917

917 level to watch tomorrow on the S&P- if we can mount above that we are short term in bullish mode.

Financials

IF and I say IF, the scenario of higher price comes to reality as I think it might, watch the financials for some upside. YES they are dead but they WILL bounce if the market bounces. The great thing is that SKF will be cheaper to jump on. I hope they squeeze it down to 100 level as this would be another gift from the trading Gods.


Good luck this week

MARKETJEDI

Just a thought on this week

Futures just opened overnight and we look lower. A far cry from tomorrow morning but I would love to see us gap down for like the first part of the day then move higher. Watch 905 on the S&P, which is my first upside target tomorrow if we have an upside day, followed by 945. So a gap down would lead into a green day followed by a push into tuesday and possible wednesday which would be the peak for this cycle.
Who knows what will play out but that's what I would love to see. I definitely think with the black friday sales being better than expected the bulls will try to push us higher with some volume.


MARKETJEDI

Next week

Next week we should get some positive spin from the black friday retail sale. I have been reading and it seem that sales where up from last year which is very impressive because personally I thought sales would have been horrible. Monday most traders should be back by mid day and the true direction should show up by mid tuesday.
I am in the neutral camp here short term because most money managers will be rushing in desperately to make up for a horrible year.
I am 100% that 2009 will be a shocking year especially in the first two months which I firmly believe we will test new lows and test my 4000 area on the DOW later down but i digress. Next two weeks if we go higher I am looking for ultimate resistance at 1045 on the S&P and around 10300 on the DOW. I think it will take a miracle to pass those levels in the near future and will give traders an excellent spot to short the market. Early next week I am making a firm trade call before Tuesday which should be a winner, so stay tuned.

Also I am going to give you all a KILLER PLAY for your 401k. I understand many are down and out but tell your family and friends to play this one!!!!!!


MARKETJEDI

TECH Plays

With christmas around the corner, there is no doubt some tech stocks should be in play. Since I can't get a good handle on which one to play I rather play some shorts into resistance. My favorite one would be AAPL. A trade close to or above $115 I would buy the $100 puts on the following month.
I am just putting out some plays so many of you can watch, they are not in play till I give it as a trade call.


MARKETJEDI

TRADE CALL SET UP: SKF

Please note this is a set up and you must follow the play. Most of you know this is one of my favorite ultrashort to play. The troubling news out of the financials have abated for the time being but their will be more. I am going to play this again long if it breaks $110 and as usual I think $90 will be a shut your eye and buy.
I am expecting the DOW to at least test the 9000 level in the next 3 trading days and possibly get a blow off top soon, which should set us up nicely for the cycle lows I am calculating around January. Lets hope I am right because I would love nothing more than to start 09 with a bang.

Watch the US Dollar too as I believe it should also get a blow of top very very soon.

Upside Continues

The upside continues pre thanksgiving attributed to the light volume is my thesis.
I am here to affirm my all for DOW 4500 and even think 3000 is very very possible.
Here is the main problem:The Fed continues printing money wantonly, thus rendering the value of the dollar 50 to 80% less than where it currently is. Bernanke is on record as saying that if he was faced with Deflation, which is where we currently are, he would start printing money. The theory being that printing money would basically "level" the deflation by doing something inflationary (printing money is most certainly inflationary). Germany, and others, have tried this in the past (does anyone remember one definate reason why Nazi Germany was born?) and it's never succeeded. Frankly, I don't think it can succeed, BUT what it can do is give the illusion of wealth. Unfortunately this is why I rage against the machine, because its pretty safe to say that while prices of homes, and even the stock market could "stabilize" its illusionary and in fact the opposite.

Yesterday the FED PRINTED ANOTHER $800 Billion to help the consumer credit market. Where will it end the FED is basically printing money 36 hours a day :). I really think we will get over $20 Trillion when this is all over. Also I think their is a realistic possibility that the US Debt rating get downgraded in the next 3 months which would set up the treasury notes rising in yield thus starting the inflation cycle of the global slowdown.

I have one more thing to say about the appointment of the new treasury secretary by Obama. It is my feeling that because he is already a FED governor(New York branch), he will prove to be just as ineffective as Paulson. Listen up here folks the DOW ended @ 8700 today I think the most they can get out of this market is 10250, so we have 1700 point to go on the upside. Watch next week for 910 area with the possible cycle high coming in around 1023 area. That's it folks so if you long you better take profits if they big guys come in next week and think we should go higher.


