Monday, November 30, 2009
Still thinking
Still thinking we drift higher especially the first week of the month and then slowly lower into the christmas holidays. We are definitely in wait and see mode still so forgive the boring updates :)
Well we knew it would happen
The Federal Reserve is taking steps to fine-tune a strategy to reel in some of the unprecedented amount of money that's been pumped into the economy during the financial crisis.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Monday that investors and others shouldn't read anything about the timing of when the central bank will need to reverse course and start boosting interest rates and removing other supports to fend off inflation.
The upcoming operations will involve so-called reverse repurchase agreements. That's when the Fed sells securities from its portfolio with an agreement to buy them back later.
Reverse repos are one of the tools the Fed can use to drain some of the money it has plowed into the economy to ease financial troubles.
The operations will be "extremely small" and won't affect the Fed's key interest rate, officials said. They wouldn't say what the dollar amount for the operations would total.
Fed officials also said they didn't know when the first operation would be conducted and how many there would be. The operations will be conducted to "to ensure operational readiness" at the Federal Reserve, the New York Fed said.
They do not "represent any change in the stance of monetary policy, and no inference should be drawn about the timing of any change in the stance of monetary policy in the future," the New York Fed said.
Reverse repos have been in the Fed's toolkit for years as a way to mop up money in the economy, and most recently were used in December 2008, the Fed said.
This time around, though, the Fed is considering selling its securities to a broader set of investors -- beyond the traditional big "primary" securities dealers such as Banc of America Securities, Citigroup Global Markets and JPMorgan Securities.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has said such large-scale reverse repurchase agreements can be done with banks, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and other institutions. Some analysts have said that might involve transactions with money market mutual funds.
To foster the recovery, the Fed earlier this month decided to leave a key bank lending rate at a record low near zero, and pledged to hold it there for an "extended period." Many economists predict rates will stay at super-low levels through the rest of this year and into part of next year.
The central bank's balance sheet has ballooned to over $2 trillion -- reflecting the special programs it has set up to spur lending, stabilize banks and revive the economy. That's more than double the amount from before the financial crisis struck.
One of the biggest challenges for the Fed is deciding exactly when to start boosting rates, and when to remove economic and financial supports.
Remove the supports too soon and the recovery could be derailed. Leave the supports in place for too long risks unleashing inflation.
From Yahoo Finance
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Monday that investors and others shouldn't read anything about the timing of when the central bank will need to reverse course and start boosting interest rates and removing other supports to fend off inflation.
The upcoming operations will involve so-called reverse repurchase agreements. That's when the Fed sells securities from its portfolio with an agreement to buy them back later.
Reverse repos are one of the tools the Fed can use to drain some of the money it has plowed into the economy to ease financial troubles.
The operations will be "extremely small" and won't affect the Fed's key interest rate, officials said. They wouldn't say what the dollar amount for the operations would total.
Fed officials also said they didn't know when the first operation would be conducted and how many there would be. The operations will be conducted to "to ensure operational readiness" at the Federal Reserve, the New York Fed said.
They do not "represent any change in the stance of monetary policy, and no inference should be drawn about the timing of any change in the stance of monetary policy in the future," the New York Fed said.
Reverse repos have been in the Fed's toolkit for years as a way to mop up money in the economy, and most recently were used in December 2008, the Fed said.
This time around, though, the Fed is considering selling its securities to a broader set of investors -- beyond the traditional big "primary" securities dealers such as Banc of America Securities, Citigroup Global Markets and JPMorgan Securities.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has said such large-scale reverse repurchase agreements can be done with banks, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and other institutions. Some analysts have said that might involve transactions with money market mutual funds.
To foster the recovery, the Fed earlier this month decided to leave a key bank lending rate at a record low near zero, and pledged to hold it there for an "extended period." Many economists predict rates will stay at super-low levels through the rest of this year and into part of next year.
The central bank's balance sheet has ballooned to over $2 trillion -- reflecting the special programs it has set up to spur lending, stabilize banks and revive the economy. That's more than double the amount from before the financial crisis struck.
One of the biggest challenges for the Fed is deciding exactly when to start boosting rates, and when to remove economic and financial supports.
Remove the supports too soon and the recovery could be derailed. Leave the supports in place for too long risks unleashing inflation.
From Yahoo Finance
New lows
New lows printing on the day- Still action is cloudy, seems a lot of persons are still having pumpkin pies
New week but end of month
Let's see how the traders come into this week. Hard to call from here with the 3 day holiday last week. So will update when some patterns form
Sunday, November 29, 2009
Friday, November 27, 2009
Futures WOW
I didn't realize the futures were down as much as 40 points and 400 DOW points. Need to take note of those points
I love saying BINGO
Notice what happened to GOLD hit the C point of our charts and bang that was it. Yes we had the news hit overnight with Dubai but let me reiterate this news doesn't not make technicals and it would have played out that way anyways.
Now lets see what happens to this gap down remember it is a half day and it seems we have already touched some important levels I had marked down on the lower end.
Today is usually an non event day so don't really expect much to really manifest itself with the Dubai news but it just shows you the world is still a fragile place.
MARKETJEDI
Now lets see what happens to this gap down remember it is a half day and it seems we have already touched some important levels I had marked down on the lower end.
Today is usually an non event day so don't really expect much to really manifest itself with the Dubai news but it just shows you the world is still a fragile place.
MARKETJEDI
Thursday, November 26, 2009
Holiday post
WORLD markets are in heavy declines as there seem to be trouble in the once promising Dubai.
Dubai Investment is said to be on the verve of default.
Is this the trigger of wave 3????
Dubai Investment is said to be on the verve of default.
Is this the trigger of wave 3????
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
US Dollar
Been writing about this forever and folks aren't fully realizing what is going. The crushing for the American PESO :) been talking here on the blog for months about folks will tell you about the DOW being over 10000 (meaningless argument) and things are looking up BUT when the value of the currency is declining at a faster rate of your investment returns you are loosing REAL wealth. Can you guys imagine if something happened globally and US debt holders would have to sell lets say 15% of the debt, if you think the dollar is slowly getting crushed now pray you don't see such an event.
