A couple stocks to watch

Ok I dont want to be long a bunch of stuff here as I know many of my readers follow me religiously on the plays. I for one dont want anyone to get crushed here. Next week will be telling. I believe we head down out of the month end run up I explained last weekend.
Some stocks look strong here though Visa is one I think will make new high here soon. MA is on fire and it is only logical for Visa to follow but for me the risk reward is not too great so if you play play with options or light on the size.
Second stock is Google. Yes GOOG, seems like it wants $600 here near term. Now remember GOOG can touch $600 tomorrow or on a good day so I wont be pushing it here, I am just making note of it.
Now for the fun part Oil and Gold. I just finished looking at the charts and yep yep yep folks, Oil can goto 108-110 level and still be in a bullish pattern. I think I would be a buyer of Oil 15-18 points lower. I hope we get a few wash out days so I can jump on board.
Gold also in the same predicament. Gold can lose $60 here and still be in a bullish pattern and if they dollar weakens or the FED signals again that rate cuts are over I would be all over it.
The market seems like it wants to pull in here but I am not 100% sure, but if we do, it would be a catalyst for a healthy move to go higher.

My positions are small here.
MER short
WFMI short
SOV short
C short
FNM short

Bullish mode

Market in a bullish mood dude to the pullback in oil and Gold plus end of month mark up.

Be careful out there because volume is not that heavy

TRADE CALL :TWM

Long TWM 68.87 Here and NOW

Levels I am watching

I am watching the 12450 level on the DOW. A breach below could signal a sell signal in the indices and march us to the April lows then March lows.

Ok

Well after today's action I am convinced we are just being held up by end of month dressing. I am going out on a limb here but I think a few stocks look sweet for short set ups.

Two I am looking at are not for the faint of heart..
These two stock have been strong but are show lower highs in the charts so I think the risk reward are good. I will see how they open tomorrow before I call them.
A gap up tomorrow for me is a easy short!
Look for the brokers and investment banks again for short opportunities. I still think there are more shoes to drop in the financials but which one I dont know. Right now all the banks are trading terrible, look at Citibank, Wachovia, Bank of America all trading at multi year lows.
Citibank looks like it wants $17, Bank of America could see $27 and Wachovia which looks almost as bad as Citibank seem to be looking for $20. We will see soon enough.

Tomorrow is thursday and I might be too early to this trade but I am buying TWM at open if we do gap up. I already bought some QID's today and think we might roll over anytime now and these are good plays. Also look at SDS which is the ultrashort S&P.

I am targeting a short term push on the S&P to the 1330 level after this push up for the week, so we will see how that turns out.

Lehman Brothers

How many times have I said - STAY AWAY from the financials. Rumors are abound of LEH seeking capital infusion.
Oh yes financials are at a bottom, listen to cramer and the fast money idiots please and lose your money..


SHORT FINANCIALS or STAY AWAY.

Wachovia also at multi year lows.

AWESOME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hope someone read the notes this morning and shorted the financials. They gapped up and all of them went red in 30 minutes. Not good at all for them to sell off the opening so fast. I caught C and FNM as usual.

Wednesday

Market futures are up one hour before the open. Oil again is on the retreat but I dont really know how far it pulls in. Also remember that this is end of month and we usually have a bullish bias, saying that after this week I think it is going to be hard to keep this market up. Lets see how today plays out. I am looking at first resistance on S&P around 1391 and we might just open there so wait for the first hour to play out to see where they want to take us.

Watch the financials they were up yesterday but ended poorly. If we start to retrace somewhat watch that sector for some intraday shorts

Market

Not much goign on today. Although a decent morning for me shorting Citibank and the S&P 500, the thing is market has no news to push it higher and the volume is weak.

WFMI short is still workable here

OIL

I hope I am wrong on these fib extension numbers but the new projection is $146.50. At that level though if my fib calculations are correct I would expect a test of the $150 level.