Have a Great Thanksgiving

Up Up Up

Seem like we MIGHT just get some relief from the selling. I think they cycle should end in January for a low so it would make a great play if we go up into the end of year.
I am goign to run some numbers later and post-

GAP up Play

For you futures guys- I will be shorting 882.50 on this gap up if we hit that in the first 20 minutes. Make that 882.50/ 884 area to give it some room. 878 might provide some initial resistance too

Tuesday

S&P resistance is 871 but we looking like we will open right there. Next significant resistance is 905/906. So that's at least 30 points higher. Seem like they want us higher into the holidays. If they close us green today this will be the first 3 day rally in awhile. I think we were oversold and this is just a ABC corrective more.
Watch 905 as next significant line

This week-

This week I think we try to test 837 on the S&P early. There should be alot of talk about Obama's finance team and this might settle the market into the Thanksgiving holidays. 837 is very important to watch as a close above this would mean we have more upside in the cards. You never know with this crazy market but I am totally neutral as I said last week and I rather just play the futures intraday till be have some trend in either direction.
Saturday I was on the road and I saw gas selling for $1.84 a gallon, seem too good to be true but it was, it has me thinking that this might be some bottom here for Oil. I would be very surprised if we see gas prices lower but who knows. Just saying dont be surprised if this is close to the bottom in Oil.


Enjoy the rest of the weekend.


MARKETJEDI

This market is on life support. The lies being thrown at the American public are unfolding and the more they are, the lower this market has to go. Thursday after the close Citibank (C) said that they are looking to sell themselves, or break themselves up and sell pieces. Do you know the last few companies that said the same thing before they went to ZERO (or close to it)? WB, WM, BSC, LEH, AIG. C sees under $1, I've said it for a very long time. Unfortunately I'm right. Right before C are, I believe, BAC, MER, MS, and my favorite GS, which is still absurdly overvalued. When GS is under $10, which I believe it will be, you can thank me. Those are a few, there are a TON more. Pundits continue to send their clients to market HELL with reckless abandon. The denial is thick, and it's only unfortunately going to get worse. Nothing goes in a straight line, but I am now officially moving my DOW target to a MINIMUM of 3500. I am quite sure we see my initial 4800 target, but I think we see a lot lower. We are in very serious trouble, folks and the more denial that runs rampant, the worse it'll be in the end. We will bounce shortly, but its unlikely to last very long. This market is in a hospice, it'll pop up and look like its doing better once in a while, only to then fall even lower. I'm sorry, I really am, but anyone who owns a SINGLE SHARE of stock is a SUCKER in my opinion. I think there's a good chance that we start to see some states go bankrupt, and for the US to be downgraded ratings wise. If China decides they need to stop buying our paper it's going to get a lot uglier. If they decide to call the debt, forget it, its over, the fat lady has sung and stick a fork in the US stock market for good. People ask, "but aren't the companies worth something?" The simple answer is - YES, and many are worth a LOT, there may even start to be some "values" simply because they are trading below their cash levels and making money (at least for now). BUT, there are so many companies that are debt laden and that is the biggest issue. For example, many of the energy names have huge debt obligations. When they can't meet them they have to try to borrow more money at a higher rate. If no one will lend them at a higher rate even they have to go bankrupt. Look at stocks like CHK, they carry huge debt loads in a declining market, the stock will probably go under or sink below $10 more than likely. Just because its "cheap" doesn't mean it's buyable.
Let me explain why what is happening wont work and the reason Paulson is clueless. We the tax payers loaned Citibank $25 Billion and we were told the tax payers would make money in the end on these deals. Well as of yesterday's close Citibank has market cap of $20 Billion, so how in hell are we goign to get back our $25 Billion when the company is not even worth that. Come on here folks we are being manipulated again and again by Washington and the elites but I am not falling for it.
Some of you owe me some christmas presents. You know who you are writing me and saying some of the plays are up 400% in a couple of days, well that what we should be doing and not listening to the talking heads.

Option plays this month on the blog have been on fire. Goldman puts were up over 200%, GOOGLE puts over 150%, SKF geez what can I say (recommended @$60 now $300)and next month we will rack them up even more. Ask the talking head how much they are making for their clients. ZERO they are losing because they dont have a clue.

MARKETJEDI

MORE NEW LOWS

Tired of the same old story but market is doing exactly what I said, NEW LOWS. We just cracked the 2002 lows like it was nothing. Good chance my projections for those lower numbers are accurate so stay tuned.
Oil went below my $52 like a champ and looks weak. No saving the markets here folks I hope you all playing the options and ultrashort shares. GS Options was taken off this morning +150% profit.

ONLY WINNERS HERE.

MARKETJEDI

TRADE CALL UPDATE: GS PUTS (GS XN)

Out here $22.00. purchased @8.50

ONLY UP 160% SWEET

ONLY WINNERS HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!