The news here is the dollar and nothing else, that's the reason why the FED is keeping rates low. They are hoping its spurs some investments in productive areas but sadly it is not. I have no prediction on this dollar sinking more than I saw it years ago coming to this because the escalating deficit. We are now $1.15142 for the Euro and remember it was at these level before we had that steep market sell off to the March lows..
Have a great Thanksgiving.
The news here is the dollar and nothing else, that's the reason why the FED is keeping rates low. They are hoping its spurs some investments in productive areas but sadly it is not. I have no prediction on this dollar sinking more than I saw it years ago coming to this because the escalating deficit. We are now $1.15142 for the Euro and remember it was at these level before we had that steep market sell off to the March lows..
Have a great Thanksgiving.
Bingo on Gold
Gold has finally hit it ultimate projection C point. I would be cautious here and out any long position here as we should get a rest point here.
Aren't technicals great!!!!!!!!!!!
Aren't technicals great!!!!!!!!!!!
Thanksgiving
Hope everyone have a peaceful holiday weekend.
I am doing some reading and see alot of people are full blown SHORT right here but one thing I will point out is that although we know that we are still in a bear market the market can remain irrational for a long period and kill you.
I rather wait till we get the signals that we can go full short and then execute, believe me missing a week wont kill you. The market wont drop from 10500 to 5000 in a week! there will be enough time to get on board. Just right here and now we are in chop mode and it is dangerous to pick a real medium term swing position without clarity.
MARKETJEDI
I am doing some reading and see alot of people are full blown SHORT right here but one thing I will point out is that although we know that we are still in a bear market the market can remain irrational for a long period and kill you.
I rather wait till we get the signals that we can go full short and then execute, believe me missing a week wont kill you. The market wont drop from 10500 to 5000 in a week! there will be enough time to get on board. Just right here and now we are in chop mode and it is dangerous to pick a real medium term swing position without clarity.
MARKETJEDI
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Low Rates
After a period of low rates in the Greenspan administrated FED we created numerous bubbles, the internet and housing bubble the two main ones. My radar for the last couple of months have been on the same with the new leadership at the FED.
I know the FED crosses a line of political ideology many times but this is exactly what I fear with extended period of low rates, more bubbles. Today @ 2pm the FED released their minutes from the last meeting and I was in shock. I will let you all know this very few people analyze the FED minutes as it is seen to them as backward looking BUT FED decisions are main to influence future actions. So when the FED change rates it takes awhile to filter throughout the system and see its effect that's why more should analyze these FED minutes.
Two important points of the FED minutes. First the FED explicitly said the economy will not be fully healthy for listen this another 5-6 years! Now that puts me on very cautious ground if I were a CEO of a fortune 1000 company and I would be inclined to continue to cut cost mainly through outsourcing and expansion. Secondly, that rolls into the second point that the FED touched on that of continued double digit unemployment.
I have said it time again, US is going the way of Europe not because as the right would put it we have elected a socialist government but on the contrary we are too focused on Wall Street on profit and not on the human toll on our society. I dont think we will ever see 5% unemployment because we are in a new phase economically where that will just be impossible. I must emphasize 100%, I real unemployment is around 17% and I think many will agree with me.
I hope the capitalists will find it in their hollow heart to change their focus for once of the betterment of the society and not just their pockets, in the mean time housing prices are still going down (1 in 4 mortgages are underwater), Gold is marching higher (8 straight days higher) and the US Dollar is still getting cracked.
I know the FED crosses a line of political ideology many times but this is exactly what I fear with extended period of low rates, more bubbles. Today @ 2pm the FED released their minutes from the last meeting and I was in shock. I will let you all know this very few people analyze the FED minutes as it is seen to them as backward looking BUT FED decisions are main to influence future actions. So when the FED change rates it takes awhile to filter throughout the system and see its effect that's why more should analyze these FED minutes.
Two important points of the FED minutes. First the FED explicitly said the economy will not be fully healthy for listen this another 5-6 years! Now that puts me on very cautious ground if I were a CEO of a fortune 1000 company and I would be inclined to continue to cut cost mainly through outsourcing and expansion. Secondly, that rolls into the second point that the FED touched on that of continued double digit unemployment.
I have said it time again, US is going the way of Europe not because as the right would put it we have elected a socialist government but on the contrary we are too focused on Wall Street on profit and not on the human toll on our society. I dont think we will ever see 5% unemployment because we are in a new phase economically where that will just be impossible. I must emphasize 100%, I real unemployment is around 17% and I think many will agree with me.
I hope the capitalists will find it in their hollow heart to change their focus for once of the betterment of the society and not just their pockets, in the mean time housing prices are still going down (1 in 4 mortgages are underwater), Gold is marching higher (8 straight days higher) and the US Dollar is still getting cracked.
Gold article
Gold is soaring, hitting new record highs almost daily. This C rise is going strong. Our initial $1200 target level for this year's rise has nearly been reached, but gold could go higher.
This is good news for all of us who have been invested in gold for the past eight years. But even for those of you who invested in more recent times, gold has been a good and profitable investment.
We feel strongly that this will continue in the months and years ahead. And there are many valid reasons why.
Most important, the unprecedented monetary policy currently in force is inflationary. The same is true of the weak U.S. dollar, negative interest rates, rising oil and commodities. Gold buying by central banks is also boosting the gold price higher.
Even though gold is still relatively unknown in mainstream investment circles, it's starting to attract some attention. As this interest grows, momentum buying will pick up and the exchange traded funds are another big positive, simply because they make it easy to buy gold. The improving economy is another positive factor.
SOME CALM AFTER THE STORM
Yes, there are problems.... serious problems. But that doesn't mean the world is going to fall apart next month or next year.
