Can't wait for next week

This volume is just anemic, I can't wait for next week to get a good gauge of the market. Dont get all bullish on this low volume upside because when the real money comes in we might be in sell mode. I heard something today on Fast Money about traders buying out of the money calls on the financials and we must take note of that. In my opinion financials are dead money but maybe some traders think they might get alittle bounce.
How to play this is my usual SKF long. SKF below $105 is a gift as we have played here many times for over $20+ profits. Today it closed @ $116 and if its gap down tomorrow I might poke it again.
This quarter will be the worst quarter for the financials and maybe some think because of that we might find a bottom here, no chance in hell.
The dollar looks like it wants higher and that should bode bad for the commodity sector. Oil looks like it might break $110 this time on this test lower. I would not be surprise if it did after today's action. Lets see what the hurricane has in store for us on that front.

Have a safe holiday if I dont post till monday.

Disturbing News- FDIC

The FDIC is announcing that they are considering borrowing funds from the Treasury in lieu of 9 Bank Failures.
That's bad because I think there are alot more bank failures to come. I guess all they will do is print money and put the nation in more debt for future generations

Banks

Banks are trying to move higher today. Many are trading at high of day at noon here.

Low Volume

Nothing but low volume- My best guess today is we go up as we had a chance to sell off but no volume came in so maybe we drift up.
This is just painful with little or no volume.


MARKETJEDI

FDIC releases news on troubled banks

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080826/ap_on_bi_ge/troubled_banks

OK folks

Ok folks, we are in a very low volume week here. The market can go anywhere on a dime. Only thing I am watching is a break of that 1250 on the S&P and if so I think we test 1200 in a rush. Right now I am flat except for SKF and TWM, I have no options here. I rather wait and see what happens.


MARKETJEDI.

Low Volume week

Sorry about the few posting this past week but I have been really busy and have been watching the Olympics.
Today I got out of 3/4 of my SKF position but still holding my TWM. I think we might bounce a few days in the financials and possibly test the low 1300s on the S&P. I dont think we go very far from there and I would be looking for shorts to enter here.
Russell might go and test 755 to 770 area which would set up a very very nice short there. If you have the stomach for it TWM would be a good place into this zone.
I suspect TECH will fall very very soon. APPLE and RIMM are my two best names short here. I will send out a trade call early next week 100% on two other stock I believe will be 1/2 the price they are now in the next 6 months (Remember FNM and Citibank.

We will see soon enough


MARKETJEDI

LEHMAN

Rumors are abound that Lehman could be a buyout target @ $20, Who the heck knows and that will just be a mid term high for that stock.
The business model for these companies are totally over and nothing will help them long term

Market

Cramer calling for the July lows to be held on the Financials. We will see if it gets a short term bounce and just dies again or this time it is real. You already know where i stand no shot in the universe those lows hold. Give me my 200 on SKF again !!!!!!!!!!!

Anyways GS just crushed here anyone notice. GS going to $125 before it is all over and nothing can save it. Citibank down again, Wachovia down again, LEH down again. DONT buy the financials, DONT.

Gold and Oil taking the commodities higher today and I think they have momentum to the upside here.



MARKETJEDI

TRADE CALL UPDATE :SKF

Well how about another $20+ point winner. Think they are screwing around with it, should be trading much higher from what I calculated. Lets see if we can bust out here in the next few days on it .

Oil

Well they cheated on bought Oil $1 before the 200ma. First resistance should be $126.
Everyone knows I am a Oil bull and I think Oil longer term is a $200 commodity but it sure wont happen overnight.

See You There


MARKETJEDI

Hmmmm

Financials are DEAD money. FNM is going to my ultimate $1 target, when I spoke a couple of months ago that FNM would be $5 it was at $31, go check the blog. That is the fact and it happened. FRE the same DEAD money.
Now for something alot of people don't want to hear. WM going to $1, WB my thoughts is in trouble and will go down to $4, Citibank $6. Yep I am very bearish on the financials. Again I say IF you are buying financials you are going to kick yourself in the ass.
Where do we go next. I think we get a huge down move before the election, my bet is that it comes in September but who knows.


MARKETJEDI

FNM death

FNM going to my target--- DEATH to FNM.

Turnaround today

Lets see if the bulls can put in a positive day today. I think there is a good chance they do

GOLDMAN CUTS LEHMAN

Goldman cuts projections for Lehman, others
Tuesday August 19, 5:56 pm ET
Goldman Sachs analyst cuts 3rd-qtr projections for Lehman Brothers, others as more losses seen

NEW YORK (AP) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. received more bad news on Tuesday after another analyst projected that the investment bank will unveil a big third-quarter loss.