Follow and make money or lose- choice is YOURS

OK folks- Since the inception of the blog I have been on a roll. Some of my readers have been raking up huge profits on guidance given here and that's my aim. This year I am working on starting the first real time fund where those invested can watch the fund performance on a daily basis in no secrecy.
This will be the first and I intend on implementing the fund very soon.
Anyways back to the markets. I have a couple of winners as usual but I must tell you there are going to be alot of fake outs happening in the next few weeks so be prepared and stick the the overhaul plan.
Financials are dead here!!!! Buy only after you have won the lottery and want to lose major funds otherwise stay short. Based on this I am going to TRADE CALL : MER short. I know I already have SOV, FNM and Citibank short and the SKF (long)but I think MER will be a good candidate for a short play here to test the $40 mark and if breached I think $36 is very possible before summer's end.
My other TRADE CALL: WFMI short. Whole food is great but the business model will suffer severely in this economic climate. I am looking for this stock to be in teenage land before Year end.

Worst week for market in three months

This week was the worst week for the markets in three months. OK we got it correct last weekend calling for a move down this week and to be cautious:) After this week some bad charts are coming up and I see more selling in some of the weaker names. Today if you noticed, the financials got killed. Brokers and banks traded horribly and most ended trading at the lows of the day.
Next week should focus us on where they want to push us in the summer. I dont believe the volume will be super low this summer as most money managers and mutual funds are down for the year and will will be looking to at least get even before it is too late in the year.
What I would really love is a bounce next week and a push higher than this last push to get short. Look at GS touch $200 and lost is so fast. MER the same as so the rest of the financials.
Rumors are circulating that Bank of America numbers wont be good this quarter and that has the stock trading almost at its 52 week low. You all already know my stands on the financials: only the strong will survive as I see many of them being sold or going bankrupt. Anyone who believes Bear Sterns will be the only casuality of the mortgage market think again. I am now making my claim that a home builder will go under or be taken over after the terrible housing numbers reported this morning.
For the folks who dont want to buy ultrashort shares or be short, hey good luck but you better sell into the rallies as that's what the big money is doing.
I have got some crazy ideas for the next two weeks which I think will yield huge profits as usual, but we will see soon enough. Tuesday morning I will be posting a play which I think will be a MONSTER play.

Have a great weekend.

GOLD

I understand alot of my readers are interested in the commodity. I am presently doing some reading about Gold and from what I see in my analysis leads me to be bullish on it. I also think the US Dollar will goto .52 against the EURO which should ramp Gold higher.
I am still doing my due diligence and will write more on it .


Have a safe weekend

GS

Not ready to go full short here because I think we will get a bounce soon and I rather take it short there. Just a heads up GS is dead money here. I would not be surprised if Goldman goes to 130.

Next week

Will be very interested what we do next week. Depending on how it goes today and monday in the electronic futures I will have a plan for next week. Stay tuned for a big play I have setting up. I would play it today but the volume is extremely low because of the 3 day weekend.

Citibank going to $17. Mark it down!!


ONLY WINNERS PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!.

BOOYAH

Where is the holiday rally????????????????
What is Goldman doing today?
How about Citibank??
How about JPM??
How about MER??
How about GOOGLE?
You want me to go on. Nah then you will say i am a perma bear. Hmmm I am not just that these stock have no business at these prices and the smart money knows it.
Don't be stupid and invest here you will get slaughtered !!!!!!

Trade Call:TFT

I was doing some reading last night and one of my favorite person out there is Bill Gross. He said the largest bubble out there is Treasury Bonds and he expect interest rates to rise considerably.
On that note I am setting up a play on it TFT.
Call is TFT short @90.65. Only if it trades down to there as that's the trigger for confirmation.

What's happening???

