1430

1430 was the S&P year end target by JPMORGAN and Goldman for 2012.
We got 5 hours to get there !!!!!!!

Mercy!!

I guess we are at the mercy of these hard headed politicians-
Bye Bye market- geez- when will this end!

The Rest of year

Hope that everyone had a peaceful and warm holiday. News out this morning on the retail front is that this has been the weakest holiday season since 2008. Funny enough Monday I went to the mall for a household gift and text my wife and said the mall is empty! that should have told me that sales weren't brisk at the brick and mortar. I expect January and February retailers will have huge sales to balance their lack luster holiday sales.
Since volume has been extremely low the last couple of weeks, I don't expect much to go on here till the New Year as we have the fiscal Cliff issue dealing with. Now we could get a huge spike if some news comes out but I am thinking non of the market movers are doing anything till be get some resolution on taxes.
In the meantime have a peaceful and spiritual New Year.

WOWOWOWOWOW

DOW Futures was down 500 points- Fiscal cliff news

Bonds

Bonds negative here with oil- that was writing on the wall the last two trading days-

Expect more downside

GOLD

As mentioned yesterday I would not be in Gold and Bonds. Gold is down $30 almost 2% today

Upward

Well I guess I got stopped out of this move I am sitting on last friday. As I was expecting while long the QQQ an upward tick in the market solely based on the Fiscal cliff talks would get a compromise and that we were so close the the 78 retracement I believe new highs were in the making.
Since the week has started we have had two trend days up back to back which is extremely rare and more than likely can be contributed to the Fiscal Cliff talks. Lets see what shakes but as of now we are news driven mode again. I would not be long bonds or gold here but who really knows what the politicians will finally agree to.

How Volkswagen is run like no other car company

Any efficiency expert would tell you that VW is too vertically integrated, has too much overlap and duplication, and has way too many brands. VW, meanwhile, keeps growing bigger, stronger and more profitable.
The give-away that Volkswagen Group is run differently from every other car company lies with the fact that it employs a staggering 549,300 people globally. Fortune magazine lists it as the eighth largest employer in the world, behind giants such as Walmart and the Chinese post office. VW has almost as many full-time employees as General Motors (213,000), Ford (164,000) and Fiat-Chrysler (197,000) put together. While those three behemoths collectively built 19 million vehicles last year, VW "only" built 8.5 million.
Efficiency experts will tell you that on an employee-per-vehicle basis, Volkswagen looks hopelessly inefficient. Financial analysts will tell you that the company woefully trails its competitors on a revenue-per-employee basis. But VW will tell you that it makes more money than any other automaker – by far.
While VW's stated goal is to become the world's largest car company by 2018, it's already there if you measure it by revenue and profits. Its revenue of $200 billion is greater than every other OEM. Last year's operating profit of $14 billion is the kind of performance you expect from Big Oil companies, not automakers.
Last year's operating profit of $14 billion is the kind of performance you expect from Big Oil companies, not automakers.
How can this be possible? How can VW look so uncompetitive from a productivity standpoint, yet out-earn all of its competitors?
Ah, that's the magic of VW's corporate structure. While business schools teach future MBAs that centralized operations can cut cost by eliminating overlapping work and duplication, VW maintains strongly decentralized operations with lots of overlap. While business schools preach the benefits of outsourcing to cut cost, VW is very vertically integrated.
Anytime a car company buys a component from a supplier, that supplier has to charge a profit. If an automaker can make those components in-house, it gets to keep that profit. VW is building a lot of components in-house.
To dominate you need multiple brands, and VW has more than anyone else.
If an automaker truly wants to dominate the market, it has to accept a certain amount of overlap and duplication. It just goes with the territory. To dominate you need multiple brands, and VW has more than anyone else, which admittedly overlap at the edges. But to VW they are more than just brands.
All of VW's brands (VW, Audi, Seat, Skoda, Bentley, Lamborghini, Ducati, Porsche, Bugatti, MAN, Scania, and VW Commercial) are treated as stand-alone companies. They have their own boards of directors, their own profit & loss statements, and their own annual reports. They even have their own separate design, engineering and manufacturing facilities. Yes, they do share some platforms and powertrains and purchasing, but other than that they're on their own.
Back when GM was great, it too was a holding company that owned nine stand-alone car companies.
Back when GM was great, it too was a holding company that owned nine stand-alone car companies (Chevrolet, Pontiac, Buick, Cadillac, Oldsmobile, GMC, Opel, Vauxhall, Holden). In the 1960s GM had over 700,000 employees, was very vertically integrated, and was the most profitable corporation in the world.
GM's vaunted president and chairman, Alfred Sloan, who led the company from 1923 to 1956, always fought against centralized operations. He kept GM very decentralized until the day he retired. Then the MBAs got ahold of it. In the 1960s they started implementing "efficiencies" and "synergies" and it's been downhill ever since. Their top-down, command-and-control system of management simply choked the company. It still does.
Meanwhile, VW is operating right out of the Sloan handbook. And its corporate structure gives it an enormous competitive advantage. No matter how much VW's competitors try to rationalize, cut cost, outsource, or partner up with one another, they're never going to overcome VW's advantage. I wonder how many of VW's competitors are even aware of what they're up against.

Good out

Good out of longs on wednesday as yesterday proved to be very weak. Today before open we are looking at AAPL being crushed!
Should be interested to see if we round out a bounce today or not

Out all longs

Out all longs before the FED QE4 announcement today. Seem it was a non event but perception is everything is the upcoming days. Today was also a very light volume day and I am wondering if the fiscal cliff news is overshadowing the QE4 news.
Let's be honest here QE1,QE2,QE3 didn't do much but artificially inflate prices in the marketplace. We are still in an environment of declining margins, high employment and massive government debt and non the the QE plans help alleviate those top issues.

I don't think big money will do much till the new year as it is very dangerous to take any positions here more than a short trade.

QQQ-Update

Finally up nicely from call mid last week- We have resistance up here today on the S&P but I am staying long for now

Anaemic Volume

Today the market was ASLEEP!!!
The volume was 40% lower than the 10 days average and today was the lowest volume day of the year for options!
I guess we are on another pause till this fiscal cliff passes!! We thought after the election we would be on the track again but I guess not. Nothing the small guy can do till the big money get back in the market!

AAPL

AAPL is gaping down  just over 9 points to start today's session.  This will bring it into the 530 gap area from 11/19/12. 527.68 will fill the lap from that day.  A key Fibonacci retracement sits just below at they 524.50 level.

Is AAPL a SCREAMING BUY down here?  Who knows! 

AAPL was crushed yesterday, and was hit Tuesday as well, so the stock is pretty short term oversold and getting a ton of negative chatter (for example: the run is over for good; it will never see the highs again; it's a broken stock; blah blah blah).  I have no idea if this is the case, but I do know that only a few months ago, it was the super stock and those same people were saying how it would be at 1000 by Christmas.  My point?  Don't listen to the crap out there, trade the charts.

Even if you aren't an intra-day trader, don't trade stocks, or you are not comfortable with trading a stock like AAPL due to price and/or volatility, there are still lessons to be learned watching how it trades around these Key Decision Areas such as the levels mentioned above.

Long-

Building a small long position on the QQQ here-