Definitely got ugly

Definitely got ugly there! pushed us down to 1031. I am definitely looking at the lower numbers as the next targets to start off November.
Next important downside number is 1023 then we have 1018, which were both important numbers on the upside.
Remember when we blasted pass that 1023-1025 area it was off to the races, now that is important to watch on the downside-

Have a great weekend

BINGO!!

Now that one was quick- They seem to be flushing us. They got to bounce us there or it could be a very ugly close

Next level

Next level on the downside is 1037.50 for the S&P futures.
Do we get there today??????? BIG QUESTION

S&P

Got to watch a strong trade through 1072. If we stay below we are turning the tide to the bears even after the move up today

Art Cashin

Art Cashin is one of the few person I like to listen on CNBC. He has over 50 years of floor experience and because of his experience he is one of the few left who have seen everything the market has done.
About an hour ago he said it was possible for the DOW yesterday to decline over 800 points (I am amazed at that) and had to really listen what is explanation was. Man he was dead on and he basically said the market is following the Euro/Dollar basically tick for tick. Art noted that any strength in the dollar will unravel us much lower which is in line to what I have been saying about a declining dollar would make market rise because of the devaluation of the dollar.
Art doesn't not believe this morning GDP numbers and I will be looking in the coming days how we really digest that number.
13 minutes in we are up but we will see how we do after lunch.

Talk to you later tonight.

MARKETJEDI

Crude Update

We have basically reached the 38.2% retracement level.
If this is a wave 4 of any degree, we probably won't get much past the 38.2% level. Should we have ended a structure at the 81.99 H, again of any degree, we should expect the retracement process to be much deeper than a 38.2%.
It appears to me that we may have traced a H/S topping pattern. If this is the case, it would measure down to around the 61.8% retrace level at 73.81.
Watch price as it retests the broken neckline. A failure here would allow good entry for a short.
RSI has reached a level on this 120 minute chart where we should expect at least some type of bounce.
The dollar continues to make new highs from the move off its 75.085 L. This is worth paying attention to folks.

Market

Yesterday's range on the ES was 25 handles, while volume was very heavy and expanding.
Volume has continued to expand during this sell off, suggesting that distribution has been taking place.

BINGO!!

FINALLY HIT- Actually went below. Should now get a reaction bounce here - Problem is might not be lot as internals are still not improving.

Will post a chart tonight on my thoughts-

Nasdaq

Very important what is happening here to the Nasdaq. Leader on the downside, remember it was the leader on the upside, telling tale.

broken

Broken but stopped @ 1047. Lets see if we get a reactionary bounce or we slice through later

1052

We must hold 1052 or we will welcome 1045 very quickly-

BINGO!!!!

Bingo on the 1054 actually printed 1052.75. Lets see if we bounce- actually out my short from 1083 there SWEET!!! took long enough

Crude

Structure continues to look and act like a 4th wave. This would suggest that we see higher price eventually.
There is a chance that this is a bigger triangle pattern. If you assume that the 77.64 L is a, the 81.99 H is b, we would have finished a complex c at the 77.81 L. I rate this as low probability though.

The US dollar appears to have put up a 5th wave structure to the upside. Be mindful of that.

No daytime updates today

Will be busy today so no intra day updates. Have a feeling we will test that 1054 area this week- Becareful of a turn around tuesday- watch the volume

Crude Update

After an initial morning rally, the crude pits turned bearish and there was nice downside price action. Range was a healthy $3.61 on expanding volume.
I wanted to point a couple of things out on the daily front month.
We have broken the up trend line on RSI. If you scan back across the chart, you will notice that in the previous cases where this has occurred, nice healthy corrections followed.
Notice as well, the negative divergence put in on the RSI. Is this telling us that minor C is finished? While certainly possible, I don't believe that's the case.
It appears to me that we would be missing an additional leg higher.
The intraday continuous contract shows the two ways I'm currently viewing structure.
So far, this corrective has the look and feel of a 4th wave. I have two sets of retracement fibs on the chart. The set on the left is measured from the beginning of (i) or [i], while the set on the right is from the wave (ii) or [ii] low.
Notice that the push higher this morning was turned back at the base corrective channel.
As I stated in the weekend update, we really need to see how this retrace plays out to give us a better handle on structure. I will assume a [iv] wave until proven otherwise.
We do have a divergence with today's lows, suggesting that perhaps the move off the 81.58 H needs some retrace.
Did you notice the move in the dollar today? Kind of hard to ignore in my opinion. Watch the 76.85 level. We are also at the 50% level on RSI. Price has been turned back the prior six times RSI has reached this level. Does it finally get through?

