Monday, August 31, 2009
OIL-
What else can I say oil made it to its daily target of $75 given weeks ago and now it looks like it is dead. Nothing like technical analysis and it is proven here in Oil. I am surprised I missed the target on the S&P BY 4 points, I never been that far off before or maybe we will get one last push up, I definitely have to watch the action and see.
Thoughts on Market
We have been in a tight range for the last few weeks but I think we are definite in a position of forming an important top. Have we already hit the top I dont know but all of analysis is showing me we are in a toppy area. Sentiment have been extreemly bullish and we are know what that means!
Lets see what they want to do especially into the holidays but I think there is great risk reward going short here. If we have already made a high I only missed it by 4 points on the ES.
Lets see what they want to do especially into the holidays but I think there is great risk reward going short here. If we have already made a high I only missed it by 4 points on the ES.
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Wheat Update
The wheat market continues with its dowtrend. It appears that it traced out a corrective flat this week and is ready to resume selling.
I am not sure exactly what finished at the 486 L. I have had an intermediate (1) of (5) label, but it very well could be wave (3). My guess is that the pivot low is most likely wave (3).
Regardless, this downside structure is nearing completion if my interpretation is correct. I have introduced a new alternative count, which is a much more bearish count.
It has wheat in primary [3] currently. This count would portend much lower price. This view, I believe, is a lower probability outcome.
The first order of business is for price action to take out the 486 level. This would confirm that the corrective is indeed finished.
IF we have completed a 1 and 2 off the corrective 517.25 H, then we have minor degree targets at 475.25 (161.8% projection) and 453.25 (261.8% projection) respectively.
Primary targets include the 61.8% projection of [1] - [3] at 465.75, which is our minimum objective. [5] = [1] - [3] at 391.50.
Corn Update
The corn market remains in its downtrend.
It is unclear if corn has finished this corrective or not. I have left the retracement levels on the chart if price needs additional time and/or price to complete this counter trend move.
It is also possible that primary wave [4] needs additional work. A triangle could be tracing here. If so, this leg would appear to be (c). If a triangle, price should not exceed the 373 H.
Assuming that [4] is finished, the first order of business would be to break the 312 L. The first intermediate degree target is 279, which is where (3) = (1).
The minimum primary objective is the 61.8% projection of [1] - [3] at 278.125. [5] = [1] - [3] at 219.50.
Crude Update
The crude market pretty well followed my expectations for the week, although I thought that price would reach a little higher.
It appears that minuette (b) has finished at the 69.83 L, though not a certainty. We have a nice clean 5 wave structure up from that level, which I have labeled as sub-minuette i.
Once we have completed 5 sub-minuette degree waves up, we should finish (c), thus completing minute [b]. Minute [c] down should follow.
Notice how price was rejected at the corrective base channel.
Also notice the RSI divergence at the top of the micro [5]th. Exactly what should be expected with a 5th wave.
It appears that we have finished ii down and have started iii up in earnest. If [2] has completed, which is unclear at this point, we should enter the meat of (c)'s advance.
Near term, I expect price to follow through to the upside. We should see the completion of [b] later in the week.
(w) = (y) at 80.38. the minimum objective is the 61.8% of (w) at 75.25.
I'm anxious to see if they break price out to a new recovery (and yearly) high. This is at 76.56.
Friday, August 28, 2009
Crude Again- BINGO
Very nice reversal for crude off the morning lows. Volume was better than yesterday, but nothing to write home about. Range was $3.12.
There are several ways to label the structure down to the 69.83 L. More than likely it was a flat-x-zigzag, but it makes no difference. The important point is that I believe that minuette (b) has completed.
We are impulsing up, which is exactly what should be happening. My interpretation is that we are tracing a double zigzag for minute [b] wave. This should be the last (c) leg that will finish [b].
If this assessment is correct, we will see higher price, and possibly yearly highs. AB=CD at 77.85. Should we reach that level, we would attain new recovery rally highs.
Notice the nice hit of the 261.8% projection. We also sniffed the lower boundary of the daily channel.
RSI had a monster positive divergence at the 69.83 L.
It appears that we have finished micro [1] - [3] and are currently working on [4]. There is a chance that the degree's should be ratcheted up by one. I have the retracement ratios on the chart.
We should finish up [5] in quick order tomorrow that will complete sub-minuette i.
My channel assumes that [4] has made its low. There is a good chance it has not. I will adjust the channel if needed.
Thursday, August 27, 2009
The REAL Scam continues- Goldman
Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth William Galvin has subpoenaed Goldman Sachs for more information about its "trading huddles"--the internal meetings in which analysts produce near-term trading ideas that are given to the firm's proprietary traders and a select group of clients but not disseminated broadly.
Galvin's concern? This is selective dissemination that benefits Goldman and its biggest clients and screws everyone else.
Our guest Susanne Craig broke the Goldman story for the Wall Street Journal that led to Galvin's investigation. She thinks Goldman's "huddle" practice raises several important questions, such as whether the select group of clients are being "tipped" about future ratings changes.
If that is in fact what is happening--explicitly or implicitly--the practice should be investigated. But as a former Wall Street analyst, I think there is a much more important lesson here:
* It will never be a level playing field.
* The best clients of firms like Goldman Sachs will always get better information from to the firm's traders and analysts than small investors. Big investors will always get better access to companies than small investors. Big investors will always be able to afford better research, better analysis, and better trading systems than small investors. (Just one example: The facial expression of a CEO when asked a tough question is often more revealing than a hundred-page SEC filing).
* By implying that the playing field should or can be level, regulators encourage small investors to think that it usually is. This is crazy. The sooner small investors learn that the better.
Follow up on Article I posted -FDIC on Fumes
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090826/ap_on_bi_ge/us_fdic_shrinking_fund
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
BINGO- OIL
Bingo on Oil - $75 based on our analysis 3 weeks ago said should goto $75. we down to 70.70 hope you got a short off at $75 or close to !
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
CRUDE-BINGO
Bingo on the $75 we said we would hit - Now what?
Well I see big enough divergence here to poke it short @ $75 and will see what will happen in the next few days
Well I see big enough divergence here to poke it short @ $75 and will see what will happen in the next few days
Remember
Remember I am still expecting 1045/1054 range and maybe 1069 but that should be all she wrote.
We are getting closer and closer to these numbers so keep sharp, extra sharp.
We are getting closer and closer to these numbers so keep sharp, extra sharp.
ES
Market should make a pullback and I am looking for a test for that 1006 again and technically a break down to the last swing low of 976. I dont think the risk reward here is on the bulls side and therefore I would be more inclined to short
CRUDE
Getting some huge divergence on Crude here- If you are long I would be scaling or getting out.
Monday, August 24, 2009
AP sources: $2 trillion higher deficit projected
WASHINGTON - The Obama administration expects the federal deficit over the next decade to be $2 trillion bigger than previously estimated, White House officials said Friday, a setback for a president already facing a Congress and public wary over spending.
The new projection, to be announced on Tuesday, is for a cumulative 2010-2019 deficit of $9 trillion instead of the $7 trillion previously estimated. The new figure reflects slumping revenues from a worse economic picture than was expected earlier this year. The officials spoke only on the condition of anonymity ahead of next week's announcement.
Ten-year forecasts are volatile figures subject to change over time. But the higher number will likely create political difficulties for President Barack Obama in Congress and could create anxiety with foreign buyers of U.S. debt.
The new projection, to be announced on Tuesday, is for a cumulative 2010-2019 deficit of $9 trillion instead of the $7 trillion previously estimated. The new figure reflects slumping revenues from a worse economic picture than was expected earlier this year. The officials spoke only on the condition of anonymity ahead of next week's announcement.
Ten-year forecasts are volatile figures subject to change over time. But the higher number will likely create political difficulties for President Barack Obama in Congress and could create anxiety with foreign buyers of U.S. debt.
