Adam Parker

Adam Parker, chief US equities strategist at Morgan Stanley sees the S&P 500 plunging to close the year at 1,214. Weak earnings, multiples contracting, and a downward shift in sentiment will pave the way for a rough fourth-quarter in his view.
Given the poor global macro economic environment the strange thing is that this should be regarded as controversial but then the never ending free flow of money from the QE program has left us in an unreal world that could easily turn into a nightmare…

Although he didn't mention it I am 100% sure he is now convinced Obama will be re elected and that's why he has this stands. I am sure if he thought Romney would win he would have said new highs on the S&P...


Funny how Wall Street acts like they are not political :)

CNBC

I dont watch it anymore but was just flicking through just now and watched like 5 minutes of FAST MONEY, guess what they were harping on ??
1425!!! they must have been reading the blog.

CNBC is always so late to the game it is not funny!

1425

Though today is a non event day because of the holidays the traders must hold the 1425 level to keep the positive bias intact

Dow drops 100 after Fed official's warning

NEW YORK (AP) — A quiet day on Wall Street turned into the worst sell-off in three months after a Federal Reserve official said he doubted the bank's effort to boost economic growth would work.

Charles Plosser, president of the Fed's Philadelphia branch, told an audience Tuesday that the Fed's effort to support the economy would likely fall short of its goals. And if the Fed looks ineffective, it could undermine future Fed action.

The speech probably startled some investors who had faith in the Fed's latest plan, said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer Harris Private Bank. The plan includes buying $40 billion in mortgage bonds each month until the economy improves.

"So many investors have bought into the illusion," he said. "And it was like Plosser pulled up the curtain on the Wizard of Oz."

The Standard & Poor's 500 index lost 15.30 points, its fourth straight decline, to close at 1,441.59. The 1.05 percent drop was the worst for the S&P since June 25.

The Dow Jones industrial average lost 101.37 points to close at 13,457.55. Caterpillar tugged the Dow down, losing 4 percent. The world's largest maker of bulldozers and other heavy equipment said late Monday that slower economic growth around the world dampened its earnings forecast. Its stock sank $3.86 to $87.01.

Stocks enjoyed one of their biggest rallies of the year Sept. 6 after Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, laid out a plan to buy unlimited amounts of government bonds to lower borrowing costs for Europe's debt-burdened countries.

A week later, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke announced the central bank's open-ended mortgage bond-buying program and pledged to hold interest rates at super-low levels into 2015.

The S&P set a four-year closing high of 1,465 the next day, Sept. 14, but has drifted lower since and fallen back almost to where it was before Bernanke's announcement.

On Tuesday, a batch of encouraging economic reports gave the stock market a nudge in morning trading. House prices rose in major cities for a third straight month, and a gauge of consumer confidence came in surprisingly high.

More surprising than those two economic reports was the Richmond Federal Reserve's strong reading on regional manufacturing, a recent trouble spot, said Phil Orlando, chief equity strategist at Federated Investors.

"Look at that. There were three data points on the economy and we crushed them," said Phil Orlando, chief equity strategist at Federated Investors.

But sagging profits could drag on the stock market in the coming weeks, Orlando said. Caterpillar joined a growing collection of companies have lowered their earnings forecasts. FedEx, a bellwether of world trade, said that shipping has sunk to recession-like levels. Railroad giant Norfolk Southern has also warned that falling shipments and sinking coal prices will likely drag down its earnings.

Wall Street analysts now estimate that corporate profits will sink this quarter from a year earlier. That would be the first such drop in three years.
The Nasdaq composite index dropped 43.05 points to 3,117.73. Google's stock touched an all-time high in early trading, clearing $764, but closed the trading day at $749.16.
Apple, the largest public company in the world, lost $17.25, or 2.5 percent, to close at $673.54. It has lost more than $26 in two days. Apple is the biggest component in the S&P but is not included in the Dow, helping explain why the S&P suffered a greater percentage decline than the Dow's 0.8 percent.
The closely watched Standard & Poor's/Case Shiller index of national house prices increased 1.2 percent in July compared with the same month in 2011. Prices rose from the previous month in all 20 major cities tracked by the report for the third month in a row.
The Conference Board said its gauge of consumer confidence shot to a seven-month high in September, trumping forecasts by a large margin. People surveyed said they were more optimistic about the job market.