William Tanona, an analyst at Goldman Sachs, said after the market closed he believes Lehman will post a $2.5 billion-to-$3.5 billion loss during the quarter. He also believes that any recovery for the troubled industry is still a few quarters away, and that many Wall Street banks will focus on purging their books of risky mortgage securities.

No turn around tuesday

No turn around tuesday here this week. Maybe we get a turn around wednesday. I do expect us to test that 725 on the RUSSELL before we bounce.
Tomorrow watch that 1250 on the S&P if we open lower for a bounce.


MARKETJEDI

Just on FIRE here !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LEH death-
SKF higher and wants more.
TWM come on just give it a few it will soon explode.

Don't forget Citibank, FNM and FRE. Banks are dead. DEAD.

Oil and Market

Has anyone noticed that Oil has been falling but the markets have been falling too?
I think short term Oil could test the $100 level and a matter of fact if it hits $102 it will be sub $100. Oil as many like Cramer has said is holding this market down NOT. the market has serious troubles and it is not Oil !!!!!

We are gapping down this morning on the Home Depot disappointed earnings, let see if we can get a turn around tuesday

I am not the only financial bear

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080819/usa_banks_crisis.html

Thoughts

Well I will go again here and say FNM and FRE going to $2, yep folks aint going to go up AT ALL. Call me the bear man or the doom and gloom but from what I have been hearing it is bad in bank and mortgage land.
I have one for you guys to watch- LEHMAN brothers it is going down folks. I would not be surprised if that one goes to $5 and the mighty GS will go to $135, so mark it down.
Anyways folks TECH is about to fall. I think we will get a sell off in tech before end of September so some of the September puts on the high flyers might be good to dip your feet in.
I personally think you have to be insane to buy any stock in the market right now except the ultrashorts. Yes we will get bounces but they wont last. I still have first open target for the Russell @600 before the year is over and 350 in the next 18 months and I will stick to that call and I always.
I have a trade call tomorrow for you all. It is a SEPT put on a stock I think has much lower prices.

MARKETJEDI

FNM

Wow FNM is now $7 there is no saving that one.

FNM going to $2 for sure.

Rolling Over

We are rolling over early this morning. Tested the overnight lows before 10 am is not good

This week-

This week should be very interesting. I am done with my vacationing and ready to roll here so get ready for alot of TRADE CALLS if they set up. Presently I am unsure where we can go near term but longer term I say prices will be lower. Oil is at support here and who knows what they will do but longer term Oil will be higher that's all I know.
Looking at the daily charts of the DOW, S&P and nasdaq we are forming wedges and that suggest that this uptrend is running on fumes and 'SHOULD' roll over soon, we will see soon enough.
There is no doubt we can go higher here but the wedges put me on pause. I would look for a break down before I go all out on going lower here but lets wait and see what tomorrow will bring.
One idea here I have is BIDU. I think BIDU could be $275 in a jiffy and if that breaks $220 would be my next target.

Get ready because I am back!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

MARKETJEDI.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Oil and GOLD

Two very important commodities to watch. Lets see if Oil hits that $109.80 level but if it fails to hold watch for lower prices possibly $100.
Gold watch $720 as first major support

War to threaten markets?

Seem like the Russian hostility of the georgian state is getting serious opposition in Europe. In my opinion if Russia continues we will see this war escalate into something the market will definitely have as negative.
I dont know what the Global economy would look like if we have a war in europe but it can't be good.

Lets pray for PEACE


PEACE ON EARTH


MARKETJEDI

Pin Action

Remember this friday is options expiration and we have pin action in play here. Don't trade if you dont have to.

TRADE CALL UPDATE: TWM

These are rocking from the monday call. They are up $2 here, if you like you can take off but I am riding this one

NICEEEEEEEEEE!

How about that SKF trade call long on monday????
entry was $110.50 now trading @ $129, almost 20% in two days.


Financials just got downgraded again including Goldman Sachs.

Wednesday

Hey guys and gals I am still taking my holiday but thought I would buzz in and talk about the markets here. Presently we have the most important sector in my opinion the financials in a complete unraveling. Why dont anyone see that everytime they say this sector is bottoming it get smacked down to reality. Look at GS yesterday folks, totally crushed and I think they will have a hard time in the future making the huge profits they have been used to.
I still think FNM and FRE goes to $2, mark it down. The FED CAN'T save that one -THAT'S JUST REALITY-. All those fund managers buying citibank, wachovia etc GOOD LUCK!!!. I mean if they think this is close to the bottom well I guess I will miss it here as I DON'T believe we are at the bottom.
Folks this is my prediction here and now. the S&P WILL SEE 1180 before the elections. If we don't I will eat my dog's poo and broadcast it on YOU TUBE :) NOT. Seriously though you wont see me do it because we going to hit 1180's before the election.