Goldman at it again
NEW YORK – Goldman Sachs Group Inc. provides some of its biggest clients stock tips that come out of regular meetings held by analysts and traders at the investment bank, according to a Wall Street Journal report.
Some of the analysts' views, which can provide insight on potential short-term market movements, can differ from research notes Goldman widely distributes to its clients, the Journal reported. Critics claim providing the early information to only certain clients hurts customers who aren't given the opportunity to trade on the ideas that come out of the meetings.
Brokerage firms have the right to share their information with various clients as they wish, so long as their analysts' stock recommendations distributed publicly don't contradict what they say internally, said Donald Langevoort, a former Securities and Exchange Commission special counsel who teaches securities law at Georgetown University.
Goldman's compliance officers sit in on the meetings, according to the report.
"My guess is the lawyers (at Goldman) have looked closely at this" and determined it doesn't violate securities laws or rules, Langevoort said. "Nobody on this phone call wants to get into an insider-trading situation."
The Journal quotes Goldman's stock research head, Steven Strongin, as saying no one gains an unfair advantage from the meeting and that the short-term ideas do not contradict the long-term forecasts in written research notes.
Clashing short-term and long-term opinions from the same firm is an issue the securities industry's self-regulating body, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, is currently reviewing as part of its rule requiring "fair dealing" with clients.
A Finra spokesman said the group is currently reviewing comments about a proposed rule that would clarify disclosure obligations allowing firms more flexibility in how they provide views on a stock.
"It's more of a gray area than a black-and-white area," said John Coffee, a professor of securities law at Columbia University.
The "fair dealing" rule for investment firms "hasn't really been applied very strictly," Coffee said. To make a case that the meetings violated rules, regulators would have to show that a firm "systematically" ensured that certain clients received the information before others, he said.
The tips at Goldman come out of meetings, called "trading huddles," the Journal report said. However, very few of Goldman's thousands of clients who get written research from the bank receive recommendations from the huddles, according to the Journal.
The Journal said, citing participants of the huddles, that the meetings can last up to about an hour. At the meetings, analysts bring trading ideas and Goldman's traders talk about financial markets and what could trigger movements in specific stocks.
Employees then call and provide the information to top clients, while in-house traders cannot use the tips until after they've been given to customers, the report said.
Recommendations from the meetings usually remain in effect for a week, according to the Journal.
A Goldman spokesman didn't return messages seeking comment. A spokesman from the SEC had no immediate comment.
Some of the analysts' views, which can provide insight on potential short-term market movements, can differ from research notes Goldman widely distributes to its clients, the Journal reported. Critics claim providing the early information to only certain clients hurts customers who aren't given the opportunity to trade on the ideas that come out of the meetings.
Brokerage firms have the right to share their information with various clients as they wish, so long as their analysts' stock recommendations distributed publicly don't contradict what they say internally, said Donald Langevoort, a former Securities and Exchange Commission special counsel who teaches securities law at Georgetown University.
Goldman's compliance officers sit in on the meetings, according to the report.
"My guess is the lawyers (at Goldman) have looked closely at this" and determined it doesn't violate securities laws or rules, Langevoort said. "Nobody on this phone call wants to get into an insider-trading situation."
The Journal quotes Goldman's stock research head, Steven Strongin, as saying no one gains an unfair advantage from the meeting and that the short-term ideas do not contradict the long-term forecasts in written research notes.
Clashing short-term and long-term opinions from the same firm is an issue the securities industry's self-regulating body, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, is currently reviewing as part of its rule requiring "fair dealing" with clients.
A Finra spokesman said the group is currently reviewing comments about a proposed rule that would clarify disclosure obligations allowing firms more flexibility in how they provide views on a stock.
"It's more of a gray area than a black-and-white area," said John Coffee, a professor of securities law at Columbia University.
The "fair dealing" rule for investment firms "hasn't really been applied very strictly," Coffee said. To make a case that the meetings violated rules, regulators would have to show that a firm "systematically" ensured that certain clients received the information before others, he said.
The tips at Goldman come out of meetings, called "trading huddles," the Journal report said. However, very few of Goldman's thousands of clients who get written research from the bank receive recommendations from the huddles, according to the Journal.
The Journal said, citing participants of the huddles, that the meetings can last up to about an hour. At the meetings, analysts bring trading ideas and Goldman's traders talk about financial markets and what could trigger movements in specific stocks.
Employees then call and provide the information to top clients, while in-house traders cannot use the tips until after they've been given to customers, the report said.
Recommendations from the meetings usually remain in effect for a week, according to the Journal.
A Goldman spokesman didn't return messages seeking comment. A spokesman from the SEC had no immediate comment.
Friday, August 21, 2009
Out
Out that 1025 short+3
Easy $1 on that oil short if you were following the charts.
Have a great weekend!!!!!!!
Easy $1 on that oil short if you were following the charts.
Have a great weekend!!!!!!!
Finally---1022 area
Said it yesterday look for 1022 but most importantly we at the 1023 area we outlined weeks ago should be a target for the market. Now do we hit our 1045/55 area???
GO Crude
This is the reason short is not the way to go fully on Crude. Based on the analysis done on August 9 crude daily project is around $75.
Recap:
http://marketjedi.blogspot.com/2009/08/crude-update.html
Recap:
http://marketjedi.blogspot.com/2009/08/crude-update.html
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Crude
Right now crude is the best market out there to trade. If you are a technical trader this market provide huge opportunities and ample liquidity
BINGO
BINGO closed @1006. Looking at the wave being completely here it seems if we break out this 1006 area higher 1021 is the target.
1006 just a magical number here. Volume was much less than yesterday
1006 just a magical number here. Volume was much less than yesterday
40 mins to go
40 Mins to go and we are sitting right @ 1006- looks like it wants higher but who knows. All I know 1006 is a critical number in play for the last couple of days
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Crude
Seem we want that 73.09 today from Sundays analysis. Awesome move there
recap below from August 9th:
http://marketjedi.blogspot.com/2009/08/crude-analysis-update.html.
Now the question is do we attack $79
recap below from August 9th:
http://marketjedi.blogspot.com/2009/08/crude-analysis-update.html.
Now the question is do we attack $79
Stock plays
As soon as the summer is done I will be posting a few stock plays. Volume is just too light in summer to look at individual stocks
Structure
Come on market just play out the structure and let me feel good that I got it correctly. Easy to move the market if you are a big player as volume is extremely light....
Nasdaq
With exactly 2 weeks left in the month the Nasdaq is tracking to be down the worst month since February 2009.
China
China's market is down 4% overnight and down 15% in the last 3 days.
WOW- Is that a signal for us ????
WOW- Is that a signal for us ????
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Pathetic Volume
We bounced today but volume was 20% less than the 3 month average. Be careful if you are long
Dollar bounce
On Monday the U.S. Dollar posted strong gains against most major Forex markets with the exception of the Japanese Yen as investors exited higher yielding assets following an overnight sell-off in the Chinese equity markets.
Early this morning Japan reported economic growth in the second quarter that was below expectations but nonetheless signaled an end to the recession. This news wasn't good enough for investors as they want to see sustainable evidence that a recovery is indeed taking place.
Asian markets sold off after the news from Japan with the Chinese market leading the way. Traders have also become concerned about the Chinese economy. For months China has been used as a barometer for global economic growth. Its stimulus plan has led to increased demand for commodities as well as increased stock market and loan activity. Problems could arise if Chinese regulators decide to tighten up lending and curtail excessive speculation.
If China's economy begins to decline and the U.S. recovery progresses at a slower pace than estimated then look for investors to continue to curtail demand for higher yielding assets. Based on how the Australian Dollar performed today, traders may already be lightening up positions in anticipation of this scenario taking place.
The EUR USD fell sharply lower as traders renewed selling pressure on the Euro which began following the last European Central Bank meeting on August 6th. Last week's news that the French and German economies posted gains during the second quarter has been largely ignored by investors who instead have chosen to become more averse to higher yielding assets.