Will update later

TRADE CALL UPDATE: GS PUTS (GS XN)

These are trading at a double here but I am riding them. You can take the 100% on them here but I am riding them personally.


ONLY WINNERS HERE !!

CITIBANK

CITIBANK DIE- below my $7.50 target. PLEASE GOTO $5 citibank and let me looks like a genius.



MARKETJEDI.


$50 NEXT STOP for GS

SKF, C, GS

Anyone see how these are performing- EXACTLY to the target I said months ago. SKF was called here on the blog to $200 when it was $90, now it is $200 BINGO. Citibank called to $7.50, we are just there and GS called to $75 when it was $200, now it is $60

Wednesday morning

Just getting back here folks- We are currently gapping down but it doesn't look too bad. Let's see if the bulls can rack up another up day.

BACK!

I am back and ready to rumble. It is so great to get away some times and just enjoy nature. The carolina mountain are beauty and I hope to have many more visits.
Anyways, I think we will get one more push down and have a bounce, maybe a holiday rally. I think today they had a chance to break them and they didn't so I am shifting my stance here from bearish to neutral just to see what shakes out.
I will update tomorrow but if we gap up watch for 873 resistance and 854 as some support. If we do sell off I will be looking at 813 area to BUY

Weak bulls

Still on a mini vacation but just thought I would write a few lines. They tried to rally us today and no dice, the sold us hard again in the last hour and we more and more looking like we will crack those lows everyone talks about being a bottom.
GS puts are printing money here. All the financials are DEAD. Citibank is about $1.40 away from my ultimate target of $7.50. YES I had citibank on my death list before anyone else :) and yes it is dead bank sorry but same as I said about Fannie Mae just DEAD. Now lets see if we can get a turn around tuesday or wedneday although I dont think it will be anything to talk about.



MARKETJEDI

$700 Billion = 2 Trillion

The bailout will cost tax payers about $2 Trillion when it is all over. I believe people are not analyzing the real problem at hand and most importantly we have two morons over Treasury who flat out are saying they have no idea what to do. I have a great idea and I have been saying it for the longest while, you have to force the banks to lend money period.
You can't give them access to the funds and EXPECT them to do what you want! you have to make them. Now how can they do that? I think we should just really NATIONALIZE the whole financial system, YES I said it, and those who dont believe that's what is happening, what the heck do you believe is the need for our tax money to help the private sector. THAT NATIONALIZATION!!!. People are just afraid to use the word because they have been so programmed to think it mean socialism which is crap. IF they dont want to hear that give us back our $700 Billion BACK NOW!, At least in socialism we would all supposedly benefit than just the rich executives who are taking our money and giving us the bill for their mismanagement. I mean we are seeing CAPITALISM die here in front of our eyes and it is a disgrace TOTAL disgrace. President Bush, Thursday in front of the G20 leaders practically said sorry to the rest of the World for the short fall of Capitalism. That's just crazy, Capitalism is not about everyone being prosperous, it is about the strongest surviving, so if your firm is a dud (GM, Ford, Banks), then you SHOULD go belly up. THAT'S CAPITALISM!, fair rules and competition with NO GOVERNMENT intervention BUT oversight. What went wrong is that there was no oversight and we often confuse the two. Oversight is NOT intervention, having rules doesn't mean socialism, what the heck is really going on here?? People are so frigging stupid it is unbelievable!!!
So now we the tax payers are owners of banks and automakers and we can't get a loan from the banks we own to buy the cars from the companies we own, does anyone see the real picture or are they looking at a polaroid which has faded.
DO you know the FED funds rate is now 1% and mortgage rates are still in the 6-8% range. So for those who don't know, the banks are getting the money for 1% and lending it to you to buy a house for 8%, that's unreal. So they are making 7% from you the tax payer and they can't run a business model to be profitable but we should pay for their losses. Hmmm drop my mortgage to 2.5% and maybe I will consider it but no way when you are raping me 7% on my mortgage spread and 20% on my credit cards and then you want to take home millions in bonus for ZERO profits. These guys should be LOCKED UP end of story but i digress again.
I got two emails from readers thanking me for the blog readings: one I know personally and the other is just a reader in this wonderful cyberspace. They both surprisingly said the same thing, their portfolios were up huge on my trade calls while the market was in the worst bear market for this generation. THAT'S what I am trying to do , help people see the LIGHT. Now if I am lighting the way and you want to go into the darkness that's OK, everyone has a choice, but I would surely like to walk in light than a dark road any given day.
I think we get a next new level low sometime after the new year, I strongly believe this and it will be a painful one. Citibank announced another 10000 job lost this week, QVC, Kraft foods and other also added to the layoff list this week. Very good chance when these job woes get worst and we dont have a great holiday retail season the DOW will start trading in that 6500-7200 range. My ultimate target for the DOW is 4800 and I stick by it. I hope we get a santa claus rally to short the heck out of it again but we will see.