What the heck is happening? ahahahhahaha. I know!!! We have a bunch of idiots in charge. Where is the cinderella ( Goldilocks) economy Larry Kudlow? Where are the bull stocks Cramer?? I dont see them, maybe they are trading on some exchange only they have access to HAHAHHA. What a SCAM.
Can you imagine our legislators are trying to sue the Saudis. That is so unreal, which court are the going to. Look if I am running a business I have no obligation only to sell to one customer and on top of that at a cheaper price. American politicians are a bunch of Morons. Maybe they will read my blog and have the FBI on me but then I will ask them in their faces "Isn't this a DEMOCRACY" I can say and criticize anything or anyone in a DEMOCRACY. Oh no I hear them knocking at my door right now, what a bunch of idiots.
Most of you wont want to hear my true thoughts on where we will be so I wont spill it out and bore or upset you, but will continue to call the market as I see it.
Alittle story of something that happened to me last night. Last night I saw one of my neighbors and he said "hey guy everyday when I see Oil prices I think of you", I said really. He recalled to me that I told him early last year when Oil was @$49 that it would goto $105, I laughed. He then asked me how can he profits now. I said hey I told you twice last year buy some USO because Oil is going to $100 he laughed at me, maybe he thought I was a nut :)). Now he want to open an account and play Oil, good luck to him as I am not a gambler even though I know Oil will go high. He asked me why was oil so high and since I had told him in February last year that Oil would double he wanted to hear what I had to say. Not to break his heart I said I dont know, I just know it wont go back to $50. He then said emphatically! what happened to the Oil we went for in IRAQ. I said not me you went for Oil. I said it is KARMA!, if that's why the US went into IRAQ, this is what should happen. No one gains by doing bad things and bad things only lead to bad things multipled.
What totally cracked me up after I said I dont know why oil is so high. He said we should just attack Canada !!! I said WHAT!!! What has Canada done to America? He said they are selling their Oil to China and not us. I was almost on my floor dying in laughter when I got in my house but then I said to myself, hmmm this is how American politicians think, let us take countries stuff because the earth belongs to America. How stupid are people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Well I hope he doesn't read my blog:::::::))))))).

Oh well.

I am looking for a pullback in Oil here

OK FOLKS! Here is the Deal

Ok folks here is the deal. We are going to have to deal with higher oil prices and there is nothing we can do about it anytime soon. Ethanol is CRAP, solar is CRAP, only true way to get out of this is nuclear, wind and water energy.
The market here is not doomed yet. I dont believe this is the leg down to the March lows. I think there is a good chance we bounce tomorrow into friday. If we do open down and work our way lower tomorrow I would be looking for a reversal in the afternoon. Wall street wont slam us into a holiday that wouldn't be patriotic of Wall Street.
I think June/ July going to be tough. I would not be surprised if we go higher after a bounce here and that would be the last bounce we see in awhile. When we bounce we will get the nice set ups one last time on GS, FNM, C, SKF and the others. Watch for tech to go much lower after this bounce. My money will be on AAPL and RIMM to go much much lower after this bounce. AAPL can see $135/140 over the summer easily. I want to stay light here as I believe there will be a shake out soon that will rock the financial markets and lead us much lower.
I personally dont know of anyone who thinks they are in a better position today than three years ago and that has me nervous about the markets. Yes we have never had a down year in the markets in an election year but this might be the first. Don't worry!!! if we decide not to crash and burn before the election and ramp up higher we can always go that way but right now I would prefer to be light and cautious.

FNM will get to $30 on this next bounce and I will short that down for the ride this time hard. Citibank I dont think it will bounce too hard as it seem to already be dead but we will see
soon enough.

Remember ONLY WINNERS HERE!!!

Hmmm told you my target on Oil was $138 let's see if we get there before FRIDAY!!!!!!!!!!!!

Trade Update: TWM

Taking 1/2 here off +$2.60

Trade Update: TWM

Already up +$2 here .
looking for +$5.

now that was some fast easy money

Trade Update: TWM

Already up +$2 here .
looking for +$5.

now that was some fast easy money

Trade Update: TWM

Already +$2 here .
looking for +$5

FED minutes

Fed minutes signal no more interest rate cuts as inflation is on the rise. I wrote about this last week and it doesn't take a genius to see this in our daily lives.