The Federal Reserve's manufacturing index, which surveys companies in the central Atlantic region, increased after shrinking for three months as businesses turned more optimistic. Companies said they anticipate more orders and shipments even as employment dips. The index turned positive in September after a negative reading in August.

Treasury prices rose as traders shifted money into safe assets. The 10-year Treasury yield, the benchmark for mortgages and other loans, dipped to 1.67 percent, down from 1.71 percent late Monday.

Not expecting much here

With the Jewish holidays tomorrow I am not expecting much today or tomorrow. Not much giving in the market only if you are a market scalper.
It seems like as we head towards the elections we are dwindling down on the market and I expect we will more with meaningful volume after the election is over.

Uber Bear Sees S&P at 800, Just Not Yet

Bob Janjuah, the bearish contributing strategist at Nomura in London, has long predicted the S&P 500 index will head towards 800, a level not seen since the aftermath of the collapse of Lehman Brothers. With the S&P 500 closing on Monday at 1,456, Janjuah has been forced to review his timing.
"My stop loss on my risk-off 'short S&P 500' trade, initiated on 21 August at an S&P 500 level of 1425, has been triggered," said Janjuah in a research note in which he outlined why he is still a long-term bear.
"It was extremely informative to see that post the QE-infinity announcement, which drove the S&P above 1,450 on the day of the Fed action on 13 September, and after an opening high of 1,475 on 14 September, the S&P sold off and got down to a 1,450 low last week! And then - confirming that 1,450 was an important level, and is now a critical pivot point for the S&P - mutedly bullish price action on last Friday activated the stop loss," he wrote.
Given underlying concerns over growth, debt and policymakers' phlegmatic reaction to the debt crisis, Janjuah believes any upside from here will be limited to a 10 percent gain. He stands by his 800 call.
"Until and unless the S&P 500 index (^GSPC) demonstrates a weekly close below 1,450, I believe it is premature to go aggressively short risk - tactically at least - at this precise moment," said Janjuah, who believes that could happen with months, or even weeks.
"The important message now is to accept that, in my view, risk assets are in a bubble, which of course can extend, but which can reverse sharply and suddenly. Up here, 'valuation metrics' are not going to help much." Janjuah believes 10 percent to 15 percent losses for equities could come in a "heartbeat."

U.S. money managers fear fiscal cliff over weak global growth

FROM USA TODAY:  NEW YORK -- Japan's main stock market hit a four-month high Wednesday after the country's central bank eased monetary policy to shore up fragile economic growth, but the positive momentum ground to a halt in Europe.

The Bank of Japan said it was increasing its asset purchasing fund to 55 trillion yen ($700 billion) from 45 trillion yen to counter the strength of the Japanese currency. A strong yen makes it more difficult for Japanese companies to compete in international markets.

The Bank of Japan's move comes just days after the Federal Reserve revealed it will purchase an average of $40 billion a month in mortgage-backed securities until the U.S. economy shows significant improvement. The Fed's goal is to lower long-term interest rates and encourage more borrowing and spending. The Fed also said it plans to keep its benchmark short-term interest rate near zero until mid-2015.

Stock markets, which tend to respond favorably to actions targeting economic growth, rallied sharply last week following the Fed's announcement. However, Wednesday, outside of Asia, where Japan's Nikkei 225 stock index rose 1.2% to 9,232.21, its highest close in more than four months, the response to the BoJ move has been far more modest.

"Perhaps we are seeing investors suffering from a bout of central bank fatigue, or perhaps it is a dawning realization that, even with policymakers dispensing cash left, right and center, there is still a slowing global economy to deal with," said Chris Beauchamp, market analyst at IG Index.