News that U.K. homeowners were lowering asking prices helped pressure the already weak British Pound. The GBP USD has been selling off since the Bank of England decided to expand its quantitative easing program at its last meeting on August 6th. Furthermore comments from BoE Governor King have not been very positive. Most of them have centered on the existence of the global recession. All of this is encouraging selling of the Pound as traders are losing confidence that the U.K. economy is on the path to recovery.
Lower equity and energy prices continued to pressure the Canadian Dollar. News that China's economy may be slowing could hurt Canadian exports. The USD CAD once again rallied sharply higher in a continuation of the move which began the week ending August 7th when the Canadian government announced a surprise increase in the number of unemployed. Technical and fundamental factors are both exerting a bullish influence on the USD CAD.
The sell-off in the AUD USD was the strongest sign that demand for higher yielding assets may be coming to an end. Late last week the Australian Dollar posted a new high for the year without any follow-through. In addition, this market closed lower for the week, setting up a bearish closing price reversal top. When China's market collapsed overnight, the closing price reversal formation was confirmed. The charts indicate there is plenty of room on the downside.
The USD JPY lost ground today as Japanese investors pulled money out of higher risk assets and repatriated their funds. Investment firms that borrowed in Yen to finance the rally in the stock market also used sales proceeds to repay these loans. Look for the Yen to continue to post gains as long as investors remain averse to risk. Gains could be limited however if the Bank of Japan decides a high priced Yen will curtail demand for Japanese exports.
Early this morning Japan reported economic growth in the second quarter that was below expectations but nonetheless signaled an end to the recession. This news wasn't good enough for investors as they want to see sustainable evidence that a recovery is indeed taking place.
Asian markets sold off after the news from Japan with the Chinese market leading the way. Traders have also become concerned about the Chinese economy. For months China has been used as a barometer for global economic growth. Its stimulus plan has led to increased demand for commodities as well as increased stock market and loan activity. Problems could arise if Chinese regulators decide to tighten up lending and curtail excessive speculation.
If China's economy begins to decline and the U.S. recovery progresses at a slower pace than estimated then look for investors to continue to curtail demand for higher yielding assets. Based on how the Australian Dollar performed today, traders may already be lightening up positions in anticipation of this scenario taking place.
The EUR USD fell sharply lower as traders renewed selling pressure on the Euro which began following the last European Central Bank meeting on August 6th. Last week's news that the French and German economies posted gains during the second quarter has been largely ignored by investors who instead have chosen to become more averse to higher yielding assets.
News that U.K. homeowners were lowering asking prices helped pressure the already weak British Pound. The GBP USD has been selling off since the Bank of England decided to expand its quantitative easing program at its last meeting on August 6th. Furthermore comments from BoE Governor King have not been very positive. Most of them have centered on the existence of the global recession. All of this is encouraging selling of the Pound as traders are losing confidence that the U.K. economy is on the path to recovery.
Lower equity and energy prices continued to pressure the Canadian Dollar. News that China's economy may be slowing could hurt Canadian exports. The USD CAD once again rallied sharply higher in a continuation of the move which began the week ending August 7th when the Canadian government announced a surprise increase in the number of unemployed. Technical and fundamental factors are both exerting a bullish influence on the USD CAD.
The sell-off in the AUD USD was the strongest sign that demand for higher yielding assets may be coming to an end. Late last week the Australian Dollar posted a new high for the year without any follow-through. In addition, this market closed lower for the week, setting up a bearish closing price reversal top. When China's market collapsed overnight, the closing price reversal formation was confirmed. The charts indicate there is plenty of room on the downside.
The USD JPY lost ground today as Japanese investors pulled money out of higher risk assets and repatriated their funds. Investment firms that borrowed in Yen to finance the rally in the stock market also used sales proceeds to repay these loans. Look for the Yen to continue to post gains as long as investors remain averse to risk. Gains could be limited however if the Bank of Japan decides a high priced Yen will curtail demand for Japanese exports.
S&P
S&P Futures point of control is now 998.25, while that 1007 area is the area High on a monthly basis. Let's see if that area proves to be resistance again or the POC stops us
Monday, August 17, 2009
Watch the close
watch if the protection team comes in to alleviate this downturn or do we close at the lows of the day.
If we do close at the lows of the day expect us tomorrow to open down and find some support and reverse. A plunge protection team play at the end of day would leave me looking at the overnight session for some real direction.
MARKETJEDI
If we do close at the lows of the day expect us tomorrow to open down and find some support and reverse. A plunge protection team play at the end of day would leave me looking at the overnight session for some real direction.
MARKETJEDI
Dollar bounce still in effect
Dollar still bouncing from the bottom technically analyzed last two week. It was greatly oversold and the bounce is only technical in nature
Soybeans
WOW soybeans really getting cracked here- Remember I said this might be the trade of the year short
BADDA BING
HEHEHE BADDA BING- What did our analysis say "a High the first week of AUgust +/- a week" seem to be DEAD ON.
Now the head and shoulder measures down to 873 so watch for that number.
Also BINGO on that Oil break down.
Also DEATH for Soybeans, Corn and Wheat.
ROCKING --
Now the head and shoulder measures down to 873 so watch for that number.
Also BINGO on that Oil break down.
Also DEATH for Soybeans, Corn and Wheat.
ROCKING --
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Another important number
S&P has another important number @1025. Do we get another pivot point development or do we get a bearish butterfly.
984 is still a number to look at on the downside a break of that means the downside is now the trend and prove that 1006 was the pivot point for the bull and bears.
984 is still a number to look at on the downside a break of that means the downside is now the trend and prove that 1006 was the pivot point for the bull and bears.
longer Outlook
Once in awhile i like to look on very large time frame charts to see where we might be in 3-5 yrs based on my cycle and fibonacci analysis here is a few things I see:
Oil look alot lower, that might seem strange as I think the dollar will get weaker but the only way that would be correct is if we enter a period of server deflation.
Grains also looks lower on a longer time frame.
Bond ditto.
S&P ditto.
I hope I am wrong on all these but it seems deflation will be our enemy and all asset classes will decline over the medium to long term. I hope I am wrong on this because massive deflation is a sign of depressionary period as people sell assets at any prices. Is what is going on in Real Estate a precursor to a big picture analysis, we can only watch, wait and pray.
MARKETJEDI
Oil look alot lower, that might seem strange as I think the dollar will get weaker but the only way that would be correct is if we enter a period of server deflation.
Grains also looks lower on a longer time frame.
Bond ditto.
S&P ditto.
I hope I am wrong on all these but it seems deflation will be our enemy and all asset classes will decline over the medium to long term. I hope I am wrong on this because massive deflation is a sign of depressionary period as people sell assets at any prices. Is what is going on in Real Estate a precursor to a big picture analysis, we can only watch, wait and pray.
MARKETJEDI
Crude Analysis Update
It appears that sub [b] has completed. Notice the break of the mid-line of the channel that had supported for a couple of days.
Price came within a whisker of the 23.6% retracement level of minor A. [c] = [a] at 57.39. The first little daily swing projects to 62.03, which is very close to the 38.2% retracement. All basis continuous contract.
Don't be surprised if they turn a triangle here. It has all the makings so far.
Saturday, August 15, 2009
Soybeans Update
The bean market sold off hard on Thursday and Friday. I'm still not convinced that my original count is wrong. Check out the new near month, which is November.
The price action off the 1113.25 H looks very impulsive to me. This implies that minor 5 finished, therefore, arguing that the top is in.
Notice that the mid-line on the channel could not hold as support. This further supports that minor 5 finished (or that this was nothing more than a primary [2]nd and the continuous contract screwed us!).
Let's see what price action brings early next week before we make that decision. The problem I have is that the intra-day squiggles are very unclear on the leg that would complete 5.