SO what now

The market just took back all the gains it made since the beginning of the earnings season. I am not ready to call it yet till be get those reaction numbers touched. Bingo on that crude!!!!

Markets

Ok S&P CRACKED A LITTLE HERE- As said short from last 1083 but man That was some big push down from today's high.
watch this 1067 area if it can't hold next up 1054 (Only logical)

Crude Update

The crude market finished the week with another positive gain.

We finished something at the 81.99 H. I believe it was a minuette wave (v), which would complete a minute degree wave.
I'm entertaining the idea that it just may be a [iii] wave. The retracement will give us a better idea.
The 38.2% retracement level is 77.17, while the 50% sits at 75.68.
The triangle target is 83.99. The continuous contract numbers can change when they put on a new front month, which is why this number is slightly different.
Bottom line - the retracement process does not appear complete to me. Should price trade through the 81.99 H, then it will be obvious that (v) has not finished.

Dollar Update

Fresh new lows for the bucky this past week - not unexpected.
My interpretation remains the same. Minuette wave (v) of minute [v] of minor 5 of intermediate (C). We inch closer and closer to an important bottom.
Price found support at the 78.6% retracement of the primary [A] leg off the 71.05 L. We are very near the minimum downside objective of 74.79, which is where 5 = 61.8% of 1 - 3.
Notice that RSI supported on its rising trend line, again giving positive divergence. Pay attention to the 50% level (upper trend line) to see whether it can finally break through.
I'm not sure this would signal an end to the downtrend, however, I do believe it would be meaningful.
Bottom line - As mentioned last week, this trend is very mature. It could end at anytime. Any upside price action should be viewed with suspicion, until an impulse has taken place with a channel break.

Markets

It would be so nice indeed if the markets did something. We are in no man's land with light volume no conviction and the conflicting reports of the news. We are technically moving lateral for a time now with alot of head fakes both ways but when you study things, the past month or so has seen the market grind up and down due to opposing forces from both the bullish side and the bearish side of the ledger. The bulls can talk quite a bit about what's being reported from our Government. Most of the economic news is favorable these days. It tells us the worst of things has passed on by. Has it? I am not so sure but that's their suggestion. The market is buying it for now. The bulls can also claim that earnings are coming in better than expected. Are they really? Well, I am not so sure since many, not all, but many of the better reports are due to cost cutting.How do we know? Earnings are beating in many cases by a huge amount yet revenues are only in line or in many cases, even a drop below. Cutting costs by cutting jobs and or job hours. Not exactly a pillar of health but hey, for now the market doesn't care and that's all we care about when playing this silly game. So earnings and economic news are clearly on the side of the bulls. On the side of the bears we have overbought daily charts in conjunction with massive consecutive negative divergences on the those same charts. A very ugly combination. We also have massive price resistance just above on those trend lines you'll see in the charts in this report. You also have a high number of stocks on a high pole that need to pull back. Their moves very mature meaning any upside from here is labored at best. It can occur but won't be easy by an means. Stocks on high poles with negative divergences and overbought can be a real headache for the bulls thus expecting much upside near term isn't wise. So the bulls have some advantages and you can see the bears do as well. It all equates to a market that has moved laterally for the last month plus and we all know lateral market are absolutely no fun.

We are doing NOTHING here but opening and closing the markets I hope we get some resolution out of this annoying range bound market soon or it will put me to sleep for 10 years :) Thank goodness for Oil!

MARKETJEDI

If recession is over why are banks failing?

WASHINGTON – It's a big number that only tells part of the story. The number of banks that have failed so far this year topped 100 on Friday — hitting 106 by the end of the day — the most in nearly two decades. But the trouble in the banking system from bad loans and the recession goes even deeper.

Dozens, perhaps hundreds, of other banks remain open even though they are as weak as many that have been shuttered. Regulators are seizing banks slowly and selectively — partly to avoid inciting panic and partly because buyers for bad banks are hard to find.

Going slow buys time. An economic recovery could save some banks that would otherwise go under. But if the recovery is slow and smaller banks' finances get even worse, it could wind up costing even more.