I will be out till wednesday but will try to still update.


MARKETJEDI

Friday pre market

We are gapping down right before the open BUT I do expect at least a test of yesterday highs @913.

Friday 14

Levels to watch on the S&P
UPSIDE -911, 924.5 then 935
Downside -881,866,852 then 836.50

Monster RALLY

Monster rally off the retest of the lows. Program trading kicked in after lunch and BOOM.
Technically this is a reversal and we could see this reversal hold up a few days and possibly week. Nice taking profit on GOOG we will hold the DEC $70 puts on GS.

Tomorrow I dont expect much after an 800+ point swing

TRADE CALL UPDATE:

Out all GOOG PUTS + $17. Over 90%



ONLY WINNERS

NEW LOWS

BINGO we at new lows for the S&P. Sorry to say I told you so

TRADE CALL UPDATE: GS $80 PUTS (GS WP)

Selling here @$17, more than a double.


NICE - ONLY WINNERS HERE

TRADE CALL: GOOG DEC PUTS

Take 1/2 off here @$31.00, purchase was $19.50 for me

We are TOAST!

Ok folks some of you have been reading my blog and can vouch it is 100% predictable than the idiots who come on TV. I am tired of beating the dead house telling people the market is broken but hey I can't force the horse to drink the water. I really truly am predicting the DOW to see 5000 in the near future so don't listen to the idiots who tell you we going to new highs.

Here is the inherent problem with the notion that this is the same as other bear markets. Bear markets are usually based on a few factors, one of which is valuation. That, in my opinion, is the least of the issues. Others include valuation based things like "bubbles". More importantly, though, is the economy, which includes unemployment, manufacturing, sales, etc. Even more importantly is consumer confidence and investor confidence. ALL these factors point to MUCH lower prices. BUT, none of them is the most important in this instance. In this instance you have what happened in 1929, a confluence of events and factors that has created what I've dubbed the PERFECT STORM of investor disaster, or the real Y2K, but of the stock market. Today we heard from Hank Paulson who I have no respect for, said what I have been saying for the longest while that $700 Billion is not enough to fix this problem because they dont know how to fix it PERIOD. They force fed everyone, including congress and the senate and investors and "main street" the notion that the government was going to buy all these toxic assets, create a market for them and the government would then be able to make money on these "assets". This NONSENSE has been repeated AGAIN AND AGAIN AND AGAIN all over the financial media, as though it was true. Fund manager after fund manager has trekked onto CNBC and other places and told YOU that this is a good time to buy. This market will NOT be higher in 10 years, you can all write it down and call me in 10 years. I remember when I called NASDAQ @4800 the top people called me a FOOL, now it is 1499 and heading to 800.
Back to the rational of this bailout, how can you guarantee profits? The same dumb thing that caused people to buy houses to invest because everyone in the real estate business said buy real estate you can't lose! REALLY? Listen up folks their is a major conflict of interest and it doesn't work out for the people at the bottom of the ladder. The notion that you should buy now and hold for 10 years and that historically that has paid off is another LIE that is perpetrated by the media, and by fund managers alike.

Paulson's speech today is so bad that anyone buying bank stocks now is crazy. I believe the following banks will be in deep trouble soon Citibank (which I called to single digits, when it was $35, now @ $9), Wachovia, looks like it will be @$1 ultimately, Bank of America will be single digits soon and the credit card banks as Capital One and American Express are going to see much lower prices. The GS puts you should all be in from monday are up 90% just amazing and I think Goldman goes much much lower ($30 area). Folks I was listening to Rush Limbaugh today and what an idiot he is! talking about the market is down on Obama. Obama is not in power, maybe he didn't read that 1.25 millions jobs have been lost since January, Best Buy this morning said this is the worst retail environment they have ever seen, Intel after the close said things are horrible and Goldman is saying 10% unemployment is very likely. I mean don't listen to these morons, they will make you lose it all PERIOD.
Do you realize how many of these guys called the bottom of the financials in July, saying to buy Citibank, wachovia etc. I said buy SKF and we all know how that is doing! SKF will go over my $200 in the long run for sure and those who listen when I said buy on any dip below $90 were handsomely rewarded.


