My thoughts

I have been on and off this week due to a personal matter but I told myself I would take 3 hours today to do some homework so readers don't think I deserted them. I posted updates for crude, bonds, dollar, corn etc but I would like now to address the indexes.
It has been tough trading the indexes for the last 3 months but one thing to always remember is that the market follows trends. The trends of earnings runnings and the seasonality of the market must never be underestimated.
Although we have screamed much since March 09, we are moving on much lower volume with negative divergences on all technical parameters like breadth. There is a high possibility of a peak here BUT not the peak in this bear market rally, YES BEAR market rally. After doing some initial work, I have some target about 90 points higher here on the S&P. Do we get there, possible but I would be shorting there 1000% if we hit 1172/8 area. We need to remember here folks that although it sounds and looks good that the market is grinding higher we must look at the technicals and fundamentals of the markets and that of the overall economy. Big money are all viewing this is a bear market and to be honest it is! just look at the earnings, etc, they are terrible. If you really analyze it, the S&P is now more expensive here than when it was 1300, believe it or not! and the value of the almighty dollar does make the scenario any better.
Now how will it play out? Hmmm only a guess here but I would love to see us make a technical high here in the next few days and then get a pullback below that 1025 low we did recently. What that will do is shake out the weak longs and then we would amount another rally maybe in the Spring to higher highs. After that I would definitely looking to short and when I say short I mean big time no holds barred as this would be the start of the great bear wave 3 in my opinion, which will blow investor's confidence out of the water.
Folks the banks are not performing here. I think one of the real big banks are going to suffer huge losses in the next 6 months and I have my bet on two in particular but I will update on them later. Remember Wall Street want to cash in on their bonuses so don't expect us to crash and burn before end of year it WON'T happen. They need to keep the musical chairs running to collect from the dump mom and pops investors.

I would sit on my hands if I were a long term investor in equities here. I would be very very cautious here.

Crude

The crude market corrective continues. We have now registered 17 trading day's in a sideways market.
Although this chop has been difficult to discern from a pattern standpoint, it has been very tradeable with plenty of range.
We show a simple (a)(b)(c) , though it's possible we are tracing a combination.
We have broken free of the 20 sma and appear headed for a meeting with the 50 sma, which is at 74.57 and rising.

Conclusion should see one more leg down to complete the structure

Dollar

New Lows in the dollar again. It appears that we had 5 waves down off of the spike high of 77.50. If it is a minute degree, structure would be complete. Any degree less, argues for a 1st wave.

Conclusion we will see more new lows

Gold

The gold market continues to subdivide higher, reaching new highs in the process.
It's apparent that we are getting very close to this leg finishing. I am assuming that this will complete a minute degree wave [v] coming out of the triangle. Remember that triangles precede finishing moves.
If this interpretation is correct, we will complete an intermediate degree (B) wave at this moves conclusion.
I am anxious to see what type of price action we get when this leg finishes subdividing. Whatever it completes should be tradable.
Sentiment continues to maintain over 90% bulls according to the DSI readings.
Bottom line - We keep going up until we don't. If I were long, and I'm not, I would use Friday's low as a stop and perhaps trail it up.

Corn

The corn market traded higher this past week after retesting the broken channel.
I interpret structure to still be tracing intermediate (4) of primary [A].
It's possible that wave (4) has completed and (5) has started. I don't believe this is the case though.
Being a 4 wave, there is always the chance of a triangle or some type of complex pattern.
Should (4)'s price low be in, we can start to get upside projections. (5) = 61.8% of (1) - (3) at 428.25.
RSI has done a good job of maintaining its uptrend line. We should expect to see our customary divergence when (5) completes.
A critical level remains the price extreme of (1) at 347.60. Should price trade through that level, then we would have to take another look at structure.
Bottom line - I'm expecting some more grinding away in this wave (4) this upcoming week.

Soybeans

The bean market traded higher this past week after bouncing off the daily 50 sma.
Interpretation remains intermediate wave (2) of primary [C] of a double zigzag cycle b wave.
Price action off the 951.25 L does not appear impulsive. This suggests that (2) needs additional work. Should this be the case, the channel will be in jeopardy.
The 880.25 L is a critical level. Any trade through this price invalidates this leg being a (2).
A triangle may still be in play, whether an [X] or [B].
The retracement levels of (1) are on the chart.
Bottom line - It appears that wave (3) will need to wait a little longer. I'm expecting downside pressure for the upcoming week.

Wheat

Wheat market enjoyed nice upside price action this past week.
Interpretation of the structure is an intermediate (2) of primary [A].
It is unclear if we are still tracing minor B of (2), or if wave (2) has actually completed. My guess is that we are in the finishing stages of minor B , with C down to follow.
The alternative is that (2) completed at the 487.75 L and we have put in some smaller degree 1's and 2's.
Notice that we are back at the channel. This would be a good spot to complete B.
Any trade through the 574.75 H would signal that (3) has commenced.
The dotted vertical lines in the RSI pane represent Gann dates. The last 2 have been spot on for very tradable lows. The next date takes place on December 2nd.
Bottom line - I'm expecting price to start retracing very soon. The retracement levels are on the chart.