TWM is sweet here very sweet. Let's see how we do towards the close.

BLOG ON FIRE!!!!!!

TWM nice so far

The last FED meeting minutes will be out at 2pm . should see extreme volatility on news. I would be flat here

Trade Call: TWM

Buying these ultrashort Russell here for a couple of points.

Price $69.85

Oil $132

Oil $132


GEEZ

OIL $130

Well it didn't take long for Oil to hit that $130 number. How important is this???? Well I am sure not driving alot these days.
I expect us to hit that $138 number based on my fibonacci projections I did some weeks ago when we moved over $120. I will do another one later to see how far we can stretch on this projection.

In the meantime Financials looks lower especially GS, MER, FNM and JPM.
The only group I would play higher is the AGROS: POT, MON and AGU.
Also seem like the buying in the homebuilders is finally over and people are giving up that a bottom is in these stocks.

One sector to watch also is the semis: AMAT and BRCM looks weak

HPQ reports above

OK here is a small play.
Hewlett Packard(HPQ) just reported at the close. IF and I say IF, the stock gaps up tomorrow morning more than $1. I wold be buying the $45 calls for a day trade.

Remember only if the stock opens more than +$1 I buy the calls at the 10 am Highs if you want to play it safe

Summer

I dont believe the story about volume is low because we are coming into summer. Listen it is already known that most traders take off summer to send time with family and travel. Last year they said the same thing and pushed the market to new highs and then what happened? we crashed. I expect the same thing to happen here.
If and this is 'IF' m fib numbers are correct we should hit a low off this intermediate high in July. Now I will play the market anyway it goes so I am not going to bet heavily on one side here but it is obvious the markets need a pull back.
I have some ideas on how to play the summer which I will share with you guys in a few weeks.


In the mean time. Stay light and manage risks on trades closely here.

Volume

Volume not that impressive but more than yesterday. Don't be surprised if they flush down the tubes this afternoon

Volume

Volume not that impressive but more than yesterday. Don't be surprised if they flush down the tubes this afternoon

CITIBANK

Stock going to $15 I am sticking to that prediction

Just on Fire!!!!!!!!!!!!

How is Citbank doing???
How is FNM doing?????
How is SKF doing?????


ONLY WINNERS!!!!!!!!!!

OIL $130's before weekend

Predicting $130 Oil before this week friday.

CPI OUT

Two weeks ago I wrote that I truly believe the FED can't lower rates anymore. This might be happening right now with the CPI numbers just out. Numbers showed that pricing are going up faster than expected geeez, we didn't need to wait for these numbers to come out to know that, we the public are been hurting for months with rising fuel and food prices.
The FED is in a hard spot and this is why I believe so strongly the market longer term is in a bear market because the FED has no more ammunition in its arsenal to stop a prolong downturn. We will see soon enough

On Fire!!!!!

BLOG is on FIRE!!!!. CAT and SLB yesterday were monster plays. Also analysis of a pullback was in full force as we ramped up and hit resistance and we totally sold off. This morning we have the futures down and the pullback should continue.
Financials please stay away from them. GS, MER, C , FNM are all looking weak here. I wouldn't buy them even if it was free money. Lets stay light here as I believe they want to shake us either way but I am leaning lower as we are overbought here.

Start of Week

I didn't do any analysis this weekend as I was busy. Just a few things to note.
Oil making new highs again.
Gold broke higher out of the bear flag. Now looks higher.
Volume has been anemic over the past week.

I am very cautious here and I am thinking the most likely situation is for us to pull back this week. Look for the higher flyers like BIDU, AAPL, GS, MER to set the tone in a pullback is we do.