If this is still minor 4, then price needs to find support soon. The 50% retracement of 3 is around 1005, while the 61.8% is at 981.50. I really don't want price to break the 50%, however, the line in the sand is 940.50, which is the high of 1.
CORN Update
The corn market continued its downtrend this week after taking a couple days to trace out an intermediate (2) wave.
If correct in my assessment, then the corn market should see some acceleration to the downside soon as it enters its (3)rd.
Price needs to take out 317.25, which should lock in (2)'s high for now. The next level of importance would be the 304 L, which is the bottom of primary [3].
[5] = [1] - [3] at 211.25. [5] = .618 of [1] - [3] at about 270, which is the minimum we should expect.
Friday, August 14, 2009
1006 SCARY
So I mentioned that number this morning as the pivot point and looked where we closed 1005.80 (1006). The point I made this morning is exactly what I have been saying we are just in a range =/- 10 points on the pivot point for most of August so far. Actually the S&P has been trading in a 30 point range for the last 2 weeks.
1006, 1006 very very important. Remember when we had that 775 number I believe.
I guess we will see next week-
MARKETJEDI
1006, 1006 very very important. Remember when we had that 775 number I believe.
I guess we will see next week-
MARKETJEDI
Bye Bye Oil
Technical at work again- failure to get over that last swing high last week the sell signal on that beast-
67.60 is the 61.8 Fibonacci
67.60 is the 61.8 Fibonacci
ANother bank failure!!
Well folks I had a feeling Colonial bank would be in trouble after I saw some report days ago that Bank of America was suing them for $1 Billion. I was like no way they can survive such a lawsuit and now the news just surfacing is Colonial is on the brink of failure.
This would be the largest bank failure this year
I thought everything was grand again???
(BEING SARCASTIC)
This would be the largest bank failure this year
I thought everything was grand again???
(BEING SARCASTIC)
1006
Well 1006 proving to be a pivot point as was analyzed last week- Notice we are either selling off when we dip below that area or buying if we break but the break higher/lower is about 10 points either way.
In my opinion technically we either well off harder on a break of the lower bracket which would be 996 or we break higher on a break above the high bracket of 1015/16
Well will see soon enough- If you reading the blog you know where I think we should go!!!!
In my opinion technically we either well off harder on a break of the lower bracket which would be 996 or we break higher on a break above the high bracket of 1015/16
Well will see soon enough- If you reading the blog you know where I think we should go!!!!
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Crude had a beautiful day going for awhile - before giving most of it up. Range was $2.16 and volume finished slightly less than yesterday.
This is a 4 hour chart. I needed to show a bigger chart to be able to get this whole mess of a (iv) on it.
If we use the 68.71 L as the end of minuette (iv), then we can actually get 5 waves up. This is not without issues folks. As talked about in last nights update, we do have minor overlap.
I have today's high of 72.21 labeled as sub-minuette i. This high could however, finish off minute [c]. I don't think so - but it is possible.
I will assume that ii has completed, this makes iii = i at 73.54. The 61.8% projection of i - iii is at 74.59.
Global Wealth destroyed by 45%
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Private equity company Blackstone Group LP (BX.N) CEO Stephen Schwarzman said on Tuesday that up to 45 percent of the world's wealth has been destroyed by the global credit crisis.
"Between 40 and 45 percent of the world's wealth has been destroyed in little less than a year and a half," Schwarzman told an audience at the Japan Society. "This is absolutely unprecedented in our lifetime."
But the U.S. government is committed to the preservation of financial institutions, he said, and will do whatever it takes to restart the economy.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner plans to unfreeze credit markets through a new program that will combine public and private capital in a fund that would buy bank toxic assets of up to $1 trillion.
"In all likelihood, that will have the private sector buy troubled assets to clean the banks out in terms of providing leverage ... so that we can get more money back into the banking system," Schwarzman said.
He expects the private sector to end up making "some good money doing that," but added there were complex issues on how to price toxic assets.
He put part of the blame for the financial crisis to credit rating agencies.
"What's pretty clear is that, if you were looking for one culprit out of the many, many, many culprits, you have to point your finger at the rating agencies," he said.
Rating companies have been the focus of intense criticism for their role in granting top "AAA" ratings for complex bonds that later plummeted in value, resulting in subsequent rating cuts, in many cases to junk status.
"Once you bought into ... the Triple A paper and it turned out to be paper that was in many situations going to end up defaulting, then you really had the makings of a global problem," he said.
Schwarzman said problems were then exacerbated by mark-to- market accounting rules. Those rules ask banks and other financial institutions to price assets at a value related to how they would be sold in the open market.
Blackstone reported a quarterly loss in February after writing down the value of its portfolio and eliminated its fourth-quarter dividend.
Asked where was a good place to invest, Schwarzman said it made sense to buy cyclical names, which are less exposed to the economic cycles.
He said investors also may find value in debt products, including "senior layers of certain securitizations," where investors can see 15 percent to 20 percent returns, he said.
Geographically, he said there were "pockets of strength" in China, which is committed to getting to an 8 percent growth level, and in India, where the economy is slowing but banks are in good shape
"Between 40 and 45 percent of the world's wealth has been destroyed in little less than a year and a half," Schwarzman told an audience at the Japan Society. "This is absolutely unprecedented in our lifetime."
But the U.S. government is committed to the preservation of financial institutions, he said, and will do whatever it takes to restart the economy.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner plans to unfreeze credit markets through a new program that will combine public and private capital in a fund that would buy bank toxic assets of up to $1 trillion.
"In all likelihood, that will have the private sector buy troubled assets to clean the banks out in terms of providing leverage ... so that we can get more money back into the banking system," Schwarzman said.
He expects the private sector to end up making "some good money doing that," but added there were complex issues on how to price toxic assets.
He put part of the blame for the financial crisis to credit rating agencies.
"What's pretty clear is that, if you were looking for one culprit out of the many, many, many culprits, you have to point your finger at the rating agencies," he said.
Rating companies have been the focus of intense criticism for their role in granting top "AAA" ratings for complex bonds that later plummeted in value, resulting in subsequent rating cuts, in many cases to junk status.
"Once you bought into ... the Triple A paper and it turned out to be paper that was in many situations going to end up defaulting, then you really had the makings of a global problem," he said.
Schwarzman said problems were then exacerbated by mark-to- market accounting rules. Those rules ask banks and other financial institutions to price assets at a value related to how they would be sold in the open market.
Blackstone reported a quarterly loss in February after writing down the value of its portfolio and eliminated its fourth-quarter dividend.
Asked where was a good place to invest, Schwarzman said it made sense to buy cyclical names, which are less exposed to the economic cycles.
He said investors also may find value in debt products, including "senior layers of certain securitizations," where investors can see 15 percent to 20 percent returns, he said.
Geographically, he said there were "pockets of strength" in China, which is committed to getting to an 8 percent growth level, and in India, where the economy is slowing but banks are in good shape
Crude Oil
It appears that we have impulsive price action. The only wrinkle is that there is slight overlap on the initial move off of the 68.84 L, however, not on a close basis.
I will assume that (iv) has finally finished until proven otherwise.
There are a couple of ways to count this initial impulse. I show sub-minuette i ending at the 71.13 H. It is quite possible that it actually completed at the 70.88 H with a truncated 5th, as shown as my alternate.
iii = i at 72.06. iii = 1.618 of i at 73.48. If correct in my assessment of structure, we should see price start to accelerate to the upside as it hits its wave iii.
Crude is setting up to finish its minor C leg. This should time fairly well with the dollar completing its 2nd wave.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Bank need more capital???
Seem JP Morgan is seeking more capital to sure up its books. They are selling 23 properties which will be the largest commercial real estate transaction this year.
Now if JP Morgan has to do that, I am really and truly questioning anything these banks say about their books. GE lying now JP Morgan selling assets, definitely these financials are still on rocky grounds.