Pessimists are always going to paint the worst case scenario. Optimists will forever present the best case scenario. The reality is usually somewhere in between. But the markets and the facts always tell the story and that's what we try to focus on. So what are they currently telling us?
First, despite all that's happening, it's important to put things into perspective... and looking back, the overall situation was a lot worse last year compared to how it is now.
Remember, the entire financial world was on the verge of collapse last year as one huge company after another failed, or came close to it. Economies worldwide were dropping and so were all of the global stock markets. Fear and panic were rampant, and with reason. The crisis wiped out a greater chunk of household wealth than during the Great Depression. No one knew what to do...
Now fast forward to today...
For starters, nearly every economy in the world is growing, some obviously more than others. But the point is, they're all up. Stocks around the globe have also been rising this year and confidence is returning.
In the U.S., for instance, the economy grew 3½% in the third quarter. The leading economic indicator has been up for seven consecutive months and stocks, which lead the economy, have been rising for eight months. Manufacturing is on the mend, along with other important economic signs, all showing that the recession ended in June and the economy is now on its way up, albeit slowly.
In other countries, growth has been far more robust. In China, for example, the economy is growing at a 9% rate. So Korea is growing at the fastest pace in seven years. India is going strong, the same is true in most of Asia, Brazil, and to a lesser extent, Europe is improving too.
2009: Great gains
So far, based on 18 of the world's major stock markets, the gains this year have ranged between 11% and 92%. The average has been 31%. So even though the Dow Industrials is only up about 14%, the global stock markets are all telling us that ongoing growth lies ahead.
Since the markets look to the future, if that were not the case, these markets would be falling, not rising.
Okay, but what about commodities? The CRB commodity index has gained 24% this year. More impressive, copper has soared 101% and it's known as the global economic market barometer.
Oil has also surged. It's gained 75%. Very simply, if these two key commodities were not in big demand due to improving world economies, they wouldn't be rising the way they are. Instead, they too would be falling.
The main point is... these are not signs of recession and they're certainly not signaling a depression. In fact, they're telling us that deflation is not currently a concern.
On the contrary, these rising prices are more indicative of inflation downstream. That's especially true considering the weak dollar.
HOLD GOLD
Again and very simply, in a healthy economy annual deficits shouldn't be more than 3% of GDP. Once this percentage exceeds 5-6%, the currency of the country involved historically falls sharply.
Currently, this percentage has soared to about 10% in the U.S. and unfortunately, that pretty much puts the nails in the dollar's coffin. This alone will propel gold much higher.
These are the key reasons why we continue to recommend buying and holding gold. Whatever the ultimate, longer-term outcome, it's pretty clear that the situation is going to intensify and as it does, gold is going to be the main beneficiary and its bull market will endure well into the years ahead. That's been the case for thousands of years during times of economic uncertainty and gross imbalances, and it's now happening again.
Note that gold rose 56% and 58%, respectively, in the last two C rises (see Chart). So far, gold has risen 32% in the current C rise. Plus, its leading indicator still has room to rise further before it reaches the temporarily "too high" area. Since this rise is powerful, the gains this time around could be similar to those in 2006 and 2008. And if they are, gold could continue up to near the $1350 level before this C rise is over.
We'll be watching closely but for now, hold on to all of your metals related investments. Silver and gold shares are also surging, and so are most of the other metals. Silver is at a new 16 month high and it too is approaching our first target area. Gold and silver will both remain super strong above $1070 and $17.20.
This is from a printed article
This is good news for all of us who have been invested in gold for the past eight years. But even for those of you who invested in more recent times, gold has been a good and profitable investment.
We feel strongly that this will continue in the months and years ahead. And there are many valid reasons why.
Most important, the unprecedented monetary policy currently in force is inflationary. The same is true of the weak U.S. dollar, negative interest rates, rising oil and commodities. Gold buying by central banks is also boosting the gold price higher.
Even though gold is still relatively unknown in mainstream investment circles, it's starting to attract some attention. As this interest grows, momentum buying will pick up and the exchange traded funds are another big positive, simply because they make it easy to buy gold. The improving economy is another positive factor.
SOME CALM AFTER THE STORM
Yes, there are problems.... serious problems. But that doesn't mean the world is going to fall apart next month or next year.
Pessimists are always going to paint the worst case scenario. Optimists will forever present the best case scenario. The reality is usually somewhere in between. But the markets and the facts always tell the story and that's what we try to focus on. So what are they currently telling us?
First, despite all that's happening, it's important to put things into perspective... and looking back, the overall situation was a lot worse last year compared to how it is now.
Remember, the entire financial world was on the verge of collapse last year as one huge company after another failed, or came close to it. Economies worldwide were dropping and so were all of the global stock markets. Fear and panic were rampant, and with reason. The crisis wiped out a greater chunk of household wealth than during the Great Depression. No one knew what to do...
Now fast forward to today...
For starters, nearly every economy in the world is growing, some obviously more than others. But the point is, they're all up. Stocks around the globe have also been rising this year and confidence is returning.
In the U.S., for instance, the economy grew 3½% in the third quarter. The leading economic indicator has been up for seven consecutive months and stocks, which lead the economy, have been rising for eight months. Manufacturing is on the mend, along with other important economic signs, all showing that the recession ended in June and the economy is now on its way up, albeit slowly.
In other countries, growth has been far more robust. In China, for example, the economy is growing at a 9% rate. So Korea is growing at the fastest pace in seven years. India is going strong, the same is true in most of Asia, Brazil, and to a lesser extent, Europe is improving too.
2009: Great gains
So far, based on 18 of the world's major stock markets, the gains this year have ranged between 11% and 92%. The average has been 31%. So even though the Dow Industrials is only up about 14%, the global stock markets are all telling us that ongoing growth lies ahead.
Since the markets look to the future, if that were not the case, these markets would be falling, not rising.
Okay, but what about commodities? The CRB commodity index has gained 24% this year. More impressive, copper has soared 101% and it's known as the global economic market barometer.