Also SLB and CAT both have nice bullish patterns on the charts

Morning

Goldman Sachs this morning press release on Oil was no surprise. Goldman is calling for average Oil prices to be at $141 a barrel in the second 1/2 of the year. Already Oil is up almost $3 on that news, what else is new. Oil I said before was going to $138 short term but I guess Goldman thinks we got higher than that to go.
What will this do? Well forget about ever paying $2 area for gas at the pump. The new floor will soon be $4, with average prices in the mid 4 to $5 area.

For today I expect us to get alot of movement in the first 90 minutes who knows what we do after. It would be unusual to get two strong back to back days, so I expect us to retreat alittle or be flat today.

Watch for pin action today. DRYS pinning to $110, GS pinning to $185, $190

Market thoughts

Hmmm. looking over some charts and I have come the conclusion that we are definitely in some bubble territory in some sectors. Over the next few days I will be going through some strategies on how to play this.
I think we are close to a top here, the volume has been pathetic since last week monday and I am wondering if this is a effort for the big money to settle the market down before they start dumping stocks.
Russell 2000 looks very very toppy and I am tempted to short it but I will wait for confirmation. One thing keeps me on the defensive is the FED action but in reality the FED can't save us all the time. Earnings have been good but only in areas of agriculture and companies that have huge international exposure. Companies mostly home based are crushed and I think we will trend down as the american household gets a dose of reality that they have less and less equity in their homes.
Oil seem to be getting a rest here but I dont think it will crack. The reality of Oil is that the world can only produce 85 million barrels a day cost effectively and until OPEC can produce an estimate 105 barrels a day we are doomed to higher prices. I hear alot of people saying new technology will save us from oil but it wont, we have waited too long in this country to do anything about oil and now it is the torn in the economy.

I will be poking some shorts here soon but I will surely let my readers know what areas will rack up the most returns..

Bullish action

A said early this week the action is bullish, only problem is the volume. This could be one big bear trap or bull trap. Right now I dont wan to pick which way but bulls are definitely out since we are goign to close above that NASDAQ 2525 number and S&P 1525 number.

Always follow the rules

Today I didn't follow my rules and just for that I had a bad day. I tried to get back even but the volume was been so terrible this week that nothing is moving after the first 90 minutes.
I hope tomorrow with option expiration is better. Yes I know I said I dont like trading options expiration but I hate having a bad day without attack the trading plan the following day.
I already have some ideas for tomorrow and I plan on making it all back and some.

Paul Vocker

Former Chairman of the Federal Reserve and Master of the Financial Universe, Paul Volcker, said this morning:

"We are back in the 70s or worse if confidence in the Federal Reserve is lost."

This means to me that we are back in the 70s.

Watch out far, far below if the CONSEQUENCES of the Fed actions are realized. They will be!

I listen when Paul Volcker speaks, and I suggest you do the same. It was Paul Volcker who motivated traders to leave gold for 15 years.

Trade Update OEX puts

Closed $3. I am holding into tomorrow


Sweet up almost 50% in a day.


ONLY WINNERS HERE!!!!!!!

Market Update

That was the right play to buy those puts into resistance. The tech stock are taking a HUGE hit since this morning.
Nothing like resistance and support!!!

Trade call Update :OEX puts

They are bidding 2.50 into the close I will hold till tomorrow.

Bulls are in charge here

Bulls are in charge here as we are now at that 2524 number on the Nasdaq I have been speaking about for weeks.
S&P number is just 5 points away @ 1425. This would be bullish if we close above these points

Agros

Agros are in play today.
POT, AGU, MOS and MON all up.

Sector I love longer term

OEX Puts

buying OEX 645 puts here @$2.15. market into heavy resistance here

Fed next move

I think there is a good chance the rate cuts are DONE. I think the next move by the FED will be a 1/4 point rise in the interest rates.

Trade Update: X $165 calls

Selling here at $9. Price for me was $5.20.

80% return in one day sweet.


ONLY WINNERS HERE.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ENER $45 CALLS UPDATE

These might open at around $9.50 this morning. I will be selling there on the gap up.