This year's 106 bank failures are the most in any year since 181 collapsed in 1992 at the end of the savings-and-loan crisis. On Friday, regulators took over three small Florida banks — Partners Bank and Hillcrest Bank Florida, both of Naples, and Flagship National Bank in Bradenton — along with four elsewhere: American United Bank of Lawrenceville, Ga., Bank of Elmwood in Racine, Wis., Riverview Community Bank in Otsego, Minn., and First Dupage Bank in Westmont, Ill.

When a bank fails, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. swoops in, usually on a Friday afternoon. It tries to sell off the bank's assets to buyers and cover its liabilities, primarily customer deposits. It taps the insurance fund to cover the rest.

Bank failures have cost the FDIC's fund that insures deposits an estimated $25 billion this year and are expected to cost $100 billion through 2013. To replenish the fund, the agency wants banks to pay in advance $45 billion in premiums that would have been due over the next three years.

The FDIC won't say how deep a hole its deposit insurance fund is in. It can tap a credit line from the Treasury of up to a half-trillion dollars to cover the gap.

The list of banks in trouble is getting longer. At the end of June, the FDIC had flagged 416 as being at risk of failure, up from 305 at the end of March and 252 at the beginning of the year.

Yet the pace of actual bank failures appears to be slowing. The FDIC seized 24 banks in July, 11 in September and 11 in October.

If any bank poses an immediate danger to customers or the broader financial system, regulators close it immediately, bank supervisors said. The issue is murkier for troubled banks that might qualify to close but whose closings might still be postponed or even prevented.

The FDIC's first priority, spokesman Andrew Gray said, is to maintain public confidence in the banking system. "As evidenced by the stability of insured deposits throughout last year, this mission has been a success," he said.

He said public confidence isn't reason enough to delay a bank closing, because legally the decision to close rests with whoever chartered the bank — a state or federal agency.

But more than a dozen experts, including current and former regulators, bankers and lawyers, say the FDIC's mission to maintain public confidence in the banking system contributes to the go-slow approach.

"The FDIC was set up to create confidence and prevent bank runs," says Mark Williams, a former bank examiner for the Federal Reserve. Being too aggressive about bank closings "can be counter to the mission."

Sarah Bloom Raskin, Maryland's top banking regulator, said: "Technically it's the states who decide, but in reality it's the FDIC calling you to say" when the bank will be closed.

Last fall, the financial turmoil was rooted in bad bets that the nation's biggest banks, like Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp., had made on complicated, high-risk mortgage investments.

Smaller banks have been undone by something more conventional — real estate, construction and industrial loans that have soured as the recession has deepened. Defaults are up as developers abandon failing projects and landlords can't meet their loan payments.

Small- and mid-sized banks hold lots of those loans and have been hurt more than big ones by the sinking commercial real estate market, especially in states like California, Georgia and Illinois. As defaults rise, these banks must set aside more money to cover losses.

For the banks, this means mounting losses and shrinking reserves.

In a healthy economy, Williams said, the Fed and the FDIC would be inclined to close such weak banks. But these days, those agencies and other regulators prefer to hold off, hoping an economic recovery will eventually restore the health of some of the banks.

But the recovery is expected to be slow. Americans remain hesitant to spend money because of job losses, flat wages, tight credit and high debt. Their cutbacks have triggered tens of thousands of business failures.

Abandoned retail space in downtowns and suburban malls means no rental income for property owners. As landlords default on real estate loans, they weaken the banks that hold the loans.

The situation now is especially grave in Southern California, Georgia and Illinois, which have some of the highest home foreclosure rates. Twenty banks have closed in Georgia alone.

Individual bank depositors aren't at risk when a bank fails. Their money is guaranteed up to $250,000 by the government. Ever conscious of maintaining public confidence, agency officials hammer this point in public statements.

When weak banks are allowed to stay open, their growing losses potentially can drain the FDIC's deposit insurance fund faster, says Bert Ely, an independent banking consultant.

Federal agencies aren't the only ones with an interest in slowing the pace of bank closings. State regulators with closer ties to local communities want to avoid the ripple effects when a town loses its main source of consumer and business credit, Williams said.

But finding buyers for wobbly banks has been tough.

FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair acknowledged as much in testimony this month before a Senate panel. The FDIC has been offering to share buyers' losses on the assets being transferred, she said.