Oil has also surged. It's gained 75%. Very simply, if these two key commodities were not in big demand due to improving world economies, they wouldn't be rising the way they are. Instead, they too would be falling.
The main point is... these are not signs of recession and they're certainly not signaling a depression. In fact, they're telling us that deflation is not currently a concern.
On the contrary, these rising prices are more indicative of inflation downstream. That's especially true considering the weak dollar.
HOLD GOLD
Again and very simply, in a healthy economy annual deficits shouldn't be more than 3% of GDP. Once this percentage exceeds 5-6%, the currency of the country involved historically falls sharply.
Currently, this percentage has soared to about 10% in the U.S. and unfortunately, that pretty much puts the nails in the dollar's coffin. This alone will propel gold much higher.
These are the key reasons why we continue to recommend buying and holding gold. Whatever the ultimate, longer-term outcome, it's pretty clear that the situation is going to intensify and as it does, gold is going to be the main beneficiary and its bull market will endure well into the years ahead. That's been the case for thousands of years during times of economic uncertainty and gross imbalances, and it's now happening again.
Note that gold rose 56% and 58%, respectively, in the last two C rises (see Chart). So far, gold has risen 32% in the current C rise. Plus, its leading indicator still has room to rise further before it reaches the temporarily "too high" area. Since this rise is powerful, the gains this time around could be similar to those in 2006 and 2008. And if they are, gold could continue up to near the $1350 level before this C rise is over.
We'll be watching closely but for now, hold on to all of your metals related investments. Silver and gold shares are also surging, and so are most of the other metals. Silver is at a new 16 month high and it too is approaching our first target area. Gold and silver will both remain super strong above $1070 and $17.20.
This is from a printed article
Monday, November 23, 2009
trend
Seem like we having a new trend of gapping up on mondays and not looking back. Look for tuesday for us to pull back and test the gap left over from today. Not much to report on with these gap and go type of days with little volume.
On another Robert Prechter said to his readers that you should be short for the long term here because this is all BS. I am just reporting what I read I am not making a recommendation whatsoever but you all know Prechter is such a mentor for me.
On another Robert Prechter said to his readers that you should be short for the long term here because this is all BS. I am just reporting what I read I am not making a recommendation whatsoever but you all know Prechter is such a mentor for me.
Early monday
Folks remember this shorten holiday week is usually an upward biased week so take careful note of that trend.
Gold off to the races again.
Gold off to the races again.
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Saturday, November 21, 2009
Markets Update
We are in a difficult period to gauge what we are doing structure wise in the markets.
It's just one of those situations where we won't truly know what structure has traced until after the fact, which is not uncommon to most technicians.
It makes it hard for position traders, and to some extent, swing traders like myself to position a solid trade due to the tighten ranges here.
The 15 minute pit session chart shows an island reversal. This is basically an exhaustion gap that is followed by a breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
I am counting the move off the 1112.25 H as a 5 wave structure. You could argue for a 3, but I think it should count as a 5.
This implies that after a retrace process we should see an additional 5 waves down, at minimum.
It appears that we have 5 small waves up from the 1085.25 L, which I have labeled as a sub-minuette degree a or i.
Drilling down further, we can see that it appears that micro [A] is complete. We should get a small [B] retracement (levels on chart) when globex opens, followed by a [C] leg lower.
At that point, I would expect to see a 5 wave structure higher of sub-minuette degree.
Any trade through the 1085.25 L would invalidate this view.
The weekly view suggests that we should see additional downside pressure on price.
This past week saw price action fill the long standing gap from October 08.
Also to note we had a cycle high due and a new moon which usual signals a reversal in the market. All this suggests we may see lower price, though never a certainty.
Friday, November 20, 2009
Soybeans
A breakout week for beans. Price traded through the 1029.50 H, and more importantly, the 1041.50 H.
This more than likely signals that primary [C] of a double zigzag of cycle c has commenced.
There is still an outside chance that we are still tracing primary [B], though I believe those odds are low.
Upside targets are where (3) = (1) at 1100.50, and (3) = 161.8% of (1) at 1192.75. [C] = [A] at 1174.
Drilling down intraday, you see that price is having a struggle getting past the 1050 level. This happens to be the 127.2% expansion of (2), which does get my attention, but my guess is it will be short lived as resistance.
Bottom line - It was sort of a messy start to this leg, but things appear to be progressing in impulsive fashion. I am near-term bullish this market until proven otherwise.
Wheat
Big breakout week in the wheat market.
Price confidently traded through the primary [1] high, suggesting that primary wave [3] was underway, and more specific, a "third of third."
The alternative is that [2] is still tracing and this is nothing more than a (C) leg on a coke binge.
I believe this little pullback is nothing more than a smaller degree 4 wave, possible of minor degree, though it may very well be intermediate.
Since we have decisively broken out of the down channel, we should expect it to become support if price were to trade that low.
Notice how price has supported on the 200 sma after breaking through.
Upside targets include [3] = [1] at 623.25, and [3] = 161.8% of [1] at 706.75.
Bottom line - I am near-term very bullish this market. Any trade through the intermediate (1) H of 528.25 would quickly change this view.
BINGO
Bingo on the 1083 support- Today is option expiration and that means it is day off for me. Most manipulated day of the month for trading and it makes no sense to even look at a day like today..
I would love to see this range expand, it is impossible to trade a narrow range.
AGAIN WATCH 1075 IF WE BREAK 1083 TODAY
I would love to see this range expand, it is impossible to trade a narrow range.
AGAIN WATCH 1075 IF WE BREAK 1083 TODAY
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Recovery
Where is the great recover the talking heads talking about???
AOL just announce they laying off 1/3 of their workforce
AETNA had lay offs yesterday.
Again where is this great recovery and new bull market
AOL just announce they laying off 1/3 of their workforce
AETNA had lay offs yesterday.
Again where is this great recovery and new bull market
Action
Funny how the patterns are saying higher but the volume as we have noted just won't back up the patterns. That's why in those circumstances you stay out of the way, this is just too choppy either way to take a stand.