Purchased @ $3.60 yesterday. Only a 165% gain in one day


ONLY WINNERS HERE!!!!!

Potential Plays

I have been talking about X( US Steel) for the past two weeks. I think this stock has more to run. One other in the group I like is JOYG, currently trading at 79.96 I think it is a good 10 am high play, so watch for this one today and tomorrow.
Keep your eyes open on the Agro stocks, POT, AGU, MON, MOS as I think they as ready again to assault their high, lets see.

Have a good trading day

ENER update

I hope some of you were brave to buy those ENER $45 calls I mentioned this morning. I got then @$3.60 and they closed at $7.00, almost a 100% winner in a day. Lets see what tomorrow brings but if you in the trade you got to manage it yourself. I might be out $7.50-$8 level tomorrow morning if it gaps up.

ENER $45 calls-

Traded as low as $3 at open. I got in at $3.60, now trading at $6.10

New Week

Firstly remember that this week is options expiration, which as you all know I love just love.
Talk over the weekend was of the Euro Dollar getting some selling as investors weren't as confident in the EB decision making policies to interest rates.
I personally dont know how this will impact the markets as I really don't see people rallying into the US Dollar under current climate. Maybe they switch over to the Pound or some other european currency.

My two plays for this week are X and ENER.
Good chance I take there long at the open with options. The %170 X call options @ $5 looks decent enough and ENER $45 call options @$3.50 have little premium in them.

Will update after market opens..

Weekend

I think next week we will have a bullish week. I know today is friday night but I think we can push up into that 200 ma on the indexes here.
One stock I am goign to gun for next week is X (United Steel). This one looks like it want $200. Google also looks like they might want to pin this one to $600 area next week.
I will say it here, the next push up will be the last time to sell your longs. The next push up will bring all the bulls out and then we will burn hard, very hard.

Have a great weekend

Pre Market

Oil is ticking above $125.50 as I write and world markets are getting a cold slap in the face this morning. AIG should set the stage for a pullback in the financials. Citibank may shed $400 billion in assets.They have a $2 trillion balance sheet. What a monster company. I think they will let some air out today as there isn't a positive catalyst in site, and oil prices are really starting to piss the market off. With most earnings out of the way and commodities soaring it may be a good time to step aside or increase short exposure. Keep an eye on yesterdays lows to see if they are violated. I think they will crack. Critical juncture in the market as the rebound could be seriously tested here.

Is it wrong to be betting on the US Dollar now.

I just got through read an article relating to the US dollar, Euro interest rates and Gold. It was a very interesting read but I can't copy and paste it here as it is a copy right article. The basis of it was explaining the ECB decision not to lower interest rates as they see significant inflation since last autumn. The writer proclaims that the ECB is reluctant to follow the U.S. Federal Reserve in cutting borrowing costs as soaring food and energy prices drive inflation above 3 percent in the 15-nation euro region. The International Monetary Fund estimates economic expansion will weaken to 1.4 percent this year from 2.6 percent in 2007 after the U.S. housing slump pushed up the cost of credit worldwide.
Why is this important? Well the writer of the article is stating his claim that the Euro will go as high as $2 against the US dollar and this will consequently lead gold prices to $1650, if that happens. I am keeping a close eye on this as this I believe will have drastic consequences to the US economy.

Market lifeless

Market is so dead today I wouldn't be surprised if we match monday's volume as the lowest volume day of the year.

TRADE CALL: SKF OUT

Out SKF +$5.60

TRADES

How is IPI doing?
How is SKF doing?
How is FNM doing?
How is C doing?
Slam dunk here!!! we take no loser only winners. Been singing the same tune forever any time FNM trade above $30 it is an automatic short. Yesterday run to almost $31, you should have shut your eyes and short , period.

Oh we have so little faith when we see SKF down. New highs on the year that's what I have been saying and I will stick to it. +$6 today. I am up almost $4 on my average down on that stock.

