New Years resolutions are something that people make to note their shortfalls. To that extent my list should be extensive :) indeed. I for one is very far from perfect or where I really want to be in life but I try my best to make the negatives turn into positives or motivate me to do better. This year I think will be another wild year in the market and if I can I wont get caught up in the swings and just stay focused. I guarantee one thing anytime Cramer or the top analysts come out and say this is the bottom I will be shorting without mercy. I do think we bounce and we might bounce violently because people dont want to miss the boat up BUT this bear market will last for years and I am projecting it should last till Nov 2009. Just a note just because a bear market ends doesn't been we will project higher and I want to make a strong note of that, we could just be a range for years, which is the scenario I think might happen.
Real Estate is dead and wont com back for a long time, just too much inventory, coupled with the weakening credit and rising unemployment housing will not have any traction for years.
Commercial Real Estate I think will be also come into the same situation as consumer real estate. The news of poor holiday sales will prove to be the nail in the coffin for commercial real estate and we might be seeing an end to the build a mall anyway mentality of developers as the consumer begins to save where they can. I have a KILLER trade on this and I will show a few of you how to profit from this.
One more area I think will continue to see weakness is Banking. GS, I think can trade to $30 a share and possibly lower before this is all over. GS will eventually be gone in a few quarters because they can't sustain in this market with their present business plan. My #1 play for 2009 was RIMM and it totally was a winner even before the year started. My long term play still stands as FAZ and I think it will prove to be a double when all is said and done.
Finally I hope most of you have been reading the blog deciphering the inner statements and using it and stop giving credence to these mutual funds etc who continue losing your funds. Arm yourself will analytical skills and you can do it better than any money manager out there (except me! as I want to manage your funds) :). I got a few ideas just like early last year which panned out great (remember FNM, Citibank, Wachovia, S&P). Got some here folks, wont let you down 2009 is going to be better than 2008 so saddle up.
Thursday, January 1, 2009
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