"In the past several months investor interest has been low," she said in prepared testimony.

In an effort to find more potential buyers, the FDIC has relaxed the rules for private-equity firms to buy banks. In the past, regulators had feared such a move would allow investors to protect themselves from the cost of bank failures, escaping serious consequences while drawing down the FDIC's fund.

An early success of the new strategy was a deal announced this month to sell assets from Corus Bank of Chicago to a group of private investors. But there still aren't enough buyers to absorb quickly all the assets held by at-risk banks.

That's because there are so many weak and failing banks on the market — and so few others strong enough to buy them. That's one reason it's hard to know how many more banks could be closed in coming months, said Daniel Alpert, Managing Partner of the New York investment bank Westwood Capital LLC.

"How many banks will survive?" Alpert asked. "Loans are still deteriorating, but there are glimmers of hope in the economy. Ultimately, it's all about employment."

SOYBEANS

The key levels to watch for the upcoming week are the 1040 H and the 878.75 L.
The minimum upside objective is 1060.25, where [C] = 61.8% of [A]. [C] = [A] 1172.50.

We do have a slight RSI divergence as well. RSI last peaked at the early August highs. Price has made two successive highs while RSI made lower highs each time. This is something to watch.

Corn

Haven't posted corn charts in a couple of days but this market seem to me on fire.
Based on structure, my interpretation is that this market indeed made an important tradable bottom at the 302 L.
I believe structure is in the process of completing minor 5 of intermediate (3) of primary [A]. It is unclear if 5 has finished or not. It may need an additional leg higher, but appears complete to me.
Once 5 finishes, if not already, we should see an intermediate degree corrective.
The 38.2% retracement of (1) sits at 374. This is right in the middle of the 4th of lessor degree.
Notice that we have broken out from the channel, suggesting that the move off the 707 H has indeed completed. Also notice that price blew right through the 200 sma.
The critical level to watch is the price extreme of (1), which is 347.60. Should this retracement trade through that level, then something is obviously wrong.
Bottom line - I am expecting a retracement process for the upcoming week, assuming 5 has finished. Be on the alert for a triangle or some type of complex pattern due to the form that (2) took.

Wow

Wow just got in as I had a dentist appointment and I see the markets getting crushed. remember folks we have huge divergences and that 1076 must be held for the bulls in my book to sustain this rally-
I will do my usual weekend updates.

CRUDE

It is unclear to me whether or not wave (v) has completed. Price action off the 81.99 H is certainly corrective, however, it acts like it's some kind of 4th wave.

My guess at this point, we finished (v) and the move down to the 79.90 L was (a). Wave (b) is an expanded flat, which means that (c) down will follow, to finish minute [ii], in what will be a flat.
The problem I have with this view is the RSI action. That is certainly not a wave (v) divergence. In fact, notice that it takes out the high of what I have labeled as wave (iii).
This calls to question whether (v) is done or in progress. Perhaps (iii) finished at the 81.99 H? This would sorta make sense.
Regardless, I feel price is on the verge of a decent retracement process.

Nasdaq and S&P lagging

Nasdaq and S&P lagging the move of the DOW.

S&P UPDATE

Watch for 1067.50 area today- Very important level

CRUDE UPDATE

Price has reached the top of the channel, which would suggest that (v) is nearing completion. There is always the chance for "throw-over", as Elliott called it, where price breaks above the upper boundary.

Momentum is certainly slowing down, as evidenced by RSI. It appears that we should have our customary negative divergence on completion of this wave (v).

Once [i] completes, we should witness a more meaningful retracement.

S&P UPDATE

We closed below the important 1081 level which acted as support in the market short term. We not not far from it in the early overnight session but we close horrible and ticked off some bearish divergence and signals.
Watch the same numbers we hit on the way up 1067 and that important 1054. That 1054 is like a mirror and I am telling you this here and now when we break that 1054 on a two push down that will signal the last of this rally. Yes yes I said it but technicals never lie.
I have some work to do but if I am up to it I will post some charts.

US Dollar

More new lows for the US Dollar. Notice though that Gold is not leaping forward as you would think! Are we resting on that commodity or are the players now jumping into OIL.
This push is Oil is very impulsive and you all know what that means if you have been reading my blog for awhile.