IPI I am watching closely down a buck but I believe it will go to it highs closer to its 30th day of trading since it is a new stock.

Citibank, oh poor citibank. Constantly hearing the talking head saying buy buy buy . I say short short short anytime this thin reaches anywhere near $26. I still calling this stock to new lows sometime this year.

Stay Tuned.

IPI

IPI is finally looking good. Lets see what it does in the next few day. Still think it has higher to go, just had a bad entry on it

S&P

Well folks the market is just shrugging off the bad news in the economy. Yesterday news that last month was the highest month ever for bankruptcy filings did not impact the market. Folks we are once again in irrational exuberance. Goldman Sachs said yesterday oil should reach 150-200 in the next 16 months, does anyone know what that would do to the economy. I can tell you! It would slow it down to negative growth for sure.
I think we are almost close to the top here in the markets. I am looking at that S&P 1455 number, which is 35 points away as very strong resistance and will set up shorts from there. FNM had terrible numbers and after the stock opened down $2+ point it rallied. Ok lose $2 billion in 3 months and the stock rallies, this is so funny. FNM is nothing more than a $15 stock and I will short it again up here.
Stay cash heavy here folks because we wont stay irrational for long. If you are heavy on the long side except for the commodity stocks I would be scaling back here.

OIL

Today Oil made all time high. I just did some projection and Oil has the potential to goto $138. I hope my readers are buying smaller and more fuel efficient cars because it will only get worse at the pumps

SKF

SKF up nice before the open. Glad I added to my shares. SKF is up $8 from last friday's open

FNM

FNM down premarket on loss of over $2 Billion for the quarter.

FNM

Do we get a blood bath on FNM tomorrow if earnings are terrible in the morning before the close! Who knows! all I know this stock isn't worth $15 and I will ride it down to that level.
We will see soon enough. I purchased some AAPL puts here again as this level is heavy resistance but this trade is not for the faint of heart.

OIL

Oil looks like it want new highs and towards that $125-$130 level.


Time to buy that bicycle :)

Stick to the trend trades.

Stick with trend trades till they stop working. Look at citibank today down, FNM down, SKF up. You have to stick will the trend till it doesn't work anymore.

Seem like some funds moving back into the commodities space. Oil is up huge and the agro stocks aren't doing bad.

Start of week

The market seem to be upset about the Microsoft Yahoo deal not going through. Currently the futures are down but I am goign to be aggressive and buy some strong stocks at the open for intra day play.
Keep an idea on GOOG which should benefit from the Microsoft, yahoo fall out and also look for a pull back in the financials.
I will be back after market opens

Microsoft stop takeover talks with Yahoo

Well I guess it wont be a 300% winner on those calls tomorrow. Whatever it is the play is over and I will sell my calls tomorrow. It shouldn't be a loser anyways as my entry was $2 and friday's closing price was $2.51.

I might take MELI short on this news depending on where YHOO opens. Should it open much lower I will be inclined to short MELI as a sympathy play.

Also saturday afternoon JP Morgan came out saying the financial mess is far from over, I concur with this but market pricing of stock is much different from this consensus so we will see. As usual I love Citibank short on this news and the SKF long. SKF had a great day on friday as it went $5 higher than it opening price after gapping down.

Also if the US dollar continues to rise I expect GOLD to slide further. I will be watching the agro trades this week specifically POT and AGU.

Market Thoughts

Ok another week of earnings catapult us to that magic 13000 number on the DOW. The DOW number means nothing to us traders as the more widely held indices of the S&P is more effective.
1400 is the key number here and closing above it for 3 days in a row without a retracement below it is very strong signal that this might be the new short term support. Next week should be interested with earnings season at its end and a strong up week this week, I am expecting an orderly pullback.
The trick here is how orderly of a pullback we have. I think the bulls will not give up easily and will more than likely use the stimulus package and theory of all is well in the financials market to push us higher. 1455 is the number to watch on the S&P ultimately on the upside. On the downside we have that 1396 number again.