STAY TUNED FOLKS going to have something set up here very soon that everyone can get involved in and make money, just tell your family and friends!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



MARKETJEDI

Pattern

I have noticed a pattern these last week days. Two up days followed by a down day. Let me see how far this pullback comes in as this friday is options expiration not pushing anything here.

Emotions

Some times trading can be very emotional. Last week I spoke to many traders who said last week was their worst week in months. One guy who I know made 40k last month and lost 11k last week trying to figure out this crazy market.
I am glad I went away and cleared my mind because today proved to me that rest, patience and strict discipline is the only way to win in this career. I told myself I wouldn't trade and ended up trading futures today. I was down $2500 on my first 3 trades but ended +$4900 for the day by not panicking and sticking to discipline and observing strict stop discipline.
A $7500 turn around is not something to sneeze at in futures! not like I am trading huge volume. What I am trying to say here is - you will never have 100% winners, some days the market will just kill you to make you quit or make you find a new strategy or stick to your strategy. I hope most of my trading friends did well today and not let last week roller coaster market get them out.
Olympics are on folks and sorry I am a HUGE Olympics and world cup soccer fan so sorry if the entries on the blog are few...

TRADE CALL : SKF long

This is a counter trend move so play at your own peril..


long here $110.50

Resistance here

Resistance is here on the S&P 1310.50.

Powerful move here

this is a very powerful move in the markets. Slow grind up without any extreme readings is very very powerful

S&P

Target reached- 1305 now looking for 1315.

TRADE CALL: TWM Long

Buying TWM here and now

$64.90

S&P target

1304.50 here- lets see if we lift higher.
Oil seeling off giving the market some upward lift here

S&P target

First target 1305 on the S&P, then 1310

TRADE CALL: AAPL 175 PUTS- SEPT

Trying the september puts here

APVUO @10.25

OIL

Looking for this to test its 200 ma @ $109.50.

I will be in and out till wednesday- when I will be ready to go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



MARKETJEDI RULES

Option Expiration

Next week is option expiration. Makes me think they will whiplash all over the place in to that. Dont get scared just play it small.

Tough week for most trades I know and I expect next week might bring the same.

Roller Coaster

Wow up one day 300, down next day 200, then up 300 next day this is one crazy market. Had to do a post on my vacation but we closed at the resistance 1292/6 area I spoke about before. Now what do I think? Think you would be crazy to be trading this market in here under this heavy volatility and secondly I do think we can get a push to that 1320 area. I do expect the talking heads to come out and tram the small players into this rally but it is just a vicious rally in a bear market and nothing more.
I would be setting up shorts here. Some TWM, which I own, some QID, some SKF should be good here but we can get another push higher so make sure you scale into these positions.
I currently have some SKF @$116 average and TWM @$71.
Upside is limited believe it or not so dont get sucked in too deep. Today and wednesday's rallies were in deed awesome but I think they should just be traded.
Russell push to 735 is very impressive and I think 750 should be the cap on that one but we will see.
OIL, OIL, OIL. Think I will be watching that $111 level if it reaches there. I doubt if we crack sub $100 but you never know. Personally I think Oil is a retreat because of China's Olympic move to lessen pollution but after that demand will step up again. Oil long term is definitely cheap here and I am a long term bull on the commodities. This rest is VERY healthy and I will be watching Oil in the coming weeks as the Olympics come to a close.

Have a great weekend. I am still away and will be back maybe Tuesday in full force.

OH NEXT WEEK FRIDAY IS THE NEW STAR WARS. :)

FOMC announcement today

Remember we have the FED meeting and announcement @2:15 today.
Market is up huge here and that's kind of unusual into a FED meeting. I dont know if they sell it off before or after but I have some thoughts.
I want to make one thing clear, Oil is not the make or break for this market as the pundits have been saying on TV. Oil dropping to $100 or $75 a barrel means nothing we will still go down.
I think upside here is limited to around 1350 on the S&P, which is 75 points above and down side is about 350 points so I rather play it as such.

New Week

Folks I will be in and out today once again but as of now the markets last week was forming a wedge which could be interpreted as a bearish formation.
With the FOMC meeting tomorrow we could be in a slow pace today and tomorrow, so dont force anything.

Heavy Wachovia rumor

After their Chief Risk Officer and CFO resigned I started to step up my research on Wachovia. There is a heavy rumor on Wall Street that Jamie Dimon from JP Morgan strongly looking into taking over Wachovia.

Just a heavy rumor now, but the fact that the CFO and CRO resigned let me think it is very possible

Heads up

Wont be here next week after tuesday. Going away for a few days.
I will have my laptop so if I can get broadband and I see anything worth playing I will post some stuff

TRADE CALL UPDATE:GOOG Puts

GOOG puts double here- take 1/2 off


printing $23.50

TRADE CALL UPDATE:GOOG Puts

For those who took the GOOG puts they are doing nicely here- ALMOST a double.

Death to GOOG