Note on the Dollar

Note on the weakness of the dollar. Although we hear a lot from the biggest holders of the US debt and the members of OPEC crying about the weaker Dollar, I don't think they really want to rush into a full scale move away. Why do I say that, think about it right now they would lose a lot of money if there is a rapid shift away from the greenback as they are the holders of this debt, remember also who will buy it from them in the end!!!
So what do I think? well if and I say IF the dollar is put on the chopping block more and continue is decline ( lost 20% of value so far this year) then the market will have to compensate for this devaluation and price equities higher. Yes for those who don't understand, the markets go up 20% but the currency goes down 20% in value you are flat in real monetary terms, you have not gained. Some of you are from developing countries fully understand this equation than most. So yep if the US dollar continue to get kill it is totally possible we go higher. For me I don't think all the pieces will come together to make the market fully compensate for the devaluation of the US dollar and then again I think the debt holders might through some radical means try to prop up the US dollar as they are losing money hand over fist.
A lot of elements to think about and that's why it is very hard to analyze all at once but the secret will be to find the sequence of events and play the markets as such.

Such a beautiful day out here in NC, going outside to have a cup of coffee.


MARKETJEDI

Wave count

Now folks if my count is correct here on the equity indexes, we are definitely in WAVE 4. Now why I have been on the fence is because WAVE 4 is the most difficult to trade but the great thing about WAVE 4 is that you are very sure you are in it when we chop with little direction.
Now what do you do when we are in a WAVE 4? Well at least you know there will be a WAVE 5 and that should be the conclusion of the last trend, so note of caution to the bulls here. So yep it matches up with my time zone of another 3-4 weeks maybe of upside (WAVE5) THEN WE SHOULD SEE THE END OF THIS RALLY.
Since March I said 1050 area and possibly 1096 and we have seen those numbers, the only other number I have is a 1114 but I would have to check back but it is safe to say 1096 on the analysis of a March significant low should make a technical topping formation area.
We will see how this pans out and see how we react if and when we get to 1114. Again warning the bear market is by no means over as I still think we are in WAVE 2 of the bear market. We will soon see.

MARKETJEDI

Video on US Dollar future

Video

CRUDE UPDATE

Time running out

Time is running out on this uptrend as I have a Fibonacci time high coming in the next 4 weeks. I will continue to narrow it down as we go along.

Gold Update

What a sweet chart!!!!!!!!!!!
New all time high @ 1072, close to my prediction of 1076.
My interpretation of structure has this market in minuette (iv) of minute [v] of minor C of intermediate (C). The alternate view is a very bullish minor 3 of intermediate (3).
As pointed out in Thursday's post, it is unclear which peak (iii) finished at, 1062.50 or 1072.
Once (iv) completes, we should see another leg higher that would complete [v], and thus C.
If this assessment is correct, then the bulk of gains have already occurred. Of course, there is always the possibility that (v) could extend.
Bottom line - we should see another push higher before a meaningful correction.

CRUDE UPDATE

It is unclear whether crude broke free from a minor B wave triangle or not, as I show on the chart.
Price action certainly resembles a "thrust" that would be expected.
If a triangle, it measures to 84.33.
There is also the possibility that this is part of a combination corrective, and perhaps a combo that is not finished. That has yet to be determined.
Bottom line - price action does not appear finished in this move higher, however, it should be close to needing a retracement.
I am anticipating any retrace to be shallow and short lived.

US Dollar UPDATE

I interpret structure to be in minuette (v) of minute [v] of minor 5 of intermediate (C) of primary [B]. A lot of ending 5's are very near folks.
Notice how the 50 sma has held price in check since July.
Noteworthy as well, look at the RSI action since it registered its low in early June. It has consistently been turned back down from the 50% level. In fact, this has happened 6 different times.
There is big positive divergence, forewarning that a change of trend may soon be at hand.
The DSI readings continue to point to a one way trade here. As has been mentioned in these posts numerous times, this can not go on indefinitely.
5 = 61.8% of 1 - 3 at 74.79. This is the minimum downside objective that would be expected to be reached.
Bottom line - This trend is very mature at this point in time. Be aware that it could end at anytime. As always, an impulse off a low with a channel break will give confirming evidence.