Have a great weekend.

ONLY WINNERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I hope you followed and rolled those April $27.50 YAHOO calls into the MAY $27.50 CALLS. Called it here on the blog @$2.00.
Tonight after the close official new that Microsoft going to pay $35 a share for Yahoo.

These calls are going to be worth about 300% more but we will see on monday how they open them..
Not bad for 3 week hold!!

ONLY WINNERS HERE. PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

SKF green baby green

SKF was down huge this morning now it is up $4. That's why you enter trades with a plan.

resistance hit

Well after rejoicing about the US losing 20k jobs the market hit resistance early. I was in lala land as my SKF sold off but are not almost back to even on the rejection of the highs this morning. Honestly I would prefer a positive market today and close near the resistance as that would set up a early week short op next week.
Some of the recent high flyers are giving it back today and I told you about commodities that they will bounce in here. Potash, mon, mos, all up although not by much and OIL is up $3.
Best trading day for the week was today, even with the big downdraft I suffered at the start of day. Trading is definitely about staying patient at time.

Have a great weekend

FED injection again

FED just increase money available to banks in Europe in Swaps. I thought everything was a OK!!!
Ha ha I am being funny

Job Numbers

Job numbers will be out @8:30

Warning: C

The last time I posted that I had a bad feeling about Citibank the stock got hurt the following day. I am not as sure this time but I am very wary of Citibank here. Citibank has gotten over $40 Billion of cash since December 2007 and I think they are in serious trouble.
MER is also one to watch here too. Alot of people like Cramer is talking about financial have bottom but funny enough two weeks ago when these stocks were lower he was saying he would not touch any financials. OK which one is it Cramer???????????? Just like when he said gold going to $1250 and I said gold will goto $850 before that happens, oh well Cramer you lost again.

DOW 13000

DOW 13000. Yes we finished above it. Well took us awhile to get there but I think we are almost at a top here and ready for a dip down again. I am looking for that 13000-13200 area for the past weeks as upside resistance and expecially that 1425 on the S&P.
We are one good day away from these resistance numbers and more than likely the next sell off will lead to a rotation back into the agros, oil and commodities stocks. I am now averaged about $96 on my SKF holdings here. I am also long IPI and will be looking to get into AGU and MON on the bounce. Been saying it since the middle of March that we should bounce during earnings seasons and that's one of the most powerful trends in trading. Now that earnings season is close to its end, it will be hard to find a catalyst to push up higher. This is a nice run up and definitely those who were short heavily have taken profits and ready to reset. Make no doubt about it we are in a bear market and this is just a bear market rally and nothing else.
Next week we should reverse the uptrend and I will be looking for more shorts. Look at the moves in AAPL, GOOG etc they can go higher but not much before the selling begins.
Lets see how it plays out tomorrow especially since we have the all important job numbers on tap..

DOW 13000

DOW 13000 here. Lets see if it hit the target set out last week 13200.

GOLD

looking for some support at the 200 day moving average @ $842 for a bounce. Below that target will be $815

S&P

Resistance is 1424 if you guys remember from a few week ago.

SKF explanation

Why am I sticking my head out here with the ultrashort SKF ? Because I think it will work. Many times you have to be patient and I am willing to be patient here the financial trackers seem to be breaking out but my caution sign is that the stocks are moving up on very little volume. Movement in price must be backed up with volume and to that extent I see no volume.
So that explained I might be alittle early on the trade but it is ok. SKF to new highs this year is my call.

SKF

I will add another set of SKF @$92 if it goes there.

adding to SKF

Market in a definite bullish tone here but I do feel the financials are close to a top here I might be wrong but I will put my money on the line. I am adding to my SKF and I my average cost is now $97.40.
We will see soon enough.

Oil, Gold and Euro all down

The bullishness of the US dollars is still fueling the selling in the commodities. Oil is currently @$110 but I think $105 is the number to watch if we get there.
Gold also now $850 should watch this level to see if it bounces.