$700 Billion wont save us because Citibank has $300 Billion in toxic assets, MER has $260 Billion and the many others, so do the MATH. There should be an immediate investigation into our money folks. The bill of goods the American people were sold is shameful. Do Paulson and Bernanke claim they didn't know these assets were worthless when they said that taxpayers should be on the hook for $700 BIL that I said from day 1 was throwing our money away?
Someone else needs to be in charge here, Paulson and Bernanke are clueless. Its going to get worse. The GM bailout again will be sold as an INVESTMENT, and sold that GM is too big to fail. This is another TOTAL LIE! GM has to be allowed to go into bankruptcy and to reorganize, otherwise its a 100% guarantee that they will keep coming back for more and more money. It's theft, folks, plain and simple. $700 BIL that WE will be on the hook for, just like AIG who has now borrowed $150 Billion up from the original $85 Billion.

Listen, I am just a person who cares about people who work hard to put their money in the market. I am tired to see people pay others to lose their money based on lies. It takes alot of my time to put plays on the Blog and trade but I think all of us need to help each other in the World. The path these financial institutions are putting us on is the mark of a deep depression. I hope I am wrong but I have been right 99% of the time. Notice the magic number 1000 on the S&P I spoke about last week, we hit is one time and that was it, the beauty of technical analysis.


TRADE CALLS up huge here GS puts +90% in 2 days and GOOGLE puts up over 50%, I think GOOG puts will be a double.


MARKETJEDI

Rocking here

Blog is rocking here. Citibank is going to open at new lows this morning and GS is opening at multi year lows too. Those GS puts are going to rack up huge if they play out as I expect ( ALREADY +50% IN A DAY). Market is just broken especially the banking sector, also news this morning of Toll Brothers saying no estimates of 2009 revenues or profits as it is so uncertain.
Got to ride the path of least resistance and it is down.



See you lower market.


MARKETJEDI

TRADE CALL: GS

Hope you guys got those puts- they are ROCKING here - unbelievable!!!


Ride them here we going to rock up on those

Hoping for rally? I dont think so

Certainly a herculean challenge for our new administration. Frankly I don't think a quick fix exists just as there is no quick fix for certain diseases. You incubate and wait, as only time itself will heal the wound or illness.

On Friday, Goldman called for the biggest rise in joblessness since WW ll. Here is a blip from their piece:

The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 8.5% by the end of next year and inch even higher in early 2010, economists for Goldman Sachs wrote Friday. The cumulative trough-to-peak increase of more than 4 percentage points in the jobless rate would be the most since World War II, they said. Goldman analysts lowered growth forecasts for the next three quarters, and said they now expect the Federal Reserve to cut its interest rate target to 0.50% by December. "The main reason for these changes is the accumulation of evidence that U.S. domestic demand and production are dropping sharply," they wrote. "We do not see a resumption of anything close to trend growth before 2010."

And retail should see more pressure. Analysts are looking for a fourth consecutive monthly drop. The last time that happened was 1974. Here is what CIBC is saying:

"October will prove to be a disaster for retail sales, with only the discounters having anything to cheer about," wrote Avery Shenfeld, an economist for CIBC World Markets. "Note that the ex-autos number will partly reflect the drop in nominal gas-station sales on falling pump prices, and will therefore exaggerate the decline in real terms."

Credit Suisse is saying this:

"The forces of tighter credit, a slackening labor market, falling household wealth and the deluge of negative news headlines are intersecting to create one of the worst backdrops for consumer demand," according to a Credit Suisse note. "As a consequence, vehicle sales collapsed in October and chain-store reports were softer than already scaled-back expectations."

I THINK ALL RALLIES SHOULD BE SHORTED HERE. I posted a new trade call on the blog so take a look. Also as of yesterday 19 banks have failed since the start of the year.

For all those people who are listening to their advisers (people who take a self test exams in 4 weeks and want to advise people on their hard work monies) be my guest. These are the same people will told people to stay with GM when it was $100, same that said stay with microsost@ $60 or stay with Enron. Time to wise up and take your finances in your own hands.
While doing my PHD one of my professors told me that the financial markets is a big scam for the smart people to take from the less knowledgeable among us, I wonder if we should call the markets some redistribution of wealth :) I think so! Just dont be on the wrong side.

MARKETJEDI

TRADE CALL: GS

YES - A trade call on SUNDAY!! How crazy am I. This is not for the weak or inexperienced traders but experience traders among us.
I am going to play this one very very unusual but here it the play.

BUY $80 Puts for NOV. (GS WP) at open $8.30 area
BUY $70 Puts for DEC (GS XN) at open $9.00 area


Yep I have a gut felling about this one like I had about Fannie Mae and Wachovia. Let's see how this one turns out.