US$, Oil and effect on Gold

"China, Russia, Japan & France are working with oil producers in the Middle East to permit currencies other than the U.S. $ to be used to pay for oil. This basket of currencies will include the Japanese Yen, the Chinese Yuan, and the €. It is reported in leading U.K. newspapers that this payment may be in a 'new' currency that is made up of these currencies. It is also reported that a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar would form part of this 'basket' While we wait for confirmation from the countries involved, the news is in the market place and affecting gold strongly now. The most likely candidate for the 'new' money is the old Special Drawing Right of the International Monetary Fund. With the Chinese Yuan heading for one of the component parts of the Special Drawing Right in its next review by the I.M.F., the move would also incorporate the U.S. $, but break the link between oil and the $ a feature of the monetary world that has persisted for around 40 years now." -

Russia and Saudi Arabia have denied this news already and it is likely that if there is any truth to the story it will not be publicized this way. However, it remains expected by the market eventually and because of this the gold price is moving through overhead resistance! It is as if to say we expect it, so it is time to discount it now!

Once proved true and if true now, the era of uncertainty and monetary instability will be exacerbated by this break, taking the $'s prime support away from it and exposing it to the criteria that measures all other global currencies. This accounting will be bad for the $ and very, very positive for gold!

Anyone remember this chart

I posted this chart earlier this year anyone remember it. Seem to be doing exactly what it says so far.

S&P 500 UPDATE

Just got a number higher @ 1103/4 hmmm. I wonder if we close this gap today will be interesting to see if it does but I am not betting on it, just know I am getting a projection of 1103/4 as of now

OK Folks

Ok folks the talking heads claim we are out of the woods but this morning GE, BAC, Haliburton and Sony had much weaker earnings. So I ask where is the recovery???
Bank of America I knew without doing any work they were going to miss earnings why, because I saw a headline earlier this week that they were going to charge yearly fees on their credit cards. That showed me if they needed to do such, definitely meant they would have unexpected weaker earnings in some parts of their business. Now one very very important thing I heard this morning with the GE earnings was that GE will be covering it financial arm losses for 5 years instead of the 3 years previously announced. Now what does that means? means they think the financial segment of their business is much weaker that previously analyzed, simple.
Now where does that leave us. I fear that the FED will be in our business for a longer time with these 2 financial giants showing weakness on their books but then we ask the question for how long and can the FED keep us low on interest rates without causing another bubble somewhere else. I dont know but what I know is that this system of the FED will continually cause bubbles and bust till be get rid of it.

Mattel the toy maker showed sales decline and any idiots can see christmas will not be good for the retailers again.
I have alot I could comment on with the FED etc but I dont want to get hate mail like I did once so I will keep my opinions to myself.

Have a great weekend.

MARKETJEDI

Crude

There was an upside explosion in the crude pits yesterday. Range was a nice $3.18 on above average volume.
I'm not entirely sure whether we came out of a triangle or not. It really doesn't matter, and we wont really know until down the road.
What does matter is price action has been impulsive off the 68.88 L. We either ended [e] or likely [2] there.
I'm still expecting price to reach the 79.42 target area. I would like to think that we could accomplish that in short order, but nothing goes straight up. We are due a retrace.
If minor B is indeed complete, the minimum upside objective is 83.54. This is where C = 61.8% of A. C = A around 100.
We also have the 38.2% retracement of the all-time high in the same area.

S&P 500 UPDATE

I have a number S&P 1094.50 projection higher. Now what does DOW mean 10000, NOTHING it is just a number like 9000 or 9216 :) technically it has no significance and I find it very hard to see why it should be significant.
I have been back for little over a week and I am yet to see anything of much difference in the market but I am taking my time here to see what happens. I must admit the present action doesn't make technicians like me too excited and less trading is what is required special in the equity side of the markets and it can be seen in the relatively low market participation.
Now get ready for all the talking heads to chat about DOW 10000 like it means something but then ask them what does it mean. Ask them what has the dollar done in 2009? The fact that the dollar can now buy much less, no one is talking about the REAL problems here with the dollar decline and equity prices. Again yep you invest in the market and you stocks are up 10% but the buying power of the dollar when you sell that stock is down 20%, did you come out on top? Nope but the mass media wont sell you on that because they are so fixated on the DOW, 30 stocks in the world of millions.
Well not much to report because really I don't see much happening so just relax and stay put, this is how the market is.