Now if JP Morgan has to do that, I am really and truly questioning anything these banks say about their books. GE lying now JP Morgan selling assets, definitely these financials are still on rocky grounds.
DEAD DAY
Remember today is FED announcement. Coupled with summer August action I can guarantee that volume will be extremely low
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Confused
I hear analysts coming on the media saying we are in a new bull market, then I hear some saying we in a bull market but we at the 50% retracement from the highs to lows on the nasdaq, which is rubbish if it is a 50% retracement here you can't call it a bull market (IDIOTS).
Well all I know the market looks extremely tired and volume looks weak ( remember August is a holiday month in Europe) so that could be the reason.
Anyways 1006/7 number on the S&P seem to have been a decent place to short- Got that number all over the place that's why i have been talking about it for the last 2 weeks. My only serious problem with it is that it went over a few points which leaves me wondering. Well just very short term because I think we still go a little higher.
Well all I know the market looks extremely tired and volume looks weak ( remember August is a holiday month in Europe) so that could be the reason.
Anyways 1006/7 number on the S&P seem to have been a decent place to short- Got that number all over the place that's why i have been talking about it for the last 2 weeks. My only serious problem with it is that it went over a few points which leaves me wondering. Well just very short term because I think we still go a little higher.
Monday, August 10, 2009
Today boring action
ES finished the day positive, thanks to an end of day push. Range was awful at 9.5 handles. Even worse was volume, the second lowest volume day of the year.
I have no clue where the count is. This [v] wave has been absolutely maddening to figure out.
It does appear that we completed a nice zigzag off of the 1016 H. Perhaps we get a double zigzag down to start off minor B.
It wasn't a surprise that price rejected, however temporary, at 1007.75. It appears that the leg off the 998.25 L can count as a 5. This suggests that the retrace will be a zigzag, more than likely of sub-minuette degree.
There is also the chance that this stupid [v] wave has yet to complete.
I continue to believe that we are in a topping process. Everything from structure, momentum, breath and everything in between says we are due a retrace from the big advance off the 865.25 L. It's coming whether you want it to or not.
The big's were really non-committal until the last 4 minutes of trade.
One thing is for sure, we are short-term overbought
There is much talk lately about how the Federal Reserve is funneling money through the big banks to prop up the equity markets. They accomplish this through their Open Market Operations, both Permanent (POMO) and Temporary (TOMO).
When they purchase Treasury securities from these selected dealers, which range from $1.5B - $7.5B, the capital infusion allows them to leverage the money and basically ramp the markets.
It makes all the sense in the world to me. Whether you believe that or not, there is a high correlation to positive closing days and the Fed's OMO's.
GE FRAUD
This was from last week but I guess it missed my readings but GE is being investigated by the government because of fraudulent earnings reports.
If GE is doing it I wonder who else is ?
If GE is doing it I wonder who else is ?
Sugar highest levels in 28 yrs
Another commodity running- These underlining prices are the beginning of the future inflationary period we will see. Remember when these commodities value start to increase, basic food prices will surely rise at an alarming rate.
The price of raw sugar has increased to its highest level since March 1981, as supply concerns grow.
Raw sugar futures added 3% on Monday, to 21.55 cents a pound.
"The main problem is a deficit in sugar supplies," said Nick Penney, a trader with Sucden Financial, a firm that focuses on sugar trading.
Growing demand in Brazil for sugar to be turned into ethanol, coupled with a sharp fall in Indian production, have both prompted worries, he explained.
Sugar production in India for 2008-09 fell 45% year-on-year, according to a report by Sucden.
And a "drastic fall" is expected for the coming Indian crop, it said.
India had less rain in the monsoon season and it was also uneven, damaging a number of agricultural crops.
There are concerns that the pending sugar crop, which will be ready around November, will be inadequate.
The price of raw sugar has increased to its highest level since March 1981, as supply concerns grow.
Raw sugar futures added 3% on Monday, to 21.55 cents a pound.
"The main problem is a deficit in sugar supplies," said Nick Penney, a trader with Sucden Financial, a firm that focuses on sugar trading.
Growing demand in Brazil for sugar to be turned into ethanol, coupled with a sharp fall in Indian production, have both prompted worries, he explained.
Sugar production in India for 2008-09 fell 45% year-on-year, according to a report by Sucden.
And a "drastic fall" is expected for the coming Indian crop, it said.
India had less rain in the monsoon season and it was also uneven, damaging a number of agricultural crops.
There are concerns that the pending sugar crop, which will be ready around November, will be inadequate.
Dollar
Dollar still bouncing from its oversold status.
Note Oil is not selling off here, showing the immediate uptrend on that commodity.
Note Oil is not selling off here, showing the immediate uptrend on that commodity.
Sunday, August 9, 2009
Crude Update
Consolidation was the order of the last week.
My view remains that crude is tracing out a minute [c] leg to finish off minor B.
I'm still assuming that price reaches the daily projection around 75. This should be a significant resistance area, as the 127.2% projection of [a] and the June highs are right there as well.
I will be watching the dollar and how Oil reacts this week
My view remains that crude is tracing out a minute [c] leg to finish off minor B.
I'm still assuming that price reaches the daily projection around 75. This should be a significant resistance area, as the 127.2% projection of [a] and the June highs are right there as well.
I will be watching the dollar and how Oil reacts this week
Corn Update
CORN The corn market pushed hard to the downside like wheat.
Price reached the 38.2% retracement level, which is a common retracement level for a 4th wave, before being turned back. Also, notice the nice alternation with wave [2].
At this stage, price action needs to take out the 304 L, which I'm confident will happen. Downside targets include 270, which is the 61.8% projection of [1] - [3] . The 2:1 of a sits at 266.50.
Price reached the 38.2% retracement level, which is a common retracement level for a 4th wave, before being turned back. Also, notice the nice alternation with wave [2].
At this stage, price action needs to take out the 304 L, which I'm confident will happen. Downside targets include 270, which is the 61.8% projection of [1] - [3] . The 2:1 of a sits at 266.50.
Cycle High
Cycle hi is due early this week. Lets see if we do hit this week.
I am also getting some new projections up to the 1067 area but I am still holding to my previous mid 1000 area but would not be surprised if we ultimately overshoot.
I am also getting some new projections up to the 1067 area but I am still holding to my previous mid 1000 area but would not be surprised if we ultimately overshoot.
Friday, August 7, 2009
Target Above
Remember the ultimate target above is 1045/54. The closer we get to that area I will do some analysis and narrow down the range if needed. We just blew through the 1006 resistance area and there is no real resistance till 1026.75.
Hmm going as planned here- High while Congress is on break and out cycle high should be first week +/-1 week.
Have a great weekend
Hmm going as planned here- High while Congress is on break and out cycle high should be first week +/-1 week.
Have a great weekend
Fibonacci
For those who dont believe in technical analysis here is proof again it works dead on!!!
1013 was the 261.80% of this morning first swing high after 10am. dead accurate !!
1013 was the 261.80% of this morning first swing high after 10am. dead accurate !!
Dollar BOOM
Man oh man called this one perfect and totally angry i didn't take a position on it .
RRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGGG.
Note the anomaly going on!!!! Dollar up, commodity up, market up..
Very interesting day
RRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGGG.
Note the anomaly going on!!!! Dollar up, commodity up, market up..
Very interesting day
FED Laundering money !!!!!!!!
Fed Laundering Money through the Big Banks Into the Stock Market
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is a man who knows how Washington works and uses that knowledge to great effect. His appearances on Capital Hill are always worth watching. He sits politely with his hands folded in front of him playing the bashful professor while one one preening congressman after another makes a fool out of themself. In contrast, Bernanke looks like a modest and thoughtful academic faithfully upholding the public's trust. But things aren't always as they seem. The Fed chief is sticking it to the American people big-time and no one seems to have any idea of what's really going on. Former hedge fund manager Andy Kessler sums it up in a recent Wall Street Journal article, "The Bernanke Market". Here's a clip:
"By buying U.S. Treasuries and mortgages to increase the monetary base by $1 trillion, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke didn't put money directly into the stock market but he didn't have to. With nowhere else to go, except maybe commodities, inflows into the stock market have been on a tear. Stock and bond funds saw net inflows of close to $150 billion since January. The dollars he cranked out didn't go into the hard economy, but instead into tradable assets. In other words, Ben Bernanke has been the market."