Next support 1083 then 1075
Next support 1083 then 1075
Action
Very interesting action early- Remember to bracket the first hour range and see where we break
S&P
man what a mess!
Another choppy day yesterday the bulls defending 1100 once again on the S&P 500 Futures, but the futures are below that level overnight. A late day grind brought the futures out with a slight gain on the day.
The market appears to be gasping for water, but it does not appear that the bears want to risk much trying to put an end to this upside. The E wave count suggests we should get one more push up here (how many times are we going to say that:)), but as I said before, we are in a cycle confluence along with a structural resistance zone, so a pullback from around here has good odds, which I said last week, but the obvious depth is the big question.
Another choppy day yesterday the bulls defending 1100 once again on the S&P 500 Futures, but the futures are below that level overnight. A late day grind brought the futures out with a slight gain on the day.
The market appears to be gasping for water, but it does not appear that the bears want to risk much trying to put an end to this upside. The E wave count suggests we should get one more push up here (how many times are we going to say that:)), but as I said before, we are in a cycle confluence along with a structural resistance zone, so a pullback from around here has good odds, which I said last week, but the obvious depth is the big question.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Level on the Upside
S&P 1121 on the cash is a 127% Fibonacci external retracement number and should be resistance point and next target for the technicians.
Also watch 1098.50 on the downside
Also watch 1098.50 on the downside
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Great action
Great action for a boring day !! Why do I say this? today is a consolidation day but I am seeing some patterns that are signaling higher yes higher. I am out of this action because of the volume but patterns never lie.
Oil also looks like a bull flag but the question is whether it needs to develop the structure more before it moves high.
Gold geez what can I say - years ago I remember telling people gold would goto $600 when it was 250, which I owned that from $250 :) but such is life.
Oil also looks like a bull flag but the question is whether it needs to develop the structure more before it moves high.
Gold geez what can I say - years ago I remember telling people gold would goto $600 when it was 250, which I owned that from $250 :) but such is life.
Monday, November 16, 2009
Sugar and OJ
Wow these commodities have been on fire. Sugar has double since January and Orange Juice is up 68%.
WOW
WOW
Something interesting
Alot of people are looking for a top but this is dangerous. This morning on CNBC Gartman proclaimed he is out of the market because last month at lower levels they thought stocks were overpriced. The point here is that's why the volume is low because the smarter guys believe prices are such.
For all my years trading I have learnt not to look for the exact bottom or the exact top IF you believe we are close to a bottom or top stay out till be get the turning point and confirmation there will be alot of time to profit from a reversal.
Good trading today folks and I would be shorting this gap up at least for a trade.
MARKETJEDI
For all my years trading I have learnt not to look for the exact bottom or the exact top IF you believe we are close to a bottom or top stay out till be get the turning point and confirmation there will be alot of time to profit from a reversal.
Good trading today folks and I would be shorting this gap up at least for a trade.
MARKETJEDI
Gold
Gold is again making new high- Seems like the folks who want 1500 on Gold will get it, who knows!
Saturday, November 14, 2009
My thoughts
I have been on and off this week due to a personal matter but I told myself I would take 3 hours today to do some homework so readers don't think I deserted them. I posted updates for crude, bonds, dollar, corn etc but I would like now to address the indexes.
It has been tough trading the indexes for the last 3 months but one thing to always remember is that the market follows trends. The trends of earnings runnings and the seasonality of the market must never be underestimated.
Although we have screamed much since March 09, we are moving on much lower volume with negative divergences on all technical parameters like breadth. There is a high possibility of a peak here BUT not the peak in this bear market rally, YES BEAR market rally. After doing some initial work, I have some target about 90 points higher here on the S&P. Do we get there, possible but I would be shorting there 1000% if we hit 1172/8 area. We need to remember here folks that although it sounds and looks good that the market is grinding higher we must look at the technicals and fundamentals of the markets and that of the overall economy. Big money are all viewing this is a bear market and to be honest it is! just look at the earnings, etc, they are terrible. If you really analyze it, the S&P is now more expensive here than when it was 1300, believe it or not! and the value of the almighty dollar does make the scenario any better.
Now how will it play out? Hmmm only a guess here but I would love to see us make a technical high here in the next few days and then get a pullback below that 1025 low we did recently. What that will do is shake out the weak longs and then we would amount another rally maybe in the Spring to higher highs. After that I would definitely looking to short and when I say short I mean big time no holds barred as this would be the start of the great bear wave 3 in my opinion, which will blow investor's confidence out of the water.
Folks the banks are not performing here. I think one of the real big banks are going to suffer huge losses in the next 6 months and I have my bet on two in particular but I will update on them later. Remember Wall Street want to cash in on their bonuses so don't expect us to crash and burn before end of year it WON'T happen. They need to keep the musical chairs running to collect from the dump mom and pops investors.
I would sit on my hands if I were a long term investor in equities here. I would be very very cautious here.
It has been tough trading the indexes for the last 3 months but one thing to always remember is that the market follows trends. The trends of earnings runnings and the seasonality of the market must never be underestimated.
Although we have screamed much since March 09, we are moving on much lower volume with negative divergences on all technical parameters like breadth. There is a high possibility of a peak here BUT not the peak in this bear market rally, YES BEAR market rally. After doing some initial work, I have some target about 90 points higher here on the S&P. Do we get there, possible but I would be shorting there 1000% if we hit 1172/8 area. We need to remember here folks that although it sounds and looks good that the market is grinding higher we must look at the technicals and fundamentals of the markets and that of the overall economy. Big money are all viewing this is a bear market and to be honest it is! just look at the earnings, etc, they are terrible. If you really analyze it, the S&P is now more expensive here than when it was 1300, believe it or not! and the value of the almighty dollar does make the scenario any better.
