Next few months

Next few months if we are in this magic chop fest wave could prove very difficult to trade. As I said this is the most zig zag wave in the elliott wave theory and therefore only the best traders will get it spot on. It will past though and the next wave should be a easy wave down for the bears. The question we should try and answer here is where and when this wave will end!
I think the first stop on the upside is 875 and from there we might run to the 1045 level but I am not making a call on than now, extremely difficult to tell. Lets play it close and look out day to day as it is almost impossible to make trend calls with this administration out on the tv everyday with some other plan to move the market.

Some timing stuff

I think we could see a little top tomorrow. Why ? on my daily charts it is signaling a peak today or tomorrow as I would be lightening up on any long I have if I did. Dangerous to say go short but we should get a pullback based on the daily charts

Levels to Watch

S&P 808 and 801 are important levels to watch. My gut felling tells me we want 780 area on the S&P and today's 792 might have been that test but who knows.
Watch that 801 level again. if tomorrow we test it and dont hold we will see some weakness belows today lows.
Watch for resistance at the 825 level again if we go up initially tomorrow.

Interesting action

These last three weeks in the market has been very difficult to analyze. Often when you see movement like this it usually means we are in a consolidation cycle or wave and we are merely pushing and pulling between the bulls and the bears. Today action is a perfect example why you have to stay out of the market till we break out of this consolidation. We gave back 300 points on the DOW and then rallied 100+points to end the day positive. Now if you weren't a market watcher you might be like oh the DOW was +89 today but it was one wild ride.
I think we will be in this torture till earnings seasons next month and also till we get the news out about the mark to market and whatever other kind of manipulation they want to put on the market. The problem is near term folks will side step the problems underlining the markets and think these actions will help and send us higher but in the longer term is will just be disasterous because the market MUST be allowed to correct itself without intervention, all they are basically doing is delaying the inevitable and for most of us get killed once again
There is a good shot from the charts I am looking at we are close to a intermediate top here but the problem is that we have windows dressing and most manager will try to fudge their books as usual because March was an up month. What happens in April will all be earnings related, I hope the big guns of GE, Microsoft, Google, Apple and the Banks report good news are we could fall hard. My best guess is we will push up into earnings and half way through we start selling off. Right here is NO MAN'S LAND and it must be respected there is nothing we can do till the market really tips it hands. Play light as it is total chop fest out there.


MARKETJEDI

Market selling off

Just if no one realizes the market is selling off on news that the US latest issuance of Bonds were poorly received.
This is very very bad news for the administration who is trying to raise funds to implement stimulus packages. This will put a shot in the US dollar and as I have been saying this is one of the reasons why the US dollar weakness is the main thing to fear in the future.

Chop Chop and Chop

Not much to talk about here folks but dont expect us to move down into the end of month, Why? because we will have one of the first upside window dressing in months. The fact that the financials and other beaten down sectors have performed well many fund managers will want to end them to their books to look like they are smart.
Also I think wave theorist are wrong on the current wave count in the market. Most are thinking we crash and go to new lows here BUT I dont think so. I really think we chop around or grind higher till we get news on the market to market decision, then their will be the top of this run up.
Right now folks is a time just to kick back and watch, yesterday was testament to this, there will be tons of opportunities soon but right now we are in chopfest mode.



MARKETJEDI