MARKETJEDI

Suckers Rally- Not my words but agree

My Gold fans

Hmmm

Trying S&P short here 1083.
Could be an awful play due to price but time tells me different. I will hold onto this one

Crude - Target HIT

Crude has finally hit its first target in the upper structure of 74.50. Now we wait to see if we will hit the target on Gold of 1076

Video

Dow 10K

Here we come- said it when I came back last week we are going higher!!

Gold Target 1076

Dollar still bearish

The greenback made fresh lows on the week, maintaining its leading role as the worlds largest supply of weak paper.
My interpretation has structure completing minute [iii] of minor 5 of intermediate (C) of primary [B] at the 75.68 L. My alternate view is that low finished minute [v], thus primary [B].
Should [iii] be complete, then we should be in the beginning stages of [iv]. Any trade through the 77.795 L, the price extreme of [i], will suggest that perhaps it was wave [v] that finished at the 75.68 L.

The move off that low certainly appears corrective in nature.
Bottom line - I maintain my near-term bearish stance. If my assessment is correct, we are getting closer to a turning point, however, were not quite there yet.

Crude

The crude market continued higher this past week as expected.

My interpretation of the crude structure remains the same. I have price tracing minuette (c) of minute [d] in a minor B triangle of intermediate (B). My alternate view is that this is a minute [iv] triangle.

Price ran into the upper boundary of the corrective channel and was initially repelled, but finished Friday's trade closing above it. This also closes price above the daily 50 sma.
I show minuette (a) completing at the 71.39 H, however, it is possible that it actually finished at the 71.97 H.
I'm not real concerned with exactly how the internal structure traces out. Just be aware that this wave could end at any time.
Should price trade through the 75.89 H or the 61.38 L, this would invalidate the triangle view

Soybeans

The bean market enjoyed nice upside price action this past week.
My interpretation of structure has beans completing primary [B] of a double zigzag of cycle wave c. My alternate view is that primary [C] finished at the 1040 H and we have started cycle c down.
This structure reminds me of where the crude market was a few weeks ago. A [B] wave triangle is certainly possible and is a 2nd alternate.
If [B] is indeed finished, we should see 5 intermediate degree waves up that would finish [C], thus completing the double zigzag and cycle b.
Targets include [C] = [A] at 1172.50, while [C] = 61.8% of [A] at 1060.25, which is the minimum upside objective. The 78.6% retracement of a is at 1146.25.

Notice how the channel provided support and turned price higher.

I see no cycles of importance for the upcoming week ahead.

All prices basis continuous contract.

Boring

Nothing happening much- Could be we set up in an consolidation mode as we have not done much either way for about an month. These markets will kill you as they show no sign of trending or volatility besides for day trades.
Just stay flat and be ready when the consolidation passes.

Have a great weekend.

MARKETJEDI

1076-1085

Doing some work here and this morning I mentioned the 1076 number but I am also now getting some projects to 1084/1085 area so I will use that range to see how we react in the market

Tricky

Very tricky around here- Looks like it is safer just to play the metals and Oil than the equity markets for sure. The US dollar continues to get killed and for that reason the dollar is worth much less so it would interpret to higher stock prices to compensate for the lack of buying power.
Who knows what this will all mean but looking at the increased deficit, lower dollar and higher commodity prices I can only think we are going to end in a blood bath. This is definitely not for the faint of heart and for me I rather stay on the sidelines than guess. Be my guest if you like to guest but I will wait till I see moves that are trending beside the dollar and gold moves to try anything else here and now.

I will run some analysis this weekend for sure. I am getting some ratios @1076 for the S&P for what that is worth.

Yep the market goes up 10% but the dollar goes down 20%, do you think you are ahead???


MARKETJEDI

10000

DOW 10K is only 200 points away

Trending for Earnings

So we are now in another earnings seasons, one of my favorite times in the market. This time I am far away from the action as I am just coming back from being away but never the less the earnings trend should hold through and trend in the direction of the first few reports.
The futures are up overnight as AA earnings surprised higher and they are the first of the big weights to announce earnings. If the trend stands we should trend higher and make new highs. I am out of my short S&P for small profits +4 and am currently flat. Earnings will the the defacto here and if they are modestly improved we will bust a move higher.
Look for the banks especially to go higher especially BAC, since they have run Mr.Lewis out. Maybe BAC hits $20 we will soon know.
It is 5:00 and very sleepy. I will update later

