go on. The solar stocks seem especially to be in sell mode and I expect more. Folks I can't reiterate how extremely hard a market it is to trade and news out there is that a number of hedge funds are minimizing trading here. With that said those who are trading can swing the market volatility around.
Lot of news lately from the bandwagonist saying market going lower but these were the same folks @14000 in september telling us we heading to 15000. Well I spoke it out loud then that we would hit 12500 on the Dow and 11800 next before ever even seeing 14500.
I think we are coming closer to a meaningful bounce which will set up some beautiful shorts such as GOOG, Apple etc. I think these stocks will go down hard when they finally flush us to the downside
Make no mistake about it, the derivative market in mortgages has totally collapsed. There is no secondary market left and those institutions that bet heavily on mortgages will surely have to keep those loans on their books for a couple of quarters. I think Citibank infusion of funds will not help and they will need additional infusion down the road. There will be no safe areas except ETF'S that are short based. Tech and Financials are the leaders and are showing broadbased weakness.
Today was a nice day to trade the ES futures and Oil if you were fast enough, it surely wasn't a day for those faith of heart and I wouldn't recommend trading a day like today without heavy trading experience and excellent direct access broker. Lets see what tomorrow will bring, we closed pretty weak and Ben Bernanke is talking tomorrow.

SOLF update

Solf now $18.62. !!!!!!!!!

SOLF

SOLF now officially a teenager!!!!!! $19.61 here was $25 two days ago when i recommended short. 20% profit in 2 days not bad at all.

Covering trade here +4 points.
9 point profit on the ES futures today. Was pretty fast

Trade triggered

ES short triggered @1379 using a 2 point stop here.

Market Trade

Nice 5 point profit there in the ES futures in the first 10 minutes of trading. Now i will be looking for a high probability trade as I am in profit protection mode. The best probability trade would be a trade to the ORB and short there.
Numbers are short ES @1379. If we dont trade towards that then i am done for the day. If you take it use a 2 point stop so at least 3 point profit is locked in for the day

Nice- Target hit

1388.5 here nice 5 point profit in 10 minutes here on that ES call.

Morning Trade

Futures traders watch the 1383.50 level on the high side if we break thru we could head to 1387 on the ES

Intel Disappoints

Well just to let everyone know I dont have inside information :). Wow I was dead on with that Intel call of lower margins. Intel is being punished as I write this pre market. Intel's failure to meet earnings and revenue forecast for the fourth quarter is not sitting well with tech investors. Intel is down 15% pre market to $19.85 and I wouldn't be surprised is Intel sees $15 this year.
This morning might be a very rough day for the markets, Overseas markets are down nearly 5%.
I guess i was wrong and right over my APPLE call in december. I noted the first week of Decemeber that Apple should trade back to $165 by end of december but i missed it by 2 weeks. I am still confident that the gambling stock will head alot lower and SOLF will be a $15 here soon, very soon.
Very rough market to trade in years here but if you on the right side you can make trades very profitable. I am still expecting a washout capitulation and a decent bounce as we are oversold with TRIN reading ending over 3 in a number of session since the start of the year.

Good luck

Market update

Market being cracked here and we heading towards the mentioned 1385 area now for testing on the S&P.-
APPLE getting totally crack here and as mentioned in December when it was $200 I said it should trade back to the $165 area where it just have. Google and BIDU will be under pressure here with the market retracing and I predict Google will be sub 550 very soon. I dont see Google being over $300 in the next 2 yrs but who knows.
Gambling stocks still under pressure and SOLF my stock to watch as a short is now down $4 wow. Yesterday when it was $25 i said it would soon be a teenager and so it will happen here in the coming days currently trading at $20 that was a quick play

Midday Update

Wow I guess i was right about SOLF headings back to the teens, it is down $2.50 already today. My call on the gambling stocks are also proving fruitful. MGM, WYNN are in a bloodbath today and I truly expect more. The news this morning of Citibank writing off $18 Billion can't be good for the markets and the economy.
Wholesale prices shot up by the largest amount in 26 years while retailers had their worst December in 5 years. Those who want to hide the fact that we in a recession or going into a deeper downturn are just dreaming. The housing market seem s like it will take a much longer time to recover and the market is now thinking the same.

TARGET TO WATCH:
Target to watch on the ES is 1385. A flush to this area will more than likely lead to a high percentage buy opportunity.