Now how will it play out? Hmmm only a guess here but I would love to see us make a technical high here in the next few days and then get a pullback below that 1025 low we did recently. What that will do is shake out the weak longs and then we would amount another rally maybe in the Spring to higher highs. After that I would definitely looking to short and when I say short I mean big time no holds barred as this would be the start of the great bear wave 3 in my opinion, which will blow investor's confidence out of the water.
Folks the banks are not performing here. I think one of the real big banks are going to suffer huge losses in the next 6 months and I have my bet on two in particular but I will update on them later. Remember Wall Street want to cash in on their bonuses so don't expect us to crash and burn before end of year it WON'T happen. They need to keep the musical chairs running to collect from the dump mom and pops investors.
I would sit on my hands if I were a long term investor in equities here. I would be very very cautious here.
Crude
The crude market corrective continues. We have now registered 17 trading day's in a sideways market.
Although this chop has been difficult to discern from a pattern standpoint, it has been very tradeable with plenty of range.
We show a simple (a)(b)(c) , though it's possible we are tracing a combination.
We have broken free of the 20 sma and appear headed for a meeting with the 50 sma, which is at 74.57 and rising.
Conclusion should see one more leg down to complete the structure
Dollar
New Lows in the dollar again. It appears that we had 5 waves down off of the spike high of 77.50. If it is a minute degree, structure would be complete. Any degree less, argues for a 1st wave.
Conclusion we will see more new lows
Gold
The gold market continues to subdivide higher, reaching new highs in the process.
It's apparent that we are getting very close to this leg finishing. I am assuming that this will complete a minute degree wave [v] coming out of the triangle. Remember that triangles precede finishing moves.
If this interpretation is correct, we will complete an intermediate degree (B) wave at this moves conclusion.
I am anxious to see what type of price action we get when this leg finishes subdividing. Whatever it completes should be tradable.
Sentiment continues to maintain over 90% bulls according to the DSI readings.
Bottom line - We keep going up until we don't. If I were long, and I'm not, I would use Friday's low as a stop and perhaps trail it up.
Corn
The corn market traded higher this past week after retesting the broken channel.
I interpret structure to still be tracing intermediate (4) of primary [A].
It's possible that wave (4) has completed and (5) has started. I don't believe this is the case though.
Being a 4 wave, there is always the chance of a triangle or some type of complex pattern.
Should (4)'s price low be in, we can start to get upside projections. (5) = 61.8% of (1) - (3) at 428.25.
RSI has done a good job of maintaining its uptrend line. We should expect to see our customary divergence when (5) completes.
A critical level remains the price extreme of (1) at 347.60. Should price trade through that level, then we would have to take another look at structure.
Bottom line - I'm expecting some more grinding away in this wave (4) this upcoming week.
Soybeans
The bean market traded higher this past week after bouncing off the daily 50 sma.
Interpretation remains intermediate wave (2) of primary [C] of a double zigzag cycle b wave.
Price action off the 951.25 L does not appear impulsive. This suggests that (2) needs additional work. Should this be the case, the channel will be in jeopardy.
The 880.25 L is a critical level. Any trade through this price invalidates this leg being a (2).
A triangle may still be in play, whether an [X] or [B].
The retracement levels of (1) are on the chart.
Bottom line - It appears that wave (3) will need to wait a little longer. I'm expecting downside pressure for the upcoming week.
Wheat
Wheat market enjoyed nice upside price action this past week.
Interpretation of the structure is an intermediate (2) of primary [A].
It is unclear if we are still tracing minor B of (2), or if wave (2) has actually completed. My guess is that we are in the finishing stages of minor B , with C down to follow.
The alternative is that (2) completed at the 487.75 L and we have put in some smaller degree 1's and 2's.
Notice that we are back at the channel. This would be a good spot to complete B.
Any trade through the 574.75 H would signal that (3) has commenced.
The dotted vertical lines in the RSI pane represent Gann dates. The last 2 have been spot on for very tradable lows. The next date takes place on December 2nd.
Bottom line - I'm expecting price to start retracing very soon. The retracement levels are on the chart.
Friday, November 13, 2009
S&P
Obviously a double divergence on the MACD as of yesterday, but unless we get momentum and volume that confirms the downside pressure, this pullback must once again be looked at for a buyable dip. NO!!!!, I AM NOT SAYING IT’S A BUY HERE! I am saying that unless we see something different than the recent pull-ins we have seen, then we should not fight the trend. No, I haven’t changed my big picture view which is that we are in a BEAR market, but looking for the end of wave 2 and the start of wave 3 has been a futile effort for the bears so far. If we are indeed about to start wave 3, there will be plenty of opportunities to get on board once it starts. The obsession of getting in at the beginning can cause much more harm than good to your port.
Anyway, I’ll be watching an early push up for a retest down to Thursday’s lows at a minimum, with the next support line at 1074 basis the S&P Futures. if we gap down, then I'll be looking for a long side fade as well.
Have a great weekend
Anyway, I’ll be watching an early push up for a retest down to Thursday’s lows at a minimum, with the next support line at 1074 basis the S&P Futures. if we gap down, then I'll be looking for a long side fade as well.
Have a great weekend
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Same old story
Folks keep on watch the meaningless DOW and mean while the real story is staring them in the eye. Gold fresh new highs and the US dollar at a 15 month low. The low prolonged interest rates is essentially weakening the currency as it is look upon the deep pockets as a sign of weakness that the FED is not willing to raise interest rates.
Gold is up almost 30% year to date and that's nothing to sneeze about and is outperforming the market over the last 5 years at a rate of more than 10 times.
We will see what happens but I am sure this house of cards will fall. I have a family emergency and I am just popping in.
Stay light like the volume :)
MARKETJEDI
Gold is up almost 30% year to date and that's nothing to sneeze about and is outperforming the market over the last 5 years at a rate of more than 10 times.
We will see what happens but I am sure this house of cards will fall. I have a family emergency and I am just popping in.