What does it mean?
It means the revered professor Bernanke figured out a way to circumvent Congress and dump more than a trillion dollars into the stock market by laundering the money through the big banks and other failing financial institutions. As Kessler suggests, Bernanke knew the liquidity would pop up in the equities market, thus, building the equity position of the banks so they wouldn't have to grovel to Congress for another TARP-like bailout. Bernanke's actions demonstrate his contempt for the democratic process. The Fed sees itself as a government-unto-itself.
Over at Zero Hedge, Tyler Durden did the math and figured that the recent 45% surge in the S&P 500 had nothing to do with the fictional economic "recovery", but was just more of the Fed's hanky panky. Durden noticed that the money that's been sluicing into stocks hasn't (correspondingly) depleted the money markets. That's the clue that led him to the truth about Bernanke's 6 month stock rally.
Zero Hedge: "Most interesting is the correlation between Money Market totals and the listed stock value since the March lows: a $2.7 trillion move in equities was accompanied by a less than $400 billion reduction in Money Market accounts!
Where, may we ask, did the balance of $2.3 trillion in purchasing power come from? Why the Federal Reserve of course, which directly and indirectly subsidized U.S. banks (and foreign ones through liquidity swaps) for roughly that amount. Apparently these banks promptly went on a buying spree to raise the all important equity market, so that the U.S. consumer who net equity was almost negative on March 31, could have some semblance of confidence back and would go ahead and max out his credit card. Alas, as one can see in the money multiplier and velocity of money metrics, U.S. consumers couldn't care less about leveraging themselves any more."
So, the magical "Green Shoots" stock market rally was fueled by a mere $400 billion from the money markets. The rest ($2.3 trillion) was main-lined into the market via Bernanke's quantitative easing (QE) program, of which Krugman and others speak so highly.
Wouldn't you like to know if Bernanke sat down with G-Sax and JPM executives and mapped out the details of this swindle before the printing presses ever started rolling?
So, how long can this kind of fakery go on before our creditors grow weary of dealing with chiselers and stop buying US Treasuries altogether? Here's a blurp from Friday's Wall Street Journal on that very topic:
"Shaky auctions of Treasury notes this week reignited concerns about whether the government can attract buyers from China and elsewhere to soak up trillions in new debt.
A fuse was lit this week when traders noted China's apparent absence from direct participation in two Treasury bond auctions. While China may have bought Treasurys just before the auctions, market participants read the country's actions as a worrying sign that China and other foreign investors may be ratcheting back purchases at a time when the U.S. is seeking to fund a $1.8 trillion budget deficit.
This week alone, the U.S. deluged the bond market with more than $200 billion in record-size sales. The U.S. has had little trouble finding buyers in recent months. But that demand is fading, and the Treasury market has become volatile."
Uncle Sam is goosing the bond market just like he is the stock market. Take a look at Treasury's latest bit of chicanery which was stuffed in the back pages of the Wall Street Journal back in June:
"The sudden increase in demand by foreign buyers for Treasurys, hailed as proof that the world's central banks are still willing to help absorb the avalanche of supply, mightn't be all that it seems.
When the government sells bonds, traders typically look at a group of buyers called indirect bidders, which includes foreign central banks, to divine overseas demand for U.S. debt. That demand has been rising recently, giving comfort to investors that foreign buyers will continue to finance the U.S.'s budget deficit.
But in a little-noticed switch on June 1, the Treasury changed the way it accounts for indirect bids, putting more buyers under that umbrella and boosting the portion of recent Treasury sales that the market perceived were being bought by foreigners." ("Is foreign Demand as Solid as it Looks, Min zeng)
Nice touch, eh? So, someone doesn't want you and me to know when foreign demand drops off a cliff, so they just bend-and-twist the definitions so they meet the Fed's requirements. How's that for transparency?. Apparently, Bernanke et al. don't believe the Chinese have translators who can make sense of all this subterfuge. That may be a miscalculation, however, given recent rumblings from the Orient.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is a man who knows how Washington works and uses that knowledge to great effect. His appearances on Capital Hill are always worth watching. He sits politely with his hands folded in front of him playing the bashful professor while one one preening congressman after another makes a fool out of themself. In contrast, Bernanke looks like a modest and thoughtful academic faithfully upholding the public's trust. But things aren't always as they seem. The Fed chief is sticking it to the American people big-time and no one seems to have any idea of what's really going on. Former hedge fund manager Andy Kessler sums it up in a recent Wall Street Journal article, "The Bernanke Market". Here's a clip:
"By buying U.S. Treasuries and mortgages to increase the monetary base by $1 trillion, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke didn't put money directly into the stock market but he didn't have to. With nowhere else to go, except maybe commodities, inflows into the stock market have been on a tear. Stock and bond funds saw net inflows of close to $150 billion since January. The dollars he cranked out didn't go into the hard economy, but instead into tradable assets. In other words, Ben Bernanke has been the market."
What does it mean?
It means the revered professor Bernanke figured out a way to circumvent Congress and dump more than a trillion dollars into the stock market by laundering the money through the big banks and other failing financial institutions. As Kessler suggests, Bernanke knew the liquidity would pop up in the equities market, thus, building the equity position of the banks so they wouldn't have to grovel to Congress for another TARP-like bailout. Bernanke's actions demonstrate his contempt for the democratic process. The Fed sees itself as a government-unto-itself.
Over at Zero Hedge, Tyler Durden did the math and figured that the recent 45% surge in the S&P 500 had nothing to do with the fictional economic "recovery", but was just more of the Fed's hanky panky. Durden noticed that the money that's been sluicing into stocks hasn't (correspondingly) depleted the money markets. That's the clue that led him to the truth about Bernanke's 6 month stock rally.
Zero Hedge: "Most interesting is the correlation between Money Market totals and the listed stock value since the March lows: a $2.7 trillion move in equities was accompanied by a less than $400 billion reduction in Money Market accounts!
Where, may we ask, did the balance of $2.3 trillion in purchasing power come from? Why the Federal Reserve of course, which directly and indirectly subsidized U.S. banks (and foreign ones through liquidity swaps) for roughly that amount. Apparently these banks promptly went on a buying spree to raise the all important equity market, so that the U.S. consumer who net equity was almost negative on March 31, could have some semblance of confidence back and would go ahead and max out his credit card. Alas, as one can see in the money multiplier and velocity of money metrics, U.S. consumers couldn't care less about leveraging themselves any more."
So, the magical "Green Shoots" stock market rally was fueled by a mere $400 billion from the money markets. The rest ($2.3 trillion) was main-lined into the market via Bernanke's quantitative easing (QE) program, of which Krugman and others speak so highly.
Wouldn't you like to know if Bernanke sat down with G-Sax and JPM executives and mapped out the details of this swindle before the printing presses ever started rolling?
So, how long can this kind of fakery go on before our creditors grow weary of dealing with chiselers and stop buying US Treasuries altogether? Here's a blurp from Friday's Wall Street Journal on that very topic:
"Shaky auctions of Treasury notes this week reignited concerns about whether the government can attract buyers from China and elsewhere to soak up trillions in new debt.
A fuse was lit this week when traders noted China's apparent absence from direct participation in two Treasury bond auctions. While China may have bought Treasurys just before the auctions, market participants read the country's actions as a worrying sign that China and other foreign investors may be ratcheting back purchases at a time when the U.S. is seeking to fund a $1.8 trillion budget deficit.