MARKETJEDI

NEXT WEEK

Ok This week was like watching paint dry but obviously by the data coming in the economy is in serious trouble. Today two FED governors officially called the current climate as recessionary which they have been trying not to say. The fact are we have lost 1.2 million jobs this year so far and companies are posting dismal results.
AIG which we bailed out with tax payers money is now asking for more. The big three automakers are saying they need $50 Billion out of the $700 Billion in the next 120 days or they will be under. The banks are just buying time before the next earnings season which looks like it will be worst than ever.
The economy is toasted here as it has been raped by the abusers who leave us holding the bag and want us to pay for their mismanagement. How ironic is this, that capitalism is begging for socialization, hollywood could not have made a better flick :)

Next week we are going to test S&P 885 for sure, which is 55-60 point below. Over the weekend I will send out the exact points to watch but here is a list of stuff to trade if we cycle lower next week, which I think we will:

GOOG short:
TM short:
GS short look like it will hit my $75 again and heading to $50:
Citibank heading towards my $7 price very very soon.
FSLR looks like it want lower.

I will update over the weekend for sure with some option plays.

Job numbers out

Worst than expected 250k losses. the rate is up to 6.5% the biggest rate in 15 years.

Job Numbers

Job numbers will be out in 45 minutes. It looks like it is going to be a bad one but the futures are up. Currently we are alittle oversold from the last two days of selling, so we might shake off the bad news later and grind up but I am not putting much faith in this crazy market.

Anyone wants a Job???

The market rose last week and Monday/Tuesday on Fantasy Thinking. Which, in layman's terms is HOPE. The fantasy that the Fed's moves are loosening the credit markets, freeing up captial for lending to stimulate the economy. The fantasy that a new President, will be able to solve what until now is unsolvable. The fantasy that valuations are so compelling that even though the whole world is in the crapper, you should be buying because the market is "cheap", and the fantasy that the market is forward thinking, and therefore the economy will turn around eventually and so you should be buying now for the time when the turn happens.

The Madness is believing any or all of the above and acting on it. The Madness is the government continually finding reasons to bail out companies that are antiquated because "it's too big to fail". The Madness is listening to these "reports" that suddenly get released right before GM's earnings that say that if ONE of the big three car makers fails that it will basically ruin the economy to the point of no return, and cost $100 BILLION. The Madness is that I haven't heard anyone say who sponsored this "report" and I'm thinking there is a conflict of interest in there somewhere. The Madness is that we're bailing out homeowners that can't afford the standard of living they have. The Madness is that despite every evidence to the contrary, analysts, fund managers and investors refuse to accept the fact that the market is not just a little overpriced, that it is VASTLY overpriced, even at 8600, even at 7500 and even probably at 5000.

I am VERY empathetic to those amongst us that are struggling because I am in the same boat too. Most of us are struggling on some or many levels, there is a dark cloud hanging over a lot of things right now. I know that it is very un-PC to suggest that GM and FORD be allowed to fail and go bankrupt. There is, however, a very distinct conflict of interest when the government is deciding who gets taken care of, and who doesn't. I am going to start a company and employ thousands next week and ask for a bailout, so send your resumes to me!!!!Why should the people here have to go on unemployment while the government is going to bail out companies that can not possibly succeed. So, all they are doing is protecting the pension plans, and jobs that aren't necessary. It would be, in my opinion, much better for the government to extend unemployment benefits and in fact RAISE them dramatically so that there is a cost savings, rather than keeping companies going that will just bleed the taxpayers of everything they have, and thus extend this misery? Can you believe GM is losing 1 BILLION A MONTH! and they want the tax payers to pay for that!!!!. Just remember that when Enron went under, and LEH and others those people weren't remotely taken care of, they were let go and they let them lose everything in many cases. It's a problem when the government is just taking over everything on a whim, which is what's been happening clearly. Which is obviously SOCIALIZING the economy.

The sadness is the madness, and is the fantasy, because in my opinion most of what's being done will come back to haunt us, and it won't work - NONE OF IT. Yes, I am the grim reaper. Until the markets, companies, and people are allowed to succeed and fail organically again there will be no "bottom" in anything. It's frustrating. Look at everything they have thrown at the economy and at the markets and what good has it done? We are right off our multi-year lows and we show no sign of forming any kind of lasting bottom anywhere in sight. There is no rationale for anything being done, there hasn't been throughout this. That's part of why it's gotten worse, not better. The system is broken, and it needs to fail so that it can be reborn as something better and stronger. Nice rally last week, all those fools that rushed in to buy Monday and Tuesday this week are already SHOT. There needs to be a "time out" and a plan, but that's fantasy, madness and sadness on my part since it's just not happening and not likely to do so. Let's see what they do with GM. They can't possibly be ridiculous enough to give a $25 BIL loan to a company that is never going to recover. NEVER. You can point to history all you want, but as long as they have all those pensions on their books its just impossible for them to make enough to cover their nuts. Very sad.