Stay light like the volume :)
MARKETJEDI
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Busy and emergency
I dont know if I will be around tomorrow as an emergency came up today and I have to be away possible for the rest of the week. The market rally looks tired but we have been saying that for awhile with no substantial pullbacks. What I am looking at now is the seasonality of the end of year Wall Street bonus game, that will no doubt delay any deep pullback just like last year.
Very difficult to call the equities here as buying in here the risk reward is not that great, though I think we can grind much higher but I am not going to place any bets here. I will wait and see how it pans out. Gold and Oil what great movers. this year is panning out. January we were at 9000 but dived to 6600 now we are standing at 10200, what a crazy ride!
Very difficult to call the equities here as buying in here the risk reward is not that great, though I think we can grind much higher but I am not going to place any bets here. I will wait and see how it pans out. Gold and Oil what great movers. this year is panning out. January we were at 9000 but dived to 6600 now we are standing at 10200, what a crazy ride!
Monday, November 9, 2009
Gold and Oil
Look on those suckers go- I have been on the phone all morning so I have just come around-
hmmm
hmmm
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Crude
Watch crude carefully this week if we trade lower into wednesday time frame I would be a buyer- Level lower looks like 74 but I would be a buyer there. I don't think the push on the upside is over
US Dollar
he greenback had a huge spike higher Tuesday, before spending the rest of the week retracing the move off the 75.085 L.
It appears that early morning spike was a "thrust" out of a (iv)th wave triangle. If correct, the 77.50 H completed a 5 wave structure that would be labeled minute [i].
The ensuing retracement would be the wave [ii] retracement. It is unclear if [ii] has finished or not. It has retraced 78.6% thus far, a perfect wave retracement in my opinion.
Notice that RSI has failed to breakout of the 50% level once again. This has become the rock of Gibraltar.
Also notice that price could not successfully close the 50 sma.
Both of these appear to be setup to give way when we get our next 5 waves up.
The 75.085 L is a critical level for this assessment. Should we trade through that price, we obviously have something wrong.
Bonds- 30 YR
The 30 Yr failed its retest of the 50 sma, which resulted in nice downside price action for the week.
The 50% retracement level of the move off the 111-23 L, which I have labeled (X)?, supported price again. I believe this level gives way rather soon.
Equality comes in at 114-16. The minimum downside objective is 116-26.
My guess is that price wants to test the 114-26 pivot. The 78.6% retracement level is in the same area.
The bigger picture still remains unclear to me. If the 30 YR did put in an intermediate (X) wave at the 123-25 H, this would mean there is another (A)(B)(C) that should play out to the downside.
Bottom line - I still expect to see another 5 waves down of minor degree, at minimum. We will reassess at that point.
Saturday, November 7, 2009
Beans
The bean market continued with its wave (2) retracement this past week.
Interpretation remains intermediate wave (2) of primary [C] of a double zigzag cycle b wave. The primary [B] wave triangle is still my alternate view.
Drilling down intraday shows a very nice ABC corrective so far for wave (2). Price had a nice deep 88.6% retrace.
Perhaps it will want the reciprocal, 112.8% of A, for this C leg. This comes in at 944.
Other targets are where C = A at 953.75, and the 161.8% projection of A at 911.25.
The retracement levels of (1) are on the chart.
As stated last week, I am still hopeful that the channel can maintain its integrity during this retracement process. It has supported twice thus far, making it vulnerable for a break, should price reach it.
The key levels for this upcoming week include the 880.25 L, as well as the 1029.50 H. Any trade through that high will likely signal that wave (3) has begun, assuming our assessment is correct.
I maintain a keen watch of the continued RSI divergence.
Bottom line - I expect wave (2) to come to a close shortly. We should witness nice upside price action with the onset of (3).
Corn
The corn market continued retracing its leg off the 302 L this past week.
Interpretation remains that this market is tracing an intermediate degree (4) wave of primary [A].
I still have concerns about this (4) wave. As discussed last week, it appears to be tracing a zigzag. After such a deep A leg, we are left with little room for C. We did have a nice B leg up that helps.
The price extreme of (1) is 347.60. Should price trade through that level, I would have to re-think my assessment of the structure.
The 50 sma has turned up, and is now above the 347.60 level. This may possibly help support price when they meet.
Notice that RSI has reached the upward sloping trend line, which dates back to early June. This may provide support as well.
Don't forget about the "point of recognition" at the 353 level, an additional possible level of support.
C = 61.8% of A at 365.25. The 78.6% projection of A sits at 356. The 61.8% retracement of (3) comes in at 349.50.
Bottom line - Until 347.60 is traded through, I maintain my bullish stance.
Friday, November 6, 2009
Prechter
I am the biggest FAN of this guy! maybe because I am also a technical analsyst but hear what he has to say
Gold and Market
Well according to my work sometime next week should be a high. It has been very difficult the last two weeks in the market to pinpoint the cycles as we have had earnings and the FED meeting which has distorted the analysis but it should still be in the trend never the less.
Gold just running on nitro here and been talking about gold along time and it should have made it new adjusted high. This weekend I will try to see where the think will pause but we have to get cautious on Gold when the dollar start to make a rebound on it oversold stand. Also after this earnings season I will be doing my regular longer term analysis of where I see stuff in the next 3-6 months if I can.
Have a great weekend-
Gold just running on nitro here and been talking about gold along time and it should have made it new adjusted high. This weekend I will try to see where the think will pause but we have to get cautious on Gold when the dollar start to make a rebound on it oversold stand. Also after this earnings season I will be doing my regular longer term analysis of where I see stuff in the next 3-6 months if I can.
Have a great weekend-
Unemployment rate
Unemployment rate is now over 10% again I thought the recession is over!! No folks that 10% I am telling you is so underestimated that I think that figure is more like 20%, Yes 20%. I said it many times U.S. unemployment will mirror those of the Europeans and there is nothing that can be done.
We will be looking at double digit unemployment for a long time and the government will have no choice but to implement just like the Europeans lengthy unemployment benefits. Why do you think the FED said they wont raise rates for now, they see the problems but the biggest problems is that the wheel of the economy is the banks and they are hoarding funds instead of leading it.