This week alone, the U.S. deluged the bond market with more than $200 billion in record-size sales. The U.S. has had little trouble finding buyers in recent months. But that demand is fading, and the Treasury market has become volatile."
Uncle Sam is goosing the bond market just like he is the stock market. Take a look at Treasury's latest bit of chicanery which was stuffed in the back pages of the Wall Street Journal back in June:
"The sudden increase in demand by foreign buyers for Treasurys, hailed as proof that the world's central banks are still willing to help absorb the avalanche of supply, mightn't be all that it seems.
When the government sells bonds, traders typically look at a group of buyers called indirect bidders, which includes foreign central banks, to divine overseas demand for U.S. debt. That demand has been rising recently, giving comfort to investors that foreign buyers will continue to finance the U.S.'s budget deficit.
But in a little-noticed switch on June 1, the Treasury changed the way it accounts for indirect bids, putting more buyers under that umbrella and boosting the portion of recent Treasury sales that the market perceived were being bought by foreigners." ("Is foreign Demand as Solid as it Looks, Min zeng)
Nice touch, eh? So, someone doesn't want you and me to know when foreign demand drops off a cliff, so they just bend-and-twist the definitions so they meet the Fed's requirements. How's that for transparency?. Apparently, Bernanke et al. don't believe the Chinese have translators who can make sense of all this subterfuge. That may be a miscalculation, however, given recent rumblings from the Orient.
Dollar
As noted on wednesday the dollar looks very oversold and we are getting our bounce here. As the dollar moves higher we should expect weakness in the commodities and a shift to bonds and stocks.
Today I am just observing notice we hit the (v) on the chart on Crude I posted yesterday, which tells me I am mapping this one with deadly accuracy.
Today I am just observing notice we hit the (v) on the chart on Crude I posted yesterday, which tells me I am mapping this one with deadly accuracy.
Thursday, August 6, 2009
Crude
Crude closed flat today on slightly better than average volume. Range was $2.24.
Crude needs to move on out of this congestion. I'm not thrilled with the amount of time it has taken to trace this wave (iv). Perhaps it has finally finished (iv), although it is to early to determine that.
I do not want price action to break the base channel (right above z). That means it needs to go now. If this isn't the start of (v), I'm going to be concerned with the count.
It is also possible that (iv) finished where I have sub-minuette y. That would mean that there was an expanded flat for ii, which would end where z is. I know, looks like crap, that's why it's an alternate.
We will just have to see what price action brings tomorrow.
BINGO Again!
AB=CD 988.50 FROM YESTERDAY IS working perfectly, remember the projection is down to 984.25.
Lets see if we get there overnight or early tomorrow.
Lets see if we get there overnight or early tomorrow.
Market Update
Well had a terrible headache this morning, so I just got up to do some chart work. The Nasdaq again is showing relative weakness for another day and this is a sure sign of a pullback due.
Above number to look at on the Nasdaq is 2015 and if we break that we should head up to that gap of 2070. On the downside we must hold 1880 to hold our bullish stand on the market. We are overbought here and I would rather see a pullback before jumping in long here.
Must note I am bearish longer term but very short term I am bullish here. How high we go who knows but I will definitely be looking at the Elliott wave pattern the higher we go.
Remember I am still looking for us to at least test that 1045/1054 area
Above number to look at on the Nasdaq is 2015 and if we break that we should head up to that gap of 2070. On the downside we must hold 1880 to hold our bullish stand on the market. We are overbought here and I would rather see a pullback before jumping in long here.
Must note I am bearish longer term but very short term I am bullish here. How high we go who knows but I will definitely be looking at the Elliott wave pattern the higher we go.
Remember I am still looking for us to at least test that 1045/1054 area
US Dollar
The Dollar looks like is have completed a 5 wave down that would complete a larger wave C. The jury is still out on the dollar here but it has been getting rocked and we might be close to an important bottom here, keep an eye out on it.
Remember that the commodity markets are highly influenced on the US Dollar.
Remember that the commodity markets are highly influenced on the US Dollar.
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
More homes underwater
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The percentage of U.S. homeowners who owe more than their house is worth will nearly double to 48 percent in 2011 from 26 percent at the end of March, portending another blow to the housing market, Deutsche Bank said on Wednesday.
Home price declines will have their biggest impact on prime "conforming" loans that meet underwriting and size guidelines of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the bank said in a report. Prime conforming loans make up two-thirds of mortgages, and are typically less risky because of stringent requirements.
"We project the next phase of the housing decline will have a far greater impact on prime borrowers," Deutsche analysts Karen Weaver and Ying Shen said in the report.
Of prime conforming loans, 41 percent will be "underwater" by the first quarter of 2011, up from 16 percent at the end of the first quarter 2009, it said. Forty-six percent of prime jumbo loans will be larger than their properties' value, up from 29 percent, it said.
"The impact of this is significant given that these markets have the largest share of the total mortgage market outstanding," the analysts said. Prime jumbo loans make up 13 percent of the total market.
Deutsche's dire assessment comes amid a bolt of evidence in recent months that point to stabilization in the U.S. housing market after three years of price drops. This week, the National Association of Realtors said pending home sales rose for a fifth straight month in June. A widely watched index released in July showed home prices in May rose for the first time since 2006.
Covering 100 U.S. metropolitan areas, Deutsche Bank in June forecast home prices would fall 14 percent through the first quarter of 2011, for a total drop of 41.7 percent.
The drop in home prices is fueling a vicious cycle of foreclosures as it eliminates homeowner equity and gives borrowers an incentive to walk away from their mortgages. The more severe the negative equity, the more likely are defaults, since many borrowers believe prices will not recover enough.
Homeowners with the riskiest mortgages taken out during the housing boom have seen the greatest erosion in equity, in part because they were "affordability products" originated at the housing peak, Deutsche said. They include subprime loans, of which 69 percent will be underwater in 2011, up from 50 percent in March, Deutsche said,
Of option adjustable-rate mortgages -- which cut payments by allowing principal balances to rise -- 89 percent will be underwater in 2011, up from 77 percent, the report said.
Regions suffering the worst negative equity are areas in California, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Massachusetts and West Virginia. Las Vegas and parts of Florida and California will see 90 percent or more of their loans underwater by 2011, it added.
"For many, the home has morphed from piggy bank to albatross," the analysts said.
Home price declines will have their biggest impact on prime "conforming" loans that meet underwriting and size guidelines of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the bank said in a report. Prime conforming loans make up two-thirds of mortgages, and are typically less risky because of stringent requirements.
"We project the next phase of the housing decline will have a far greater impact on prime borrowers," Deutsche analysts Karen Weaver and Ying Shen said in the report.
Of prime conforming loans, 41 percent will be "underwater" by the first quarter of 2011, up from 16 percent at the end of the first quarter 2009, it said. Forty-six percent of prime jumbo loans will be larger than their properties' value, up from 29 percent, it said.
"The impact of this is significant given that these markets have the largest share of the total mortgage market outstanding," the analysts said. Prime jumbo loans make up 13 percent of the total market.
Deutsche's dire assessment comes amid a bolt of evidence in recent months that point to stabilization in the U.S. housing market after three years of price drops. This week, the National Association of Realtors said pending home sales rose for a fifth straight month in June. A widely watched index released in July showed home prices in May rose for the first time since 2006.
Covering 100 U.S. metropolitan areas, Deutsche Bank in June forecast home prices would fall 14 percent through the first quarter of 2011, for a total drop of 41.7 percent.
The drop in home prices is fueling a vicious cycle of foreclosures as it eliminates homeowner equity and gives borrowers an incentive to walk away from their mortgages. The more severe the negative equity, the more likely are defaults, since many borrowers believe prices will not recover enough.