Really +171 point

Seems like 171 points isn't much these days. The Dow rose nearly 200 points with little excitement. Early sentiment from IBM on pre annnouncement of earnings served as a gap up and level off market. Todays range was narrow indeed which leads me to conclude that a move is still brewing which might happen tomorrow or wednesday.
AGU and MON seem to be moving higher and might prove to the be hot sector in the early 2008 trading. I am still in watch mode here as I believe we will get a move this week more than likely to the upside which will be short lived.
Last week I noted the weak showing for the gambling stocks and they continued today even with the market up almost 200 points. LVS and MGM can easily see 52 week lows from here while HET although at its 52 week high should follow the group down. Wait for these stocks to flag to get on board short.
Intel reports tomorrow and it will be interesting to see how they will spin the last quarter. Although I am not one to guess I believe chip manufacturer are under pricing pressures and Intel will show declining margins. AMD is totally dead in the water for the last two years and with APPLE using more Intel chips AMD market share should deteriorate over time. DELL is my top pick for a dud of the year award. I think HP and APPLE will slowly prove too much for Michael Dell's company in the future.

STOCK TO WATCH: SOLF
SOLF has been on a run lately with all the solar stocks. I think SOLF trades back into the teens easily. Look at some $20 puts to limit risk.

Week ahead

This week will be very interesting for traders. Talk in many financial publications over the weekend of increased probability of recession will leave many traders on the sidelines waiting to see what the Federal Reserve will do next week and how the Fed is perceiving the current economic conditions. Unemployment rate hit a two year high last week and most like myself think that the mortgage downturn will lead to more deterioration of the labor market and economy itself.
This week there are a few important numbers to look at, to see if the market can find some short term support and initiate some short covering. First number on my radar is the the 1396 number on the ES as minor support if we do break that 1400 level. Below that we can easily drift or capitulate towards 1375/1378 area. Please note i am not currently looking at my charts so these numbers aren't exact but rounded points of interests.

Oil should be in play this week as I think we are heading into the important spring change over of heavy to light sweet crude. Light sweet crude is much more refined and has a higher value because of this. Seasonality should play out in this commodity market and Oil should in a few weeks head higher as we move closer into the high driving season for the United States. Where does Oil go? best guess is that is challenges that $100 level and this time will have a better chance to breach it. I have been saying oil should touch $100 since 2003 and was ridiculed by fellow traders. Gold seem also to be setting up bull flags on each pullback and shows no signs presently of making any dramatic pullback without some outside influence such as strength in the US dollar or real slowdown of Global markets.

Monday look out for the first hour highs and lows and play the market accordingly. The first hour break should set the tone for the day but no mistake we could chop around till earnings season start or the Fed meeting next week. I still believe with the oversold conditions here we can bounce but market sentiment needs to be respected.

So does January goes! So does the year

Well as we enter the second week of trading for Wall Street we find ourselves in a downtrend left off by the mortgage news of 2007. Today NASDAQ is down 9 out of the last 11 days which now concretely confirms the worst start ever for the markets.
So does January goes! So does the year goes has been a time proven trend in the markets and if this is to be true as always we might be in a world of pain this year. I get asked all the time by people who know that i am a trader and Market lover as what will happen and to be honest I can only say that I dont feel confident based on technicals i see happening now in the market.
What should you do if you invest in 401K, investment accounts etc. I say God be with you in 2008 because i believe the least path of resistance is DOWN. Yes DOWN!
Nothing goes straight down and that must be noted, we should get short covering and periods where the talking heads come out and tell everyone everything is a OK. Well if you have confidence in giving these people your monies to grow and having your accounts year over year remain flat or negative and their bonuses rise to extraordinary levels well go ahead. For me I rather take my money and do the total opposite of what these guys are saying.
Yep the same people who told you to buy CountryWide @$20 because it is the biggest and safest mortgage brokers are the same ones now saying CountryWide @$5 will go bankrupt and will add no value to Bank of America, so take it with a grain of salt.
What will 2008 bring? well we will have to wait and see! right now the charts say we go lower and todays action lead me more on that side. The BIG MONEY is definitely short right now! and believe nothing else, they are lightening up positions because of the uncertainty in the market. Just look at BSC, LEH, TIF etc nothing but down.