The FED should start it own consumer division and lend to small companies and individuals because the banks are hellbound on sending this economy in a deep end in the name of capitalism. Call it what you will but I want more over sight because it is the detriment of the economy if we don't.
Think about it one second we the consumer are paying up to 30% interest rates that the banks got at zero%, is that fair. We should stop the madness of these banks NOW !!!!!!!!
P.S. I can't believe banks were getting H1N1 vaccines when we have suffering people waiting in lines for shot, what the hell is happening to our humanity
We will be looking at double digit unemployment for a long time and the government will have no choice but to implement just like the Europeans lengthy unemployment benefits. Why do you think the FED said they wont raise rates for now, they see the problems but the biggest problems is that the wheel of the economy is the banks and they are hoarding funds instead of leading it.
The FED should start it own consumer division and lend to small companies and individuals because the banks are hellbound on sending this economy in a deep end in the name of capitalism. Call it what you will but I want more over sight because it is the detriment of the economy if we don't.
Think about it one second we the consumer are paying up to 30% interest rates that the banks got at zero%, is that fair. We should stop the madness of these banks NOW !!!!!!!!
P.S. I can't believe banks were getting H1N1 vaccines when we have suffering people waiting in lines for shot, what the hell is happening to our humanity
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Boring
I guess I had a heartache for a reason, kept me away from this boring market action. Gap and go off the numbers this morning but that's it, nothing exciting, very difficult to trade a day like this.
Oh well it all can't be exciting everyday as you know.
Oh well it all can't be exciting everyday as you know.
Thursday
Waiting on the unemployment numbers but I doubt I will be doing much market stuff today as I work up with a terrible headache.
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
What I am looking at
Nothing for me today and yesterday because of FED meeting. Just watching and doing other stuff that I need to complete - Here is a 240min chart I am following
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
BINGO- GOLD 1076
Finally hit its target and actually went over so you all know what that means- higher prices are coming.
Updates
I will be busy today and tomorrow so just a heads up on the markets. Yesterday's bounce was 100% a spot to get short! What occurred the last two weeks was just our regular trend of earnings season and with most of the heavy weights out of the way we are back to analyzing the economic data.
Watch that 1023 area and below that we could head down to 1012 very quickly but as you know I am looking for us to clip below 1000 very shortly.
Right here I am totally confused by oils movement but I am sure it will resolve itself soon. Also Gold looks like it wants to finally tackle it triangle target of 1076, we will see soon enough.
MARKETJEDI
Watch that 1023 area and below that we could head down to 1012 very quickly but as you know I am looking for us to clip below 1000 very shortly.
Right here I am totally confused by oils movement but I am sure it will resolve itself soon. Also Gold looks like it wants to finally tackle it triangle target of 1076, we will see soon enough.
MARKETJEDI
Monday, November 2, 2009
Funny
They ramped us up to +130 points on the DOW now we are only +10. If we don't bounce around here I would not put it pass us trading down to the 1022/23 level today or overnight.
This week-
Watch out for S&P 1000 this week!!!!!!!
I do believe the evidence overwhelmingly supports the case for an intermediate top being in place.
If I'm correct in my assessment, wave [ii] will be a "suckers rally." Wave [ii] completion should provide a very nice shorting opportunity, and a place to get rid of your longs.
I do believe the evidence overwhelmingly supports the case for an intermediate top being in place.
If I'm correct in my assessment, wave [ii] will be a "suckers rally." Wave [ii] completion should provide a very nice shorting opportunity, and a place to get rid of your longs.
Sunday, November 1, 2009
US Dollar
Strong impulsive upside price action for the bucky this past week.
It appears that structure has traced 5 waves up off of the 75.08 L. The question now is - has the dollar bottomed?
Though it's much to early to make that determination, everything is in place for this to be the case.
Notice how RSI tried to break out of the 50% level once again. Will it be successful this time? My guess is that it will, but it may need to pull back again to get a running start.
We are right at the upper boundary of the channel with the 50 sma directly overhead. Both of these are potential resistance.
The 78.085 L is critical support for a bullish case. Should price trade through that level, then obviously, the trend has not changed.
The 77.74 H would be the next logical important pivot that needs to be taken out to the upside.
Throwing the fibs on the impulse wave, assuming it is complete, yields targets of 77.615 (100%) and 78.629 (161.8%).
Bottom line - We should see another 5 wave move up, once the retracement process is finished, if not already. Regardless of whether "the bottom" is in, we should see higher price near-term.
Bonds- 30 YR
The bond complex caught a bid late in the week after weakness early on.
Notice how the 30 YR put in a reversal candle (bull engulfment) on Thursday, the same day we had an explosive equity market. Friday followed through to the upside, finding resistance at the 50 sma.
The lower boundary of the channel was broken, which setup a successful test of the 117-18 pivot. The 50% retracement level was in the same area.
It appears that we have a 5 wave structure down off the 123-25 H. If indeed a 5, then we know, at minimum, we will see another 5. I have labeled this leg as a minor degree 1 or part of an X wave.
Bottom line - I expect to see lower price after a retracement process.
Crude-
Strange week in the crude pits. Big reversal Thursday, followed by bigger reversal Friday.
Friday's price action confirmed my suspicion of this corrective being over.
I will keep my interpretation that we finished a minute degree [i] wave at the 81.99 H, though it is an educated guess at this point.
Support is very near with the 20 sma at 76.59. I have also placed the retracement levels on the chart.
I am considering the possibility that minor B has yet to complete, though it is a low probability at this point.
One thing is apparent, the price action off the 81.99 H is corrective - not impulsive. This suggests that we should see new recovery highs in this market once the retracement process is complete.
The dotted vertical lines on the chart are placed at the pivot lows starting with the wave (A) bottom. Notice the fairly nice symmetry between these pivot lows, though not perfect by any means.
Should this symmetry extend out to the next pivot, it appears that we are somewhere around the halfway mark currently.
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