And it's not the biggest worry, according to the September Bank of America Merrill Lynch's Fund Manager Survey. For the first time in 18 months, not even Europe's debt crisis is the No. 1 "tail risk" that worry global money managers. (A tail risk is a rare event that could cause stocks to suffer a disproportionate drop.)

The new megarisk is the looming fiscal cliff in the U.S., according to the survey. The realignment in the pecking order of Wall Street anxieties serves as a warning to Main Street investors wondering what could trip up their investment portfolios at a time when stocks are as high as they've been in almost five years.

The fiscal cliff is a potential growth-crimping one-two punch of rising taxes and government spending cuts set to kick in Jan. 1 unless Congress acts to avoid it. The Congressional Budget Office says the U.S. economy will suffer a recession in 2013 if lawmakers fail to act.

In the September poll, 33% of money managers, who invest $681 billion for clients, said the eurozone's debt crisis is their top fear, down from 48% in August. Eclipsing Europe and ascending to the No. 1 global fear was the fiscal cliff, which got a 35% vote.

Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, says, "The upcoming election is putting these fears into sharper focus."

In the short term, investors likely will focus on government and private data that shows whether the economy is gaining strength. On Wednesday, the main piece of economic data out of the U.S. are reports on new starts for residential housing and existing home sales figures.

Ray Dalio- Cautious words

FED launches QE3!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August suggests that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months. Growth in employment has been slow, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has continued to advance, but growth in business fixed investment appears to have slowed. The housing sector has shown some further signs of improvement, albeit from a depressed level. Inflation has been subdued, although the prices of some key commodities have increased recently. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee is concerned that, without further policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions. Furthermore, strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely would run at or below its 2 percent objective. To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee agreed today to increase policy accommodation by purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month. The Committee also will continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in June, and it is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. These actions, which together will increase the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities by about $85 billion each month through the end of the year, should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases. To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee also decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted at least through mid-2015. Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who opposed additional asset purchases and preferred to omit the description of the time period over which exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted.

FED-

FED looks like they pumping up stuff- QE3!!!! WoW- We are doomed without the FED

ATHN

This looks like it wants to tag $100. With the FED decision @ 12:30 I doubt we move much till then.

IPHONE!!!!!!

Been so busy over the last week I missed the hype on the release announcement of the new Iphone which is happening today. Everyone knows I am a APPLE Guy but that is one device I have never known from them. A matter of fact I am a HUGE android fan and I just got the new Galaxy S3 and think it is way better than my previous HTC Thunderbolt. I am interested to see what the new IPhone has but whatever it has or don't I can predict it will oversell its previous editions just on the basis that it will now be 4G LTE compatible with VERIZON.

1426 in PLAY

Market makers trying to get to that 1426 mentioned here Tuesday- Lets see if they can pin it before tomorrows important numbers-

1426 in Play

Market makers trying to get to that 1426 mentioned here Tuesday- Lets see if they can pin it before tomorrows important numbers-

1426 in Play

Market makers trying to get to that 1426 mentioned here Tuesday- Lets see if they can pin it before tomorrows important numbers-

20 mins to go

20 mins to go and we trading @ 1403.75 - WOW How exciting -

Lunch time!

So it is lunch time and where are we trading? 1404!!! This is just too crazy right now- Market players must be really waiting till both conventions are over-

REALLY!! 1404 Again

Fifteen minutes before open and we trading at where? You guess it 1404. This number is so magical since I mentioned it over a month ago. A battle between the bulls and bears are happening here. I hope REAL volume comes in after all these political conventions are over

1404 AGAIN

Minutes before the open we are still trading at the 1404 area , an area that has been in force for the last 2-3 weeks. Since the holidays have past I am looking for the volume to increase and push us in a solid direction. Support is @ 1361 so the bulls must hold this area or more than likely we will test that number very soon. On the upside we have 1426 that is resistance.