Homeowners with the riskiest mortgages taken out during the housing boom have seen the greatest erosion in equity, in part because they were "affordability products" originated at the housing peak, Deutsche said. They include subprime loans, of which 69 percent will be underwater in 2011, up from 50 percent in March, Deutsche said,
Of option adjustable-rate mortgages -- which cut payments by allowing principal balances to rise -- 89 percent will be underwater in 2011, up from 77 percent, the report said.
Regions suffering the worst negative equity are areas in California, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Massachusetts and West Virginia. Las Vegas and parts of Florida and California will see 90 percent or more of their loans underwater by 2011, it added.
"For many, the home has morphed from piggy bank to albatross," the analysts said.
Was the 1006 a pivotal number?????
Well we didn't attack the 78.6% level at 1010 today but we did tick that 61% 1006.50 on the futures, remember we only hit is cash yesterday.
AB=CD is @ 988.50 and I have a projection @ 984.25.
Today there was a easy trade of the broke of 1000 on the short side which would have netted at least 6 handles easily. We are getting alittle noise bleed here in the markets and Nasdaq under performing the last two days make be on pause on the long side.
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
FDIC seems to be in trouble or running on fumes
One more bank failure but this will be the largest:
Guaranty (GFG) could be soon seized by the government in what would be the biggest bank failure in a year that has already had 64 of them. Last week, the bank warned investors to expect a federal takeover after regulators forced a writedown of its risky mortgage investments and a bid to raise new capital failed.
Guaranty (GFG) could be soon seized by the government in what would be the biggest bank failure in a year that has already had 64 of them. Last week, the bank warned investors to expect a federal takeover after regulators forced a writedown of its risky mortgage investments and a bid to raise new capital failed.
Late start- But Bingo again
Late start to the day for me. Two hours left but notice the 1006 was the exact top of today's market (1007 on the cash). That's a very important level indeed and we will see for the rest of the week if we start to develop this area as a POC (Point of control).
Will update some charts tonight and post.
Will update some charts tonight and post.
Monday, August 3, 2009
S&P 500
Looking that the possibilities here wave structure wise we are forming a number of overlapping waves which leads to confusion. Watch that 1006 level tomorrow or overnight tonight as I have 1005.25 as the 361.80 projection from thursday's swing low.
Let me see what happens tomorrow and gauge the volume on this move made today since it was a gap and go.
Do you get a turn around tuesday or a real rejection @ 1006. One thing to note today on the futures, the big guys weren't participating, is this our early red flag.
Let me see what happens tomorrow and gauge the volume on this move made today since it was a gap and go.
Do you get a turn around tuesday or a real rejection @ 1006. One thing to note today on the futures, the big guys weren't participating, is this our early red flag.
Crude
Oh man I really suck I only called Crude within 9 cents of today's top a day before :)
Well lets take another technical look at it. The 72.20 I looked back on my charts was the 261.8 fib extension the move down by where we took profit on that short play. The next meaningful number I have is 73.16.
Well lets take another technical look at it. The 72.20 I looked back on my charts was the 261.8 fib extension the move down by where we took profit on that short play. The next meaningful number I have is 73.16.
Crude Oil Rocking
Well analysis mid day friday is rocking again as Oil again is up $1.60, this morning. For the wave structure as I said on friday this market is very buyable and I expect to see 72.29 then 74.55. We will see soon eough.
Sunday, August 2, 2009
Catching up on reading
So many of you know I read extensively, I would say I read about about 25-30 hours a week what I call homework, (wish i was getting paid for it but you get paid in knowledge that most wont amass if not seen on a 10 min segment on CNBC). Talking about CNBC, viewership is down 30% especially in the 25-42 age group.
One of my regular reading is that of MR doom and gloom Faber. Last week thursday he claimed that the US will 100% go into a hyperinflationary period a thought I have had for years especially since 2007 when we started to see a huge issuance of bonds to fund the ever increasing deficit. I really do agree with this but the question is when? The thing with hyperinflation you dont want to be a owner of stocks you want to own hard commodities and be shorting bonds and having a increased allocation of long term bonds for income.
Dr. Doom as he is called to most of us was one of the first to spot China as the next great economical power and called the fall of the equity markets in 2008. He basically trades bonds, currencies and commodities.
For my readers who have interest in gold and other precious metals that news might be very pleasing to hear but who knows when we going to enter this hyperinflation phase.
If you are a very long term investor an accumulation of these metals might be a safe bet.
MARKETJEDI
One of my regular reading is that of MR doom and gloom Faber. Last week thursday he claimed that the US will 100% go into a hyperinflationary period a thought I have had for years especially since 2007 when we started to see a huge issuance of bonds to fund the ever increasing deficit. I really do agree with this but the question is when? The thing with hyperinflation you dont want to be a owner of stocks you want to own hard commodities and be shorting bonds and having a increased allocation of long term bonds for income.
Dr. Doom as he is called to most of us was one of the first to spot China as the next great economical power and called the fall of the equity markets in 2008. He basically trades bonds, currencies and commodities.
For my readers who have interest in gold and other precious metals that news might be very pleasing to hear but who knows when we going to enter this hyperinflation phase.
If you are a very long term investor an accumulation of these metals might be a safe bet.
MARKETJEDI
How did I get 1006 area
Well the projection is actually 1007. The question again is whether this will be the HIGH and another leg down perhaps breaking 666, or will this be a higher bottom test and then a longer rally to 1100-1200 on the S&P.
The best analysis for the bulls is the reverse Head and shoulder pattern in place on the daily and it would have a target somewhere up to the mid 1100 area. Since reverse head and shoulders are just that temporary patterns it would match up with renewed weakening of the economy and over valuation of stocks leading to aggressive profits taking. If the reverse head and shoulder pattern take complete form we will print 1007 for sure this week, the 37% retracement stands at 1028 and then the 50% retracement is 1125.
The best analysis for the bulls is the reverse Head and shoulder pattern in place on the daily and it would have a target somewhere up to the mid 1100 area. Since reverse head and shoulders are just that temporary patterns it would match up with renewed weakening of the economy and over valuation of stocks leading to aggressive profits taking. If the reverse head and shoulder pattern take complete form we will print 1007 for sure this week, the 37% retracement stands at 1028 and then the 50% retracement is 1125.
Saturday, August 1, 2009
S&P levels
The next level above that is significant is 1006. Please make note of my analysis from February which called for a high in the market somewhere in July. The last day of July proved to be the highest close for the market in 2009 but I still think we can go a little higher.
I hear a lot of people talking about the economy is getting better! could those people show me some proof and not just talk air :). I have said many times that the highest percentage returns in the market has been in bear markets so we must be careful with move up.
August must be noted as being an up month historically mainly because congress is on break. The market hates uncertainty and with congress being on break, we dont have that factor in the picture.
Lets see how high they want to push us but i am looking at that 1045/54 area (How many times I am calling that area ) to be some heavy resistance.
MARKETJEDI
I hear a lot of people talking about the economy is getting better! could those people show me some proof and not just talk air :). I have said many times that the highest percentage returns in the market has been in bear markets so we must be careful with move up.
August must be noted as being an up month historically mainly because congress is on break. The market hates uncertainty and with congress being on break, we dont have that factor in the picture.
Lets see how high they want to push us but i am looking at that 1045/54 area (How many times I am calling that area ) to be some heavy resistance.
MARKETJEDI
Corn Market
Another interesting grain market is Corn. Corn also rallied last week whether this is dollar related or economic related here is the wave chart below. Although it looks like a bear flag I think we should be looking at the grains for long positions on the weak dollar analysis. Look for a test of the 50% retracement
Soybeans update
Soybeans is a market I have been watching recently because of one of my associates
It surely had a nice week and took out some resistance mid week. Thursday we had a huge candle saying the volatility that happen in these markets. Friday we definitely closed at some resistance.
It surely had a nice week and took out some resistance mid week. Thursday we had a huge candle saying the volatility that happen in these markets. Friday we definitely closed at some resistance.
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