Finally back home and ready to rumble. It is sure very hard to try and analyze stuff when you are not all together on top of it, so please allow me some time this weekend to get abreast of what is going on in the markets.
Yesterday the equity markets experienced hard downside price action. Range was an impressive 31.50 point for the S&P on HUGE volume day.
Has the "Great Bear" returned? Price action took out the last remaining level of support (1034.25) that would allow any bullish interpretation.
The preponderance of evidence suggests that we have topped. Is it THE top? That's yet to be determined, but I believe the odds are greater than 50% that we may have entered the next phase of this market.
I have replaced my count with the alternate scenario. This implies structure completed minor C of intermediate (Y) of primary [B] at the 1075.75 H.
Yes, it's far from that perfect idealized Elliott Wave structure, but it is what it is.
I am showing a 120 minute pit session chart because after the 1065.75 H it is a mess trying to get a clean count. Sub-minuette i finishing at the 1053.25 L is just a guess. It's more likely that it actually ended at the 1041.50 L.
The daily projection comes in about 1022. At a minimum, there should be some type of reaction once fulfilled.
The daily 50sma is currently at 1016.25, another level worthy of our attention.
Sub degree targets include (iii) = 161.8% of (i) at 1002.25, and the 261.8% projection of (i) at 962.50.
Watch the base channel boundary line. This could be a support level.
I have no choice but to be near-term bearish. There is just no bullish alternative. If your a perma bull, the best you can hope is that this is an intermediate degree (X) wave unfolding.