Question

Someone asked me by email how do I get the figures I work with. For one, I am a natural mathematician that has been school in Finance and uses a series of mathematical theories in my analysis of the markets.
All things in nature works in cycle and sequences and based on these patterns I write projections to see where the trend lies. What I have been working on for nearly two years is time sequence and projection in stead of price. Many times prices can be distorted by human manipulation but TIME is only sequenced by nature and their holds the real power of predicting the direction of the markets in my opinion.
For example I have said this before many times again: would you rather know the price of the top of the market or the time? I think I would rather know the time as it wouldn't matter the price if I know the time of say a date or week where the market should top out, correct???
Well that's how I see it and I will continue to fine tune my work accordingly. In a few I think I will start seriously writing down my analysis or publish my writings so those who are serious might add to it or learn for it. I find most people today want to be spoon fed and not learn because it is so easy just to copy or jump on the bandwagon and not think.

Well I am not inventing anything new but just applying it to the markets as it is in nature.

MARKETJEDI

Crude

Crude finished higher on the tuesday session on above average volume. Range came in at "a no big deal" $1.91.

As expected, price moved up out of the corrective. We ran into the down trending channel and were quickly repelled, which is very common.

I have changed the labeling and placed sub-minuette i at today's high of 71.97.

It is also possible that i actually ended at the 71.63 H. It is unclear, as the leg off of the 70.06 is a mess.

I have placed two separate ii waves on the chart. I prefer the second lower ii myself. This means that ii needs additional work. Although 2nd waves can certainly only retrace a 38.2%, it's not very common.

There is a very remote possibility that 71.97 completed minuette (c), and thus minute [d]. As triangles start contracting, the waves get smaller and can fool you.

Bottom line - I continue to see price moving higher. If I have structure correctly assessed, then we should see nice upside price action tomorrow, as we would be in a wave iii.

Any trade below 68.05 would mean something else is going on.

Shorted

Shorted S&P 1054 for what it is worth.

Cycle high today

Remember today should be a cycle high, so it should provide a high probability short- wait for the impulse to end on the upside then short.

MARKETJEDI

980

980 will be a very important number on the downside. Take note

Interesting!!!!!!!!!

S&P 500 UPDATE

The ES has now given up over 50 handles from its 9/23 high of 1075.75.

It is obvious to me that the equity market(s) topped at the ES 1075.75(Called for the possibility of 1069 at the March lows). At minimum we should see an intermediate degree correction. At worst - turn out the lights 'cause this party is over.
If correct, this suggests that the March lows should be taken out in this primary wave [3] down. Actually, it is required for 3rd waves to travel beyond 1st waves, as a rule of formation.
Friday We closed the day forming a bullish bat formation which should spell higher but I think to a maximum another intermediate lower high will be made this week.

Also notice the RSI. We have broken the uptrend line from the March lows. We also had a very nice and pronounced negative divergence at the highs.
Bottom line this is not the time to get bullish do that on your own cause.

MARKETJEDI

BACK!!

Finally back home and ready to rumble. It is sure very hard to try and analyze stuff when you are not all together on top of it, so please allow me some time this weekend to get abreast of what is going on in the markets.

Yesterday the equity markets experienced hard downside price action. Range was an impressive 31.50 point for the S&P on HUGE volume day.

Has the "Great Bear" returned? Price action took out the last remaining level of support (1034.25) that would allow any bullish interpretation.
The preponderance of evidence suggests that we have topped. Is it THE top? That's yet to be determined, but I believe the odds are greater than 50% that we may have entered the next phase of this market.

I have replaced my count with the alternate scenario. This implies structure completed minor C of intermediate (Y) of primary [B] at the 1075.75 H.
Yes, it's far from that perfect idealized Elliott Wave structure, but it is what it is.

I am showing a 120 minute pit session chart because after the 1065.75 H it is a mess trying to get a clean count. Sub-minuette i finishing at the 1053.25 L is just a guess. It's more likely that it actually ended at the 1041.50 L.

The daily projection comes in about 1022. At a minimum, there should be some type of reaction once fulfilled.

The daily 50sma is currently at 1016.25, another level worthy of our attention.
Sub degree targets include (iii) = 161.8% of (i) at 1002.25, and the 261.8% projection of (i) at 962.50.
Watch the base channel boundary line. This could be a support level.
I have no choice but to be near-term bearish. There is just no bullish alternative. If your a perma bull, the best you can hope is that this is an intermediate degree (X) wave unfolding.