I use to say people 401k's will be 201k as a joke but I think it will be 01k's soon. The markets are going to test those lows very soon and tomorrow job numbers might be the worst in over a decade so don't be surprised as it hasn't included the announced layoffs this week at Wells Fargo, Dell, Google, HP, Goldman Sachs (cutting 40%) and many more.

NICE

Nice call on GOOG and GS. Both look like they want much lower prices. Have those GOOG puts and SKF longs to ride out this decline. As I said last week, very strong trend of selling the election results.

What now

Now that the election is over I can say alittle something to the readers of my blog. I am 1000% an independent and the reason being is this. There is no possible way for a logical person to be totally liberal in everything in their life or to be 100% conservative in their lives, just completely ridiculous.
I have to say I was completely impressed by the classiness of both candidates post- election speeches. I also have to say and anyone can correct me, personally I have never seen this type of enthusiasm for a candidate in any country's election in my lifetime. Whether or not the substance ends up being there I think it fair to give someone who, at least on the surface, carries a message that in my opinion has been sorely lacking in this country for a very very long time. We tend to be hero worshippers, I think, in this country. We put celebrities, politicians, CEO's of big companies and others at times on pedal stools. We being a great big grandiose statement and a gross generalization. Yet, I've found it to be true. Many of us tend to compare our insides to others outsides and when you do that you always end up as a loser. Everyone has their own issues, imperfections and challenges, it's all relative.
The knock on O'Bama is and remains to his detractors that he is all style and no substance. Even I have said that, at times. And, that may yet turn out to be true, but this country is in dire need of HOPE and a change. One thing that I think happened after 9/11, at least in my view, is that fear became something that many 0f us lived with day to day. I certainly felt it at times. Fear does bad things to all animals, not just us humans. We become about survival, it's the old "flight or fright" mode. We start to look at things that are harmless as though they are out to "get us"

America was a country that was idolized and welcomed in most countries. Fear has helped create, in my opinion, a country that is loathed in places where we used to be greeted with open arms. Instead of talking softly and carrying a big stick, we've taken on the role of hitting things over the head before even talking. We rule by fear, instead of respect. Respect is earned through good deeds, honesty and openmindedness, and ethics. It's earned by speaking one's truth, and hearing what others have to say, even if we don't agree with it. The first amendment of this country is very powerful. Look at this blog, I write very inflamatory stuff at times. Without the first amendment I'd be arrested, or abused in some fashion because of some of the things I've written. People should not be judged by their words, but by their actions. I've heard many politicians talk about being centrist. They were going to work with both parties and while they may disagree about many things, they would walk away with respect and a better understanding. Until this financial crisis occurred I have never seen both parties actually work together. Crisis does that at times. So does fear. I guess perhaps that's the flip side of things. Can you imagine what it might be like if that was an everyday, or at least every year occurrence in government? Instead of thinking about the individual, it became about democracy. Instead of being a world leader based on how many weapons we have, we went back to being a world leader based on the merits of our actions as a whole. Maybe that's just plain naive, or perhaps some would view that as "whimpy". I think John McCain's speech was outstanding. I actually thought President Bush's short talk this morning was outstanding, and human.

To me, we're all in this together when it comes down to it. That's the other thing 9/11 teaches. Republican's, Dems, Libertarians, gays, straights, Jews, Christians, Muslims, agnostic's were all killed in that act of terror. Will O'bama be a bust? It's certainly possible, but he already has the respect of other nations. When was the last time other countries people's wore shirts with a US President's face on them? I do not agree with some of the things O'bama has stated he wants to do on his agenda, particularly economically. But, I do have a sense that at least he will TRY to live up to his promises, and in this day and age where politicians make promises that even they know they have no shot of keeping, that is pretty refreshing. The only thing we really own in this life is our own integrity. O'Bama isn't remotely perfect, and he's certainly got flaws and will be a flawed president because that's the nature of life, and the Presidency. You can't please everyone, but the guy won over 52% of the popular vote.
Perhaps fear itself in this case worked for him, in fact I am sure of it. He almost surely would not have won had the economy not been in such bad shape and were the USA still looked upon with reverence and respect throughout the world. Surely we are not, and we haven't been for a long while. I think we stooped to our enemies level, and in a way, perhaps lost our integrity. Wall Street is not going to be happy with O'Bama, and I'm happy about that, because the vast majority of people in this country have more important things to worry about then whether or not the Dow is up 500 or down 500 today, tomorrow, or whenever.

