Wow unemployment figures are now 11.6% in California and most are saying the real numbers are closer to 15%. How could we be seeing higher unemployment and lower sales but the market Is moving higher. These are the underlining things you should be looking at to analyze where we are in the economic cycle.
The banks made profits virtually because of the zero interest rates from the FED and lending it to you at 25% on your credit cards and 5% on your mortgage, if they can't make money like that I dont know how else they can. Another important thing to look at in the banks is the trading of the toxic assets which they are allocating fees on and therefore making a profit on just shifting these toxic assets around, another manipulation of the musical chairs but the music will stop there soon and if they don't start lending again then they will move to losses again. The problems are deep and won't be corrected till the excesses are wrung out of the system.
Last week on CNBC they had on a real estate segment showing 2-3 yr old condos selling at 20% of the original asking prices but yet still they aren't being purchased because buyers can't get the mortgages from the banks. The banks are the problem and till they are FORCED to lend and stop lining their pockets with the taxpayers monies we will lengthen the recovery for the economy and it is that simple.
Next week I am going out on a limb here and say we will see lower prices. The moved here is a measure moved and we should see lower prices or as crazy as it might be higher prices a=on much lower volume. The trading days are so narrow it is like watching paint dry but as I said to some of you who email me it is tthe wave four pattern in the elliott wave so it excepted.
Stay put because we will soon get some wild volatility again to ride. I still except the bulls to defend the uptrend till July then after the bulls will take it by the horns again, so bulls have your fun, your time is limited!!!!!!
MARKETJEDI
Saturday, April 18, 2009
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