So while I am very critical and skeptical of politicians, I think the guy deserves a shot to prove that this country can return to the status I would read and watch about while growing up. If all the history books will have down after his service is that he is the first Black President, then in my eyes he is a failure. I hate to put faith in politicians but I do believe he will have alot more substance than many imagine because of his struggles which many might not understand. We're all in this crazy thing we call life together, and that includes the entire world, not just US. The markets today are back to reality. Folks, we are going to go a lot lower, and you know what? That's ok, and it'll lead to a realistic market eventually.

I hate to rant on about politics because it can be a touchy issue for some but I had to say something because it affects the market today. I think the vast majority of us believe the government has failed the American people and on so many levels what is in place now is just not working. It is, indeed, time for a change. Is this the right change? I guess we'll find out soon enough. I certainly hope so. Whether you voted for the Obama or not, I loved what John McCain said, he is our President. Let's keep an open mind and heart.


MARKETJEDI

1000 Magic Number

So we hit the magic 1000 number on the S&P today and ended 5 points above it. Tomorrow we either gap up huge into some resistance which would be a gift to short or we gap down huge on the possibility of a 2004 replay of the election.
Personally as I said, it doesn't matter to me who wins because the present problems can't be cured in a week and the news today of Google and Dell implementing hiring freezes and cutting work hours is testament of how weak this economy is.
It is going to take a lot of work to turn around this titanic ship economy and I am afraid that we are just at the beginning stages of the decline, so saying that I must reiterate my views of this being a bear market rally and not to be suckered into believe it is more than that. I spoke weeks ago of not being short because we are due for a rally and this is the rally I was speaking of! Now there is a strong feeling we sell the news on an Obama victory and head lower and that we rally hard if McCain wins. I believe either way we will move alittle higher but it will be very short lived, who knows maybe we get a huge gap up tomorrow and that might be all the market wrote.
One thing I know personally, I am glad the elections are over so I dont have to hear crap about taxes and personal sound bites by politicians who feed on the weak minded of us, but that's the world we live in.

I see alot of stuff setting up here so GET READY!!!!!


MARKETJEDI

S&P 1000

Well S&P 100 right here mid day of the election. Market has good upside momentum here and I would not be surprised if we hit that 1053 number I have been talking about. Dow 9600 here is heading into the bottom of the upside range potential.

Nothing much going on and I expect tomorrow and thursday to be true test of the markets. I have a feeling next week we will go down but I am not jumping on that wagon till I see this play out.


MARKETJEDI

Much to do about nothing

Well tomorrow America votes on their new leader for the next four yearS. Personally I dont care who wins as politics in this nation is all about the people who have the money and the lobbyists and not for the regular guy. The feed the little guy crap only when it is election time because the truth is the little guy is the one who vote the politicians in.
Wall street is already factoring an Obama victory and even CNBC which is by far for the Republicans are talking tonight about who Obama will pick as his Secretary of State and Treasury. No matter what, the stock market will have a rough time in the coming years and it is not contributed to whichever party will win tomorrow but contributed to a system of capitalism which is broken because of the abuses from thieves and selfish men.
The market looks higher here! How far it will go is the real question. I think 9800-10300 should be the top on this swing before we head lower. I just can't see how the market will fight the head winds of the recession which might be deep and long.
S&P 1023 and then 1050 are spots I am looking for to begin some shorts positions, which I think might happen this week. If we do get a rally wednesday or thursday it is a good chance we fade it hard so be careful if you are long.
I hope I am wrong and we blast to 13000 on the DOW and we can sucker in some more bulls but I dont see it happening as the fact is still that the market is so overvalued that there is no shot we wont see lower prices.


I will be back on Wednesday as I dont think we will have much action tomorrow.


MARKETJEDI

Monday

Don't expect much to happen today with the election tomorrow. I will update if I do see anything

Weekend Thoughts

Hey folks hope you had a frightening Halloween just like the markets we have been having. As most of you have been reading on the blog I have been saying to lighten up on shorts because I believe we would soon see a bounce. Right now we are in bounce mode from extremely oversold conditions. There is a good shot we see 1060 area on the S&P and 10200 on the DOW, especially as we go into traditionally a bullish period of November and December.
One huge note on this upside move is the VOLUME. Volume has been anemic and must be watched carefully when we get a down day. Friday's action was very bullish as all pullback were bought and we grinded higher all day. Next week should be very bullish, with the only unknown being the election results which in my opinion is pricing in an Obama victory.


Levels to watch on the upside are 1000, 1020, 1052 on the S&P.
9500, 9875, 10200 on the DOW.


Let's see how far they want to push us and I am giving you a freebie here and now. BUY SKF on any trade in the $90's area. Also GOOGLE short on a push to $425 area, even though it looks very weak here even with the market bouncing.


I think this will set up nicely for traders here soon. I hope I am right!!



MARKETJEDI